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Morning Bid: Watching what the ECB giveth
  + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( )   time to read: +2 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan. The forward-looking flash November PMIs due out globally should help investors assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts will begin. Interest rate futures show the market is pricing in rate cuts by April and more aggressively so in June . Later on Thursday, Sweden's central bank will announce its latest policy decision in what is expected to be a very close call on whether to hike again. A Reuters poll showed 10 of 19 economists looked for a rise, while market pricing is leaning against a move.
Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, haven't, Mario Centeno, Joachim Nagel's, Christine Lagarde's, Jeremy Hunt's, Van Haaren, ECB's Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, Francois Villeroy de, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Vidya, European Central, PMI, ECB, Reuters, Ubezpieczen SA, Virgin Money, Bank of France, Thomson Locations: Japan, United States, Britain, U.S, Sweden's
Morning Bid: Thanksgiving starters of AI and oil
  + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( )   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Thanksgiving may make for a clipped U.S. markets week, but there's plenty to chew on around the world before then - and a feast of intrigue in the artificial intelligence space. His plans include shutting the central bank, ditching the peso and dollarizing the economy and slashing spending with potentially painful reforms. The risk premium between German and Italian 10-year yields tightened to 170 bps - the lowest since Sept. 21.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Sam Altman, That's, thrall, Javier Milei, Milei, Jeremy Hunt, Andrew Bailey ,, Francois Villeroy de, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Big Tech, Nvidia, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank, Bayer, Federal Reserve Bank of England, Andrew Bailey , Bank of France, Bank of Spain, Technologies, Keysight Technologies, Holdings Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, OPEC, Tokyo, Europe, Canada, Francois Villeroy de Galhau
Morning Bid: Japanese stocks party like it's 1990
  + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( )   time to read: +4 min
A man walks past an electronic board displaying Japan's 10-year government bonds level, the current Japanese Yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and Nikkei share average, outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, October 31, 2023. It's been a mixed start for most of Asia in this holiday-truncated week, though Japanese shares extended their bull streak to hit highs not seen since 1990. The Nikkei is up more than 8% so far this month, and almost 29% for the year so far. The entire market capitalisation of the Topix is 454 trillion yen ($3.03 trillion), yet Japanese companies held 555 trillion yen in internal reserves at the end of the financial year. Recent surveys show inflation expectations are finally picking up which may prompt households to invest some of the 1,000 trillion yen they currently keep in cash and deposits into equities and bonds.
Persons: Kim Kyung, It's, financials, de, de Cos, Bank of England Governor Bailey, Fed's Barkin, Wayne Cole, Christopher Cushing Organizations: U.S ., Nikkei, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan's, Hamas, Tech, Nvidia, Futures, PPI, Bank of France, Bank of Spain, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Israel, United States, Gaza, de Galhau
ECB rates to stay unchanged for next few quarters -Villeroy
  + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( )   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank's interest rates have reached a plateau where they will likely remain for the next few quarters, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday, dismissing rate cut talk as premature. The ECB broke a streak of 10 consecutive hikes last month by holding rates steady, prompting investors to turn their attention to when rate cuts could come. The ECB aims to steer euro zone inflation towards its 2% target by 2025, though Villeroy insisted the number was an average and he was not fixated on hitting 2.0% precisely. Euro zone inflation has fallen quickly in recent months as the economy has slowed, though Villeroy said a recession could be avoided and a "soft landing" seemed more likely. ($1 = 0.9168 euros)Reporting by David Milliken, writing by Leigh Thomas, editing by Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Sarah Meyssonnier, Villeroy, David Milliken, Leigh Thomas, Christina Fincher Organizations: France, Bank of France, REUTERS, ECB, Society of Professional, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, French, London, Gaza, Israel
Putin and Xi’s strengthening bond has a weakness
  + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Lisa Jucca | )   time to read: +4 min
The $190 billion two-way trade relationship is up 29% since 2021, and has roughly doubled since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. A warm meeting between Putin and Xi will reaffirm China’s intention to carry on this robust business. Yet Russia’s lack of viable trade avenues makes its leader look more like a vassal than a peer to the Chinese president. Follow @LJucca on XCONTEXT NEWSRussian President Vladimir Putin is attending the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing on Oct. 17-18 where he is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. China and Russia declared a "no limits" partnership in February 2022 during a previous Putin visit to Beijing, just days before Moscow troops launched an invasion of Ukraine.
Persons: Vladimir Putin’s, Xi Jinping, Brent, Putin, Xi, Vladimir Putin, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, People’s, Reuters Graphics, Bank of France, Centre for Research, Energy, Clean, HK, Forum, Soviet Union, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Beijing, Ukraine, People’s Republic, Crimea, Reuters Graphics Moscow, Russia, Europe, U.S, Republic, China, Hague, Moscow
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCriticism of European Central Bank is unwarranted, says Bank of France's de GalhauFrançois Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Bank of France and ECB member, discusses his current perspectives on the European Central Bank's monetary policy.
Persons: Galhau Organizations: European Central Bank, France's, Bank of France, ECB, Central
Morning Bid: Fed's hawkish pause keeps pressure on markets
  + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( )   time to read: +3 min
Global markets have been feeling the heat as U.S. bond yields surged and a strengthened dollar hit a six-month high following the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone last week. The euro zone central bank also struck a relatively dovish tone. But markets will have plenty of material to pore over this week as they try to glean future Fed moves. In the euro zone, ECB President Christine Lagarde kicks off a string of speeches and remarks this week. Markets are expecting that the euro zone's central bank is done hiking.
Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Brigid Riley, Neel Kashkari, Christine Lagarde, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Isabel Schnabel, Fed's Neel Kashkari, Edmund Klamann Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, Brigid, Brigid Riley Investors, Global, Federal Reserve, U.S, Minneapolis, China, HK, ECB policymaker, Bank of France, ECB, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S, Europe, Britain, Switzerland, Japan, China, Hollywood
Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau delivers a speech during the annual meeting of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises leaders at the Bank of France in Paris, France, October 22, 2021. "Gasoline consumption at the pump represents roughly 5% of our total consumption, so it is a small part of total inflation, even if it is what is most visible," he told France Inter radio. "I will say it again this morning, our forecast and our commitment is to bring inflation towards 2% by 2025," he added. Villeroy also reiterated that ECB rates were at a good level and called for patience. "We have passed the peak of inflation, there even seem to be a turnaround in underlying inflation (...) now we have to be perseverant, keep rates at this level for as long as it takes," he said.
Persons: Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Sarah Meyssonnier, Francois Villeroy de, Villeroy, Patience, Sybille de La Hamaide, Gilles Guillaume Our Organizations: France, Bank of France, REUTERS, Rights, European Central Bank, ECB, France Inter, Brent, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Ukraine
PARIS, July 20 (Reuters) - France's post-Brexit success in attracting banks from London to Paris has exceeded expectations and is increasingly showing up in the country's balance of payments, the central bank said on Thursday. Those efforts are paying off as a number of Wall Street banks like Bank of America or JPMorgan have bulked up in Paris, setting up regional trading hubs in the French capital. "Paris' post-Brexit success has been spectacular, it's recently been picking up and exceeds our expectations," Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau told journalists as he presented an annual report on France's balance of payments. The trend is even showing up in balance of payments data with financial firms relocated from London to Paris contributing 1.5 billion euros ($1.7 billion) to France's financial services surplus last year, the central bank said. Reuters Graphics($1 = 0.8921 euros)Reporting by Leigh Thomas; Editing by Angus MacSwanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Leigh Thomas, Angus MacSwan Organizations: Bank of America, JPMorgan, Bank of France, Financial, CMA, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: London, Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Dublin, France
ECB rates to peak by summer - Villeroy
  + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( )   time to read: +1 min
PARIS, May 22 (Reuters) - European Central Bank interest rate hikes are likely to peak out by the end of summer, but the more important issue now is how long rates stay elevated than the exact level, French ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday. Villeroy said the lag between the ECB's exceptionally fast rate hikes over the last 10 months and their impact on the economy was more likely at the upper end of the two-year range economists expect. That made monitoring the pass-through of those hikes, which saw rates increased by 375 basis points, more important for monetary policy moves in the coming months than how much further rates are increased. "I expect today that we will be at the terminal rate not later than by summer," Villeroy told an event held at the Bank of France. "In the meantime, we have three possible Governing Councils either for hiking or pausing but don't deduce a guidance from this or a preference for a given terminal rate," he added.
Summary Le Maire: economic growth remains solidLe Maire: meeting next week to tackle inflation concernsPARIS, May 3 (Reuters) - Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Wednesday that he would meet with retailers and suppliers next week to discuss ways to break the food price inflation "spiral" by autumn, which is a major concern for cash-strapped consumers. Le Maire also told Franceinfo radio that economic growth remained solid in France despite recent strikes and protests against President Emmanuel Macron's legislation to raise the retirement age by two years to 64. Le Maire has since repeatedly called on both sides to reopen negotiations to ensure that a recent fall in global wholesale food prices is passed on to consumers. Le Maire has even threatened to take action if they do not respond to his calls. Bank of France governor and European Central Bank member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said last month he expected food price inflation to start easing in the second half of this year.
PARIS, April 30 (Reuters) - Food price inflation in France - which has been a major concern for consumers - should ease off by September, said government minister Olivia Gregoire on Sunday. "By the time people come back from their holidays in September, we will have a visible decrease in the prices you see on the shelves and in terms of food price inflation," Gregoire, who is a government minister responsible for small-and-medium sized enterprises (SMEs), told France Inter radio. Gregoire's comments echoed those from Bank of France governor and European Central Bank member Francois Villeroy de Galhau, who said earlier this month that he expected food price inflation to start easing in the second half of this year. France's headline inflation level rose to 5.9% in April from 5.7% in March. The French inflation level stood at 6.9%, as measured by a European Union-harmonised consumer price index.
Fed’s reluctance to go green will cost the Earth
  + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Ben Winck | )   time to read: +8 min
WASHINGTON, March 7 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Central banks don’t think they can do much about the environment. The U.S. Federal Reserve has done even less, arguing it should not tackle climate change without an explicit order from Congress. In a 2021 survey by Invesco, 63% of responding central banks said addressing climate change fell within their mandate. Central banks aren’t best equipped to lead the green transition, anyway. There’s also a valid concern that focusing on climate change could water down the Fed’s mission to fight inflation.
Paris, March 1 (Reuters) - Inflation in France is likely to reach its peak in the first half of the year and, barring a major world event, the risk of recession could be ruled out, French European Central Bank policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday. Villeroy, who is also governor of the French central bank, said inflation should be back to around 2%, the ECB's target, by the end of 2024 to the end of 2025. "It will be longer - we must not claim victory too quickly - but more gradual and more pragmatic in the pace of the next hikes," Villeroy told French lawmakers. While it is too early to tell when rates would reach their peak, Villeroy said it would be "desirable" by summer, at the latest by September. Reporting by Marine Strauss Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Morning Bid: Elusive peaks
  + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( )   time to read: +4 min
Unlike much of last year, the rates market is now inclined to believe the central bank on the direction of travel. And implied year-end rates are as high as 5.12% - almost half a point higher than where the current rate sits. Two-year Treasury yields hit a three-month high at 4.72% on Friday, with 10-year yields at 3-month peaks too - homing in on 4% for the first time since November. So as impressive as this week's stock market resilience had been to the new inflation and rates environment, it appears to be buckling again already. Key developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:* U.S. Jan import and export prices, leading indicator.
Euro zone bond yields jump a day after hawkish ECB
  + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | )   time to read: +3 min
Dec 16 (Reuters) - Euro zone borrowing costs rose on Friday as investors revised their forecasts for bond yields after the European Central Bank pledged further monetary tightening to fight inflation. Germany's 10-year government bond yield , the benchmark of the bloc, touched 2.208% on Friday, its highest in a month, and was last up 8 basis points at 2.17%. The gap between 2-year and 10-year yields was at -28.5 bps after briefly hitting its lowest since 1992 at -41.9 bps. The yield spread was at 1 bp after falling into negative territory to as low as -15 bps. Rohan Khanna head of European and UK rates at UBS forecast the Italian-German yield spread in the 200-250 bps range in 2023.
BNP defies French banks’ interest-rate malaise
  + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Liam Proud | )   time to read: +3 min
A regulated savings rate, with roots tracing back to the French Emperor’s wars of conquest, is one reason why Gallic retail lenders could miss out on an interest-rate windfall that is boosting banks elsewhere. Ironically, 60 billion euro BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) looks set to escape the curse because of some international expansion of its own. One-third of Gallic lenders’ deposits sit in savings vehicles with regulated interest rates, Jefferies analysts reckon. Combined with other interest-rate regulations and the fact that many French mortgage borrowers are on fixed rates, the upshot is that Gallic retail lending margins don’t rise as quickly as they might in Spain or Britain. Chief Executive Jean-Laurent Bonnafé, who is approaching his 11-year anniversary in the role, deserves credit for helping BNP to defy the lending malaise at home.
[1/2] Signage is seen outside the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. But policymakers on Friday appeared to be on message that rates will keep going up. Investors now see ECB rates peaking at around 2.75%, above levels near 2.5% seen on Thursday after the ECB's rate hike and language tweaks. RECESSIONThe policymakers' reinforcement of the rate hike message comes as a recession now looks almost certain, and will likely prompt a barrage of further criticism from European leaders. But ECB chief Christine Lagarde pushed back on the criticism on Thursday, arguing that breaking inflation was the ECB's chief mission and governments could help by providing targeted support for the most vulnerable.
France's economy grew 0.2% in the July-September period, in line with market expectations, preliminary data from the INSEE official statistics agency showed. After two consecutive months of slowing inflation in France that bucked the wider euro zone trend, consumer prices surged in October. Food prices were up 11.8% annually while energy prices soared 19.2%. The data came a day after the European Central Bank raised interest rates again, worried that rapid price growth is becoming entrenched. The outlook for France, remained difficult with inventories likely to make a negative contribution to growth from the next quarter, ING analysts said.
But signs of a thaw, spurred on by global currency chaos, are beginning to appear. The gains gave crypto bulls hope that bitcoin was becoming a safe haven asset, or one that acts as a hedge when stocks are falling. Then, around midday, the dollar grew in strength and bitcoin came crashing down again, wiping out all of its recent gains. But all assets are suffering, bitcoin isn’t in this alone.”The silver lining: But even as bitcoin prices fall, investors see signs of a bottom. The central bank is also considering the launch of a Central Bank Digital Currency, which is essentially a digital version of the dollar.
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