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Search resuls for: "Cycle Research"


6 mentions found


☆ How America's Economy Managed to Avoid Recession, Job Market Disaster
  + stars: | 2024-10-27 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +9 min
AdvertisementWe're not in a recessionTo determine whether the economy is in recession, it helps to first define the term. Sure, the yearlong payrolls were adjusted down, but the story has largely been the same: This is a cooling but not collapsing labor market. Despite the 50-basis-point interest-rate cut by Chairman Jerome Powell and the rest of the Fed, there's evidence of additional slowing in the labor market. Since the rate cut, I've grown more confident that it will act in the face of weaker employment data. If the labor market deteriorates and the unemployment rate increases, we ought not to rule out another 50-basis-point move.
Persons: We're, —, Jerome Powell, there's, Powell, Stocks Organizations: Federal, National Bureau of Economic Research, Social Security, Conference Locations: America
☆ The US economy is flashing a recession warning that has only been wrong once in the last century, top economist says
  + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
The economy is flashing a recession warning that has only been wrong once in the last 120 years. The ECRI's Leading Economic Index has started to decline in the past year, top economist Lakshman Achuthan said. AdvertisementThe US economy is flashing a classic recession warning that has only shown a false positive once in the last century, according to top economist Lakshman Achuthan. AdvertisementHiring strength seems to lie in non-discretionary areas of the market — which typically occurs before a recession, Achuthan said, as consumers prioritize needs over wants. Job growth in education and health rose around 4% last year, though job growth in every other sector trended near 0%, ECRI data shows.
Persons: Lakshman Achuthan, —, Achuthan, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Cycle Research, Rosenberg Research, Atlanta Fed
☆ Don't rule out a 'hard landing' for the US economy and that means it's still 'tough going' for stocks, forecaster says
  + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
A 'hard landing' for the US economy is still in the cards as leading indicators suggest it's not out of the woods yet, an ECRI forecaster says. The upturn in economic data earlier this year was 'a flash in the pan,' Lakshman Achuthan told CNBC. The downbeat economic outlook means stocks will continue to struggle, according to him. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. I think it's still tough going for stocks for the time being," he said.
☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Lakshman Achuthan
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Lakshman AchuthanLakshman Achuthan, Economic Cycle Research Institute, joins 'Fast Money' to discuss new chart dating indicating a possible hard landing.
☆ This ominous trend spells a hard landing for economy
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Stephanie Landsman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Investors may want to brace for a hard landing. A new chart from the Economic Cycle Research Institute shows a recession is imminent. "We're seeing lots of symptoms [of a significant downturn] when you have crises," the institute's co-founder Lakshman Achuthan told CNBC's " Fast Money " on Wednesday. Achuthan highlighted a special weekly leading index sent to clients. ECRI's weekly leading index, which is based on a combination of government economic data, soft surveys and market prices, shows a firming in the beginning of this year.
☆ Column: Oil and gas mini-slump all part of a cycle: Kemp
  + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( John Kemp | Thomson Reuters | John Kemp Is A Senior Market Analyst Specializing In Oil | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
As a result, research on business cycles moved in other directions, and policymakers increasingly aimed to eliminate cyclical instability altogether. Oil and gas cycles have been closely correlated with each other and with U.S. manufacturing activity. On average, troughs in oil prices occur within ±3 months of a turning point in U.S. manufacturing activity, while troughs in gas prices occur within ±4 months. Some softness in manufacturing activity as well as oil and gas prices should therefore be expected at this point. If the current slowdown proves to be a mid-cycle soft patch, gas and especially oil prices are likely to rise strongly later in 2023.
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