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He reasoned that while higher interest rates were a concern, solid earnings growth would keep stocks afloat. Since then, the S&P 500 has rallied 11.1% off its early May lows and extended its year-to-date surge to 16.9%. Since UBS GWM is neutral on US stocks, Lefkowitz recommends that investors keep their expectations in check and look for alternatives. Though not flashy, bonds boast attractive yields and should continue to rally if the Fed cuts rates this fall, according to UBS GWM. "We think investors should position for a lower interest rate environment and buy quality bonds, which have attractive yields and the potential for capital appreciation amid the potential for a deeper easing cycle," Marcelli wrote in the note.
Persons: , it's, David Lefkowitz, who's, Lefkowitz, We'll, that's, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, UBS GWM, seconding, Solita Marcelli, Marcelli, Trump Organizations: Service, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS GWM's, Business, UBS GWM, Federal, Nvidia, UBS, White Locations: Washington
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Adam Parker, David Lefkowitz, & Ayako YoshikaDavid Lefkowitz, senior equity strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management; Ayako Yoshika, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group; and Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate Research, join CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to discuss the market outlooks, expectations for the Fed, and more.
Persons: Adam Parker, David Lefkowitz, Ayako Yoshika David Lefkowitz, Ayako Yoshika, CNBC's Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, Trivariate Research, Fed
Inflation canceled that, and now it's almost certain that Wall Street's summer is canceled, too. That means Wall Street's fantasies of decamping to the Hamptons for the summer have shattered. You can see why this tug-of-war will keep Wall Street on its toes and off Georgica Beach. There is a certain set on Wall Street that does not get to "rosé all day" on Hamptons summer water when currencies trade that way. The simplicity that Wall Street hoped for is one of the few options that's no longer on the table.
Persons: , Justin Simon, decamping, Jerome Powell, opportunistically, Jamie Dimon, Torsten Slok, Slok, Powell, we'd, David Lefkowitz, dory, McDonald's, Silas Myers, Wall, Zuck, Simon, they're, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Jasper Capital, Nasdaq, Hamptons, JPMorgan, Fed, Pepsi, Mar Vista Investments, Wall, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, EU Locations: Georgica, Japan
Less than a month ago, analysts were calling for subdued earnings growth of just 3%. Although higher rates can be a headache, Lefkowitz said earnings growth matters most. Instead of obsessing over when interest rates will fall, Lefkowitz said investors should consider the reasoning behind the Fed's decisions. "If rates are rising and that's leading to more confidence in the earnings growth outlook, then that shouldn't be a headwind to markets," Lefkowitz said. Follow this 5-part investing game planHealthy earnings growth and a resilient economy have strategists at UBS GWM bullish about US stocks.
Persons: Jonathan Golub, weren't, that's, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, , shouldn't Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS, Business, UBS GWM, Bank of America, Federal, Healthcare
Large technology stocks have continued to be a key driver of earnings growth. Those calls are based on the firms' expectation that the economy will continue to grow despite uncomfortably high interest rates. Bullish firms concur that elevated interest rates are a serious concern for investors. "Should the outlook for earnings growth deteriorate, the recent stretch of quality outperformance will likely continue and also expand to include stocks with stable growth," Kostin wrote. Along with each is its ticker, market capitalization, sector, 2024 expected earnings growth rate, and 10-year EBITDA growth variability rate, according to Goldman Sachs.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, That's, Jonathan Golub, David Lefkowitz, Stocks, they've, Mike Wilson, Morgan, 19.3x, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Wilson, Kostin, Russell Organizations: UBS, Business, UBS Beats, UBS Global Wealth Management, Companies, Federal Reserve
The S&P 500 is down 7% since the start of September and briefly entered correction territory from its summer high last week. However, strategists say these threats are mostly priced into stocks, but higher earnings aren't. After three straight quarters of contracting profits, both BofA and UBS expect earnings to grow at least 3% year-over-year in Q3. "Within the context of our expectations for a continued choppy backdrop, we are incrementally more positive," Lerner wrote in a late October note. Truist's more constructive view on equities is based on strong results so far in Q3, Lerner wrote.
Persons: Oppenheimer, Savita Subramanian, Marcelli, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, Keith Lerner, Lerner, it's, Truist, Mark Haefele Organizations: Bank of America, UBS, Bank of America's, Equity, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Israel, Oppenheimer Asset Management Locations: Israel, Ukraine, Truist, Real, Charlotte
UBS pushes out S&P 500 mid-2024 target forecast to year-end
  + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
A logo of Swiss bank UBS is seen in Zurich, Switzerland March 29, 2023. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 16 (Reuters) - UBS said it now expects the S&P 500 (.SPX) to hit 4,700 points only by December 2024, instead of the middle of the year as it forecast earlier, due to expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates. "The delay ... is primarily related to the recent rapid move higher in interest rates and ... expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer," said David Lefkowitz, head of chief investment office, U.S. equities, UBS. The fear of higher-for-longer rates has pushed the S&P 500 down about 6% from this year's highs hit late in July. Reporting by Reshma Rockie George and Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Denis Balibouse, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, Reshma Rockie George, Susan Mathew, Savio D'Souza Organizations: Swiss, UBS, REUTERS, The Federal, Thomson Locations: Zurich, Switzerland, U.S, Bengaluru
Too high a number could fan fears of the Fed leaving interest rates higher for longer or hiking them more in coming months. That would give investors less reason to hold onto stocks after a tech-led drop in which the S&P 500 lost about 5% from summer highs. Reasons for optimism include the relative outperformance of the U.S. economy compared to Europe and China, and signs the so-called profit recession among S&P 500 companies may be over. The S&P 500 Information Technology sector lost more than 2% this week following news that Beijing had ordered central government employees to stop using iPhones for work. Still, much of the bull case for stocks hinges on softer inflation eventually pushing the Fed to lower interest rates.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Michael Purves, Randy Frederick, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Jonathan Golub, David Lefkowitz, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Tallbacken Capital Advisors, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Technology, Apple, Huawei, Chief, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Credit Suisse Securities, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Europe, China, Beijing
Are higher rates going to lead to some slow down in conjunction with the dwindling of excess consumer savings," said Lefkowitz, who also cited concerns about high valuations in equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 75.86 points, or 0.22%, to 34,576.59, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 6.35 points, or 0.14%, to 4,457.49 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 12.69 points, or 0.09%, to 13,761.53. For the week, which was shortened by Monday's Labor Day holiday, the S&P 500 fell 1.3%, while the Nasdaq lost 1.9% with both snapping two weeks of gains. After losing 2.9% in two sessions, the S&P 500 technology sector (.SPLRCT) closed higher. The S&P 500 posted 13 new 52-week highs and 17 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 36 new highs and 229 new lows.
Persons: David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, Brendan McDermid, Phil Blancato, Ladenburg, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Ryan Cohen, Sinéad Carew, Chuck Mikolajczak, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Shristi, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Gilead Sciences, Kroger, Dow, Nasdaq, Index, UBS Global Wealth Management, Dow Jones, Monday's Labor, Apple, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Asset Management, York Fed, Dallas, BofA Securities, GameStop, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Beijing, New York City, U.S, New York, Bengaluru
Too high a number could fan fears of the Fed leaving interest rates higher for longer or hiking them more in coming months. That would give investors less reason to hold onto stocks after a tech-led drop in which the S&P 500 lost about 5% from summer highs. Reasons for optimism include the relative outperformance of the U.S. economy compared to Europe and China, and signs the so-called profit recession among S&P 500 companies may be over. The S&P 500 Information Technology sector lost more than 2% this week following news that Beijing had ordered central government employees to stop using iPhones for work. Still, much of the bull case for stocks hinges on softer inflation eventually pushing the Fed to lower interest rates.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Michael Purves, Randy Frederick, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Jonathan Golub, David Lefkowitz, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Tallbacken Capital Advisors, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Technology, Apple, Huawei, Chief, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Credit Suisse Securities, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Europe, China, Beijing
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Are higher rates going to lead to some slow down in conjunction with the dwindling of excess consumer savings," said Lefkowitz, who also cited concerns about high equity valuations. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 6.85 points, or 0.15%, to end at 4,457.62 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) gained 12.69 points, or 0.09%, to 13,761.53. Oil prices are up so far in September and on track for a fourth straight monthly gain, and this week's data also fueled inflation fears. This included stronger-than-expected services activity data and a fall in weekly jobless claims.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, Phil Blancato, Ladenburg, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Sinéad Carew, Shristi, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Index, Federal, FedWatch, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Asset Management, York Fed, Dallas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, Bengaluru
The logo of UBS is seen prior to a press conference of the Swiss bank after the takeover of Credit Suisse, in Zurich, Switzerland, August 31, 2023. "The improving profit picture is one of the key reasons that we think the market can hold on to its year-to-date gains," he said, citing the nearly 20% gain in the S&P 500 for the year to date. UBS expects the S&P 500 end the year at 4,500, up around 1% from its trading price Wednesday, and reach 4,700 by June. Overall, profit expectations for the median company in the S&P 500 are up 5.6% since July 2022, UBS said, while estimates are at or above all-time highs in every sector but energy, healthcare, and materials. Reporting by David RandallOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Denis Balibouse, David Lefkowitz, David Randall Organizations: UBS, Credit Suisse, REUTERS, UBS Financial Services, Thomson Locations: Swiss, Zurich, Switzerland, U.S
That has hurt shares of energy companies: after soaring in 2022, the S&P 500 energy sector (.SPNY) has lost nearly 10% this year, making it the index’s worst performing sector. Most investors believe central bank interest rate hikes to fight inflation should keep a lid on global growth for the time being. Yet some are positioning for a rebound in energy shares, drawn by attractive valuations and signs the U.S. will continue to stave off an economic downturn. Stan Majcher, a portfolio manager at Hotchkis & Wiley, is among those counting on oil prices rebounding due to tight supply. “If you don’t get it, the path of least resistance is for oil prices to move much higher," he said.
Persons: Brent, David Lefkowitz, Baker Hughes, Stan Majcher, Refinitiv, Charles Lemonides, Sam Peters, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: YORK, UBS Wealth Management, UBS, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, . West Texas, Brent, U.S, drillers, Hotchkis, Wiley, Kosmos Energy Ltd, Bank of America Survey, Hess Corp, Occidental Petroleum Corp, ClearBridge Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Saudi Arabia
Watch CNBC's full interview with David Lefkowitz and Warren Pies
  + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with David Lefkowitz and Warren PiesDavid Lefkowitz, UBS Wealth Management, and Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss today's market rally, the state of the U.S. economy, and the bond market.
Persons: David Lefkowitz, Warren Pies David Lefkowitz, Warren Organizations: UBS Wealth Management, 3Fourteen Research Locations: U.S
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe big recession trade is getting priced out of the market, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesDavid Lefkowitz, UBS Wealth Management, and Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss today's market rally, the state of the U.S. economy, and the bond market.
Persons: Warren Pies David Lefkowitz, Warren Organizations: UBS Wealth Management, 3Fourteen Research Locations: U.S
Specifically, Lefkowitz has invested in both cyclical and defensive sectors to maximize his returns. In fact, to hedge his bets across a range of economic scenarios, Lefkowitz currently owns both defensive and cyclical sectors. Within the traditionally defensive sectors, Lefkowitz is overweight consumer staples and utilities. The energy sector, on the other hand, stands to benefit from increased investment capital pouring into fossil fuels and renewable energy sources, as a result of the recent energy scarcity crisis. Surprisingly, Lefkowitz is neutral on healthcare — traditionally considered another defensive sector — as a function of not wanting to place all his bets in one direction.
Technical indicators such as equity price movement largely show stocks are poised to continue a rally that has seen the S&P 500 climb 8% year-to-date, analysts who track them said. TECHNICALLY SPEAKINGThe S&P 500 (.SPX) has traded in a 9.7 percentage point range year-to-date, its narrowest range for comparable periods since 2017. Johnson, who has a year-end S&P 500 target of 4,625, is encouraged by the reversals in downtrends for many U.S. stock indexes. The S&P 500 has traded higher 83% of the time for the full year, returning an average 13.73%, when it hasn't dropped below the preceding year’s December low in the first quarter, a Piper Sandler analysis showed. The S&P 500 is trading at about 18 times 12-month forward earnings estimates compared to its long-term average P/E of 15.6 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.
UBS, the world's largest asset manager, downgraded stocks and says they have little upside now. The firm says investors shouldn't sit on the sidelines, especially in the bond market. UBS advised investors on what to buy in stocks, bonds, currencies, and alternative assets. "The bond market is pricing for a recession to start as soon as the summer," Haefele wrote, while oil prices and credit spreads also reflect substantial recession risk. Speaking of stocks, Haefele doesn't like what he sees.
Investors should turn their attention toward quality stocks as market volatility persists and a recession becomes more likely, UBS said in a note this week. Because of this, UBS thinks stocks are likely to remain volatile, and investors should turn to quality names to ride out the storm. UBS highlighted four stock baskets that investors should turn their attention to, including one titled "Time for quality." Bank of America is another "time for quality" stock on the UBS list, which highlights earnings per share growth and profitability. Other stocks that made UBS' list include Merck , American Express, Oracle and Lockheed Martin.
Here's 10 that made the list: AT & T made the list with a dividend yield of 5.5%. UBS has a buy rating on the telecommunications stock with a price target of $24, implying 10.7% upside over Thursday's close. Also rated a buy, UBS raised its price target by $2 in January to $56. American Electric Power , meanwhile, has a 3.6% dividend yield. UBS has a buy rating and a $113 price target, meaning the utility could rally 19.5% from Thursday's close.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's premature to get back into tech, says UBS's David Lefkowitz. David Lefkowitz, UBS CIO Head of U.S. Equities, joins "TechCheck" to discuss why its too early to buy tech right now.
The index has bounced about 10% from its October lows but remains down more than 17% on the year. Equities’ trajectory in the near future may depend on whether Tuesday’s consumer price index report shows inflation is responding to the most aggressive Fed hiking cycle since the 1980s. Hotter-than-expected data could bolster fears of more Fed hawkishness, pressuring stocks. A second helping of benign data could bolster the case for a peak in inflation and buoy equities further. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, investors are factoring in a half-percentage-point rate hike from the Fed next week, a step down from its recent series of three-quarter-point increases.
In mid-May, Lefkowitz noted that stocks looked oversold and predicted that inflation would fall as wages and supply-chains eased. Sure enough, the S&P 500 entered a steep correction for the exact reasons Lefkowitz outlined. Their latest S&P 500 target for June 2023 is 3,700, which was marked down from both their previous mid-year 2023 target of 4,200, and remains well below their year-end 2023 target of 4,000. For context, the S&P 500 is currently sitting at about 3,960 but fell as low as 3,715 earlier this week. "Since World War II, we've never seen only a modest rise in the unemployment rate," Lefkowitz said.
A teetering global economy could cause earnings to decline, said Tavis McCourt of Raymond James. Here are 15 stocks that McCourt and Raymond James are bullish on right now. That multiple is above the S&P 500's long-term average but is warranted because of the shaky prospects for foreign stocks, McCourt said. Buy these 15 stocks and play defense as the economy evolvesIn addition to sharing his economic outlook, McCourt gave Insider a list of 15 of his favorite stock picks right now. The first two themes can help investors get defensive while the latter two speak to how the economy is shifting.
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