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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNames being floated for Trump's Treasury pick would be 'warmly received' by the markets: Dan CliftonDan Clifton, Strategas head of policy research, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss what he's looking for in president-elect Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary, how his selection could influence economic policy, and more.
Persons: Dan Clifton Dan Clifton, Strategas, Trump's Organizations: Treasury
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Not much has changed' for markets since Biden's resignation from race, says Strategas' Dan CliftonDan Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas Partners, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the upcoming 2024 presidential election and its impact on markets.
Persons: Strategas, Dan Clifton Dan Clifton Organizations: Strategas Partners
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe 'tariff trade' is the largest area to watch ahead of election, says Strategas' Dan CliftonDan Clifton, Strategas Research Partners head of policy research, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss election trades, market impact and more.
Persons: Strategas, Dan Clifton Dan Clifton Organizations: Strategas Research Partners
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBetting odds are surging for Trump, says Strategas’ Dan CliftonDan Clifton, Strategas head of policy research, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss last night's Trump-Biden debate, how the debate would impact the markets, and more.
Persons: Strategas, Dan Clifton Dan Clifton, Trump, Biden Organizations: Trump
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis is a 'game changing' political environment, says Strategas' Dan CliftonDan Clifton, Strategas head of policy research, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the latest inflation numbers, the impact of the current economy on poll numbers and more.
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The Santa Claus rally is in trouble. With one day left in the trade, the S & P 500 is down 0.1% in the past six days. Fortunately, a negative Santa Claus rally period doesn't happen very often, only 12 times since 1969 — less than 25% of the time. "That is 16 out of 16 years, which includes years with recessions, like 2020," Clifton notes. The outperformance is notable: The S & P tends to be stronger by 1.3% on average.
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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBudget warfare in Congress will continue throughout the year, says Strategas' Dan CliftonDan Clifton, Strategas head of policy research, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the bond market response to debt servicing costs, forces against Representative McCarthy's speakership hold, and 10-year notes on a trajectory to hit 5%.
Persons: Strategas, Dan Clifton Dan Clifton, McCarthy's speakership
The Q3 survey of corporate finance chiefs finds a sharp rise in CFOs pointing to government regulation as the biggest risk factor for their business. From Q1 to Q3 2023, the percentage of CFOs saying government regulation is their biggest risk jumped from roughly 6% to 40%. This quarter, only 10% of CFOs cited inflation, while the 40% who pointed to regulation represented a more than doubling quarter over quarter. watch nowFor the business community's biggest advocacy group, getting back to normal also means confronting a new normal. "The emergence of government policy as risk relative to other risks has been growing substantially over the past decade."
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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSoftening labor market could pose challenge for Biden in 2024, says Strategas' Dan CliftonDan Clifton, Strategas head of policy research, joins 'Squawk Box' to break down President Biden's economic policy speech, what it means for the 2024 presidential race, and more.
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Liquidity has fallen by $150 billion since Congress suspended the debt ceiling, Strategas said. The debt deal earlier this month cleared the way for the Treasury Department to issue more T-bills. The debt ceiling deal cleared the way for the Treasury Department to auction more T-bills, which will restore the government's cash balance. And the outflows are only accelerating, the note found, with half of the $150 billion liquidity drain occurring over the past three days. Meanwhile, the Treasury Department is expected go on a big debt spree, and Strategas expects 50% of the issuance will come from bank reserves, which reduces liquidity.
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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDraining the Fed's reverse repos will helps maintain bank liquidity, says Strategas' Dan CliftonDan Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas Research Companies, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss using reverse repo operations to remove liquidity from the banking sector, the issuance of treasury bills driving net interest costs, and fears of a government shutdown.
Persons: Strategas, Dan Clifton Dan Clifton Organizations: Strategas Research Companies
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDraining the Fed's reverse repos will help maintain bank liquidity, says Strategas' Dan CliftonDan Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas Research Companies, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss using reverse repo operations to remove liquidity from the banking sector, the issuance of treasury bills driving net interest costs, and fears of a government shutdown.
Persons: Strategas, Dan Clifton Dan Clifton Organizations: Strategas Research Companies
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOpportunities outside mega caps look extraordinary right now, says Richard BernsteinRichard Bernstein, CEO and chief investment officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, Dan Clifton, Strategas Head of Policy Research, and CNBC's Kayla Tausche join 'The Exchange' to discuss bullish investment in international equities, the looming debt ceiling default, and China's recovery story.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailClifton: If history is a guide, markets could decline after a debt ceiling deal is reachedDan Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas, says we could have a big economic event, a big political event, and a major crisis of confidence in our elected officials if we don't get a deal to raise the debt ceiling in time.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStrategas' Dan Clifton breaks down what the debt ceiling means for stocksDan Clifton, Strategas Securities head of policy research, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming debt ceiling and what it could mean for stocks.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStrategas' Dan Clifton on the debt limit bill: This is going to be some watered-down planDaniel Clifton, Strategas Securities head of policy research, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss what Clifton's expecting House Speaker McCarthy to say to Wall Street, why Speaker McCarthy decided to speak to the investor community, and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMcCarthy remains favorite for House speaker despite GOP fractions, says Strategas' Dan CliftonDan Clifton, Strategas Securities partner and head of policy research, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss who would get 100% of the vote for Speaker of the House if not McCarthy, if any other nominees would get the holdout group's votes and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe real tale of the tape today is what's going on in sectors, says Strategas' Dan CliftonStrategas' Dan Clifton joins 'CNBC: Business on the Ballot' to discuss today's midterm election and what Wall Street is watching as polls close around the country.
Congress last raised the debt ceiling by $2.5 trillion December, 2021, providing enough borrowing capacity to get past the midterm elections. "Since 2011, the market really hasn't reacted too much to the debt ceiling fights. That would pit the White House against congressional Republicans, who see raising the debt ceiling as an opportunity to cut and redirect spending. President Joe Biden, in a tweet, last weekend talked about the pending debt ceiling battle. He said that even before the debt ceiling, Congress needs to pass a continuing resolution in December to temporarily fund the government.
There will be things about gridlock the market doesn't like," said Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James. Meanwhile, under a Republican president, the stock market on average gains 4.9% when Democrats control Congress, and the market gains 7.3% with a split Congress. Strategas Research says the stock market is signaling that Republicans may sweep the election . There are clear stock market winners from a Republican victory, at least in the House. Laperriere, in a note, wrote that tech, small cap and financial firms are most vulnerable to higher taxes and tougher regulations, and they could benefit from a Republican Congress.
The Strategas Republican portfolio contains a number of energy companies including Cheniere, Centrus Energy , Enterprise Products and ConocoPhillips. The Republican portfolio contains Regeneron , up 7.5% since the end of September, and Bristol-Myers Squibb, up 10.8% in that same period. Clifton said the Republican portfolio bottomed out around Sept. 7, and in October it pulled ahead. "There's more confidence the Republican House gains are going to be quite large," he said. "If the consensus is wrong and the Democrats keep the Senate, the sector that will have the most upside is the clean energy sector," he said.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's a 70% chance of a Republican sweep during midterms, says Strategas' Dan CliftonDaniel Clifton, Strategas Securities head of policy research, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss how the upcoming midterm elections could impact markets.
At the same time, odds for a Republican sweep on Nov. 8 have risen. Individual solar and other renewable names are also down sharply, like First Solar, which is in the Strategas Democratic portfolio. Clifton said his portfolios are pointing to a 60% chance of a Republican sweep, while betting markets are at 50/50. Among the holdings in the Republican portfolio are companies that would benefit from distribution and transportation of oil and gas, like Enterprise Products Partners. "The market is increasingly pricing in a Republican sweep.
Why Wall Street shouldn’t sweat the midterms
  + stars: | 2022-10-06 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
New York CNN Business —The midterm elections are a little more than a month away, and if Wall Street had a vote, it’d be for more gridlock. Just a few months ago, many political observers and Wall Street experts were predicting that the GOP would gain control of the Senate and possibly even the House. The conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that the market prefers when politicians bicker and little actually gets done. Clifton also pointed out that “there were two notable exceptions” to the usual midterm market moves: 1974 and 1978. The Fed’s next scheduled meeting is on November 2, just six days before the midterms.
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