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☆ How Europe can avoid a trade war in a 2nd Trump term
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-17 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

They say the EU will need to employ some retaliatory measures but has to be careful not to escalate. AdvertisementEconomists and analysts said that in order to avoid a trade war, policymakers in Europe need to employ a specific playbook to mitigate the economic drag while keeping trade tensions in check. Kenningham says the EU will likely hit the US with targeted tariffs on certain industries, rather than an across-the-board action. Related storiesTrade deals to avoid tariffsKenningham said EU policymakers could also negotiate a deal to avoid US tariffs. Advertisement"There is a possibility that if the strategy toward Europe is very aggressive, Europeans may change attitudes toward the Transatlantic Alliance.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Trump, Joachim Nagel, Emmanuel Macron, Mario Draghi, Andrew Kenningham, Kenningham, Harley, Carlo Bastasin, Bastasin Organizations: Biden, Italian, Capital Economics, European Union, EU, Trade, European, Brookings, Trump, Transatlantic Alliance Locations: Europe, China, European, EU, Trump's, Ukraine, Germany

☆ What Trump's election victory means for global investors — and why it's different to 2016
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House has sent ripples through global financial markets, with many investors looking to recalibrate their portfolios for a dramatically different policy landscape ahead. Higher Treasury yields mean higher interest rates for corporate borrowers. Trump's tariffs Perhaps the biggest concern for investors globally is Trump's campaign promise of aggressive new tariffs , including the potential for a universal 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. However, some Asian nations might benefit if higher tariffs on China prompt manufacturers to relocate. Europe Most analysts agree that U.S. trade tariffs are likely to hurt Europe, with some companies able to navigate the challenges better than others.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Russell, Mislav Matejka, David Seif, Goldman Sachs, Gareth Leather, Macquarie, Aditya Suresh, Mark Diethelm, Diethelm, Emmanuel Cau, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: White, Republican, Trump, U.S, Nasdaq, Treasury, Nomura, Federal Reserve, Asia Capital Economics, Capital Economics, U.S ., Union, Morningstar, Logitech, Barclays Locations: Congress, Treasurys, Trump's, U.S, United States, Korea, Taiwan, China, Vietnam, Asia, India, Europe

☆ Why the global fight against inflation is nowhere near over
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"Everyone seems to believe that inflation will return to its boring old normal," said Chief European economist Tomasz Wieladek. Changes in central bank policy, expectations, labor markets, and globalization mean that inflation will likely stay volatile going forward." Depending on circumstances, this could set the scene for another large inflation target miss." For instance, JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon has repeated warnings of a pricey future, as global militarization and the green transition stoke inflation. "While AI will likely have a disinflationary effect in the medium term, the associated energy consumption could contribute to higher short-term inflation."

Persons: —, Rowe Price, Tomasz Wieladek, Wieladek, Jamie Dimon, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Business, JPMorgan Locations: Europe

☆ Bank of England rate decision 'going to be close,' Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of England rate decision 'going to be close,' Goldman Sachs saysJari Stehn, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs, says the Bank of England's monetary policy decision is "going to be close" but suggests that a rate cut may win out.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jari Stehn Organizations: Email Bank of, Bank

☆ Labour does not have much headroom in terms of fiscal changes, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLabour does not have much headroom in terms of fiscal changes, economist saysJari Stehn, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs, discusses the economic and fiscal landscape in the U.K. as Labour wins the 2024 general election.

Persons: Jari Stehn, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Labour

☆ Forget Beatlemania. Taylor Swift fever is sweeping Liverpool
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

On Thursday, it expects to welcome Taylor Swift fans heading to Anfield for the first of the superstar’s three “Eras Tour” concerts in Liverpool. Banners outside St George's Hall in Liverpool saying "Liverpool loves Taylor," seen in May 2024. Taylor Swift performs at the Scottish Gas Murrayfield Stadium on June 7, 2024, in Edinburgh, UK. A fan poses at an art installation representing Taylor Swift's "Lover" album era, in Liverpool in June 2024. People walk past an art installation representing Taylor Swift's album "The Tortured Poets Department" in Liverpool in June 2024.

Persons: Sandon, Taylor Swift, Ceri Smith, It’s, ”, Swift, Smith, Liverpool, Taylor, Phil Noble, Harry Doyle, Gareth Cattermole, Natalia Lechmanova, “, ” Taylor, deconstruct Taylor, Taylor Swift's, Peter Byrne, ’, Doyle, “ She’s, Frankie Goes, Kevin McManus, they’ve, ” McManus Organizations: London CNN, Anfield, Liverpool Football Club, CNN, Reuters, Amion Consulting, Liverpool City Council, Liverpool …, Liverpool ONE, Mastercard, Institute, Fans, Scottish Gas Murrayfield, “, Wembley, Liverpool, University of Liverpool, Cavern, National Museums Liverpool, Beatles, UNESCO, Music, Department Locations: Anfield, Liverpool, Sandon, George's, United Kingdom, English, United States, Edinburgh, London, Taylor

☆ Feeling FOMO over Reddit or Truth Social? Here's another way to cash in on meme stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Meme stocks, which gained popularity through social media platforms like Reddit and Twitter, have attracted retail investors looking to make a quick profit. In 2021, GameStop shares skyrocketed by more than 1,500% in just a few weeks, driven by a coordinated effort from retail investors on the Reddit forum r/WallStreetBets . This means that retail investors are often in a disadvantaged position when trading. Cashing in So, what can investors do to capitalize on the trading phenomenon without taking on the risks associated with meme stocks? Gooch-Peters suggests looking at the exchanges themselves, citing Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) as an example.

Persons: Hannah Gooch, Peters, Gooch, Gerry Fowler, Fowler Organizations: GameStop, Sanlam Investments, Twitter, UBS, Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, Quality, New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, CBOE

☆ This payments firm has Nvidia-like profit margins — and it's even more sustainable, investor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Gooch-Peters pointed to Visa — which has a 60% operating profit margin — as a more sustainable investment opportunity. This creates a strong competitive moat and helps to sustain the company's high profit margins over time. Gerry Fowler, chief European equity strategist at UBS, echoed the sentiment about the importance of a company's competitive moat while picking stocks. The UBS strategist pointed to the attempts of Apple, then the world's biggest company, to break into the payments network sector. The UBS strategist also cautioned that impenetrable moats might sometimes pose a downside risk to investors.

Persons: Hannah Gooch, Peters, you've, Gooch, London Business School . Gooch, " Gooch, Gerry Fowler, Fowler, Flower Organizations: Nvidia, Sanlam Investments, CNBC, London Business School, Visa, Sanlam's, Quality, UBS, Apple, world's, MasterCard, Apple Card, Mastercard, U.S

☆ U.S. or Europe — where's best to invest right now? CNBC Pro Talks goes on the road to find out
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( Cnbc.Com Staff | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This Wednesday at London Business School, CNBC's Steve Sedgwick will ask two market experts where's best to invest right now. Fowler leads UBS' European equity strategy and global derivative strategy teams. Gooch-Peters is a member of Sanlam's global high-quality equity team and leads the global equity team's investment strategy. Fowler leads UBS' European equity strategy and global derivative strategy teams. Gooch-Peters is a member of Sanlam's global high-quality equity team and leads the global equity team's investment strategy.

Persons: Steve Sedgwick, Gerry Fowler, Hannah Gooch, Peters, Fowler, Gooch, Hannah Organizations: CNBC, London Business School, UBS, Chief European, Sanlam Investments, BNP Paribas, Citi, Sanlam Locations: Abrdn, London, . New York, Singapore

☆ The room to maneuver is quite limited, economist says ahead of the U.K. budget
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe room to maneuver is quite limited, economist says ahead of the U.K. budgetThe room to maneuver is quite limited, says George Buckley, chief European economist at Nomura, ahead of the U.K. budget.

Persons: George Buckley Organizations: Nomura

☆ Euro zone inflation sinks to 2.4%, below expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

(Photo by Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images)Annual inflation in the euro zone cooled to 2.4% in November from 2.9% in October, flash figures showed Thursday. Inflation in the euro zone's largest economies, Germany and France, has dropped to 2.3% and 3.8%, respectively. ECB officials have repeatedly stressed that it is too early to declare victory over price rises in the 20-member euro zone bloc, as they monitor potential pressures from wage increases and energy markets. Separate data released by statistics agency Eurostat on Thursday showed that unemployment in the euro area remained at a record low of 6.5% in October, despite a contraction in the euro zone economy in the third quarter. "For the ECB, signs of an imminent victory on inflation are mounting," Bert Colijn, senior euro zone economist at ING, said in a note, adding that some of the impact from existing monetary tightening was yet to be felt.

Persons: Ying Tang, —, Mathieu Savary, Bert Colijn Organizations: Aachen, Getty, Reuters, European Central Bank, Energy, ECB, BCA Research, Eurostat, ING Locations: Aachen, Germany, France, European

☆ European Central Bank to cut rates in the third quarter of 2024, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEuropean Central Bank to cut rates in the third quarter of 2024, economist saysJari Stehn, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs, discusses the path ahead for European Central Bank monetary policy in 2024 and the economic outlook for Europe.

Persons: Jari Stehn, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Central Bank, European Central Bank Locations: Europe

☆ 'No common capital market a big problem for the euro zone,' strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'No common capital market a big problem for the euro zone,' strategist saysMathieu Savary, chief European strategist at BCA Research, dissects the speech of ECB's Christine Lagarde during the annual European Banking Congress.

Persons: Mathieu Savary, ECB's Christine Lagarde Organizations: BCA Research, European Banking Congress Locations: European

☆ Euro zone inflation drops to two-year low in October; economy shrinks in third quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

(Photo by Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV / AFP) (Photo by KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP via Getty Images)Inflation across the euro zone dropped to a two-year low of 2.9% in October, according to preliminary data released Tuesday, down from 4.3% the previous month and below a consensus estimate of 3.1% from a Reuters poll of economists. The agency also revealed Tuesday that the euro zone economy contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter, according to flash estimates, below consensus estimates for GDP to be unchanged from the previous quarter. The ECB expects the euro zone economy to grow by just 0.7% this year, by 1% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. The euro zone has been grappling with high inflation for the past 18 months, with the consumer price index peaking at 10.6% in October 2022. The ECB needs to see wage inflation slowing and this could take a further six months," he added.

Persons: Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV, KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV, Mathieu Savary, Mark Wall Organizations: Getty, European Union, Eurostat, ECB, European Central Bank, Council, BCA Research, Deutsche Bank Research Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, AFP, Europe's, Latvia, Belgium, Spain, Ireland, Austria, Israel, European

Research shows women in richer economies are more likely to have children if they work. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni - Italy's first female premier - has said women are "an untapped resource" that lessens the need for immigrant labour. Yet her conservative government's 2024 budget, to be presented on Monday, is not expected to include measures to drive change. According to a government report relating to 2021, nearly one in five Italian women aged under 50 left their job after having their first child. SPANISH SUCCESSMeloni's government could learn from Spain, whose female activity rate lagged Italy's in the early 1990s but is now above the EU average.

Persons: Guzzo, Vittoria, Claudia Greco, Elena, Claudia Goldin, Giorgia Meloni, Claudia Olivetti, Enza Guzzo, Gian Carlo Blangiardo, Blangiardo, Giancarlo Giorgetti, Olivetti, Paola Profeta, Katharine Neiss, Valentina Za, Elisa Anzolin, Giuseppe Fonte, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, European Union, Reuters, Research, Dartmouth College, ISTAT, Bank of, EU, France's, Milan's Bocconi University, AXA Research, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Arese, Italy, MILAN, Bank of Italy, Rome, Barcelona, Spain, Milan

☆ UK economy grew 0.2% in August, propped up by services sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.K. gross domestic product grew by 0.2% in August, the Office for National Statistics estimated Thursday, partially recovering from a downwardly revised 0.6% contraction in July. "It does not change the outlook for the Bank of England and confirms that the Bank Rate does not have much upside from here, but will remain at current levels for an extended period." The Bank of England last month ended a run of 14 consecutive interest rate hikes after data showed inflation was running below expectations. "The UK has grown faster than France and Germany since the pandemic and today's data shows the economy is more resilient than expected," U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said Thursday. U.K. headline inflation dipped to an annual 6.7% in August, below expectations but still well above the Bank's 2% target.

Persons: Mathieu Savary, Jeremy Hunt, Thiru Organizations: Citibank, HSBC, National Statistics, BCA Research, Bank of England, of England, Bank, Finance, Institute of Chartered Accountants, Wales, Bank of England's Locations: Wharf, London, United Kingdom, U.K, European, France, Germany, England

☆ ECB ‘absolutely done’ with hikes after raising rates to all-time high, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB ‘absolutely done’ with hikes after raising rates to all-time high, strategist saysPeter Schaffrik, chief European macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets, discusses the European Central Bank’s latest interest rate decision and the outlook for monetary policy over the coming months.

Persons: Peter Schaffrik Organizations: ECB, RBC Capital Markets, Central Locations: European

ECB President Christine Lagarde has said the latest rate decision will be made based on available data, a switch from the last nine meetings when rate hikes were signaled ahead of time. But Valli added that it was “a very close call.”Market indicators of future rate moves show many are leaning against an ECB rate hike Thursday. They are betting that the U.S. Federal Reserve might manage a “soft landing” by finishing its rate hikes without pushing the economy into a downturn. Economists and investors generally expect the Fed to skip a rate hike at its meeting next week, but it could increase again in November. The flip side is that rate hikes can hurt economic growth if they're overdone.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Marco Valli, Valli, Klaas Knot Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Federal Reserve, UniCredit Bank, Services, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Bank of Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Milan, France, Spain, Italy, Europe's, Europe, China, U.S, Central, Ukraine, Bank of England

A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. Investors await August consumer prices data, due on Wednesday, and producer prices scheduled on Thursday, followed by the Fed's policy decision on Sept. 20. A recent uptick in oil prices and strong economic data have fueled concerns over stubborn inflation, clouding the outlook for an end to U.S. monetary tightening. Investors will also monitor the European Central Bank's policy decision on Thursday, where it is seen holding rates after nine consecutive hikes. ET, Dow e-minis were down 48 points, or 0.14%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 9 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 27.5 points, or 0.18%.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Wall, Morgan Stanley, BoE, Mohit Kumar, Ankika Biswas, Shristi, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Kappa, Dow, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Investors, Fed, ECB, Jefferies, Dow e, Oracle, Paramount Global, Amusements, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Bengaluru

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. "It's such a close call between the pause and the rate hike," said ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski. Traders are torn but favour an ECB pause, pricing in around a 40% chance of a hike. For many economists, one thing is clear: if the ECB has further tightening to deliver, September is likely its last chance. Even the hawks, keeping a hike on the table, say fresh ECB projections on Thursday are key to the decision.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Reinhard Cluse, Mario Centeno, Isabel Schnabel, Austria's Robert Holzmann, Iain Stealey, Philip Lane, Kaspar Hense, Yoruk Bahceli, Stefano Rebaudo, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Central Bank, Traders, UBS, JPMorgan Asset Management, Reuters, ING, BlueBay Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy

On Wednesday, European shares nudged higher (.STOXX), while a gauge of Asian shares gained 0.35% (.MIAPJ0000PUS) and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei touched its highest in over two weeks (.N225). Spanish inflation rose 2.6% in August, as economists polled by Reuters had expected. Economists polled by Reuters expect the headline euro zone inflation rate to have moderated to 5.1% in August from 5.3% in July, still far above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% goal. Euro zone inflation has exceeded the target level for two years. Germany's two-year yield rose 7 bps to 3.099% after regional Germany inflation data.

Persons: Issei Kato, SEB, Elisabet Kopelman, Jerome Powell's, Europe's, Sylvia Ardagna, Ardagna, Germany's, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SEB Group, Fed, Reuters, Bank's, Barclays, ECB, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SINGAPORE, Asia, Spain, Germany, North Rhine Westphalia, Germany's

☆ Slide in euro zone service sector sharpens ECB's rates dilemma
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Euro zone business activity declined far more than thought in August with the slide in Germany particularly fast, while some inflationary pressures returned, surveys showed. Euro zone government bond yields and the euro tumbled after Wednesday's data as traders bet the ECB may soon pause its interest-rate hiking campaign. SERVICE SECTOR SLIDESThe euro zone services PMI sank as indebted consumers feeling the pinch from rising borrowing costs reined in spending. The services output prices index remained elevated at 55.9, albeit the lowest since October 2021 and below July's 56.1. "Another weak PMI for the euro zone confirms a sluggish economy with recession as a downside risk.

Persons: Mark Wall, Sarah Meyssonnier, Bert Colijn, Jonathan Cable, Hugh Lawson, Toby Chopra Organizations: European Central Bank, Reuters, PMI, Deutsche Bank, ECB, P Global, REUTERS, European Union, ING, Thomson Locations: Germany, July's, Europe's, Paris, France

☆ Morning Bid: Soft landing fatigue
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Positive economic data tends to move stock markets, either by fueling rallies, or prompting a temporary sell-off as traders take profits. But Wall Street stock markets ended Thursday flat. Futures point to mild declines for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 on Friday. The S&P 500 has risen 16% year-to-date. Analysts have cut their estimates for S&P 500 companies' 2023 earnings by about 15% since the end of last year, Capital Economics says.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Naomi Rovnick, Emmanuel Cau, Cau, Ned Davis, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Barclays, Economics, Capital Economics, Ned Davis Research, U.S Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, University of Michigan, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Tuscany

Euro zone interest rates have risen 400 basis points in the last year to 3.5%, their highest in 22 years, and are now close to peaking as headline inflation cools and the economy weakens. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates? "The ECB will hike again and anything else would be a major surprise," said RBC Capital Markets global macro strategist Peter Schaffrik. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ When does the ECB expect core inflation to fall? Euro zone business activity stalled in June as a manufacturing recession deepened and a previously resilient services sector barely grew.

Persons: Silvia Ardagna, Peter Schaffrik, Christine, Lagarde, Massimiliano Maxia, Reinhard Cluse, Ruben Segura, BofA, Philip Lane, BofA's Segura, Naomi Rovnick, Stefano Rebaudo, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Kripa Jayaram, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Barclays, ECB, Capital, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, U.S . Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Bank, Thomson Locations: Cayuela, Europe, London, Milan

☆ A 'momentous week' ahead as the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan near pivot point
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank will all announce key interest rate decisions this week, with each potentially nearing a pivotal moment in their monetary policy trajectory. The Fed Each central bank faces a very different challenge. "The FOMC will, however, maintain a tight monetary policy stance to aid continued softening in demand and consequently, inflation." Several analysts over the past week have suggested that policymakers will remain "data dependent," but push back against any talk of interest rate cuts in the near future. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane last month warned markets against pricing in cuts to interest rates within the next two years.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Michael Cahill, Cahill, Steve Englander, Englander, Philip Lane, Paul Hollingsworth, Christine Lagarde, Hollingsworth Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S, Bloomberg, Getty, . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Federal, Moody's Investors Service, Standard Chartered, Downside, Fed, BNP, Bank of Locations: U.S, North America, Bank of Japan, Japan

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