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☆ Copper futures hit record high as data center build-up, EV growth fuels demand
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Copper futures hit a record high on Wednesday as demand for the base metal stays strong amid a rush to build data centers and the continued electrification of the global economy. It is integral to manufacturing electric vehicles, power grids and wind turbines, especially as the global economy electrifies. The International Energy Agency is expecting power demand from data centers to more than double to over 1000 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2026 from 460 TWh in 2022. Copper production growth forecast for 2024 has been cut to 0.5% compared with a 3.7% growth estimated by ICSG last October 2023. Anglo American, a major producer, said it would cut copper output in 2024 and 2025 as it seeks to cut costs.

Persons: ICSG Organizations: Aurubis, Bank of America, International Energy Agency, Study, Quantum Minerals, Citi, London Metals Exchange Locations: Hamburg, Germany

LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Chilean copper miner Antofagasta (ANTO.L) last week inked the first major 2024 concentrates supply deal with China's Jinchuan Group. Indeed, it's far from certain there will be a single benchmark for next year due to a shifting copper concentrates landscape. Annual "benchmark" copper smelter treatment chargesSPLIT BENCHMARK? Other members of China's Copper Smelters Purchase Team, a grouping of the country's biggest players, have rejected Jinchuan's terms as a benchmark. Its new Manyar copper smelter will start ramping up from May.

Persons: Freeport, Chen Yunian, Jinchuan, it's, Jan Harvey Organizations: China's Jinchuan, TC, Freeport McMoRan, HK, Study, China's, Copper, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Antofagasta, Jinchuan, Freeport, Indonesia, Panama, Peru, Chile, China, Jiangxi, Canada, Botswana

The future may be bright and electric but copper and the rest of the LME metals are currently caught in an old-fashioned industrial downturn. Such "green" investment appears to be acting as a major offset to the downturn in the traditional metals demand driver that is the commercial property market. MIXED SIGNALSThe energy transition and the resulting booster to metals demand was the core talking-point at this year's collective LME Week discussions. Yet the LME metals have not yet escaped the gravitational pull of the traditional industry cycle. But most visitors to LME Week will have returned home braced for more short-term price weakness.

Persons: Ruben Sprich, Max Layton, Tin, Jeremy Pearce, Jorge Vazquez, Jim Lennon, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Metal Exchange, Citi, International Tin Association, HIT, Study, GREEN, Groups, European Union, Producers, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Thoerishaus, Bern, London, Macquarie, China, Europe, North America, Indonesia, GREEN CHINA, China . China, United States

REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The copper market will transition from supply-demand balance in 2023 to a major supply surplus next year, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said after its meeting in Lisbon this week. However, its assessment chimes with a copper market consensus that Chinese demand has surprised to the upside this year. It has trimmed only very slightly its 2024 global usage growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.7%. Operating constraints and smelter maintenance outages in Chile, Indonesia, Sweden and the United States will cap copper production outside of China this year. It's worth noting that the ICSG's most recent monthly bulletin suggests the global copper market notched up a hefty 215,000-metric ton production surplus in the first seven months of 2023.

Persons: Ivan Alvarado, Everyone's, Andy Home, Susan Fenton Organizations: BHP Billiton's Escondida, REUTERS, Study, Shanghai Metal, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Antofagasta, Chile, Lisbon, China, North America, Europe, United States, Indonesia, Sweden, India

☆ Codelco ends long-term mined copper deals to China clients from 2025 -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Julian Luk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Codelco El Teniente copper mine, the world's largest underground copper mine is shown near Rancagua, Chile August 13, 2020. Output at the world's largest copper producer has been dropping despite $15 billion invested in flagship mines including El Teniente and Chuquicamata where costs have overrun significantly, according to an influential industry body. Codelco accounts for 29% of Chile's copper production. The world's largest consumer of industrial metals bought 25.3 million tonnes of copper concentrates last year, according to International Copper Study Group. The global copper concentrate market is expected to see a steep deficit during 2025-2027 as Asian and African smelters ramp up capacity, outpacing mine supply.

Persons: Fabian Cambero, Codelco, Julian Luk, Pratima Desai, Veronica Brown, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Codelco, Evergreen, Copper Study, Thomson Locations: Rancagua, Chile, Chilean, Codelco, China

Copper prices have been range-bound in recent months after a January slide from their highest in more than seven months and a May rebound from a slump below $8,000 a metric ton. Analysts forecast a copper surplus this year of 111,000 metric tons, with oversupply rising to 188,000 tons next year. Analysts expect a market deficit this year of 191,750 metric tons, dropping to 66,000 tons in 2024. Analysts expect LME cash nickel prices to average $20,000 a metric ton in the fourth quarter, down 11% from the previous poll. They expect the global nickel market to show a surplus of 199,000 metric tons this year and 150,000 tons in 2024.

Persons: Dan Smith, Goran Djukanovic, Nguyen, Eric Onstad, Ananya, David Goodman Organizations: Amalgamated Metal Trading, Study, London Metal Exchange, Reuters, Indonesia, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, YUNNAN, Yunnan, Yunnan province, Indonesia, Commerzbank, London, Bengaluru

LONDON, May 10 (Reuters) - The global copper market is facing another year of supply deficit, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The Group's April forecast is for a supply shortfall of 114,000 tonnes this year after a 431,000-tonne deficit in 2022. The calculation could easily be thrown off, since it is based on changes in visible inventory combined with China's net imports of refined metal. Last year's elevated net imports served to inflate China's apparent usage. A 16.4% slump in net imports over the first quarter of this year will do the reverse.

☆ Copper Shortage Threatens Green Transition
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Yusuf Khan | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +5 min

In 2021, refined copper demand stood at 25.3 million tons, according to the International Copper Study Group. Mined output globally in 2022 was 21.8 million tons according to the International Copper Study Group, rising only 1 million tons over the previous three years. According to Congo’s Ministry of Mines, copper metal exports totaled 2.3 million metric tons in 2022, up from 1.8 million metric tons in 2021, less than half of Chile’s output. According to analysts it is more of a “when” not an “if” copper demand is likely to surge. Changes in technology should ease some copper demand pressures.

LONDON, Dec 8 (Reuters) - A wave of new copper mine supply is washing through the market, with smelters reaping the benefits in higher treatment and refining charges (TCRCs). Annual benchmark copper smelter treatment and refining chargesNEW MINES, OLD PROBLEMSOnly two major copper mines were brought on stream between 2017 and 2021, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Moreover, what is not produced for whatever reason in 2022 will be deferred into 2023, when the ICSG expects the world's copper mines to produce 5.3% more metal. While mined production was up by 3.5% in January-September, refined copper production growth lagged at 2.3%, according to the latest ICSG estimates. Glencore says it can raise its copper production by around 60% to 1.6 million tonnes per year through relatively low-cost brownfield expansions.

The status of Russian metal has been a key talking-point at the many seminars and parties this week in London. Should the LME suspend deliveries of Russian aluminium, copper and nickel or should it maintain its policy of not preempting official sanctions? German copper producer Aurubis (NAFG.DE) has joined U.S. aluminium producer Alcoa (AA.N) in publicly calling for an LME ban on Russian metal. There is a lot of metal supply at stake here. An LME ban on deliveries of Russian metal would clearly have significant ramifications for both LME and physical market pricing.

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