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CNBC Daily Open: All eyes on U.S. elections
  + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. History forecasts a market rally after electionsHistorically, stocks have mostly risen after a presidential election, though there can be some short-term volatility. The three major U.S. benchmarks on average have almost always clocked gains between Election Day and year-end, going back to 1980, according to CNBC data. Markets slip ahead of Election DayStocks fell Monday as investors awaited the U.S. presidential election and Fed rate verdict later this week.
Persons: Wall, aren't, Stocks, Jeff Bezos Organizations: CNBC, JPMorgan, Fitch, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Intelligence, Investors, Amazon, U.S, Conference Board Locations: U.S, Francisco
Despite increased market volatility stemming from the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, consumer confidence toward equities has reached its most bullish point ever. The latest Consumer Confidence survey by The Conference Board showed 51.4% of participants — the highest level on record — expect stocks to rise over the next year. This is despite rising uncertainty in the markets from the looming election, evidenced by the stock market’s inability to score further gains on Monday. The record-high consumer confidence in the stock market is “something that makes us say: hmm,” chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky wrote in a note on Sunday. Krinsky noted that bonds remain “slippery,” with the 10-year Treasury yield potentially climbing back to 4.5%.
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, , ” Krinsky Organizations: U.S, Conference, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Nvidia, Federal Reserve
The Conference Board’s latest consumer survey showed that Americans this month became more optimistic about the future of both the labor market and the broader US economy. The monthly survey’s Consumer Confidence Index jumped in October by the fastest clip since March 2021. In September, jitters over the job market’s health weighed on consumer confidence, but economic data after that showed that the job market remains solid. “Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data,” Peterson said. Data for September pointed to a robust job market, which translated into better consumer confidence.
Persons: , ” Dana Peterson, jitters, ” Peterson, Kamala Harris, , Lael Brainard, Robert Frick, August’s Organizations: Washington CNN, Conference Board’s, White House, Navy Federal Credit Union
As the "chicken sandwich wars" that dominated the industry in the early 2020s cool off, chains are now preparing for the chicken-tender battle. AdvertisementChicken is a huge area of opportunity for fast-food brandsThe release of Popeyes' iconic chicken sandwich kicked off the chicken sandwich wars. It released a new recipe for its original chicken tenders on October 18, hoping to spark what the chain called the "chicken tender battle." KFC launched a new style of chicken tenders it hopes will start the "chicken tender battle." As chicken tenders gear up for a takeover, chicken sandwich wars are already yesterday's headlines.
Persons: , Gen, Irene Jiang, Gen Z, Popeyes, Burger King, Cane's, Catherine Tan, Gillespie, Erin McDowell, McDonald's, Hollis Johnson, George Felix, Felix, Chipotle, Perdue, It's Organizations: KFC, Service, Business, Restaurant Business, Revenue Management Solutions, Bloomberg, Cane's KFC, New York, Wine, Food Festival Locations: Manchester , New Hampshire, Burger, coleslaw, Texas
Recent consumer survey data on iPhone sales points to a lack of growth for Apple , according to KeyBanc Capital Markets. AAPL YTD mountain AAPL, year-to-date Nispel thinks the iPhone SE is "not purely additive" to overall iPhone sales, citing data from the firm's consumer iPhone survey for September. Additionally, among those who are likely or extremely likely to upgrade to the iPhone 16, 61% are interested in the iPhone SE. "We think this shows the iPhone SE is not incremental, and could possibly be cannibalistic to iPhone 16 sales," the analyst wrote in a Thursday note. "From our view, if iPhone SE is successful, iPhone Units could rise but [average sales prices] could fall, contrary to consensus."
Persons: Brandon Nispel, Nispel Organizations: Apple, KeyBanc, Markets Locations: U.S
Washington CNN —Americans’ attitudes toward the economy improved this month thanks to lower interest rates. Americans’ expectations for inflation rates in the long run also edged lower this month. “This month’s increase was primarily due to modest improvements in buying conditions for durables, in part due to easing interest rates,” Joanne Hsu, director of the university’s Surveys of Consumers, said in a release. The Federal Reserve last month cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years, by a bold half point, in part thanks to inflation coming under control. Lower borrowing costs make it cheaper for American shoppers to buy durable goods such as appliances, cars and furniture, which are usually bought on credit.
Persons: ” Joanne Hsu, haven’t, ” Robert Frick, Donald Trump Organizations: Washington CNN, University of Michigan’s, Consumers, Federal Reserve, Navy Federal Credit Union, University of Michigan
The largest source of revenue is the iPhone, and the company released its iPhone 16 last month. Other Apple products include Mac computers and iPad tablets, Apple Music, the Apple Watch, and other wearable devices. Android mobile devices indeed have a more significant smartphone market share internationally. The DOJ filed suit in March of this year, allegedly violating antitrust laws by monopolizing the smartphone market. At 31.5 times forward earnings estimates, Apple is four turns richer than the 27.5 5-year average.
Persons: Saudi Arabia's, what's, Dan Ives, YTD Organizations: Apple, Apple Music, Apple Watch, Cloud Services, Samsung, Microsoft, Saudi, Aramco, Android, DOJ, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: Americas, United States, Korea, China, Wedbush
A number of negative catalysts are set to drive shares of Etsy lower, according to Goldman Sachs. Analyst Eric Sheridan downgraded the e-commerce stock to sell from neutral and slashed his price target by $25 to $45, which implies more than 9% downside from Monday's close. ETSY YTD mountain ETSY, year-to-date With that, Sheridan thinks that Etsy will continue to lose market share in the years to come, seeing low-single-digit buyer growth over time. "On net, we believe that the analysis points to a lower likelihood of ETSY meaningfully compounding GMS above long-term Street estimates." Specifically, he believes that margins could be pressured if Etsy "leans further into investments to stimulate growth."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Eric Sheridan, Sheridan, Etsy, it'll Locations: HundredX
Ahead of the latest monthly inflation reading, consumers are still coming to terms with the sticker shock of everyday goods and services prices — and lingering uncertainty about the economy. The pace of consumer price growth was expected to have remained largely unchanged in September, according to Dow Jones estimates. Harris has narrowed the gap in some surveys about which presidential candidate would be better on economic issues, but Trump still leads on that metric. Analysts generally agree that’s a sign the economy remains on solid footing, at least according to the data. Today’s inflation numbers could cause Wall Street to pare back expectations of an interest-rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting in November.
Persons: Dow Jones, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Biden, Trump, Harris, , , Bill Dunkelberg Organizations: Democratic, University of Michigan Consumer Survey, Biden, AAA, Federal, National Federation of Independent Locations: November’s, pare
JPMorgan upgrades Parr Pacific to overweight from neutral JPMorgan said the gas exploration and production company has overcorrected. JPMorgan downgrades MercadoLibre to neutral from overweight JPMorgan downgraded the online Latin American marketplace mainly due to valuation. Wells Fargo reiterates Meta as overweight Wells Fargo raised its price target on Meta to $652 per share from $647. JPMorgan upgrades SAIC to overweight from neutral The firm says it sees "profitable growth" for the IT company. Berenberg upgrades Rio Tinto to buy from hold Berenberg says the metals and mining company is a "medium-term diversified winner."
Persons: Roth, DA Davidson, Davidson, PARR, Wolfe, Raymond James downgrades, Raymond James, Guggenheim, Mizuho, it's bullish, tailwinds, Wells, Wells Fargo, Canaccord, Tesla, Berenberg, Baird downgrades Harley, Baird, Harley, Gordon, FANG, Bernstein Organizations: Iren Energy, Industries, JPMorgan, Parr, Northland, TAM, Raymond James downgrades GE, GE, Deutsche Bank, Nike, Absci Corporation, Mizuho, Kodiak, Kodiak Gas Services, Meta, SAIC, IT, Tesla, Mobile, T Bank, Buffalo, Rio Tinto, BHP, Home Depot, Barclays, Diamondback Energy, Nvidia, Apple Locations: OW, Asia, Vegas, Northland, Salesforce, Rio, American
Americans are fretting over the job market
  + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Washington CNN —America’s slowing job market is taking a toll on people’s moods. The Conference Board’s latest consumer survey showed that Americans became much more pessimistic about the US economy’s current health and the future of the job market. “September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated.”The US job market is in decent shape, but it is clearly running at a much slower pace these days than it has in recent years. Peterson said the weaker-than-expected survey results “reflected consumers’ concerns about the labor market and reactions to fewer hours, slower payroll increases, fewer job openings — even if the labor market remains quite healthy, with low unemployment, few layoffs and elevated wages.”The job market’s fate is unclear. Employers might be holding back on hiring for two good reasons: Uncertainty over the upcoming US presidential election and the fate of interest rates, CNN previously reported.
Persons: , Dana Peterson, mightily, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: Washington CNN, Conference Board, Employers, Federal Reserve, CNN
We expected there to be a cooling labor market — that's kind of the goal — and it's always just, you know, how cool?" That being said, when it comes to the labor market … it is, in fact, so over. That's an improvement over July's 4.3% unemployment rate, but overall, the jobs market in the US is cooling off. Related stories"If you imagine a labor market like a bathtub, the bathtub is full," said Dana Peterson, the chief economist at the Conference Board. Despite the strong labor market, they're sending endless résumés into the ether without getting any bites, and they don't understand why.
Persons: I've, it's, Allison Shrivastava, Joanne Hsu, there's, Dana Peterson, Jaime, Alexis Fowler, she'd, That's, pang, Hsu, Michael Madowitz, Y, Peterson, We're, Emily Stewart Organizations: Federal, University of Michigan, Conference Board, Roosevelt Institute, Business
Go to newsletter preferencesSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAccording to a Harris poll from September 2023, about 45% of adults aged 18 to 29 were still living with their parents. However, the "Oracle of Wall Street" economist — so known for correctly predicting the 2008 crisis — did not foresee a recession, given that stronger cohorts would continue to power the economy. Aside from Gen Z and millennial consumers, top-earners are also helping keep the US economy afloat, Whitney noted. Those raking in over $150,000 are still active in the economy, though buying has shifted toward essentials over discretionary products.
Persons: , Meredith Whitney —, Harris, Whitney, McDonald's, Gen Z Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Business, Whitney, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dollar
Private brands — also called store brands and private-label brands — of foods and beverages have shared shelf space with national brands for years. Customer shopping habits are changing for goodIn the past, the value proposition of private brands was driven primarily by lower prices. But consumer attitudes are evolving, according to a recent survey by the Food Industry Association, which represents both food retailers and producers. And 46% said they expect to buy private brands somewhat or much more, compared to 27% saying that for national brands. "In the U.S., the market for private brands as an industry to eclipse national brands is not something we'll see," Baker said.
Persons: Peggy Davies, they've, Kraft Heinz, , Rick Gomez, Sally Lyons Wyatt, John David Rainey, Scott Morris, Kroger, King Scoopers, Albertsons, Smart, Lyons Wyatt, They've, Doug Baker, Baker, Gen Zers, Xers, Steve Zurek, there's, Zurek, Morris, Gen, Joe's Organizations: Retailers, Private Label Manufacturers Association, Procter & Gamble, Walmart, Kroger, Albertsons, Target, Wall Street, Walmart U.S, Brands, Metro Market, Food Industry Association, Aldi Locations: Kellogg's, U.S, California , Florida, Western Europe
Washington CNN —Americans are feeling a greater sense of optimism about the US economy this month, thanks to slower inflation. Voters also see a greater likelihood that Vice President Kamala Harris will defeat former President Donald Trump in the upcoming November election. The University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey, released Friday, showed that Americans’ attitudes toward the economy improved notably this month, rising 2% from August, according to a preliminary reading. That broke a monthslong spell of consumer sentiment mostly holding steady, aside from a modest increase last month. Expectations for inflation rates in the year head declined for the fourth-straight month in September, according to the report, reaching its lowest reading since December 2020.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, ” Joanne Tsu, , Harris, Trump Organizations: Washington CNN, University of Michigan’s, Consumers, ABC
In this article CPRITPR Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTPedestrians walk past a Coach store and a Michael Kors store. One of the major debates in court has surrounded who are Coach and Michael Kors' true competitors. She said in her experience, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors have never come up in customer surveys or company conversations about the competition. And he said it wouldn't need to worry as much, even if Michael Kors' brand continued to be challenged. "Once they come together, if Michael Kors continues to decline, some of that decline is going to benefit the Coach brand," he said.
Persons: Michael Kors, Scott Olson, Kate Spade, Stuart Weitzman, Capri's Versace, Jimmy Choo, Joanne Crevoiserat, Biden, LVMH, Louis Vuitton, Crevoiserat, she's, fanny, Chanel, Rebecca Minkoff, Suwon Yang, Saint Laurent, Hermes, Loren Smith, Smith, Kors, Capri Organizations: Federal Trade Commission, Capri, FTC, CNBC, Capri's, Burberry, Tapestry, D.C Locations: New York City, Manhattan, Zara, Suwon, Italy, France, Washington, U.S
Management blamed "higher interest rates and greater macroeconomic uncertainty" for pressuring consumer spending on home improvement projects. The recent data certainly supports the idea of a rate cut at the Fed's mid-September meeting. However, that's weeks away, we know things can turn on a dime in the data and the stock market. Lower rates can certainly impact the stock market — but when it comes to picking individual stocks, we remain focused on earnings. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Thursday's, Stanley Black, Decker, Stifel, bode, Russell, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Nasdaq, PPI, Management, Dow, Home Depot, Trade, Costco, Depot, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: U.S, New York City
The latest views from the monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations indicate that respondents see inflation staying elevated over the next year but then receding in the next couple of years after that. In fact, the three-year portion of the survey showed consumers expecting inflation at just 2.3%, down 0.6 percentage point from June and the lowest in the history of the survey, going back to June 2013. That's still a full percentage point away from the Fed's 2% goal but about one-third of where it was two years ago. While the medium-term outlook improved, inflation expectations on the one- and five-year horizons stood unchanged at 3% and 2.8% respectively. Respondents expect the price of gas to increase by 3.5% over the next year, 0.8 percentage point less than in June, and food to see a rise of 4.7%, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than a month ago.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: New York Federal, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed Locations: New
Chipotle has taken action after some customers complained about small portion sizes at the chain. The company found stores that got "outlier portion scores" in surveys, CEO Brian Niccol said. Chipotle never gave "a directive to provide less to our customers," Niccol added. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy .
Persons: Chipotle, Brian Niccol, Niccol, Organizations: Service, Business
Chipotle Mexican Grill on Wednesday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts' expectations as it saw higher traffic at its restaurants, bucking an industry slowdown. Shares of the company rose about 13% in extended trading before losing most of those gains and settling around 3% higher. The company's same-store sales rose 11.1% in the quarter, topping StreetAccount estimates of 9.2%. Chipotle opened 52 new company-owned locations and one new international licensed restaurant during the quarter. The company reiterated its full-year outlook that same-store sales will grow by a mid- to high-single-digit percentage.
Persons: Chipotle, Brian Niccol, Niccol Organizations: LSEG, Executives, PepsiCo, McDonald's Locations: Texas
Why Paper Checks Refuse to Die
  + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Ron Lieber | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Target stopped accepting personal checks as a form of payment this month, which might inspire the following question: What took so long? Check fraud has more than doubled in recent years, and it costs at least a dollar for businesses to process each check they receive. In many industries, checks continue to be a popular form of payment, and sometimes they are required. According to consumer survey data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which tracks the percentage of payments that consumers make by check, the following industries receive the most check payments: Contractors, like electricians and plumbers, get 25 percent of their payments by check. Landlords, government taxing authorities and professional-service firms also receive double-digit percentages of their payments by check.
Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Here are Tuesday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Goldman Sachs reiterates Alphabet and Meta as buy Goldman said it's sticking with its buy rating on shares of Alphabet and Meta. Bank of America reiterates Apple as buy Bank of America said its checks show App Store revenue increasing for Apple. KeyBanc reiterates Nvidia as overweight KeyBanc said it's sticking with its overweight rating on Nvidia shares. Morgan Stanley reiterates Tesla as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's sticking with its overweight rating on Tesla shares. " "We initiate coverage on JMIA with a Buy rating and a PT of $14."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Stifel, Jefferies, TD Cowen, it's, Piper Sandler, Piper, KeyBanc, Raymond James, Exscientia, Cowen, Morgan Stanley, Wolfe, Markel, it's bullish, Robinson, Tesla Organizations: Amazon, Netflix, YouTube, Mobile, Bank of America, " Bank of America, Apple, Nvidia, UBS, Group, Citizens, Investment, Ventures, Mizuho, First Bancorp, of America, JPMorgan, Technologies, Pan Locations: destocking, UW, F3Q, SensorTower, BRX, Puerto Rico, Pan -
TD Cowen raised its price target on Netflix, calling for 13% upside for the stock. JPMorgan analyst Rachel Vatnsdal was similarly bullish with her $42 price target, while Morgan Stanley analyst Tejas Savant set a price target of $44. The analyst also raised his price target to $42 from $37, indicating a potential 3% upside from the stock's Monday afternoon close. — Lisa Kailai Han 5:44 a.m.: TD Cowen lifts Netflix price target ahead of second-quarter earnings announcement TD Cowen expects more gains ahead for Netflix . NFLX YTD mountain NFLX year to date — Lisa Kailai Han 5:44 a.m.: KeyBanc hikes Nvidia price target The good times for Nvidia are not over yet, according to KeyBanc.
Persons: TD Cowen, KeyBanc, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Michael Ryskin, Ryskin, Rachel Vatnsdal, Tejas Savant, Morgan Stanley's Savant, William Blair, Stifel, Lisa Kailai Han, Wells, Donald Fandetti, Fandetti, — Lisa Kailai Han, Grayson, Daniel Lungo, Piper Sandler, Scott Siefers, BAC's NII, Siefers, JPMorgan Chase, Cowen, John Blackledge, Blackledge, John Vinh, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Netflix, Nvidia, Wall, Tempus, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Precision Oncology, Needham, American Express, Devon Energy, of America, Citigroup, Blackwell, Wolfe Research, UBS Locations: Devon, Williston, Netflix's, Monday's, 2H24, GB200
Apple 's commitment to privacy could soon pay off by giving it a leg up over its competitors, according to Rosenblatt. That's because Apple, unlike AI predecessors, has put privacy front and center as part of its AI marketing push and architecture," Crockett wrote. "Apple laid out what it called a Private Cloud Compute architecture that keeps personal information on personal devices, and does not allow non-permissioned release of that information to anyone else, including Apple and third party LLMs," he added. An additional advantage for Apple comes from its AI approach, which allows the firm some immunity from cost pressures at hyperscalers. Against this backdrop, Crockett sees the scales "tipping the AI risk/reward in favor of Apple."
Persons: Rosenblatt, Barton Crockett, Crockett, Michael Bloom Organizations: Apple, hyperscalers
A Trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, June 24, 2024. LONDON — European stocks are expected to open higher Wednesday, reversing negative sentiment seen in the previous trading session. The positive open anticipated for European markets comes after rocky trade in the region, and elsewhere globally, after a tech-driven selloff — although volatility in the sector appeared to stabilize after chipmaking giant Nvidia rallied Tuesday. Wall Street is likely to shift its attention toward fresh U.S. inflation data on Friday with the release of May's personal consumption expenditures price index, the U.S. Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Data releases in Europe on Wednesday include Germany's GFK consumer survey for July and European consumer confidence data for June.
Persons: Germany's DAX Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, LONDON, CAC, IG, Nvidia, U.S, U.S . Federal Locations: New York City, Asia, Pacific, U.S ., Europe, Mulberry
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