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☆ A resilient economy and strong earnings are overpowering normal election worries
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD It's because the economy and earnings remain resilient. That is the main reason the S & P 500 is less than 2% from its historic high. Third quarter earnings for the S & P 500 are up 8.4%, well above the 6.0% estimated at the start of October. It's fourth quarter earnings that matter Remember, the most important thing to watch is the trend and whether it is accelerating or decelerating. The S & P 500 is up 50% in those two years.

Persons: There's, Tom Lee, Phil Mackintosh, Mackintosh, John Butters, Scott Chronert, Alec Young, MapSignals.com, Young, We're Organizations: Tech, Nasdaq, Democrat, Republican, Citigroup Locations: backwardation

☆ Why oil prices haven't skyrocketed on Middle East supply fears — yet
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Iran, which is a member of OPEC, is a major player in the global oil market. It's estimated that as much as 4% of global supply could be at risk if Israel targets Iran's oil facilities. For some analysts, the reason crude prices have yet to move even higher is because the oil market is short. watch nowTamas Varga, an analyst at oil broker PVM, told CNBC via email on Thursday that the oil market was pricing in some risk premium given the geopolitical concerns. These fears, however, will be greatly alleviated in [the] coming days unless oil supply from the region or traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are materially impacted," he added.

Persons: Fatemeh, Goldman Sachs, SEB, Jeff Currie, Carlyle, CNBC's, it's, Currie, we've, Amrita Sen, We've, Sen, Joe Biden, Biden, Tamas Varga, " Varga, Benjamin Netanyahu, Masoud Pezeshkian Organizations: Anadolu, Getty, Energy, OPEC, Brent, U.S, West Texas, CNBC, White House, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Persian, Nurphoto Locations: Isfahan Refinery, Iran, Isfahan, Israel, Swedish, backwardation, bearishness, U.S, Hormuz, Oman, Tehran, Qatar, Persian, Bushehr, Bushehr province

☆ A guide to the wild week of trading, from Monday's 'flash crash' to the yen to the volatility spike
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

.VIX YTD mountain Cboe Volatility Index in 2024 That is literally what the VIX measures: expectations for volatility over the next 30 days. Was Monday a 'flash crash'? A "flash crash" is a sudden and severe price drop that lasts for a very short period, usually a few hours. "It appears that the sell-off of August 5th qualified as a flash crash, although it was rather modest by historical standards," he told me. During the 1987 flash crash, Higgins said an investor was trying to orchestrate trades on the phone while he was preparing to go to his relative's funeral.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, Alec Young, haven't, Mark Higgins, Higgins Organizations: Bank of Japan, Yen Trust, JPMorgan Chase, Fund, Dow Jones Locations: Japan, backwardation

☆ Oil extends losses as economic headwinds weigh on demand outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices fell for a second day on Monday as economic headwinds pressured the global oil demand outlook and outweighed geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and an attack on a Russian fuel export terminal over the weekend. Brent crude fell 41 cents, or 0.5%, to $78.15 a barrel by 0105 GMT after settling down 54 cents on Friday. "This morning's subdued re-open speaks volumes about current sentiment in the crude oil market despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East," IG analyst Tony Sycamore said. Russian producer Novatek aid on Sunday it had been forced to suspend some operations at the Baltic Sea terminal because of a fire. In the Middle East, the Gaza war rages on while the U.S. struck another anti-ship missile preparing to launch into the Gulf of Aden by Yemen's Houthi militants on Saturday.

Persons: headwinds, Brent, Tony Sycamore, Yemen's, IG's Sycamore, Baker Hughes, JP Morgan Organizations: West Texas, U.S . Energy Information Administration, International Energy Agency, Organization of, Petroleum, Energy Locations: Red, Ras Behar, Egypt, Europe, Ukrainian, Russian, Gaza, U.S, Aden, Iran, China

But 18-24 months later, the acute phase of the adjustment is complete, with energy inventories comfortable and prices reverting towards long-term inflation-adjusted averages. Chartbook: Europe's energy supplies and pricesThere will undoubtedly be more shocks in future, but the disruption associated with the end of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is over. Europe’s residual issue is that it has swapped relatively cheap Russian pipeline gas for relatively expensive LNG, putting its industrial competitiveness at risk, but that is a chronic problem rather than a crisis. OILIn the oil market, U.S. domestic crude and condensates production has continued to increase and surpassed its pre-pandemic peak in August 2023. Related columns:- China braces for record winter electricity demand (November 24, 2023)- Europe’s gas crisis is over, but not the painful adjustment (November 21, 2023)- Oil prices slump as fundamentals reassert themselves (November 9, 2023)- Europe's record gas stocks start to pressure prices (November 7, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: John Kemp, Jan Harvey Organizations: U.S, Brent, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Europe, Asia, Ukraine, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, Poland, Northwest Europe, China, Russia, South, East Asia, Brazil

☆ Saudi Arabia may make surprise oil cuts, sending prices soaring and the futures market into backwardation, says a 30-year energy expert
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Oil prices fell on Thursday after OPEC delayed its meeting from November 26 to November 30. AdvertisementAs the US Thanksgiving holiday puts the stock market at a standstill, oil prices are still on the move. There are three levels at which production can be pulled back: through OPEC+, an extension of the existing voluntary cuts, and new voluntary cuts. But, what he anticipates could happen is an announcement about additional voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia does implement additional cuts, then this will flip the futures curve into backwardation, he noted.

Persons: It's, Anas Alhajji, —, Alhajji Organizations: Service, West Texas, Outlook Advisors Locations: OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Angola, Dubai, backwardation, contango

Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 57 million barrels in the six most important futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on Nov. 7. Fund managers have been sellers in five of the most recent six weeks reducing their combined position by a total of 331 million barrels since Sept. 19. The combined position was reduced to just 349 million barrels (13th percentile for all weeks since 2013) from a high of 680 million barrels (64th percentile) six weeks earlier. Bearish short positions in the premier NYMEX WTI contract were boosted to 96 million barrels on Nov. 7 from just 20 million at the start of October. Related columns:- Oil prices slump as fundamentals reassert themselves (November 9, 2023)- Investors dump crude oil and distillates as Mideast risk recedes (November 6, 2023)- Crude oil sees fresh short sales as interest rates rise (October 30, 2023)- Investors dumped oil among fastest rates in last decade (October 16, 2023)- Oil investors turn cautious away from Cushing squeeze (October 2, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Henry Romero, Brent, Cushing, John Kemp, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, OPEC, ICE, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Gulf of Mexico, Veracruz, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Chartbook, WTI, NYMEX, Cushing, Oklahoma, Russia

Chartbook: Oil inventories and pricesCushing accounted for 55% of the nationwide depletion even though it held less than 10% of all crude inventories at the end of June. There were only small depletions in the rest of the Midwest (5 million barrels) and along the Gulf of Mexico (8 million barrels) and insignificant changes elsewhere. Since then, prices and spreads have collapsed, even though U.S. crude inventories at Cushing and elsewhere have barely changed so far. U.S. commercial crude inventories are about 9 million barrels (-2% or -0.22 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year seasonal average. Related columns:- U.S. oil futures surge as Cushing stocks evaporate(September 28, 2023)- Oil prices surge as stocks drain away from Cushing(September 15, 2023)- Depleting U.S. crude inventories lift oil prices(August 31.

Persons: Todd Korol, Brent, Brent's, CUSHING, NYMEX WTI, bullish, WTI, Cushing, John Kemp, David Evans Organizations: Gas, REUTERS, OPEC, Treasury, Manufacturers, Fund, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Granum , Alberta, Canada, Saudi Arabia, U.S, United States, Europe, China, Cushing, Oklahoma, of Mexico, NYMEX, OPEC

The wave of sales has reversed much of the 398 million barrels purchased between the end of June and the middle of September. WTI SQUEEZE ENDSIn the seven days ending on October 31, selling was led by crude (-78 million barrels), especially NYMEX and ICE WTI (-62 million barrels), with a smaller contribution from Brent (-16 million). The remaining position (153 million barrels) was the lowest for 16 weeks since July 11 (128 million barrels). Crude inventories around the NYMEX delivery point at Cushing in Oklahoma depleted to just 22 million barrels at the end of September from 43 million barrels at the end of June. But most of the sales have come in European gas oil (-49 million barrels) rather than U.S. diesel (-6 million) reflecting the poor outlook for the European economy.

Persons: Angus Mordant, Cushing, John Kemp Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, ICE, diesel, Funds, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Loving County , Texas, U.S, North America, Europe, China, Iran, Israel, Cushing, Oklahoma, WTI, NYMEX

☆ The stock market's volatility indicator is signaling a trough in the S&P 500
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market's volatility gauge is signaling a trough in the S&P 500. Futures for the CBOE Volatility Index indicated more uncertainty about the near term than longer term. Futures contracts tied to the volatility index, also known as the VIX, track the expected amount of market volatility down the line. It speaks to more anxiety about where the stock market is headed amid recession angst, the bond market rout, and mushrooming geopolitical risk. In September, the volatility index was trading at post-pandemic lows, signalling a strong bull market and fizzling recession fears.

Persons: —, Torsten Sløk Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Apollo Locations: Israel

The government said the lifting of restrictions applies to companies that supply at least 50% of the produced diesel fuel to the domestic market. Restrictions on railway diesel exports remain in place, with the exception on exports to some ex-Soviet states. A resumption of Russian diesel exports will have the biggest impact on Turkey and Brazil, Russia's two biggest buyers this year. Traders expect the lifting of the diesel ban could mean Asian diesel cargoes which would have replaced Russian exports in Africa and Turkey will now stay in the region, adding to already ample supplies. The diesel ban will have the biggest impact because Russia is the world's top seaborne exporter of the fuel, just ahead of the United States.

Persons: Transneft, Serena Huang, Maxim, Alexander Novak, Vortexa, William Maclean Organizations: TASS, Traders, REUTERS, Kommersant, Kremlin, FGE Energy, Thomson Locations: MOSCOW, LONDON, SINGAPORE, Russia, Soviet, Baltic, Turkey, Brazil, Africa, Konstantinovo, Moscow, United States

☆ Oil prices near $100 per barrel raise questions over demand destruction
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Ruxandra Iordache | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

boonchai wedmakawand | Moment | Getty ImagesSupply cuts from heavyweight crude producers have helped drive oil prices near $100 per barrel — fueling some to consider the potential for future demand destruction. Seven European refiners and traders, who spoke under anonymity because of contractual obligations, told CNBC that local buyers can withstand oil prices veering into triple digits without lowering their output runs. Some European market participants polled by CNBC doubted triple-digit oil prices are sustainable in the long term, with three pointing to possible demand destruction — where customers gradually answer persistently high prices with fewer purchases. "Sometimes high oil prices can become a self-fulfilling prophecy," Indian Energy Minister Hardeep Singh Puri warned in August. The oil price hike has benefitted Moscow despite sanctions.

Persons: boonchai, Sushant Gupta, Wood Mackenzie, Topping, Ukraine —, refiner, Hardeep Singh Puri, Giovanni Staunovo Organizations: Brent, ING, Organization of, Petroleum, CNBC, U.S . Energy, Administration, Indian Energy, UBS Locations: London, Asia, Wood, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, U.S, Moscow, Washington, Israel, East, Riyadh, Iran, Beijing

LME copper stocks and Cash-3s time-spreadSUMMER SURGEAlmost 100,000 metric tons of copper have been warranted in the LME warehouse network since the middle of July, lifting headline stocks to 149,600 metric tons. European inflows have been split between Rotterdam (19,325 metric tons) and the German port of Hamburg (9,850). The CME's delivery locations, however, don't include Mobile, Alabama, where LME copper stocks have grown to 1,925 metric tons. The amount of cancelled stock awaiting physical load-out from the LME warehouse system currently stands at a minimal 225 metric tons. LME, LME shadow, CME, ShFE and INE copper stocksCHINA OFFSETThe copper stocks surge has to date been largely confined to the LME delivery system.

Persons: Emelia Sithole Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Mobile, CME, Shanghai Futures Exchange, International Energy Exchange, Shanghai, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, China, Rotterdam, Hamburg, Asia, Kaohsiung, Busan, New Orleans, Mobile , Alabama, London, ShFE, CHINA

LONDON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia’s oil minister denied the kingdom’s recent production cuts have been intended to boost prices, in remarks at the World Petroleum Congress in Calgary on Sept. 18. jacking up prices, it’s about making the decisions that are right when we have the data,” he said (“Saudi Arabia’s energy minister says oil cuts not about jacking up prices”, Financial Times, Sept. 18). Relative contributions from production cuts and faster economic growth are impossible to establish with any certainty. Even after the rise in crude prices, however, they remain moderate compared with periods of high prices in 2007-2008 and 2011-2014 once inflation is taken into account. Related columns:- Oil prices surge as stocks drain away from Cushing (Sept. 15, 2023)- Depleting U.S. crude stocks draw in hedge funds (Sept. 11, 2023)- Depleting U.S. crude inventories lift oil prices (Aug. 31, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: “ It’s, ”, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, It’s, ‘, Brent, John Kemp, Jan Harvey Organizations: World Petroleum Congress, Financial, . Energy, Reuters, International Energy Agency, Thomson Locations: Saudi, Calgary, China, Europe, North America, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, Cushing

Crude oil storage tanks are seen in an aerial photograph at the Cushing oil hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, U.S. April 21, 2020. Cushing crude stocks have depleted by 18 million barrels (-42%) since the end of June compared with just 14 million barrels (-3%) elsewhere. In consequence, the net position in WTI climbed to 225 million barrels (42nd percentile for all weeks since 2013) up from a record low of just 46 million barrels. It is possible Cushing inventories are being liquidated to make up for reduced flows from Saudi Arabia and other Middle East exporters. Related columns:- Depleting U.S. crude stocks draw in hedge funds (September 11, 2023)- Hedge funds buy U.S. crude as stocks fall (September 4, 2023)- Depleting U.S. crude inventories lift oil prices (August 31, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Cushing, Long, WTI, John Kemp, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, European Commission, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, refiners, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Cushing , Oklahoma, U.S, Cushing, Oklahoma, United States, Gulf, Europe, Saudi Arabia, North America, Asia

Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 98 million barrels of futures and options based on crude over the seven days ending on Sept. 5. Short positions in NYMEX WTI had been reduced to just 30 million barrels on Sept. 5 from 136 million barrels on June 27. In the last 10 shorting cycles, shorts have fallen to an average of 24 million barrels. Following their repeated extension, the cuts are set to remove a total of 245 million barrels by the end of December if implemented in full. Related columns:- Hedge funds buy U.S. crude as stocks fall (September 4, 2023)- Depleting U.S. crude inventories lift oil prices (August 31, 2023)- Prospect of strong El Niño weighs on U.S. gas prices (August 30, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Bing Guan, Brent, NYMEX WTI, Cushing, bullishness, John Kemp, Susan Fenton Organizations: Angeles Refinery, California Air Resources Board, OPEC ⁺, ICE, bearishness, Henry, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Angeles, California, Carson , California, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Brent, WTI, NYMEX, Chartbook, Russia, Saudi, Cushing, Oklahoma

A pressure gauge and valves are seen at Storengy's natural gas storage site in Saint-Illiers-la-Ville, western France, September 20, 2022. Inventories across the European Union and the United Kingdom had climbed to 1,071 terawatt hours (TWh) by Sep. 6, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, GIE, Sep. 8). The risk of storage space running out has been reduced correspondingly. Nonetheless, it will be critically important for the refill season to end earlier than usual to ensure storage space does not run out. Related columns:- Europe's record gas inventories cap prices (Aug. 8, 2023)- Europe’s gas storage is filling too fast (July 6, 2023)- Europe’s gas prices stabilise as storage additions slow (June 8, 2023)- Europe only has space for a small gas refill in 2023 (April 14, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Christian Hartmann, John Kemp, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, European Union, Gas Infrastructure, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Saint, Ville, France, United Kingdom, GIE, Europe, Russia, Ukraine, Australia

China has stepped up domestic output of refined zinc this year, but the Shanghai market continues to be plagued by low inventory and tight time-spreads. China's imports, exports and net trade in refined zincRETURN TO THE IMPORT MARKETChina was a consistent net importer of refined zinc over the last decade, but that changed in 2022. Shanghai zinc stocks seasonal patterns over 2020-2023LOW INVENTORYShFE registered stocks stand at a modest 43,181 tons. Sentiment, however, holds the real key to the Shanghai premium. The country's trade in refined zinc may prove a useful mirror on that question over the next few months.

Persons: Cash, It's, Jan Harvey Organizations: Share, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Metal, Citi, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Eritrea's, Asmara, Eritrea, China, Shanghai, Europe, Turkey, U.S, Antwerp, Singapore, Malaysia's Port Klang, Kaohsiung, Guangdong, London

Investors had expected Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend voluntary cuts into October, but the three-month extension was unexpected. "This is a clear indication that oil prices trump volume (for Saudi Arabia)," said Jorge Leon, senior vice president at Rystad Energy. "These bullish moves significantly tighten the global oil market and can only result in one thing: higher oil prices worldwide," Leon added. Both Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would review the supply cuts monthly, and could modify them depending on market conditions. Along with the Saudi supply cuts, which began in July, prospects of the U.S. economy avoiding a hard recession have helped lift oil demand and prices in recent months.

Persons: Nick Oxford, Brent, Goldman Sachs, Jorge Leon, Leon, Giovanni Staunovo, Shariq Khan, Natalie Grover, Katya Golubkova, Andrew Hayley, Andrea Ricci, Nick Macfie, Timothy Gardner Organizations: Midland , Texas U.S, REUTERS, Brent, . West Texas, Investors, Rystad Energy, UBS, Thomson Locations: Midland , Texas, Saudi Arabia, Russia, BENGALURU, 4Q23, U.S, Saudi

☆ Oil jumps as Saudi Arabia and Russia extend supply cuts to end-2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Natalie Grover | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Riyadh's decision to extend its 1 million bpd voluntary cut will be reviewed monthly to consider whether to deepen the cut or increase production, state news agency SPA said on Tuesday. It has been cutting output and exports in tandem with Saudi Arabia on top of existing OPEC+ supply reductions. Russia had said it would cut oil exports voluntarily by 500,000 bpd, about 5% of its output, in August and by 300,000 bpd in September. Although Saudi Arabia was widely expected to extend its voluntary cuts into October, and Russia had indicated that it too planned on expanding its cut through next month, the three month extension was unexpected. Brent, which is used to price over three-quarters of the world's traded oil, has been rising since late June, after Riyadh first announced its voluntary cuts.

Persons: Nick Oxford, Alexander Novak, Craig Erlam, Brent, Natalie Grover, Katya Golubkova, Andrew Hayley, Sharon Singleton, Jason Neely, Jan Harvey, David Goodman, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Midland , Texas U.S, REUTERS, Brent, West Texas, OPEC, Reuters, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: Midland , Texas, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, Brent, Riyadh, London, Tokyo, Beijing

Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) October futures rose $2.42, or about 2.8%, to $87.97 a barrel, also a 10-month high. Investors had expected Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend voluntary cuts into October, but the three-month extension was unexpected"It would appear they're trying to double down and capitalize on the recent price moves. Both countries said they would review the supply cuts monthly, and could modify them depending on market conditions. Prospects of the U.S. economy avoiding a hard recession have helped lift oil demand and prices in recent months. Brent futures, which are used to price over three-quarters of the world's traded oil, have gained by about 26% since late June, after Riyadh first announced its voluntary cuts.

Persons: Nick Oxford, Goldman Sachs, Craig Erlam, Brent, Giovanni Staunovo, Natalie Grover, Katya Golubkova, Andrew Hayley, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Midland , Texas U.S, REUTERS, Brent, West Texas, Investors, Reuters, bbl, UBS, Thomson Locations: Midland , Texas, Saudi Arabia, Russia, BENGALURU, U.S, 4Q23, Riyadh, London, Tokyo, Beijing

Pipelines run to Enbridge Inc.'s crude oil storage tanks at their tank farm in Cushing, Oklahoma. Cushing crude inventories have declined in five of the most recent six weeks by a total of 9 million barrels (-24%) since July 14. The drawdown in U.S. crude inventories has coincided with additional production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia totalling around 75 million barrels during July and August. U.S. NET CRUDE IMPORTSU.S. net crude oil imports remain subdued despite the depletion of inventories with exports continuing to run at a relatively fast rate while imports stay low. Related columns:- Oil market to tighten modestly in late 2023 (August 17, 2023)- Crude oil and fuels draw funds as sentiment shifts (August 7, 2023)- U.S. oil and gas production begins to flatten (August 4, 2023)- Saudi output cut removes downside risk from oil market (July 12, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Nick Oxford, CUSHING, Cushing, Biden, John Kemp, David Evans Organizations: Enbridge Inc, REUTERS, U.S . Energy Information Administration, refiners, Traders, NET, U.S . Department of Energy, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Cushing , Oklahoma, Chartbook, Cushing, Oklahoma, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, United States, Asia, Europe, Asia . U.S, Ukraine, Saudi

LME three-month zinc hit a near three-year low of $2,215 per metric ton in May. LME zinc price stocks and spreadsSQUEEZE DRAWS OUT HIDDEN METALThe trigger for the current spate of arrivals in the LME warehouse system appears to have been a sharp contraction in short-dated time-spreads earlier this month. If so, the game is on in Singapore, which has accounted for all the recent arrivals bar 1,000 metric tons at Malaysia's Port Klang. A total 31,500 metric tons of zinc were warranted in the city in July along with 5,125 metric tons of lead and 625 metric tons of tin. In the interim, there is plenty of potential for more metal to head towards LME storage sheds.

Persons: Ilya Naymushin, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, London Metal Exchange, Citibank, Low, Study, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Angara, Novoangars, Russia, Singapore, Malaysia's Port Klang ., East Asia, China, Europe, Ireland

REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Production cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC⁺ allies are expected to tighten the global petroleum market moderately over the remainder of 2023 and into the first quarter of 2024. Since then, additional production cuts announced by Saudi Arabia will remove an extra 90 million barrels from the market between July and September. Russia has also announced extra cuts amounting to 25 million barrels in August and September, assuming they are implemented in full. Related columns:- U.S. oil and gas production begins to flatten (August 4, 2023)- Saudi output cut removes downside risk from oil market (July 12, 2023)- Is oil market’s glass half-full or half-empty? (June 29, 2023)- Frustrated oil bulls made to wait for price recovery (June 22, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Ernest Scheyder, Brent, John Kemp, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, OPEC ⁺, OECD, U.S . Energy Information Administration, of, Petroleum, OPEC, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Midland , Texas, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, European, China, Saudi, United States, Europe, Asia

Futures prices for ultra-low sulphur diesel delivered in New York Harbor in September climbed to $135 per barrel on Aug. 9, up from $95 on May 31. Prices for diesel and other distillate fuel oils have been rising much faster than for crude petroleum, widening margins for refiners. Diesel prices are rising as traders anticipate that shortages will quickly re-emerge if the economy avoids falling into a recession later in 2023. The rapid escalation in diesel prices and hedge fund position building is a warning that capacity constraints and upward pressure on goods prices are likely to re-emerge relatively quickly later in 2023 and in 2024. Depleted diesel inventories are a sign that if the economy achieves a mid-cycle soft-landing the second phase of the current expansion could prove short and inflationary.

Persons: Guan, John Kemp, David Evans Organizations: Kinder, Phillips, Los, Los Angeles Refinery, REUTERS, U.S . Energy Information Administration, ICE Futures, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, U.S, diesel, Diesel, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Los Angeles, Carson , California, U.S, United, New York Harbor, Europe, Singapore

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