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☆ Small businesses are hurting at the worst possible time
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-17 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

That’s because small businesses typically having tighter profit margins compared to behemoths like Walmart and Amazon, so they feel the sting of rising costs more acutely. The Small Business Index shows that 8 in 10 small retail businesses rely on holiday sales to meet their annual profit goals. If only it were that simple for small businesses. John Waldmann, chief executive of Homebase, a payroll software provider for more than 100,000 small businesses, said Enjou Chocolat’s dilemma is something he hears all the time. “Small businesses are really reticent to increase prices, so when they do, it’s because they have to,” Waldmann said.

Persons: Washington CNN — Enjou, Mark Chinsky, “, ‘ that’s, you’ve, ” Chinsky, that, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, we’re, ”, Thomas Barkin, “ Price, Joe Raedle, John Waldmann, Enjou, ” Waldmann, “ They’re, Scott Olson, there’s, Sarah Jordan, ” There’s, Bill Dunkelberg Organizations: Washington CNN, CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Walmart, ” Richmond Fed, Target, “, Board, Wrigley Field Locations: Morristown , New Jersey, America, Miami, Chicago

☆ CNBC Daily Open: All eyes on U.S. elections
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. History forecasts a market rally after electionsHistorically, stocks have mostly risen after a presidential election, though there can be some short-term volatility. The three major U.S. benchmarks on average have almost always clocked gains between Election Day and year-end, going back to 1980, according to CNBC data. Markets slip ahead of Election DayStocks fell Monday as investors awaited the U.S. presidential election and Fed rate verdict later this week.

Persons: Wall, aren't, Stocks, Jeff Bezos Organizations: CNBC, JPMorgan, Fitch, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Intelligence, Investors, Amazon, U.S, Conference Board Locations: U.S, Francisco

☆ American CEOs want nothing to do with Trump, says Yale's Jeff Sonnenfeld
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAmerican CEOs want nothing to do with Trump, says Yale's Jeff SonnenfeldSteve Odland, The Conference Board CEO, and Jeff Sonnenfeld, Yale School of Management's senior associate dean discuss where American CEOs stand on the country's most important issues.

Persons: Trump, Jeff Sonnenfeld Steve Odland, Jeff Sonnenfeld Organizations: Conference, Yale School, Management's

☆ CNBC Daily Open: U.S. elections in spotlight as polls open
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People vote at the San Francisco City Hall voting center on the final day of early voting ahead of Election Day, on November 4, 2024 in San Francisco, California. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. U.S. markets mostly gain after electionsHistorically, stocks have mostly risen after a presidential election, though there can be some short-term volatility. The three major U.S. benchmarks on average have almost always clocked gains between Election Day and year-end, going back to 1980, according to CNBC data.

Persons: Stocks, Tesla Organizations: San Francisco City Hall, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, China's CSI, Apple, Starbucks, Nike, Adidas, U.S, Conference Board Locations: San Francisco , California, U.S, Asia, Pacific, China, Poor China

☆ Consumer survey shows record-high optimism toward the stock market, even as election looms
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +1 min

Despite increased market volatility stemming from the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, consumer confidence toward equities has reached its most bullish point ever. The latest Consumer Confidence survey by The Conference Board showed 51.4% of participants — the highest level on record — expect stocks to rise over the next year. This is despite rising uncertainty in the markets from the looming election, evidenced by the stock market’s inability to score further gains on Monday. The record-high consumer confidence in the stock market is “something that makes us say: hmm,” chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky wrote in a note on Sunday. Krinsky noted that bonds remain “slippery,” with the 10-year Treasury yield potentially climbing back to 4.5%.

Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, “, ” Krinsky Organizations: U.S, Conference, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Nvidia, Federal Reserve

☆ Consumer confidence surges as election nears, while job openings move lower
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Consumers grew more optimistic about the U.S. economy heading into the contentious presidential election even as job openings hit multi-year lows, according to separate reports released Tuesday. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for October rose more than 11% to a reading of 138, its biggest one-month acceleration since March 2021. "Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data." The drop in openings took the ratio of job vacancies to available workers below 1.1 to 1. Though the openings level moved lower, hires rose 123,000 on the month.

Persons: Dow Jones, Dana Peterson Organizations: Labor Locations: U.S

☆ It will be another year until consumers see effects of rate cuts, says The Conference Board's Odland
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt will be another year until consumers see effects of rate cuts, says The Conference Board's OdlandSteve Odland, The Conference Board president and CEO, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss the state of the consumer, how inflation and debt are impacting consumer confidence, and more.

Persons: Steve Odland Organizations: Conference

☆ Americans’ economic mood is perking up ahead of the election, survey finds
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The Conference Board’s latest consumer survey showed that Americans this month became more optimistic about the future of both the labor market and the broader US economy. The monthly survey’s Consumer Confidence Index jumped in October by the fastest clip since March 2021. In September, jitters over the job market’s health weighed on consumer confidence, but economic data after that showed that the job market remains solid. “Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data,” Peterson said. Data for September pointed to a robust job market, which translated into better consumer confidence.

Persons: “, ” Dana Peterson, jitters, ” Peterson, Kamala Harris, ”, Lael Brainard, Robert Frick, August’s Organizations: Washington CNN, Conference Board’s, White House, Navy Federal Credit Union

☆ How America's Economy Managed to Avoid Recession, Job Market Disaster
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-27 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

AdvertisementWe're not in a recessionTo determine whether the economy is in recession, it helps to first define the term. Sure, the yearlong payrolls were adjusted down, but the story has largely been the same: This is a cooling but not collapsing labor market. Despite the 50-basis-point interest-rate cut by Chairman Jerome Powell and the rest of the Fed, there's evidence of additional slowing in the labor market. Since the rate cut, I've grown more confident that it will act in the face of weaker employment data. If the labor market deteriorates and the unemployment rate increases, we ought not to rule out another 50-basis-point move.

Persons: We're, —, Jerome Powell, there's, Powell, Stocks Organizations: Federal, National Bureau of Economic Research, Social Security, Conference Locations: America

☆ Stocks are nearing a major peak and a more 'disturbed' period of weak returns is ahead for investors, CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Grant said stocks could soon enter a period of weak returns, possibly for "many years." AdvertisementThe bull market in stocks looks like it's close to the top, according to an investment chief. AdvertisementSentiment and position indicators are also flashing signs investors are overexcited about the stock market, Grant said. The 3-month moving average of year-ahead stock market expectations has climbed to its highest on record, according to Conference Board data. That suggests there's little "cushion" in the event the stock market declines or experiences a shock, Grant said.

Persons: Michael Grant, Grant, —, subpar, Morgan Organizations: Calamos Investments, Service, Conference, Board, Federal, Federal Reserve, Governors, Morgan Research, Bloomberg, Investors

☆ Odland: Consumer spending is crucial; it makes up 70% of GDP.
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOdland: Consumer spending is crucial; it makes up 70% of GDP. Steve Odland, President & CEO of The Conference Board, discusses the significance of retail sales reports for understanding consumer behavior. He notes that retail sales are expected to increase, reflecting strong consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of GDP.

Persons: Steve Odland Organizations: Conference Board

☆ Don't let September's jobs report fool you — the labor market is still deteriorating at a worrying rate, economists warn
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Small businesses also face tight credit conditions and are slowing hiring. AdvertisementThe September payrolls report seemed to switch the investor narrative around the labor market on a dime. Given the usual lags involved between changes in rates and activity, things will probably get worse for small businesses before they get better." "The labor market is not out of the woods just yet, and I continue to see another hiccup in the jobs market before year-end," Dutta wrote. AdvertisementStill, it's unclear how much pressure the labor market will come under in the months ahead.

Persons: —, bearish David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Samuel Tombs, Tombs, Neil Dutta, Dutta Organizations: Service, Fed, September's, Rosenberg Research, Pantheon, Macro Research, The Conference Board

☆ A 32-year market vet shares 5 labor market indicators showing the US economy is barreling toward a recession — putting an overvalued stock market at risk for major declines
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This is while S&P 500 valuations remain high, putting the market at risk for big declines. In a September note, Wolfenbarger shared the below chart from Bank of America showing 19 of 20 valuation measures they monitor as being overvalued. That means the S&P 500 would have to fall 60% just to return to the historical average. But it's still unclear how accurate the September jobs data is. Future revisions and further lackluster jobs data could resume investor fears that a downturn is a serious potential threat.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, —, Merrill Lynch, St, Louis Fed, Wolfenbarger, September's, it's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, JPMorgan, Conference Board, Global, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, Nvidia Locations: St

Friday’s jobs report is expected to show another relatively healthy month of payroll gains, alongside a stable unemployment rate. At the moment, there is little light at the end of the tunnel for those job seekers. The unemployment rate was expected to be unchanged from August, at 4.2%. While the economy continues to add jobs at a steady clip, signs of ongoing labor market weakness have become unmistakable. Last week, the Conference Board’s closely watched consumer confidence survey fell by the largest amount since August 2021, driven largely by concerns about the labor market.

Persons: Dana M, Peterson, Guy Berger, ” Berger, Berger, precariousness Organizations: Labor Statistics, Conference, Conference Board, Glass, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ Why one firm is skeptical about the blockbuster September jobs report — and is still expecting another jumbo rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed will still deliver jumbo rate cuts to stabilize the weakening job market, the firm predicted. AdvertisementThough most on Wall Street are cheering September's blowout labor report, not everyone is so sure the labor market is booming. Advertisement"The extremely low response rate to the payroll survey waves a red flag," the firm wrote on Friday. The firm scrutinized last month's payroll strength against the fact that other labor market indicators have shown a pullback in hiring. Meanwhile, this week's JOLTS data prompted Deutsche Bank to question how tight the labor market really is.

Persons: —, Larry Summers Organizations: Macroeconomics, Service, Deutsche Bank, of Labor Statistics, Conference, Federal, Bank of America Locations: joblessness, tanked

☆ Stocks face a 10% drop with key economic data mired in recession territory, investment chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Key data prints are hovering in recession territory, Megan Horneman said. "I think investors got a little ahead of themselves," she said. This over-enthusiasm could cost the market heavily, pushing stocks toward a 7% to 10% drop, the chief investment officer said. "I think investors got a little ahead of themselves as far as the what strength there is in the economy," she told Yahoo Finance. Still, these data prints have taken a backseat to labor data, which holds the spotlight on Wall Street.

Persons: Megan Horneman, —, Tim Fiore, Morgan Stanley, Horneman Organizations: Yahoo Finance, Service, Conference Board, September's, PMI, US Federal Reserve

☆ These consumer products are most likely to be impacted by the port strike
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Dominick Reuter | Erin Snodgrass | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

US port workers are on strike following the expiration of their labor contract Monday night. The work stoppage at Eastern and Gulf Coast facilities will impact a host of consumer products. AdvertisementUS port workers with the International Longshoremen's Association are on strike following the expiration of their union's contract Monday night. In the latest development of the ongoing labor dispute, the work stoppage at Eastern and Gulf Coast facilities is expected to impact a host of consumer products. Continental Tire, Michelin, and Goodyear are all top importers through East and Gulf Coast ports, Pacula noted.

Persons: —, Margaret Kidd, Brian Pacula, West, Tim Ryan, Pacula, Dali, Francis Scott Key, Hurricane Helene, Michael Yamartino, Chris Butler Organizations: Gulf, Service, International Longshoremen's, Conference Board, University of Houston, Walmart, Wall, Jefferies, Continental Tire, Michelin, Goodyear, Port, National Tree Company Locations: Gulf Coast, West Coast, Central, South America, West Monroe, Florida, Peru, Miami, Asia, East, Europe, Baltimore, Hurricane

☆ Dock workers just went on strike at the worst possible time
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Erin Snodgrass | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Dockworkers walked off the job at East and Gulf Coast ports from Maine to Texas on Tuesday morning. The strike is set to disrupt major imports one month before the US election. Rerouting items to the West Coast will cost businesses time and money. Advertisement"Since these are ports on the East Coast, the folks who have suppliers in Europe will be hit," Yamartino said. AdvertisementBut if the strike lasts longer than a few weeks, Pacula said he expects the federal government to get involved, regardless of the election implications.

Persons: Dockworkers, —, Hurricane Helene, Consumers aren't, Brian Pacula, Pacula, Michael Yamartino, Yamartino, Joe Biden's, Joe Biden, Taft, Hartley Organizations: Service, International Longshoremen's Association, US Maritime Alliance, Associated Press, Conference Board, CBS News, Consumers, West, Longshoreman's Association, Retail Industry, Association Locations: East, Gulf Coast, Maine, Texas, West, Asheville , North Carolina, West Monroe, Europe, East Coast

☆ The stock market is headed for a 10% correction as the job market slows and inflation stays sticky, Stifel stock chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The bank's stock-strategy chief pointed to the slowing job market and the potential for sticky inflation. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe stock market could be headed into an end-of-the-year correction, according to Stifel's Barry Bannister. The slowing job market has already caught the attention of investors, who are watching for signs of continued economic weakness. "It's very hard to justify getting below 3% without a slowdown," Bannister said of interest rates.

Persons: Stifel's Barry Bannister, —, " Bannister, Bannister Organizations: Service, CNBC, Conference, Challenger, Investors, Investor

☆ Why moves by Amazon and comments by Jamie Dimon don’t threaten an end to remote work benefits
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

But for two key reasons, these kinds of public proclamations don’t signal a broader demise of remote work benefits. Flex work options are too popular to ditchWhile an individual company may decide to backtrack on its remote work policies, the numbers suggest that’s not happening widely. Workplace consulting firm Gallup found in May that among full-time employees in remote-capable jobs, 53% work a hybrid schedule, 27% work exclusively remotely and 21% work on site. As of August 31, job postings on Indeed.com that specify hybrid and remote work have dipped a half percentage point year over year. It also found that HR leaders say hybrid work models help attract and retain talent.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, Andy Jassy’s, Jassy, ”, ’ ”, Chris Williams, “, ” Williams, Gallup, Nick Bunker, it’s, Williams Organizations: CNN, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, Board Locations: “, Seattle

☆ There's a new reason people feel bad about the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewIt's official: The labor market vibes are not great. It's the largest tumble in sentiment since August 2021 — and workers' experiences with and expectations for the labor market are partially to blame. A weaker jobs market — although one that's still historically strong — is warping Americans' beliefs about the economy. Even so, though, it'll take a little while for new monetary policy to trickle into daily life and the labor market. Are you having trouble finding a job, or is the job market making you feel bad?

Persons: —, It's, Jerome Powell, Wells, Shannon Seery Grein, Jeremiah Kohl, Dana M, Peterson, it'll, Julia Pollak Organizations: Service, Conference, Business, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, Conference Board's, New York Federal Reserve's Survey, Consumer, Survey, Labor

☆ Gold’s hitting new records again. Here’s what it means for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Gold, traditionally perceived as a haven, has climbed roughly 30% this year, outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 index’s 20% gain. Fresh consumer confidence data on Tuesday indicated that Americans are feeling pessimistic about the US economy and future of the job market. JPMorgan Chase researchers said in a note on Monday that they expect the yellow metal to continue running toward their 2025 target price of $2,850 an ounce as the Fed brings down rates. Silver, another precious metal that tends to move in tandem with gold, has jumped roughly 34% this year, outperforming the yellow metal. New moves from China to revive its economy also has the potential to lift precious metals, said Rhind.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ”, Kristina Hooper, JPMorgan Chase, “ There’s, Will Rhind, Rhind Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Traders, JPMorgan, Treasury, GraniteShares, Citi Locations: New York, China, Turkey, India, China’s

☆ Things are looking up for the economy. So why are consumers still unhappy?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, the economy is heading in the right direction, but consumers aren't buying it . Things seem to be going really well for the economy, right? Consumers aren't feeling bullish about the economy these days. Last time around, pesky inflation was keeping things like groceries and housing costs high, even as the rest of the economy showed improvement. China's stimulus plan to boost its ailing economy sent emerging markets indexes to their highest level since April 2022 .

Persons: —, Rebecca Zisser, We've, Insider's Juliana Kaplan, Spencer Platt, Getty, Tyler Le, We'll, Morgan, Mike Wilson, Steven Blitz, China's, aren't, Chelsea Jia Feng, weren't, Natalie Ammari, that's, Ron Sherman, Gen, Mark Zuckerberg, Dan DeFrancesco, Jack Sommers, Jordan Parker Erb, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, Fed, Chelsea, Spotify, Visa, US Justice Department, Prosecutors, Meta Locations: Austin , Texas, New York, London

☆ 2 under-the-radar recession signals are flashing red this month, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The firm's chief global strategist, Peter Berezin, pointed to two low-key labor market indicators flashing warning signals this month. AdvertisementHistorically, that number has always increased in the early stages of a recession, Berezin says. Meanwhile, recent survey data shows a narrowing gap in positive and negative labor market sentiment. On average, the peak in the labor differential comes nine months ahead of a recession, Berezin says. He says the data points to the contrary, with a slowdown in year-over-year labor force growth from 1.9% a year ago to 0.4% in August.

Persons: —, Peter Berezin, Berezin, landers Organizations: Service, BCA Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board

☆ CNBC Daily Open: It might be better economic data isn’t all rosy
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. How much will oil demand grow? Oil demand will experience "robust medium-term growth," reaching 112.3 million barrels per day in 2029 from 102.2 million barrels per day in 2023, according to OPEC's 2024 World Oil Outlook report. The International Energy Agency thinks oil demand will level off at 106 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.

Persons: Stocks, Consumer's, September's, Dow, Goldman, Denis Coleman, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, U.S . Federal, JPMorgan, International Energy Agency

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