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☆ We'll remain in goldilocks zone 'a little bit more', says Universa Investment's Mark Spitznagel
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe'll remain in goldilocks zone 'a little bit more', says Universa Investment's Mark SpitznagelMark Spitznagel, Universa Investments founder and CIO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the possibility of a 'black swan' event, the hedge fund founder's outlook for the economy next year, and much more.

Persons: Universa, Mark Spitznagel Mark Spitznagel Organizations: Universa Investments

☆ Collapse risks loom as markets are the most fragile they've been in 20 years, 'Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"The Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb says he's focused on hedging against a market collapse. He said the market is flashing parallels to prior crashes, noting that it is the most fragile in 20 years. He pointed to risks like high debt levels and "crazy" stock prices in an interview with Bloomberg. Nassim Taleb, author of "The Black Swan," the famed treatise on the risks related to improbable events, aired concerns over the state of the market in a recent interview with Bloomberg. Universa Investments is technically "market blind," Taleb said, as the firm employs an investment strategy that disregards short-term market forecasts.

Persons: Swan, Nassim Taleb, he's, —, Taleb, Mark Spitznagel Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Universa

☆ AI largely beat human CEOs in an experiment — but it also got fired more quickly
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Kelsey Vlamis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

AI mostly outperformed human executives in an experiment by University of Cambridge researchers. But AI wasn't as good at making decisions in unexpected "black swan" events. That led to AI getting fired by a virtual board of directors more quickly than humans. Because of that, AI got fired more quickly by a virtual board of directors than its human counterparts, which navigated unexpected situations better. When a "black swan" event occurred, the bot couldn't address it as quickly — or as well — as the human executives and students.

Persons: —, Hamza Mudassir, Mudassir, LLMs Organizations: University of Cambridge, Service, Cambridge, Harvard Business Locations: Cambridge, OpenAI

☆ 3 bullish catalysts could keep the bull rally alive and boost stocks 13% in the coming year, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The two-year-old bull market in stocks could last for another year, NDR strategists said. Median gains in the third year of a bull market are about 13%, the firm said in its analysis. AdvertisementThe latest bull market in stocks may still have a long life ahead of it, according to Ned Davis Research. In one instance, the bull market ended after the Fed reversed its rate cut decision, spooking investors. The S&P 500 has gained 60% since the index entered bull market territory in October 2022.

Persons: That's, —, Ned Davis Organizations: Service, Ned Davis Research, NDR Locations: Europe

☆ The godfather of black-swan hedging explains why mounting US debt and the weaponization of the dollar are leading risks today
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

He criticizes the US for high debt and low growth, leading a fragile financial system. He highlighted the four categories of debt-based countries: those with low growth and high or low debt, and those with high growth and high or low debt. The US is in the category of low growth and high debt. However, if a country accumulates high debt, then continued growth is required to absorb it, he noted. At present, Taleb doesn't believe that the ballooning debt could be solved politically or by increased demand for US bonds.

Persons: Nassim Taleb, —, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Scott Patterson, Patterson, Taleb, It's, Brandon Yarckin, isn't, Mark Spitznagel Organizations: Service, Universa Investments, Bank Locations: Russia, US

☆ The stock market's euphoria-driven record highs are at risk of a painful downturn, 'Black Swan' investor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Spitznagel thinks they should focus instead on lagging drivers that could spur a sharp stock downturn. Advertisement"Black Swan" investor Mark Spitznagel thinks that the stock market's streak of record highs is distracting from a more jarring reality that could come by year-end. In a recent interview with Bloomberg TV, he said investors are currently enjoying a market that's in a "Goldilocks zone." "When the yield curve disinverts and then unverts, the clock starts ticking and that's when you enter black swan territory," Spitznagel told Bloomberg. He has warned of a stock market crash since January 2023, and back in July, he said the market's yearslong rally has become the "greatest bubble in human history," and its bursting would make for a recession.

Persons: Stocks, they've, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, —, That's, capitalizes Organizations: Service, Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg, Universa Investments

☆ 6 Wall Street experts share why investors could be overestimating how much the Fed will cut rates after August's inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The print is causing concern that inflation may not be going away, which would mean higher interest rates than markets expect going forward. Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer, Regan CapitalWeinand says the market's current outlook on rate cuts will only take place if the economy deteriorates significantly. If inflation does slow that much, the Fed would likely cut rates faster than just a quarter percent per meeting over the next 3-6 months," Adams said in an email. "However, the stickiness of service price inflation and shelter inflation suggests the Fed will cut rates slower than financial markets currently price in." This would be a disappointment to short-term bond markets that have priced over 250 bps of rate cuts by the end of 2025."

Persons: Brian Rose, UBS Global Wealth Management Rose, Rose, Skyler Weinand, Regan Capital Weinand, Bill Adams, Adams, Peter Perkins, MRB Partners Perkins, Josh Jamner, ClearBridge Investments Jamner, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli Organizations: Service, CPI, Business, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS Global Wealth, Fed, Comerica Bank, MRB Partners, Investment, ClearBridge Investments, Independent, bps

☆ Ukraine's surprise invasion of Russia hasn't taken the pressure off the most dire front-line battles
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-03 | by ( Jake Epstein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated last week that an objective of the Kursk invasion was to redirect Russian forces away from the Pokrovsk direction. But the Kursk invasion has limited the number of troops available for reinforcement. KIRILL CHUBOTIN/Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty ImagesGeorge Barros, the geospatial-intelligence team lead and a Russia analyst at ISW, said that the Kursk invasion underscores how Moscow left a major portion of its international border undefended. Even though the Kursk invasion may not be forcing Russia to redirect front-line forces from Pokrovsk, that campaign will eventually culminate. These efforts have intensified since the start of the Kursk invasion.

Persons: —, Ukraine's, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Tatarigami, Diego Herrera Carcedo, Putin, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, KIRILL CHUBOTIN, George Barros, Vladimir Putin, Barros, REUTERS Barros Organizations: Service, Kyiv, Business, AP, Institute for, Getty, Ukraine, Publishing, REUTERS Locations: Russia, Moscow, Kursk, Ukraine, Kyiv, Russia's, Ukrainian, Sudzha, Russia's Kursk, Pokrovsk, Anadolu, Russian, Korenevo

☆ Lionsgate Financing Partner Breaks Down Film and TV Funding Venture
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-28 | by ( Lucia Moses | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Film and TV investor Content Partners just announced a new financing arm at a time when some institutional investors are fleeing Hollywood. It kicked off with a deal providing debt financing to Media Capital Technologies to support its backing of Lionsgate's film slate. Content Partners Capital (CPC) is targeting up to five deals a year of up to $100 million each in debt financing for film and TV companies. Lordo said Content Partners saw a void to help entertainment companies that are stuck in a financing bind, unable to get bank or private-equity backing. The era of Peak TV is over: Big entertainment companies have reduced spending as streaming hasn't made up for losses in linear TV.

Persons: there's, Alphonse Lordo, Lordo, they've, Mark Cuban, Todd Wagner, It's Organizations: Service, Content Partners, Media Capital Technologies, Lionsgate, Starz, Business, Content Partners Capital, CPC, Truist Securities, Partners, Monroe, Fortress Investment Group, Media, Revolution Studios, CSI television Locations: Hollywood

☆ Don't get too excited about this latest inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stocks had a strong showing Tuesday after the latest U.S. wholesale inflation report came out. In other words, just because PPI rose less than expected, it doesn't mean investors should expect a tame CPI report on Wednesday. "Financial markets seem to react too much every month to PPI," said Stanley, the bank's chief economist. " The S & P 500 closed Tuesday's session nearly 2% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.4%. The major averages are now well above the lows seen in Aug. 5, when the Dow and S & P 500 suffered their biggest one-day pullbacks since 2022.

Persons: Stocks, Stephen Stanley, Stanley, Dow, David Russell, We're Organizations: ISI, PPI, Santander U.S, CPI, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with 'The Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with 'The Black Swan' author Nassim TalebNassim Taleb, Universa Investments distinguished scientific advisor and ‘The Black Swan’ author, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, what to make of the market sell-off, the Fed's inflation fight, interest rate outlook, bitcoin's volatility, and more.

Persons: Swan, Nassim Taleb Nassim Taleb, ‘ Organizations: Universa Investments

☆ 'The Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb on bitcoin: Not a hedge against your assets melting
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'The Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb on bitcoin: Not a hedge against your assets meltingNassim Taleb, Universa Investments distinguished scientific advisor and ‘The Black Swan’ author, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, what to make of the market sell-off, the Fed's inflation fight, interest rate outlook, bitcoin's volatility, and more.

Persons: Swan, Nassim Taleb, Taleb, ‘ Organizations: Universa Investments

☆ Why an emergency rate cut would be a mistake for the Fed, according to Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed would be making a mistake in delivering an emergency rate-cut, Mohamed El-Erian said. Traders see a higher chance the Fed could trim rates over the next week in response to weakening data. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve would be making a mistake if it delivered an emergency rate cut. Amid Monday's sell-off Bloomberg reported that markets see a 60% chance the Fed could issue a cut ahead of its scheduled policy meeting. AdvertisementGiving in to the market's demands to ease monetary policy would constitute another mistake for the Fed, El-Erian said.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, —, Ben Kirby Organizations: Bloomberg, Traders, Service, Fed, Thornburg Investment Management Locations: El

☆ 'House of the Dragon' just introduced a new character who'll play a key role later. Here's what to know about Lohar.
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Palmer Haasch | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

"House of the Dragon" threw one new fascinating character in its season two finale that will have great importance down the line — Triarchy Admiral Lohar. But to do so, he has to win the respect of Admiral Lohar, the commander of the Triarchy fleet. Toward the end of the episode, Lohar and Tyland sail together with the Triarchy fleet, presumably bound for the Velaryon blockade. Eventually, a captain from Tyrosh captures him — but it's Fleet Admiral Sharako Lohar who claims him as a prisoner. In addition to attacking the Velaryon fleet, the Triarchy forces also made land on Driftmark, attacking a town called Spicetown.

Persons: —, Lohar, Rhaenyra, Tyland, Tyland's, Admiral Lohar, mispronounces, he's, Abigail Thorn, Thorn, Ship's virility, Rhaenyra's, Viserys, Sharako Lohar, Prince Jacaerys Velaryon, Hugh, Ulf, Addam, Nettles, Lohar —, Prince Viserys, Bambarro, Bazanne, Martin, Myr, Lysandro Rogare, Rogare's, Larra Organizations: Service, Business, Lohar, Tyland, Aegon, Younger, King Aegon, Max Locations: Lannisport, Essos, Lohar, Pentos, Lys, Spicetown, Hull, Myr, Westeros

☆ Bitcoin tumbles as risk assets plunge in global market rout
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bitcoin dropped on Monday amid the global market meltdown. Crypto has not been spared the carnage as traders eye a growing risk of a US recession. The sell-off in crypto comes as risk assets plunge in a global market rout caused by worries over the state of the US economy. Some market observers have said that the historic market rout could prompt an emergency rate cut from the central bank in the next week. Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropped 12% early Monday in its worst single-day decline since 1987, and markets in South Korea and Europe also plunged.

Persons: Bitcoin, Crypto, —, Gracy Chen Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of America Locations: South Korea, Europe

☆ Delta is finally starting emerging from chaos. Why didn’t it learn from Southwest’s meltdown?
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The situation finally appeared to be returning to normal Wednesday: Delta canceled only 51 flights as of 6 am ET, according to tracking service FlightAware, or only about 1% of its schedule. But it could still take days to get all Delta passengers who had been booked on those canceled flights to where they wanted to go. Delta passengers try to find their bags after canceled and delayed flights at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport on Monday. But it’s not like Delta executives were sitting on the sidelines during Southwest’s struggles thinking, “’Well we really are an amazing airline. Travelers wait in line at the Southwest Airlines ticketing counter at Nashville International Airport after the airline canceled thousands of flights in Nashville, Tennessee in December 2022.

Persons: New York CNN — It’s, Delta, Jessica McGowan, Kathleen Bangs, Ed Bastian, it’s, ’ ” Bangs, Seth Herald, We’ve, Chris Perry, Bangs, she’d, aren’t, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, Delta Air Lines, Delta Connection, Delta, Department of Transportation, Hartsfield, Jackson Atlanta International Airport, CNN, “, Southwest Airlines, Nashville International, Getty, Southwest Locations: New York, Atlanta, Southwest, Nashville , Tennessee, AFP

☆ Stock investors are staring down a bearish trifecta that could spark a 12% market drop by October, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

He's steering clear of Big Tech stocks, and for now he's only bullish on "dull, boring, and predictable" names. Tech stocks now account for highest portion of the S&P 500 since the early 2000s, according to an analysis from Société Générale. AdvertisementAnother risk to stocks lies in interest rates, Blain said, as borrowing costs look poised to stay higher for longer. "There is an awful lot of people in the financial markets who just don't understand that zero interest rates and ultra-low interest rates are not normal," Blain added. AdvertisementThe final risk Blain is eyeing is the upcoming presidential election, which contains a handful of uncertainties that could batter stocks, Blain said.

Persons: Bill Blain, Blain isn't, —, that's, Blain, Biden, he's, Générale, John Hussman, I've, eyeing, We've, Morgan Stanley, Stifel, Richard Bernstein Organizations: Big Tech, Service, China, Nasdaq, Tech, stoke, Richard Bernstein Advisors

☆ The 'greatest bubble in human history' is close to bursting, Black Swan investor Mark Spitznagel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bearish investor Mark Spitznagel predicts stocks could soon lose over half their value in a steep sell-off. His fund, Universa Investments, has made billions from past stock market crises. AdvertisementBlack Swan investor Mark Spitznagel says the stock market is heading for a historic sell-off, reiterating an uber-bearish warning for investors who are getting comfortable with steady stock gains amid the frenzy for AI. Spitznagel said the years-long rally in the stock market amounts to the "greatest bubble in human history" in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal. He made billions during the 2008 stock market crash, the 2015 Flash Crash, and at the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020.

Persons: Mark Spitznagel, —, Spitznagel, it's, he's Organizations: Universa Investments, Service, Wall Street, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Universa

☆ Natalie Portman explains how Rihanna gave her the post-divorce boost she needed
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Lisa Respers France | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

CNN —Natalie Portman is not done fangirling for Rihanna. As they embraced, and Portman told the singer, “I love you!”“I am a f***ing fan,” Rihanna replied. The singer also told Portman she was “one of the hottest b**ches in Hollywood.”“I’m going to faint,” Portman told Rihanna. “I’m going to black out.”The Oscar-winner went on to tell Rihanna how she listens to her music all the time. Portman and Millepied are parents to son and daughter.

Persons: Natalie Portman, Rihanna, Portman, “, ” Rihanna, ” Portman, “ I’m, ”, Jimmy Fallon, Benjamin Millepied, Mila Kunis, Millepied Organizations: CNN, Paris Locations: Hollywood

☆ Using options to gain upside stock exposure with less risk during tumultuous times
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Black swans and grey Swans refer to events that profoundly impact markets and economies due to their unpredictability and importantly potential for substantial disruption. Generally, black swans are rare and lie outside regular expectations, but they have a significant impact when they occur. Their rarity is what makes them unique and their impact, when they do occur, is significant. The 2008 "Great Financial Crisis", sometimes abbreviated as "The GFC", the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and the COVID-19 pandemic have been described by some as "black swans". Still, there are ways to maintain some upside exposure without taking all the downside risk other than hedging.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Biden Organizations: Sunday, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ GM reports best U.S. quarterly sales since 2020
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-02 | by ( Michael Wayland | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Detroit automaker on Tuesday reported sales of 696,086 for the second quarter, up 0.6% from a year earlier and its highest quarterly units sold since the fourth quarter of 2020. Still, EVs made up only 3.2% of its total second-quarter sales. Sales of GM's full-size pickup trucks were roughly 229,000 during the second quarter, up about 6% from a year earlier and the best quarterly sales since 2021. GM's second-quarter sales are expected to slightly outpace the overall industry. Kia, which reports sales on a monthly basis, reported a 6.5% decrease in its June sales.

Persons: EVs, Edmunds, CDK, Jessica Caldwell, Caldwell Organizations: DETROIT —, Motors, Detroit, Auto, Cox Automotive, CDK, GM, Asbury Automotive Group, AutoNation Inc, Inc, Lithia Motors Inc, Sonic Automotive Inc, Automotive News, Toyota, Hyundai, Kia Locations: Lincolnwood , Illinois, DETROIT, North America

☆ Natalie Portman’s birthday gave her the chance to thank friends for lifting her up ‘again and again’
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( Lisa Respers France | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

CNN —For her birthday this year, Natalie Portman had a gift for some of her closest friends. The actress used her birthday post to thank them for their support. The appreciation comes months after Portman reportedly finalized her divorce from dancer and choreographer Benjamin Millepied. The pair married in 2012, two years after meeting on the set of her hit 2010 film “Black Swan” on which he served as choreographer. “He’s the best actor.

Persons: Natalie Portman, ”, Portman, Benjamin Millepied, Mila Kunis, Golden, “ Benjamin, ‘, Pffsh, ” Portman, “, It’s, Millepied, Aleph, Amalia Organizations: CNN, Golden Globe

☆ Middle East's impact on markets is unpredictable, says 'The Black Swan' author Nassim Nicholas Taleb
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMiddle East's impact on markets is unpredictable, says 'The Black Swan' author Nassim Nicholas TalebNassim Nicholas Taleb, author of "The Black Swan" and distinguished scientific advisor at Universa Investments, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss geopolitical risk to investment, outlooks on stocks vs. bonds, and more.

Persons: Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb Organizations: Universa Investments

☆ 'Black Swan' author Taleb says people should worry about Middle East events but not investors
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

People should pay attention to the events in the Middle East from a humanitarian perspective but disregard them as investors, according to author Nassim Taleb. "I would say to investors to basically ignore what's going on in the Middle East and as an individual to worry," the "Black Swan" author told CNBC's Kelly Evans during an interview Monday on "The Exchange." "The connection between the markets and these events is completely unpredictable, even more unpredictable than the events themselves." In addition to his market work, Taleb is a Lebanese American essayist whose seminal work, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," warns against trying to predict the unpredictable. He largely has advocated an approach to investing that hedges against unusual events such as the financial crisis of 2008-09.

Persons: Nassim Taleb, CNBC's Kelly Evans, Taleb, Ebrahim Raisi, You've Organizations: Universa Investments, Dow Jones, JPMorgan Chase Locations: Lebanese American, Israel

☆ From Wall Street to Silicon Valley, AI specialists are a hot commodity
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Today's big story examines how recruitment for AI talent is ramping up in the tech industry and on Wall Street . AdvertisementEager to understand how to leverage the tech, companies are racing to scoop up AI specialists. But Big Tech companies aren't just competing with each other. With so many venture capitalists eager to fund AI ideas , some AI talent are starting their own companies. Businesses are already fighting the rule, but if it survives the courts it could mean even more movement of AI talent.

Persons: —, We've, we've, Justin Sullivan, Chelsea Jia Feng, Eager, Kali Hays, Ellen Thomas, Banks, it's, Getty, Sean Gladwell, Olga Pyrkina, Tyler Le, Amy Hood, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Johannes Eisele, Swan, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, David Einhorn, there's, Dimitrios Kambouris, Leon Neal, Abanti Chowdhury, Bill Gates, Gates, BI Gates, Satya Nadella, Zs, Herman Miller Eames, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Business, Service, Getty Images, Anadolu Agency, Big Tech, Johannes, Getty, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Research, Capital Economics, Greenlight, Staff, Microsoft, BI, Paramount Locations: California, AFP, America, New York, London, Chicago

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