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☆ Inflation to dog world economy next year, postponing rate cuts: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Despite broad success in bringing inflation down from its highs - the easier bit - prices are still rising faster than most central banks would prefer and hitting their inflation targets is likely to be tough. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which often leads the interest rate cycle, was also forecast to wait until July-September 2024 before cutting. The majority backing no cuts until the second half of 2024 has also grown stronger for the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Indonesia and the Reserve Bank of India. Even the Bank of Japan, the outlier sticking to ultra-loose policy through this entire round of inflation, is now expected to abandon negative interest rates next year. Crucially, most economists agree the first easing steps will not be the beginning of a rapid series of cuts.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Christine Lagarde, Douglas Porter, it's, Nathan Sheets, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Fed, BMO, Reserve Bank of New, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank, Reserve Bank of India, Bank of Japan, Citi, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, BENGALURU, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank Indonesia, Bengaluru, Buenos Aires, Cairo, Istanbul, Johannesburg, London, Shanghai, Tokyo

☆ Dollar gains after US consumer prices rise more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The dollar rose sharply on Thursday after U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in September, lifted by an elevated cost of rent that raised the prospect of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates high for some time. The consumer price index increased 0.4% last month, with a 0.6% jump in the cost of shelter accounting for more than half of the rise. The dollar rose more than 1% against sterling, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Owners' equivalent rent, a measure of the amount homeowners would pay to rent or would earn from renting their property, rose even though non-official sources show a decline in rental prices. Thursday's CPI release came after Wednesday's mixed report on U.S. producer prices, and minutes from the Fed's September meeting.

Persons: Douglas Porter, Bipan Rai, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, BoE, Wednesday's, Herbert Lash, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Emelia Sithole, Mark Potter, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, BMO Capital Markets, Reuters, New, CIBC Capital Markets, Fed, Bank of England, CPI, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Oakville, Canada, New Zealand, North America, Toronto, New York, London, Bengaluru, Singapore

☆ TSX tumbles to near seven-month low as commodity-linked stocks fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Siddarth S | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Art Deco facade of the original Toronto Stock Exchange building is seen on Bay Street in Toronto, Ontario, Canada January 23, 2019. Rate-sensitive utilities (.GSPTTUT) fell nearly 3%, leading declines amid a dramatic run-up in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields that hit 16-year highs. "U.S. Treasury yields continue to march higher and that's just crushing the dividend-paying stocks like utilities in Canada," said Douglas Porter, chief economist of BMO Capital Markets. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted 47.5 last month, from 48.0 in August. Reporting by Siddarth S in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber and Shweta AgarwalOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Chris Helgren, Douglas Porter, Eric Provost, Siddarth, Shailesh Kuber, Shweta Agarwal Organizations: Toronto Stock Exchange, REUTERS, TSX, Treasury, Toronto Stock, Materials, Brent, U.S . West Texas, BMO Capital Markets, Data, P Global Canada Manufacturing, Laurentian Bank, Thomson Locations: Toronto , Ontario, Canada, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Even as Bank of Canada moves to sidelines, consumers not ready to splurge
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Molly Cone | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TORONTO, March 22 (Reuters) - When the Bank of Canada became the first major global central bank this month to pause raising interest rates after its most aggressive tightening campaign in history, indebted consumers heaved a sigh of relief. Consumers' reluctance to spend could challenge an economy facing headwinds from a record pace of interest rate hikes as retail spending accounts for about 5% of Canada's Gross Domestic Product. The Royal Bank of Canada's consumer spending tracker released on March 9 showed discretionary spending "held up" in February, driven by air travel demand. While it is unclear what part of that has been deployed, that kitty will help Canada to avoid a deep recession, she noted. "They're trying to lock in these interest rates," Porter said.

☆ Buy these 24 quality stocks to safeguard your portfolio from higher interest rates, according to BMO Capital Markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Here are 24 high-quality stocks to buy now to protect your portfolio from higher rates. But when the Fed's rate hikes fully go into effect, excess savings will dry up, and pent-up demand will fade. Labor market resilience and the Fed's latest messaging about the possibility of more rate hikes makes that dovish outcome "highly unlikely," Porter wrote. The Fed's interest rate decision — and potentially the economy's near-term future — hinges on how hot or cool inflation is in next Tuesday's report. BMO Capital MarketsBelow are 24 US stocks that currently have the best prospects for strong risk-adjusted returns, according to BMO.

☆ TSX gains as Bank of Canada signals slowdown in rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Shashwat Chauhan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] A sign board displaying Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) stock information is seen in Toronto June 23, 2014. REUTERS/Mark Blinch/File PhotoDec 7 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index climbed on Wednesday as investors shrugged off potential impact from a oversized rate hike by the Bank of Canada and digested commentary from the central bank hinting at an end to its monetary policy tightening. ET (15:32 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was up 102.39 points, or 0.51%, at 20,092.56. "Above and beyond the rate hike itself, the bank also indicated that they're going to consider whether future rate hikes are needed," said Douglas Porter, chief economist, BMO Capital Markets. The materials sector (.GSPTTMT), which includes precious and base metal miners, led gains in the index with a climb of 1%.

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