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The dollar clung to seven-week highs against major currencies on Tuesday as investors ponder the outlook for U.S. rates after a strong jobs report last week dashed bets for large rate cuts, while escalating tensions in Middle East dented risk sentiment. Traders have drastically shifted their monetary easing expectations from the Federal Reserve this year. That has kept the dollar on the front foot and surging to a multi-week high against the euro, sterling and the yen. The New Zealand dollar was 0.3% higher at $0.6144 ahead of the monetary policy decision on Wednesday. A majority of economists in a Reuters poll last week said the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rate by 50 basis points.
Persons: Kieran Williams, Louis, Alberto Musalem, Shigeru Ishiba Organizations: Federal Reserve, Asia FX, InTouch, Reserve Bank of St, Treasury, Bank of, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Locations: Middle East, Asia, China, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
The yen carry trade unwind in August led to a temporary market pullback and recovery. AdvertisementThe foreign exchange market has been eerily quiet since the yen carry trade unwind. Much of the moves from the yen carry unwinding witnessed in August happened at this layer, Barrett said. But what we've seen in the yen carry trade is only the beginning, Barrett said. "Now, you may not think that's a yen carry trade, but it's absolutely the purest yen carry trade because all of that pension fund money started off as yen," Barrett said.
Persons: , David Barrett, allocators, unwinding, Barrett, It's, it's, Harris, David, Trump Organizations: Service, EBC Financial, Bank of, Bloomberg, Big Tech, Nvidia Locations: Bank of Japan, Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNomura: Japan economy still doing well, foresee BoJ December rate hikeYujiro Goto of Nomura expects the dollar-yen cross to trade between 140 and 145 as concerns over new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's policies dissipates. Japanese businesses remain resilient, paving the way for a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December 2024.
Persons: Goto, Nomura, Shigeru Organizations: Email Nomura, Bank of Japan Locations: Japan
The euro languished not far from a three-week trough reached in the previous session, after normally hawkish European Central Bank policymaker Isabel Schnabel took a dovish tone on inflation, cementing bets for a rate cut this month. Currently, traders lay 34.6% odds of another 50 basis-point U.S. rate cut on Nov. 7, after the Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a super-sized reduction last month. "I do think that if the payrolls report overall is not too shabby tomorrow night, then we will see that pricing (for a 50 basis-point cut) coming in quite significantly." The dollar added 0.09% to 146.575 yen after earlier reaching 146.885 for the first time since Sept. 3. The euro was little changed at $1.10455, sitting not far from Wednesday's low of $1.10325, a level last seen on Sept. 12.
Persons: European Central Bank policymaker Isabel Schnabel, Ray Attrill, Attrill, Asahi Noguchi, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Private U.S, ADP, Fed, National Australia Bank, Dovish Bank of Japan Locations: U.S, Iran, Israel
Japan's Nikkei 225 jumps 2.5% as yen weakens
  + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Anniek Bao | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Pedestrians cross a road in front of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), operated by Japan Exchange Group Inc. (JPX), in Tokyo, Japan, on Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020. Japan stocks led Asian markets higher Thursday, after Wall Street inched higher amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Japan's Nikkei 225 opened 2.57% higher while the broad-based Topix added 2%. Australia's seasonally adjusted Judo Bank Composite PMI data came in at 49.6 in September, lower from the 51.7 in August, falling past the 50 neutral mark. Other data on tap include Japan's PMI data for September and August retail sales from Hong Kong.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, Ishiba, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, Japan Exchange Group Inc, Nikkei, U.S, Bank of Japan, PMI, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Economists Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Hong Kong
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailComgest: 'no real need' for Bank of Japan to adjust monetary policyRichard Kaye of Comgest believes that monetary policy from the Bank of Japan will remain accommodative since inflation remains well controlled. He maintains that the strength of Japan's economy lies in its small companies, and hopes for potential reforms to ease succession planning in these companies.
Persons: Richard Kaye, Comgest Organizations: Bank of Japan, Bank of Locations: Bank of Japan
Despite dovish comments from Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba leading to a sharp plunge in the yen , market analysts aren't budging from their Bank of Japan policy expectations for the longer term. The yen slid to as weak as 147.15 against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, after Ishiba told reporters that the current economic climate does not require an additional rate increase. The prime minister's comments marked a drastic change in tone compared with the messaging on his recent campaign trail. On Thursday morning, BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi said that the central bank should continue its accommodative monetary policy for the time being. He noted that it will take a while to change the public's perception that prices will not increase significantly in the future.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, aren't budging, Ishiba, Kazuo Ueda —, Abe Shinzo's, Stefan Angrick, Angrick, Asahi Noguchi Organizations: Bank of, U.S, Bank of Japan, Liberal Democratic Party, Moody's, CNBC Locations: Bank of Japan
Shigeru Ishiba, the man set to become the next leader of Japan, has made a career as a political outsider and opponent of party orthodoxy. However, some experts doubt that the former defense minister will manage to govern as such. The election ultimately came down to a runoff in which Ishiba defeated economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, who presented herself as the more Abenomics-aligned candidate. Japan's parliament is expected to formally vote Ishiba into the role Tuesday. He also reportedly suggested he would follow Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's approach of trying to pull Japan out of years of deflationary pressures.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, Shinzo Abe, Abe, Tobias Harris, Ishiba, Sanae Takaichi, he's, Sayuri Shirai, Takaichi, there's, Fumio, Shirai Organizations: Liberal Democratic Party, Bank of, LDP, Japan Foresight, Keio University Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Abenomics
Asia-Pacific markets are mixed on Tuesday, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the recent outsized cuts enacted by the U.S. central bank should not be interpreted as a sign that future moves will be as aggressive. "If the economy performs as expected, that would mean two more rate cuts this year, a total of 50 [basis points] more." The current federal funds rate stands at 4.75%-5%, with the expected additional 50 basis points in cuts set to take the Fed's benchmark interest rate to 4.25%-4.5% at the end of 2024. In Asia, traders will focus on the Bank of Japan's third quarter Tankan survey, which measures the level of business optimism among large Japanese companies. As such, the member said, "the Bank will not raise its policy interest rate when financial and capital markets are unstable."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner Organizations: Federal, U.S, Bank of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Liberal Democratic Party, Bank, Reuters Locations: Asia, Pacific, Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIshiba's win seen as a 'positive development' for Japan's banking sector: Goldman Sachs analystMakoto Kuroda, Japan financials analyst at Goldman Sachs, says incoming Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is seen as the "continuity candidate who is less inclined to interfere with the independence of the [Bank of Japan]."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Makoto Kuroda, Shigeru Ishiba Organizations: Bank of Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan
Japan's August retail sales climbed 2.8% year on year, beating Reuters poll estimates of a 2.3% rise, and up from a revised 2.7% rise in July. Ishida had beaten Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi in the final round of the Liberal Democratic Party election on Friday, sending the yen into a volatile session. A higher interest rate typically strengthens the yen and puts pressure on Japanese stock markets, which are heavily weighted by exporters. Chinese rally puts pressureThe Nikkei's decline on Monday also comes at a time when China's markets have been surging. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, Ishida, Sanae Takaichi, Ryota Abe, Takaichi, Ishiba, Abe, Steven Glass, CNBC's Organizations: Economic, Liberal Democratic Party, Bank of Japan, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, CNBC, Bank of, Pella Funds Management, CSI Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Pella, Hong
Yen steadies, dollar slips as China reaches for stimulus
  + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Japanese 10,000 yen banknotes and U.S. one-hundred dollar banknotes are arranged for a photograph in Tokyo, Japan. The yen slipped about 0.4% to 142.75 per dollar after jumping 1.8% on Friday. European inflation data on Tuesday and Chinese data due later on Monday are also keenly awaited. The New Zealand dollar was up 0.3% at $0.6360 after hitting its highest since December on Friday. "The trend over next year or so is for the dollar to go down," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, Ishiba, Ray Attrill, Joe Capurso Organizations: Liberal Democratic Party, NHK, Bank of Japan, National, New, New Zealand, U.S, U.S . Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Locations: Tokyo, Japan, National Australia, China, U.S .
Chinese markets clocked their best week in almost 16 years as the mainland’s CSI 300 rallied 15.7% this week, buoyed by several economic stimulus measures by the central bank. The last time the index saw a bigger weekly gain was the week ending Nov. 14, 2008. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index recorded a weekly gain of 12.75%, making it the index’s best week since February 1998, according to FactSet data. Tokyo’s headline inflation rate eased to 2.2%, down from August’s 2.6%. A slate of fresh U.S. economic data also supported the market’s gains, with weekly jobless claims falling more than expected, pointing to a steady labor market.
Persons: Hong, PBOC, Shigeru Ishiba, Sanae Takaichi, Korea’s Kospi, Australia’s, Organizations: CSI, People’s Bank of China, Google, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Reuters, Japan’s Nikkei, of Japan, U.S ., Micron Technology, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: China, Shanghai, Asia, Pacific, Tokyo, August’s, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's time for Japan's political leaders to have 'new thinking' about the country's economySayuri Shirai of Keio University and a former board member at the Bank of Japan says that Japan's next prime minister has to do "much more" about the country's environmental and climate policies.
Persons: Sayuri Shirai, Japan's Organizations: Keio University, Bank of Japan
CNBC Daily Open: More all-time highs? Yes please
  + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Why are Treasury yields rising? Treasury yields tend to move in tandem with interest rates. When the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, it's not unreasonable to expect Treasury yields to dip.
Persons: Hong, it's, they've, Jeff Cox, Sam Altman, Bret Taylor, Sarah Friar, OpenAI's, Ishiba, Shigeru Ishiba, Sanae Takaichi Organizations: CNBC, Major, CSI, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Altman, PM, Liberal Democratic, Bank of, People's Bank of China, Barclays Locations: Major U.S, Asia, Pacific
CNN —Japan’s ruling party will elect its new leader Friday, and the winner will become the country’s next prime minister. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is not in the running after his surprise announcement last month that he would step down following a series of political scandals that fueled calls for him to resign. With the upcoming US presidential election, the new prime minister will navigate Japan’s relations with a new American leader at a time of growing security challenges in Asia, including an increasingly assertive China and a belligerent North Korea. Koizumi, 43, is the US-educated, charismatic son of popular former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, and could be Japan’s youngest prime minister of the post-war period. He sits on the more progressive wing of the conservative party.
Persons: CNN —, Shinjiro Koizumi, Shigeru Ishiba, Fumio Kishida, haven’t, Kishida, , Koizumi, ” Yu Uchiyama, Margaret Thatcher, Shinzo Abe, , Junichiro Koizumi, acceding, Ishiba Organizations: CNN, Liberal Democratic Party, LDP, Partnership, Tokyo University, Reuters, Bank of, NATO Locations: Japan, China, Japan’s, American, Asia, North Korea, Pacific, South Korea, Bank of Japan
City of London skyline on 10th June 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. LONDON — European stocks are expected to open in positive territory Thursday, spurred on by gains in Asia-Pacific markets overnight. The positive start to the trading day anticipated in Europe comes after Asia-Pacific markets rose overnight, with markets in the region led by Japan's Nikkei 225 and Chinese markets extending gains. Japan's Nikkei climbed 2.12%, while the broad based Topix was up 1.65%, as the Bank of Japan released minutes of its July meeting.
Persons: Germany's DAX Organizations: LONDON, CAC, IG, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan, China's CSI Locations: London, United Kingdom, The City, Asia, Pacific, Europe
Bank of Japan board members are split over the future path of interest rates, minutes of the central bank's monetary policy meeting in July showed. The board also pointed out that import prices had turned positive again, and upside risks to prices required attention. Some board members pointed out that "it was appropriate for the Bank to make moderate adjustments" given such risks. Another member pointed out that medium-to long-term inflation expectations were not anchored at 2%, and prices remained vulnerable to downside risks. As such, the BOJ should avoid a situation where the market expectations for future rate hikes "increase excessively."
Organizations: Bank of, Bank of Japan, Bank Locations: Bank of Japan, Tokyo
Dollar firm following sharp rebound as Fed speakers eyed
  + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Earlier this week, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said policymakers "can't be behind the curve" if the economy is to have a soft landing. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the central bank needn't go on a "mad dash" to lower rates. Later Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives pre-recorded remarks at a conference in New York, where New York Fed President John Williams also speaks. Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook take to the podium at various other venues as well. Minutes from the Bank of Japan's July meeting, when the central bank raised short-term interest rates, showed policymakers were divided on how quickly the central bank should raise interest rates further.
Persons: Adriana Kugler, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, I'm, it's, Kenneth Crompton, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Susan Collins, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, NAB's Crompton, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed, Atlanta Fed, National Australia Bank, New York Fed, Boston, Weekly U.S, Traders, Bank of Japan's, Swiss Locations: New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLDP election unlikely to affect small-cap Japanese stocks, but it might affect the Yen: AmundiHiromi Ishihara of Amundi Japan discusses how the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party presidential election might affect the Japanese markets, future interest rate policy by the Bank of Japan, and her year-end target for the Yen.
Persons: Amundi Hiromi Ishihara Organizations: Amundi, Japanese Liberal Democratic, Bank of Japan Locations: Amundi Japan
The Australian dollar hovered close to its highest level of the year on Tuesday, with the central bank set to hold policy steady later and traders focused on any hints of potential near-term easing. The Australian dollar hovered close to its highest level of the year on Tuesday, with the central bank set to hold policy steady later and traders focused on any hints of potential near-term easing. The yen edged up to 143.45 per dollar, but remained close to the center of its September range of 147.20 to 139.58, a more than one-year peak reached on Sept. 16. The yen has retreated amid waning bets for aggressive tightening by the BOJ, particularly after governor Ueda struck a cautious tone of Friday, saying the central bank would spend some time monitoring global growth risks. The BoE kept rates unchanged last Thursday, with its governor saying the central bank had to be "careful not to cut too fast or by too much".
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, , Pan Gongsheng, Ueda, Sterling, BoE Organizations: U.S, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, People's Bank of China, P Global Locations: China
Bitcoin jumps while Japan holiday dulls most currencies
  + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged last week and indicated it was not in a hurry to hike them again. That decision, coming just days after the Fed's 50 basis points rate cut, put a pause to the yen's sharp gains this month. With Japan closed for Autumnal Equinox Day, the main driver of trade was expectations around further Fed rate cuts and the gains those have spurred in equities, commodity currencies and other risk assets. The Fed's rate cut "appears to have calmed market fears of a U.S. recession", Goldman Sachs said in a note. Meanwhile, the majority of economists polled by Reuters anticipate two more 25 bps rate cuts at the Fed's final two meetings this year.
Persons: Bitcoin, Goldman Sachs, Christopher Waller, Fumio Kishida, Takaichi —, , Shigeru Ishiba, Shinjiro Koizumi, Junichiro Koizumi, Takaichi, pare Organizations: Federal, Bank of Japan, Japan, U.S, U.S ., FedWatch, Treasury, Reuters, House Republicans, Liberal Democratic Party, Barclays, The Bank of Locations: United States, Japan, U.S, The Bank of England
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJapan's LDP election: Takaichi win would have 'biggest implications' on BOJ policy, strategist saysMitul Kotecha, Barclays' head of FX and emerging markets macro strategy in Asia, says there would be pressure on the Bank of Japan to hike rates "less aggressively than would've been anticipated" or even a "delay in a January move."
Persons: Takaichi, Mitul Kotecha, would've Organizations: Barclays, Bank of Japan Locations: Asia
Sheets of newly-designed Japanese 10,000 yen banknotes move through a machine at the National Printing Bureau Tokyo plant in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, June 19, 2024. Persistent weakness in the yen is raising concerns about the potential for a resurgence in cost-push inflation, likely weighing on private consumption. Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said authorities are "always watching markets" as a renewed build-up of yen carry trades could heighten market volatility, public broadcaster NHK quoted him as saying in an interview that ran on Friday. Mimura said yen carry trades built up in the past are likely to have been mostly unwound, according to NHK. We are always watching markets to ensure that does not happen," Mimura was quoted as saying.
Persons: Atsushi Mimura, Mimura, Masato Kanda, Yen Organizations: National Printing Bureau, NHK, Bank of Japan Locations: National Printing Bureau Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Yen nurses losses as BOJ meets, dollar dogged by rate outlook
  + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Japanese 10,000 yen, left, and US 100 dollar banknotes arranged for a photograph in Tokyo, Japan, on Friday, May 10, 2024. It has been a tough week for the yen, with the euro gaining 2.2% to 159.46 as speculators booked profit on recent long yen positions. The dollar was up 1.4% for the week at 142.84 yen , though off an overnight high of 143.95. "As such, there is scope to further raise the policy rate while keeping financial conditions accommodative," she said. "The recent financial market ructions and the upcoming Liberal Democratic Party election may make the BOJ more cautious about raising."
Persons: Samara Hammoud, Kazuo Ueda, Sterling Organizations: Bank of, U.S ., CBA, 25bp, Liberal Democratic Party, U.S Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan, Samara, China, U.S . Federal, Bank of England
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