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Hong Kong CNN —In the summer of 2018, when former President Donald Trump launched a trade war with Beijing, the Chinese economy was riding high. There was even talk it could soon overtake the United States as the world’s largest. But last year, Mexico overtook China as the top exporter of goods into the United States, according to the Commerce Department. China had held that perch for 20 years before its exports to the United States fell by 20% to $427 billion last year. Women walk at a fashion accessories store displaying a poster to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, China, on November 11, 2024.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, , Dexter Roberts, Joe Biden, Matthews, Wang Shouwen, ” Andy Rothman, , Liza Tobin, Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Beijing’s, don’t, Sean Callow, Callow, Andy Wong, Rothman, Xi Jinping, Larry Hu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Trump, Atlantic Council, Commerce Department, Matthews Asia, Treasury, CNN, PVH Corp, Bain & Company, ITC Markets, US, Peterson Institute, National Bureau of Statistics, Gross, Macquarie Bank Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, United States, Mexico, Lianyungang, US, Xinjiang, , Shanghai, New York,
For investment options, she referred to the firm's survey of China stocks the investment bank's analysts already cover. Morgan Stanley's basket of bear case stocks only includes overweight-rated names with a dividend yield above 4% this year. The companies must not be on Morgan Stanley's lists of stocks at a disadvantage from Republican policy and supply chain diversification. Morgan Stanley expects Tingyi's earnings per share to grow 12% this year and 11% in 2025. Sinotruk earnings can grow 18% this year and 17% next year, according to Morgan Stanley estimates.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley's, Morgan Stanley's Wang, Morningstar, Claire Liang, Liang, Donald Trump, Trump Organizations: Kong, PepsiCo, Services, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation, China, CNBC, Republican Party, U.S . Congress Locations: China, Hong Kong, Asia, Europe, Mexico
Lan revealed that, as of the end of 2023, China had an enormous hidden debt balance of 14.3 trillion yuan ($1.99 trillion). Officials aim to trim that amount to 2.3 trillion yuan ($320 billion) by 2028. Hitting a growth targetThe scale of the debt swap, seen as underwhelming by some investors, was largely in line with the expectations of economists. Still, at this pace of growth, there’s a risk Beijing may miss its growth target rate of around 5%. Since then, economists have been expecting additional stimulus measures worth up to 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to restore bullishness in the world’s second-largest economy.
Persons: Donald Trump, Lan Fo’an, ” Lan, Lan, Larry Hu, Xi Jinping Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, House, Finance, National People’s Congress, , Macquarie Bank, Reuters Locations: China, Hong Kong, Lan, Beijing
“Trump’s return to power will certainly bring greater opportunities and greater risks for China,” said Shen Dingli, a foreign policy analyst in Shanghai. AFP/Getty ImagesChallenges and opportunitiesBut Trump’s “America First” agenda and transactional worldview may also play in Beijing’s favor, experts say. “Although Beijing is deeply concerned about the unpredictability of Trump’s China policy, it reminds itself that challenges also bring opportunities,” said Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “If the US and Russia ease relations, it could create greater daylight between Russia and China, effectively driving a wedge between them.” Liu said. “From everything he has said, it’s clear that Trump considers China, not Russia, as the main adversary.”
Persons: Donald Trump, , , Shen Dingli, Xi Jinping, Trump, Xi, “ Trump, Liu Dongshu, Jim Watson, Larry Hu, Kamala Harris, Daniel Russel, Russel, Barack Obama, Tong Zhao, Joe Biden, Arleigh Burke, Halsey, Ismael Martinez, China’s, he’s, ” Zhao, Vladimir Putin, Liu, ” Liu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Foreign, Chinese Foreign Ministry, City University of Hong, Getty, Huawei, Investment, Macquarie, Republican, Asia Society Policy Institute, Shipping, Carnegie Endowment, International, NATO, Asian Nato, Trump, US Navy, U.S . Navy, AP, Russia Beijing, Communist Party, Industry, Wall Street Locations: Hong Kong, China, United States, Beijing, Shanghai, America, City University of Hong Kong, Lago, Florida, AFP, Asia, Lianyungang, China's Jiangsu, Europe, Western, Russia, Asian, Taiwan Strait, AP Taiwan, Taiwan, Washington, Ukraine
China reviews plan to increase local government debt
  + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
BEIJING — A closely watched meeting of China's parliament standing committee on Monday reviewed a proposal to raise the local government debt limit, according to state media. New debt would go toward replacing hidden debt, the report said, noting that Finance Minister Lan Fo'an spoke at the meeting on the plan. Lan indicated at a press conference last month that an increase in the local debt limit was in the works. Local authorities in China have historically been responsible for much of public services spending, but have struggled financially as revenue from land sales to developers has dropped. China has about 50 trillion yuan to 60 trillion yuan (about $7 trillion to $8.45 trillion) in outstanding hidden debt, according to Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura.
Persons: Lan Fo'an, Lan, Ting Lu Organizations: of, Initiative, Local, Nomura Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING
Investors expect Beijing to announce details on fiscal support Friday. He expects Trump has a greater chance of winning, which he said would increase downward pressure on the Chinese yuan versus the U.S. dollar. While the People's Bank of China has cut interest rates, the Ministry of Finance has yet to release details on widely anticipated fiscal stimulus. China is considering more than 10 trillion yuan in debt issuance over a few years, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing sources. Whether it is 10 trillion yuan over three to five years, or 2 trillion yuan in one year, the average is about 2 trillion yuan in support a year, she pointed out.
Persons: Aly Song, That's, , Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Ting Lu, Biden, Zhu Bin, Zhu, Trump, Liqian Ren, Ren, Xi Jinping, Lan Fo'an, Zong Liang, WisdomTree's Ren Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Investors, National People's, Trump, Nomura, Nanhua, CNBC, U.S ., WisdomTree, People's Bank of, Ministry of Finance, Finance, Bank of China Locations: Yiwu, Zhejiang province, China, Reuters BEIJING, Beijing, U.S, United, People's Bank of China
CNBC Daily Open: Eve of Election Day
  + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Voters cast their votes during early voting in the U.S. presidential election at a polling station in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. November 3, 2024. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Asia markets climb ahead of China's parliament meetingU.S. stocks rallied Friday to kick off November, as traders shrugged off a disappointing jobs report. Asia-Pacific markets rose Monday as investors watch the U.S. election, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and China's monetary policy meeting starting Monday.
Persons: Dow Jones, shrugged, Harris, Ting Lu, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: U.S, CNBC, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Boeing, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal, National People's, Trump, Nomura, Democratic, Des Moines Register, Iowa Locations: Detroit , Michigan, U.S, Asia, Pacific, China, Beijing, Iowa Iowa, Iowa
China's industrial profits in September dropped at its fastest pace since the pandemic, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, as the country tussles with an economy plagued by slow growth, lack of demand and a property crisis. After a 17.8% fall in August, industrial profits declined 27.1% in September from a year ago, marking the steepest plunge since March 2020, when it dropped by 34.9%, according to data kept by Wind Information. In the first nine months, industrial profits fell by 3.5% from a year ago. NBS statistician Yu Weining said "insufficient demand and a sharp decline in producer prices" weighed down the profitability of industrial firms. Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis, said in an email to CNBC that "the weakness of industrial profits indicates China's greater need for demand-side policies."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan, Yu Weining, Gary Ng Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Information, People's, CNBC, Reuters, PMI Locations: Jiangxi Province, Shanghai, China, Beijing
Since then, economists have been expecting an additional stimulus package worth up to 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to restore bullishness in the world’s second-largest economy. Chinese Housing Minister Ni Hong attends a press conference on the property sector in Beijing, China, on October 17, 2024. Widespread concernThe ailing property sector is widely believed to lie at the root of China’s numerous economic woes. It also cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks by half a percentage point, which would free up about 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) for new lending. The resulting crisis has resulted in a precipitous fall in real estate prices and loss of confidence among consumers.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Housing Ministry didn’t, Larry Hu, , , Ni, Minister Ni Hong, Florence Lo, Xiao Yuanqi, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Housing Ministry, Macquarie, CNN, ” Investors, Ministry of Housing, Ni Hong, Minister, Administration Locations: China, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing
China's export growth slowed in September, raising concerns about future economic stability. China may delay further economic stimulus ahead of the US election, anticipating potential tariffs. The market had expected China's exports to grow 6% on-year in September, according to a Reuters' poll of economists. AdvertisementThe timing of the decline in China's exports also came at an untimely moment — weeks before the US presidential election. Beijing has rejected this view, saying the West's accusations are protectionist and aimed at containing China's economic growth.
Persons: , hasn't, Lu Daliang, Donald Trump, Rory Green, GlobalData.TS Lombard, Green Organizations: Service, Reuters, EU, Administration of Customs, Nomura, BofA Securities, Republican, Authorities, Trump, US Locations: China, Japan, South Korea, Beijing
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's Ministry of Finance press briefing over the weekend underscored how it is focused on tackling local government debt problems, instead of the stimulus markets have been waiting for. In his opening remarks on Saturday, Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an laid out four measures, starting with increasing support for local governments in resolving debt risks. China's real estate market slump has cut into a significant source of revenue for local governments, many of which struggled financially even before needing to spend on Covid-19 measures. He added that a large plan to address local governments' hidden debt would be announced in the near future, without specifying when. Historically, local governments were responsible for more than 85% of expenditure but only received about 60% of tax revenue, Rhodium Group said in 2021.
Persons: Finance Lan Fo'an, Lan, Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Goldin Finance, Nurphoto, Getty, BEIJING, China's Ministry, Finance, Ministry of Finance, International Monetary Fund Locations: Tianjin, China, Covid
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCredit Agricole: Still need more fiscal subsidies to boost Chinese consumptionXiaojia Zhi, Chief China Economist at Credit Agricole, says the government still needs to introduce more fiscal stimulus to shore up consumer sentiment despite signs of stabilization in China's consumer spending.
Persons: Zhi Organizations: Credit, Chief China, Credit Agricole
BEIJING — China's Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an told reporters Saturday during a press briefing that the central government has room to increase debt and the deficit. Economists have said China needs additional fiscal support, but Beijing has yet to announce any. He did not name specific figures and noted supporting real estate required multiple policies. In a meeting in late September, led by Chinese President Xi Jinping, authorities had called for strengthening monetary and fiscal policy support. China's retail sales grew only modestly over the last few months, and the country's real estate slump has shown few signs of turning around.
Persons: Lan Fo'an, Zheng Shanjie, Pan Gongsheng, Finance Lan Fo'an, Lan, Finance Liao Min, Xi Jinping, Ting Lu Organizations: National Development, Reform Commission, People's Bank of China, National People's Congress, BEIJING —, Finance, Nomura, National Bureau, Statistics Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING
However, despite the measures, which have mainly focused on monetary policy, the World Bank's 2025 growth projection was unchanged from earlier projections. The international lender estimated that China's growth rate would drop to 4.3% next year, down from a projected 4.8% in 2024, in an economic update on Tuesday. China's economic growth rate is expected to decline further in 2025 despite a temporary boost from recent stimulus measures, according to the World Bank. The World Bank has long advocated for China to boost its growth through bold policy actions such as unleashing competition, upgrading infrastructure, and reforming education. "For three decades, China's growth has spilled over beneficially to its neighbors, but the size of that impetus is now diminishing," the World Bank said in its Tuesday report.
Persons: Aaditya, Mattoo, James Sullivan, Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs, CNBC's, Goldman Organizations: World Bank, Bank, JPMorgan, National, Reform, East Locations: Aaditya Mattoo, East Asia, Pacific, Beijing, Asia, China, beneficially
SHANGHAI, CHINA - MARCH 7, 2023 - The Oriental Pearl Tower, Shanghai Tower, Jinmao Tower and World Financial Center are seen on Lujiazui Street, Shanghai, China, March 7, 2023. China stocks will keep rising after markets in the mainland reopen following the Golden Week break, analysts predicted. Beijing's announcements of economic support last week have fueled China's CSI 300 blue-chip index to rally over 25% in a nine-day winning streak. Then, Hong Kong stocks dropped on Thursday, ending a 6-day winning streak and sparking fears that China's stimulus rally could have started to fizzle out. Beijing's recent stimulus blitz coupled with higher participation from retail investors will likely fuel a longer rally, he said.
Persons: Eugene Hsiao, Shehzad Qazi, Qazi, Shaun Rein, it's, Rein, Ting Lu Organizations: Financial, CSI, of China Equity, Macquarie Capital, China Market Research Locations: SHANGHAI, CHINA, Shanghai, China, Hong Kong
The widening conflict in the Middle East threatens to crimp growth and stoke inflation, experts say. AdvertisementExperts say the escalating war in the Middle East could choke global economic growth and reignite inflation, just as the US is dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, and China is trying to stabilize its beleaguered economy. "War in the Middle East could exacerbate the instabilities in the global economy, further increase the uncertainties, harm disinflationary efforts, and eventually reduce the global GDP growth," he told Business Insider. AdvertisementKaya warned the conflict could accelerate inflation by disrupting international supply chains and causing the cost of energy and shipping to rise. But he emphasized that hurricanes have historically had limited and short-lived impacts on growth and inflation.
Persons: Helene, , Hurricane Helene, Ahmet Kaya, Kaya, Brent, Assaf Razin, Eitan Berglas, Oliver Allen, Allen, that's, Duncan Wrigley, China's, Wrigley Organizations: stoke, Service, UK's National Institute of Economic, Social Research, Eitan, of Economics, Tel Aviv University, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Oxford Locations: Hurricane, China, Israel, Iran, Oxford, China China, Beijing
Until the government's measures pan out, investment strategists are recommending a handful of oversold stocks in China. U.S. hedge fund billionaire David Tepper said Thursday on CNBC's " Squawk Box " that he bought more Chinese stocks after the change in China policy. That hedge fund allocation rose to 7.3% on Tuesday, which saw the largest single day purchases by hedge funds since March 2021, Rubner said. Retail investors account for the majority of trading activity in mainland Chinese stocks, also known as A shares. Mainland Chinese stock exchanges are scheduled to close from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7 for a holiday, which this year commemorates the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic of China.
Persons: Wendy Liu, Rupal Agarwal, Bernstein, David Tepper, Donald Trump, Tepper, Pan Gongsheng, Xi Jinping, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Rubner, Goldman, China hasn't, Li Dongfang, Li, financials, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CSI, JPMorgan, Tal Education, Huawei, People's Bank of China, CNBC, HK Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, Tsingtao, U.S, Zhejiang, Asia, Hong Kong, Beijing, Mainland, People's Republic of China
Wang, chief China equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC's " Street Signs Asia " Friday that the index could rise by another 10%. But she cautioned that more details on Beijing's recent economic stimulus measures were needed for a sustained rally. Chinese stocks rose further after Beijing on Thursday called for halting the real estate slump and a strengthening of monetary and fiscal policy. He said he's bought more Chinese stocks since. "After the break, we would really like to see as soon as possible the execution details on the physical spending and on the market stabilization measures," Wang said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Laura Wang, Wang, Morgan Stanley, CNBC's, Goldman Sachs, David Tepper, he's Organizations: CSI Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, Beijing
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina stimulus details: Timing and swiftness 'very, very critical,' says Morgan StanleyLaura Wang, chief China equity strategist at the investment bank, says "we would really like to see ... the execution details on the fiscal spending and on the market stabilization measures."
Persons: Morgan Stanley Laura Wang Locations: China
Barclays has identified a handful of European stocks poised to benefit from China's anticipated economic stimulus measures. Mainland Chinese stocks jumped on the news. The investment bank suggested that China's current economic climate resembles April 2024, when Chinese and China-exposed stocks experienced a significant rally. According to Barclays, U.K.-headquartered insurer Prudential , cosmetics giant L'Oreal , carmakers BMW and Mercedes , and miner Rio Tinto are among the top European stocks that could benefit from China's stimulus efforts. China's recent economic challenges have been evident, with the country experiencing its longest period of deflation since 1999.
Persons: Anshul Gupta, Larry Hu, Hu, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Evelyn Cheng Organizations: Barclays, People's Bank of China, Prudential, L'Oreal, carmakers BMW, Mercedes, Rio Tinto, U.S, Prudential plc, Macquarie Locations: China, Rio, China's
China optimism is surging. Why some investors are cautious
  + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
A shareholder at a securities hall in Hangzhou, the capital of Zhejiang province in east China, on Sept. 24, 2024. "Markets should place more emphasis on the specifics of the stimulus," Lu said. The People's Bank of China this week cut major interest rates, and announced plans to lower rates for existing mortgage holders. Questions about scaleFor some investment institutions, that's still not enough to move the needle on their China outlook. A survey in September of more than 1,200 companies in China by the U.S.-based China Beige Book found that corporate borrowing declined, despite historic lows in the costs to do so.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Ting Lu, Lu, Nomura's Lu, that's, Paul Christopher, Christopher, Shehzad Qazi, Qazi Organizations: Getty, BEIJING, Shanghai, Nomura, People's Bank of, Finance, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, U.S Locations: Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China, Beijing, People's Bank of China, Wells Fargo, U.S . Federal, U.S
Beijing's latest housing-support measures won't fix China's property crisis, JPMorgan wrote. The nation announced this week that it will reduce mortgage rates and downpayment rules. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementChina's all-out stimulus package will fail to meaningfully reverse ongoing chaos in the nation's property market, JPMorgan said in new research. Though Beijing committed on Tuesday to reduce mortgage rates and downpayment rules, the bank said these efforts will not bolster housing consumption as hoped.
Persons: , Haibin Zhu Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Business Locations: Beijing, China
China needs more than rate cuts to boost economic growth
  + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's slowing economy needs more than interest rate cuts to boost growth, analysts said. He expects Beijing will likely ramp up fiscal stimulus due to weak growth, despite reluctance so far. "The market is forming a medium to long-term expectation on the U.S. growth rate, the inflation rate. As for Chinese government bonds, Ding said the firm has a "neutral" view and expects the Chinese yields to remain relatively low. He pointed out that monetary easing still requires fiscal stimulus "to achieve the effect of expanding credit and transmitting money to the real economy."
Persons: Larry Hu, That's, Edmund Goh, Yifei Ding, Ding, CF40, Pan Gongsheng, Haizhong Chang, Chang Organizations: China Resources, Getty, BEIJING, People's Bank of China, Macquarie, U.S, of Finance, PBOC, Ministry of Finance, Fitch Locations: China, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, abrdn, Beijing, U.S, Invesco
CNBC Daily Open: Some caution might be good for markets
  + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. While analysts think this move may mark the end of China's deflationary streak, many think monetary policy is not enough. How much will oil demand grow? The International Energy Agency thinks oil demand will level off at 106 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.
Persons: Larry Hu, Consumer's, September's, Dow Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, U.S ., People's Bank of China, Macquarie, International Energy Agency, U.S, U.S . Federal, Barclays, Citi Locations: Corte Madera, Corte Madera , California, Asia, Pacific, China, U.S .
By extension, the move in Washington, D.C. could also spell good news for Chinese stocks. High U.S. interest rates relative to China have made it fairly straightforward for global institutions to pick U.S. Treasurys over Chinese stocks. More than lower rates needed Other global investors say Chinese stocks need more than easier monetary policy to become truly attractive. The "government can push interest rates down, but if households don't want to spend the extra income, it won't go into the economy," he said. Earlier this year, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng acknowledged U.S. Fed easing would create room for China to further cut interest rates.
Persons: Steven Sun, Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley, Aaron Costello, Yi Gang, Costello, James Wang, Wang, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, HSBC, HSBC Qianhai Securities, Nasdaq, U.S, Treasury, Cambridge Associates, CNBC, People's Bank of China, UBS Investment Bank Research, UBS, Hang Seng China Enterprises, China Southern Airlines, Hengli Petrochemical, Saudi, Aramco Locations: China's, Washington ,, China, 1H24, Asia, U.S, Beijing, Hang, Shenzhen, Shanghai
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