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☆ 'Way too early' to declare victory over inflation, says ECB's Nagel
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Joachim Nagel, President of Germany's federal reserve Bundesbank addresses the media during the bank's annual news conference in Frankfurt, Germany March 1, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNICOSIA, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation will carry on declining in the months ahead but at a slower pace, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel was quoted as telling Cypriot newspaper Kathimerini on Sunday. "We have not yet won the fight against inflation," said Nagel, who visited Cyprus last week. "Add in a scenario where an escalation of geopolitical tensions could imply higher inflation and it becomes clear that it would be way too early to declare victory over high inflation rates," said Nagel, an influential voice on the ECB's rate setting Governing Council. "All in all, I expect inflation to carry on declining, but at a slower pace and with possible bumps along the way," Nagel said.

Persons: Joachim Nagel, Kai Pfaffenbach, Nagel, " Nagel, Michele Kambas, David Goodman Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Cypriot, Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Rights NICOSIA, Cyprus

☆ ECB raises minimum capital requirements for Spanish banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Heiko Becker/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsMADRID, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank has raised the minimum capital requirements for Spanish lenders BBVA (BBVA.MC), Caixabank (CABK.MC), Sabadell (SABE.MC) and Bankinter (BKT.MC) as part of a supervisory review and evaluation process (SREP). The process provides an overall assessment of the challenges that face significant institutions, together with the corresponding solvency requirements and other supervisory measures that banks are expected to comply with for the year ahead. BBVA's capital threshold was also raised to 9.09% for next year from 8.72%. For Unicaja (UNI.MC), the supervisor however maintained its solvency threshold for 2024 unchanged at 8.27% compared to 2023.

Persons: Heiko Becker, Caixabank, Jesús, Emma Pinedo, Sharon Singleton Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Rights, BBVA, ECB, Spain's Santander, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Sabadell

☆ Europe stocks head for higher open as rally continues into December
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European markets are set to open higher Friday after closing out their best month since January amid a global rally in stocks and bonds. The Stoxx 600 index gained 6.45% in November, according to LSEG data, as equities pivoted from three straight monthly losses. Major bourses ended on an upbeat note after flash data estimated euro zone inflation has now fallen to 2.4%, down from 2.9% in October and significantly lower than expected. Cooling U.S. inflation and signs of continued economic resilience have also sent U.S. stocks and bonds on a tear. However, Saudi Arabia extended its 1 million barrel per day voluntary cut into the first quarter, and other members announced their own reductions.

Persons: Major bourses Organizations: European Central Bank, Cooling, Federal Reserve, Organization of, Petroleum Locations: OPEC, Saudi Arabia

☆ Morning Bid: Markets wary Powell may undermine rate-cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. The disconnect between financial markets and central banks has only deepened as central banks push back against talk of rate cuts while markets take in the relatively more benign inflation data of recent weeks. That helped to embolden markets to take on rate-cut bets. Markets are now pricing in a 46% chance of the central bank cutting rates in March, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Speakers: Bank of England MPC member Megan Greene, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Ankur Banerjee, Christopher Waller, Powell, Elon Musk, Megan Greene, Christine Lagarde, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Ankur, Fed, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Europe, Asia, France, UK, Germany, Singapore

☆ Morning Bid: Powell's final shot to shape markets before December Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. Markets are now fully pricing a rate cut by the May meeting with almost a 50% chance they move in March, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Reuters GraphicsThe 10-year yield is down around 15 basis points and on Thursday hit its lowest level in 2-1/2 months at 4.247%. On Wednesday, the dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, touched its lowest level since Aug. 11 and dropped over 3% last month, its worst month in a year. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Samuel Indyk, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Christopher Waller, Europe's, Fed's, Fed's Cook, ECB's, Fitch, Toby Chopra Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Spelman College, Reuters, COVID, P Global, PMI, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, France, Greece, Ireland, DBRS, Germany, Spain

☆ New party to face old guard in Bhutan's fourth free vote
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Gopal Sharma | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The People's Democratic Party (PDP) received the highest number of votes in the preliminary round of the election held on Thursday, followed by the Bhutan Tendrel Party (BTP), the ECB said. Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa (DNT), the party headed by outgoing Prime Minister Lotay Tshering, finished fourth, the ECB vote counts showed. PDP, headed by former Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay, is a liberal group founded in 2007, which had formed the government in Bhutan between 2013 and 2018. They also share similar views on several other issues such as the development of hydroelectric power, agricultural growth, and unemployment. Majority-Buddhist Bhutan, which is roughly the size of Switzerland, has deep economic and trade relations with its southern neighbour, India, which is its biggest donor.

Persons: Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, Jetsun Pema, Britain's King Charles, Henry Nicholls, Nyamrup, Lotay Tshering, Tshering Tobgay, Pema Chewang, Gopal Sharma, Alex Richardson Organizations: Buckingham, REUTERS, Bhutan, Democratic Party, Bhutan Tendrel Party, ECB, Buddhist, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, China, India, Bhutan, Buddhist Bhutan, Switzerland

☆ Allianz economist explains why ECB cuts will not come until late 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAllianz economist explains why ECB cuts will not come until late 2024Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Allianz, shares his projections on the outlook for the European economy and the ECB's monetary policy path.

Persons: Ludovic Subran Organizations: Allianz

Yet labour markets are softening, the euro zone faces recession and China's property sector is in crisis. Here's what some closely-watched market indicators say about global recession risks:1/ AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM? Britain's economy avoided the start of a recession in the third quarter but still failed to grow. Economists broadly expect the global economy to slow next year but avoid a recession. If supply shocks resulting from the Israel-Hamas war become severe enough to push Brent crude to $150, a level it has never breached, a "mild and fleeting" global recession could result, Oxford Economics reckons.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Guy Miller, COVID, Zurich Insurance's Miller, Torsten Slok, Austria's, David Katimbo, We've, Brent, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Zurich Insurance, Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal Reserve, ECB, Apollo Global Management, P, Sweden's SBB, HK, Bank of England, Business insolvencies, EdenTree Investment Management, Oxford Economics reckons, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, China, Zurich, England, Wales, Europe, Israel

It's a far cry from the peak of 10.6% in October 2022 as an energy crisis left Europe's households and businesses struggling to make ends meet. The new figure is close to the European Central Bank's inflation target of 2% following a rapid series of interest rate hikes dating to summer 2022. Energy prices plunged 11.5% from November 2022. Meanwhile, the larger eurozone economy has stalled this year, even shrinking 0.1% in the July-to-September quarter, according to Eurostat. ___This story has been corrected to show that the eurozone economy shrank 0.1% in the third quarter, not grew by that amount.

Persons: ”, Andrew Kenningham, Christine Lagarde, ” Lagarde, That's, upended, ” Carsten Brzeski Organizations: Eurostat, ECB, Capital Economics, Energy, OECD, ING Locations: Europe, Germany, Europe's, Russia, Moscow, Ukraine

☆ November’s rally has set the 60/40 portfolio on track for its best month since 2020
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors who held a balanced portfolio and just let it ride through November are about to be handsomely rewarded: The 60/40 portfolio is cruising to its best month in three years. That's just short of the 7.5% advance in November 2020, when progress on Covid vaccines heralded an economic reopening. AOR YTD line YTD performance for iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF (AOR) First, bond yields cooled substantially in November. Bond yields decline when bond prices rise, so cooling rates have lifted prices for fixed income allocations. A recovery in both asset classes has since lifted the AOR to a total return of 10.8% for 2023, showing that staying the course can pay off.

Persons: That's, Henry Allen, they've, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Fed, ECB Locations: Wednesday's

For much of this year central banks have successfully pushed back against rate cut bets. "I believe the Fed will act rationally and begin to cut rates by the end of next year, but we can't rule out the scenario that the Fed is not going to cut rates and just let the ramifications of recession do what they do." Reuters GraphicsSHIFT NEARINGMarkets now fully price in a 25 basis point U.S. rate cut in May, having seen a 65% chance earlier this week. "There are now committee members in all three (banks) willing to talk about rate cuts next year," said Chris Jeffery, head of rates and inflation strategy at LGIM. "The ECB should begin to ease policy as soon as April 2024, with risks that a more sinister downturn in growth could warrant a rate cut as soon as March," he said.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, ramping, It's, Nate Thooft, Goldman, Christopher Waller, Huw Pill, Yannis Stournaras, Chris Jeffery, we'd, Dario Perkins, Simon Harvey, Yoruk, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Roberston, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebasvili, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Dhara Ranasinghe, Catherine Evans Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Manulife Investment Management, Treasury, Graphics, Bank of England, Deutsche, Lombard, Traders, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: Washington, United States, Europe, Goldman Sachs, Greek, Amsterdam, London

☆ Intesa's CET1 requirement under SREP process rises to 9.32%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Intesa San Paolo bank headquaters is seen in Turin, Italy, November 7, 2018. The ECB had set the same threshold at 8.88% for the current year. The new requirement kicks in on Jan. 1, 2024. The increase to 2023 stems mostly from a buffer that 'Other Systemically Important Institutions' (O-SII) are due to hold, which stands at 1.25% for 2024 versus 0.75% in 2023. The countercyclical buffer requirement also inched up slightly to 0.23% from 0.16%, Intesa said.

Persons: headquaters, Stefano Rellandini, Intesa, Valentina Za, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Paolo, Turin, Italy

☆ Euro zone inflation sinks to 2.4%, below expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

(Photo by Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images)Annual inflation in the euro zone cooled to 2.4% in November from 2.9% in October, flash figures showed Thursday. Inflation in the euro zone's largest economies, Germany and France, has dropped to 2.3% and 3.8%, respectively. ECB officials have repeatedly stressed that it is too early to declare victory over price rises in the 20-member euro zone bloc, as they monitor potential pressures from wage increases and energy markets. Separate data released by statistics agency Eurostat on Thursday showed that unemployment in the euro area remained at a record low of 6.5% in October, despite a contraction in the euro zone economy in the third quarter. "For the ECB, signs of an imminent victory on inflation are mounting," Bert Colijn, senior euro zone economist at ING, said in a note, adding that some of the impact from existing monetary tightening was yet to be felt.

Persons: Ying Tang, —, Mathieu Savary, Bert Colijn Organizations: Aachen, Getty, Reuters, European Central Bank, Energy, ECB, BCA Research, Eurostat, ING Locations: Aachen, Germany, France, European

"It is hard to understand how the ECB ended up buying the bonds of property companies, while at the same time warning of the risks of property price inflation," former ECB chief economist Otmar Issing told Reuters. But data this week shows the central bank still owned the two bonds issued by SBB as of Nov. 24. While Sweden is not in the euro zone, SBB issued the debt bought by the ECB in neighbouring Finland, which is. Alongside the SBB bonds, the ECB also hoovered up the debt of other property companies which have since hit problems, including Sweden's Heimstaden. The ECB also gobbled up many German real estate bonds, including 39 issued by Vonovia, which has been selling property to cut debt.

Persons: Otmar Issing, Daniel Gros, Gros, Sweden's, Heimstaden, it's, Alexander Smith Organizations: SBB, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, Research, Institute, European, Bocconi University, Fitch, Vonovia, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Europe, Germany, Sweden, Milan, Swedish, Finland

☆ Morning Bid: Treasuries on cusp of best month since 2008
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Let's start with Treasuries because, if this were sports, we'd be calling it a comeback for the ages. Now, with some encouraging hints from Fed officials, 10-year notes are poised to celebrate their best month since the 2008 global crash, with yields down 61 basis points for November so far. Yields on two-year paper are down 31 bps just this week, the steepest drop since the U.S. mini-banking crisis in March. The European Union has inflation data of its own later on Thursday and analysts suspect the risks are for a downside surprise following subdued readings from Germany and Spain. The dollar index looks set for its worst month since November last year, with a loss so far of 3.7%.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Wayne Cole, Let's, we'd, Governor Waller, dovishness, Powell, Williams, Lagarde, Greene, Governor Bunge, Edmund Klamann Organizations: U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, Fed New, European Union, China PMI, BoE Monetary, CPI, PPI, Chicago PMI, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Wayne, U.S, Germany, Spain, China, BoE, EU, Chicago

☆ Goldilocks meets Santa as global stocks power to best month in three years
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

MSCI's world stock index (.MIWO00000PUS) is set to close the month up around 9%, its best performance since November 2020, when markets cheered the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines. Global bond prices have soared, with an ICE BofA index of global investment-grade bonds in major markets set to return 3.4% in November, the best month on record going back to 1997. Global growth stocks in high-tech sectors are up 11% (.dMIWO0000GNUS) while value stocks, which are mainly in cyclical industries and offer high dividends, have gained 6.5% (.dMIWO0000VNUS). And a cloudier outlook for stocks suggests a divergence could open up between again between stocks and bonds. The broader global index is set to return 1.6% for the year.

Persons: Joshua Roberts, That's, bode, Altaf Kassam, Wall, We've, Guy Miller, Joost Van Leenders, Van Lanschot Kempen, Van Leenders, Kassam, Naomi Rovnick, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Christina Fincher Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, State Street Global Advisors, Traders, Fed, Insurance Group, Equity, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, COVID, U.S

☆ Euro zone inflation tumble pits ECB against markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Inflation has dropped quickly towards the ECB's 2% target from levels above 10% just a year ago but policymakers have cautioned against excessive optimism. The rapid inflation slowdown puts the euro zone central bank and investors on a collision course as the two appear to see greatly different paths ahead, both for consumer prices and ECB interest rates. "And if the recent trends in inflation and growth continue then 2024 will be the year when the ECB implements a pirouette in monetary policy." "The market is therefore right to start looking at rate cuts for 2024. Some economists argue that modelling current inflation is exceptionally difficult because corporate profits are the main driver, not wages as in normal bouts of rapid inflation.

Persons: Sarah Meyssonnier, Kamil Kovar, Yannis Stournaras, Fabio Panetta, Panetta, Christine Lagarde's, Bert Colijn, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, ECB, Moody's, Bank of Italy, ING, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, FRANKFURT

☆ Euro zone inflation dents euro, dollar rises from three-month low
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A New Zealand dollar coin sits atop a United States one dollar bill in this photo illustration taken on March 11, 2016. Consumer price growth in the 20 nations that share the euro currency dropped to 2.4% in November from 2.9% in October, well below expectations for a fall to 2.7%. The euro dropped as much as 0.5% against the dollar to $1.0910. The Japanese currency has firmed almost 3% against the dollar in November and is on course for its strongest month this year. Sterling was last at $1.2646, down 0.39% on the day, while the Australian dollar fell 0.1% to $0.6610.

Persons: David Gray, Matthew Landon, disinflation, Landon, ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta, Mohamad Al, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Christopher Wong, Toyoaki Nakamura, Sterling, It's, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill, Miral Fahmy, Susan Fenton Organizations: New Zealand, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Morgan Private Bank, ECB, ECB policymaker, Danske Bank, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: States, Europe, U.S, London, Singapore

☆ Morning Bid: November bids adieu with inflation data, OPEC
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. With signs of turn emerging in Federal Reserve policy guidance and October PCE inflation readings set to encourage that later in the day, rate cut fever was in full flow across the Atlantic too. Headline annual inflation in the bloc fell as low as 2.4% - within arm's length of the ECB's 2% target. Later on Thursday, U.S. PCE inflation for the prior month is pencilled to fall 3.0% from 3.4% - with a core also ebbing to 3.5%. "Monetary policy is in a good place," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday, echoing comments from previously hawkish Fed governor Christopher Waller the previous day.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, policymaker Fabio Panetta, Loretta Mester, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Christine Lagarde, Megan Greene, Kroger, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of Italy, policymaker, U.S ., ECB, Cleveland Fed, Wall, OPEC, Dallas Fed, PMI, York Federal, Bank of England, Academy Sports, Rock Biotech, Titan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Canada, Vienna, Automotive, Duluth, BOS, Jan

☆ Market vulnerabilities and a possible U.S. recession: Strategists give their cautious predictions for 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The market is now largely pricing a peak at the current Fed funds target range of 5.25-5.5%, with interest rate cuts to come next year. watch now"At the outer edges of the economy there is obvious stress that is likely to spread in 2024 with rates at these levels. So it's easy to see how bad levered investments could have been made that would be vulnerable to this higher rate regime." Recession risk 'delayed rather than diminished' In a roundtable event on Tuesday, JPMorgan Asset Management strategists echoed this note of caution, claiming that the risk of a U.S. recession was "delayed rather than diminished" as the impact of higher rates feeds through into the economy. "I think the the key conclusion here is that interest rates do still bite, it's just taking longer this time around," she said.

Persons: Victor J, Jim Reid, David Folkerts, Landau, Reid, Folkerts, GSAM, Karen Ward, it's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Blue, Bloomberg, Getty, Monetary, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Global Economics, Research, Silicon Valley Bank, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, European Central Bank, Fed, ECB, JPMorgan, Management Locations: New York, Washington, U.S, Canada, Brazil, Chile, Hungary, Mexico, Peru, Poland

☆ Bhutan Votes in Preliminary Round of National Elections
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Nov. | At P.M. | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +1 min

By Gopal SharmaKATHMANDU (Reuters) - Bhutan began voting on Thursday in the preliminary round of national elections to choose two political parties that will contest the fourth free vote since democracy was established in the Himalayan kingdom 15 years ago. Nestled between China and India, Bhutan is known for its Gross National Happiness (GNH) index, an economic gauge that takes into account factors normally ignored by gross domestic product measures, like recreation and emotional well-being. Nearly half a million of the country’s fewer than 800,000 people are eligible to vote for the five political parties that are in the fray. The two parties that win the highest number of votes will qualify for the final round of the election to the 47-member National Assembly, set to take place on Jan. 9. Analysts say all five political parties have vowed to boost the $3 billion economy that is dependent on aid and tourism.

Persons: Gopal Sharma, “, ”, Karma, Stephen Coates Organizations: National Assembly, Bhutan, Analysts Locations: Gopal Sharma KATHMANDU, Bhutan, China, India, Punakha, Thimphu, Switzerland

☆ ECB should not set policy based on profit concerns: de Guindos
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

European Central Bank (ECB) Vice-President Luis de Guindos arrives at the Presidential Palace for a meeting with Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides in Nicosia, Cyprus, October 4, 2023. REUTERS/Yiannis Kourtoglou/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsFRANKFURT, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank should not set policy based on consideration about its own profitability or the profits earned by banks, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said in a newspaper interview, weighing in on a disagreement between policymakers. Some ECB governors are keen to increase unremunerated minimum reserve requirements for lenders in part to lower the losses the central bank is set to make on having to pay record high rates on excess liquidity. "I understand that remuneration of reserves is important for some banks, but monetary policy shouldn’t be driven by the financial position of banks or the profits of the central banks," de Guindos told Belgian newspapers De Standaard and La Libre Belgique in an interview. Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Andrew HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Luis de Guindos, Nikos Christodoulides, Yiannis, de Guindos, Balazs Koranyi, Andrew Heavens Organizations: European Central Bank, Cyprus, REUTERS, Rights, ECB, La Libre Belgique, Thomson Locations: Nicosia, Cyprus, Belgian, La

☆ AI threatens wages, not jobs - so far, ECB paper finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

AI (Artificial Intelligence) letters are placed on computer motherboard in this illustration taken, June 23, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration//File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsFRANKFURT, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence could reduce wages, but so far is creating, not destroying jobs, especially for the young and highly-skilled, research published by the European Central Bank showed on Tuesday. Firms have invested heavily in artificial intelligence, or AI, leaving economists striving to understand the impact on the labour market and driving fears among the wider public for the future of their jobs. Most of their impact on employment and wages – and therefore on growth and equality – has yet to be seen." The findings were in contrast to previous "technology waves," it said, when computerisation decreased "the relative share of employment of medium-skilled workers, resulting in "polarisation".

Persons: Dado Ruvic, –, Balazs Koranyi, Barbara Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson

☆ ECB could take bigger role in supervising shadow banks, Enria says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

European Union (EU) flags fly in front of the headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, July 8, 2020. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsFRANKFURT, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank may need to take on a bigger role in supervising shadow banks as they are now bigger than conventional lenders and may be sitting on elevated risk, the outgoing head of the ECB's supervision arm told European newspapers. "These are different animals to banks, so we shouldn’t expect to supervise them in the same way as we supervise banks." Taking on oversight of shadow banks would require legislative changes, a time consuming process even under the best of circumstances, and requiring broad political agreement. But some have argued that such a change could ease liquidity stress, particularly if shadow banks gained access to the ECB lending operations.

Persons: Ralph Orlowski, Andrea Enria, Expansión, Enria, Balazs Koranyi, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Union, European Central Bank, REUTERS, Rights, prudential, ECB, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany

☆ Morning Bid: Treasuries gobbled up, oil braces for OPEC
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. Benchmark Treasury yields fell back more than 10 basis points to 4.37% after a total of $109 billion of 2 and 5-year notes hit the Street on Monday without much disruption. Another weak U.S. housing readout, with sub-forecast new home sales last month, perhaps flattered the post-auction moves. That's likely a mixed blessing for Federal Reserve watchers - the continued buoyancy of consumption but with increasing price discrimination. Fed futures priced about 85bps of rate cuts through next year, starting in June, though many major banks expect even more.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, That's, Hong, Louis, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr, Austan Goolsbee, Christine Lagarde, Philip Lane, Dave Ramsden, BoE, Jonathan Haskel, Hewlett Packard, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasuries, Treasury, Adobe Digital, Federal Reserve, Louis Fed, U.S . Treasury, Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed, . Treasury, Chicago Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of England, Citi Trends, Fluence Energy, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Asia, Europe, United States, China, New York, St, Uxin, Canaan, Elbit

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