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That's due to a recent contraction in the money supply, which preceded past downturns, he told NYSE TV Live. The US economy is still likely to slow into a recession next year — and Trump's election victory may have just made the economic outlook even more challenging, according to top economist Steve Hanke. AdvertisementM2, one class of the money supply, shrank from mid-2022 to March 2024, according to Federal Reserve data. The M2 money supply started to re-expand this year, rising 2.47% year-per-year at the end of September. Trump's protectionist economic policies also impose a "big negative" for the economy, Hanke said.
Persons: Steve Hanke, downturns, Johns Hopkins, who's, That's, Hanke, Trump Organizations: NYSE TV, NYSE, Federal Reserve, Real Locations: Atlanta
Inflation data in the week ahead could determine whether a stock market that surged to all-time highs after Donald Trump 's decisive victory can continue to push higher. Meanwhile, the October producer price index, which excludes shelter, is set to have risen 0.3%, consensus estimates show, up from a 0.0% reading the prior month. Initial Claims (11/09) 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (October) Earnings: Applied Materials , Walt Disney Friday, Nov. 15 8:30 a.m. Export Price Index (October) 8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (October) 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Donald Trump, Hogan, We've, Nancy Tengler, Bitcoin, Harker, Tyson, Price Organizations: Federal Reserve, Riley Wealth Management, FactSet, Laffer, Investments, Trump, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Atlanta Fed, Treasury, Philadelphia Reserve, Carnegie Mellon, Occidental Petroleum, Nation Entertainment, Tyson Foods, Mosaic, Treasury Budget NSA, Cisco Systems, Walt Disney, Price, Retail, Manufacturing Locations: China, U.S
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point
  + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
watch nowThe Federal Reserve approved its second consecutive interest rate cut Thursday, moving at a less aggressive pace than before but continuing its efforts to rightsize monetary policy. Among them was an altered view in how it assesses the effort to bring down inflation while supporting the labor market. The statement slightly downgraded the labor market, saying "conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low." Generally, the labor market has held up well. An acceleration in economic activity under Trump could persuade the Fed to cut rates less, depending on how inflation reacts.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Jerome Powell, nonfarm, Donald Trump, Trump, Powell, Pace Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, Gross, Atlanta Fed, Trump Locations: Tuesday's
The move comes as inflation remains on a downward trend while the job market continues to lose momentum. While that has helped rein in price pressures, it also puts the job market in jeopardy. So I’m going to be patient.”Still, rate cuts are expected to stretch through 2025, even during a Trump presidency, according to economists. On one hand, there’s evidence that America’s job market has continued to lose momentum in recent months. But since Trump’s economic vision could eventually stoke inflation, that could mean the Fed delivers fewer rate cuts in the coming years.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Powell, “ I’m, Raphael Bostic, , Kamala Harris, Felipe Villarroel, , Trump, hasn’t, Arthur Burns, Richard Nixon, Ben Bernanke Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, President, White, Atlanta Fed, Trump, TwentyFour Asset Management, Fed, CNN, White House, Capitol Locations: Jackson , Mississippi
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email25 bps hike is 'almost a certainty' in November Fed meeting, says former Atlanta Fed presidentDennis Lockhart, former Atlanta Fed president, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss how Powell will handle questions around the incoming administration, what data could move the Fed from a 25 bps cut, and much more.
Persons: Dennis Lockhart, Powell Organizations: Fed, Atlanta Fed
Bond market investors are having trouble figuring out an economy that looks good from 30,000 feet, but less so closer to the ground. Whether it's payrolls, gross domestic product or retail sales, or a host of other measures, growth looks solid, at the very least. On Wall Street, the general view was of concern: The Beige Book "showed no material improvement in a generally bleak outlook," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote. However, if growth deteriorates, as the Beige Book indicates it has, that likely would push the Fed towards more reductions. "Despite recent stronger-than-expected data on U.S. employment, retail sales, and consumer inflation, the Fed's latest Beige Book signals a still weakening economy."
Persons: it's, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Kathy Bostjancic, Peter Boockvar, Jerome Powell, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Citigroup, Nationwide, Bleakley Financial, DataTrek
That’s helped push uncertainty among small business owners to an all-time high since the nearly 40-year inception of a monthly survey the National Federation of Independent Business conducts to gauge small business sentiment. The scale of firms whose investment plans are impacted by election uncertainty is “pretty remarkable” compared to prior elections, said Daniel Weitz, survey director at the Atlanta Fed. The Fed’s Beige Book, a quarterly collection of survey responses from businesses compiled by the 12 regional Fed banks published Wednesday, highlighted a wide range of businesses that are suffering because of election uncertainty. But the blowback that businesses are facing from the election uncertainty should subside once the policy path ahead becomes more clear, at which point we could start to see a rebound in hiring and capital investment businesses make, Meyer told CNN. The combination of these three major unknowns is shaping small business owners’ uncertain outlooks, said Holly Wade, executive director of the NFIB Research Center.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, That’s, ” “, Duke, Daniel Weitz, , hesitancy, Brent Meyer, Harris, Meyer, that’s, They’re, Holly Wade, “ We’re, Wade Organizations: New, New York CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Reserve, Atlanta and Richmond Federal, Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, Fortune, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, Fed, Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed, Trump, CNN, Federal Reserve, NFIB Research Locations: New York,
Bonds have sold off as traders reassess the path of Fed Reserve rate cuts. AdvertisementThe bond market is in sell-off mode as traders reassess the path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. That would be a big surprise to traders, with the market pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis point interest rate cut from the Fed next month. AdvertisementFed officials, for their part, have indicated they're likely to move cautiously, though more rate cuts are still their base case. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she expects interest rates will fall "gradually," and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid endorsed a "cautious and gradual" approach to cutting interest rates.
Persons: Bonds, , Donald Trump, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Mary Daly, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid, Trump Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, Bloomberg, Bond, Treasury Bond ETF, Federal, Market, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis, Dallas, Kansas City, House Locations: Atlanta
Both have opined that the rally on Wall Street underscores a growing belief that former President Donald Trump will win on Nov. 5. However, I don't yet believe that Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue have intersected just yet. Indeed, if the stock market is anticipating a Trump victory, what might the bond market and gold market be telling us, assuming they expect the same outcome? Are those markets telling us a Trump victory would lead to higher inflation and bigger fiscal deficits? Those betting on a Trump win would be loath to say so if they follow the messages of multiple markets.
Persons: Stanley Druckenmiller, Dan Loeb, Donald Trump, Loeb, it's, Dow Jones, Kamala Harris, Trump, Ron Insana Organizations: Senate, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Atlanta, Dow, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, European Central Bank, Trump, stoke, Democratic, Pennsylvania, CNBC Locations: U.S
Inflation is not deadDaly began her talk with an anecdote of a recent encounter she had while walking near her home. But the conversation encapsulated a dilemma for the Fed: If inflation is on the run, why are interest rates still so high? As evidenced by the young man's question, convincing people that inflation is easing is a tough sell. watch nowThe annual rate of CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, a vast improvement over the 9.1% top in June 2022. However, year-over-year spending increased just 1.7%, below the 2.4% CPI inflation rate.
Persons: Brandon Bell, Goldman Sachs, Mary Daly, Daly, Goldman, Jerome Powell, , hasn't, haven't Organizations: Walmart, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, New York University Stern School of Business, Commerce Department, Fed, York Fed, Bank of America, National Federation of Independent Business Locations: Austin , Texas, U.S, , Wyoming, Atlanta, York
One basis point is equal to 0.01%. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was up less than one basis point at 4.1045%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury yield ticked lower by one basis point to 3.9758%. U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Friday as investors digested the previous day's economic data which signaled economic resilience. Comments are also expected from several Federal Reserve officials including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.
Persons: Dow Jones, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Dow, Labor Department, Federal, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, European Central Bank, European Union
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures sat near flat Thursday night after the blue-chip average finished the preceding session at a record closing level. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were rose 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Those moves come after a rally in Travelers propelled the Dow to finish Thursday at an all-time closing high. The broad S&P 500 inched lower despite notching a fresh intraday high during the session, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite concluded modestly higher. That would mark the longest weekly winning streaks in 2024 for both the Dow and S&P 500.
Persons: Dow, They'll, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Liz Young Thomas Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Netflix, Travelers, Dow, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Minneapolis Fed, American Express, Procter, Gamble
Semiconductor stocks are rebounding in reaction to a beat-and-raise earnings report from Taiwan Semiconductor . NEXTracke r: Shares of solar stock Nextracker are having another rough day, dropping roughly 3%. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. A logo of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is seen during the TSMC global RnD Center opening ceremony in Hsinchu on July 28, 2023.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, there's, we've, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Amber Wang Organizations: CNBC, Semiconductor, Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, Apple, Taiwan Semi, ASML Holdings, Treasury, Atlanta, JPMorgan, Nextracker, Microsoft, Republican, Netflix, Procter, Gamble, American Express, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Center, Afp, Getty Locations: Taiwan, Hsinchu, AFP
Gold prices inched higher on Wednesday, as U.S. Treasury yields eased, while market participants waited for more U.S. economic data to determine the number of interest rate cuts the Federal Reserve is likely to deliver in the near term. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,667.97 per ounce by 0217 GMT, $17 shy of a record high hit last month. The 10-year Treasury yields slipped for a third straight session, making zero-yield bullion more appealing. "The game changer in gold prices is the U.S. monetary policy easing as it sets the stage for investment demand," said ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari. Delegates to the London Bullion Market Association's annual gathering predicted gold prices would rise to $2,941 over the next 12 months and silver prices would jump to $45 per ounce.
Persons: Soni Kumari, Mary Daly, Raphael Bostic, Benjamin Netanyahu, Emmanuel Macron Organizations: SA, Treasury, Federal Reserve, ANZ, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta Fed, London Locations: Budapest, Hungary, U.S, rearming
“It used to be that if you made the median income, you could afford the median-priced house,” said Domonic Purviance, a housing expert at the Atlanta Federal Reserve. Their mortgage rate was 8.125% — above the roughly 7% national average at the time, which was hovering near 20-year highs. While that ratio is less than the cost-burdened 30% threshold, it has doubled in the area in just the last three years. From 2013 to 2023, the median annual household income in the U.S. has risen 50%, to $80,610. For example, McCue said, cost-burdened homeowners may struggle to keep up with home maintenance, leading to unhealthy or unsafe living environments.
Persons: , Domonic Purviance, “ That’s, Haley, Ben Williams, , ” Ben, they’d, Daniel McCue, haven’t, It’s, McCue, “ You’re, Haley Williams, “ I’ve Organizations: Atlanta Federal Reserve, Homes, NBC, Harvard University’s, for Housing Studies, Atlanta Fed, Federal Reserve Locations: Elkhart , Indiana, Elkhart, Chicago, U.S
Investors need to be wary as sticky inflation remains a risk, Deutsche Bank says. But it's not yet time for investors to relax, Deutsche Bank wrote on Monday. "If inflation does return, this could have very important implications for markets," Deutsche Bank strategists said. While that much is true, history shows that easing cycles are precisely the time to be cautious over inflation, Deutsche said. The firm cited the fact that in August, US M2 money supply rose 2.0% year-over-year, the highest growth rate since September 2022.
Persons: , Brent, Deutsche Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Service, Federal Reserve, Deutsche, Atlanta Locations: China, Israel, Iran, Iranian
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are near flat Monday night after the blue-chip index closed at a record. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also both traded near their flatlines. Those moves come after a winning day on Wall Street that propelled the S&P 500 and Dow to new intraday highs and record closes. Information technology stocks led the S&P 500 higher in the session, with the sector finishing nearly 1.4% higher. Beyond banks, United Airlines , Walgreens Boots Alliance and Johnson & Johnson are also on the docket.
Persons: Scott Chronert, Goldman Sachs, Johnson, Mary Daly, Raphael Bostic, Adriana Kugler Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Nvidia, Citigroup, Bank of America, United Airlines, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Johnson, San Francisco Federal, Atlanta Fed Locations: New York City, Citi's, United
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell around 2 basis points to 4.075%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was down by more than 2 basis points to 3.974%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged lower on Friday as market participants awaited the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) report. The yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly topped 4.1% in the previous session following commentary from Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic that suggested his openness to a cutting pause. Sticking on the data front, investors will turn their attention to the release of the latest PPI reading, which is expected at 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Dow, — CNBC's Brian Evans Organizations: Treasury, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Wall Street Journal, Fed, U.S, Consumer, Index, PPI Locations: U.S
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. "I am totally comfortable with skipping [rate cuts for] a meeting if the data suggests that's appropriate," Bostic told The Wall Street Journal in an interview Thursday. The data suggests so. But Bostic acknowledged it's important to see whether individual data points cohere into a larger pattern, or if they're just "janky," as Bostic put it.
Persons: Justin Sullivan, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Joseph Brusuelas, Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Hakyung Kim Organizations: Getty, CNBC, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Federal, Market, RSM Locations: San Rafael , California
Dollar bulls suffer setback as traders add to Fed cut bets
  + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar fell from two-month highs hit overnight versus its major peers after signs of weakness in the labor market boosted the case for quicker Federal Reserve rate cuts. Bets for a quarter-point Fed rate cut on Nov. 7 increased to 83.3% from 80.3% a day earlier, with the remaining odds for policy to stay steady, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. A week earlier, there was a 32.1% chance of a half-point reduction and 67.9% probability of a quarter-point cut. The dollar added 0.06% to 148.68 yen , inching back towards Thursday's high of 149.58 yen, a level previously not seen since Aug. 2. The Australian dollar held firm at $0.67395 after rebounding from its lowest since Sept. 16 at $0.6702 on Thursday.
Persons: Tapas Strickland, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic Organizations: U.S, Treasury, National Australia Bank, Fed, Chicago Fed, Atlanta Fed Locations: China
SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. "I am totally comfortable with skipping [rate cuts for] a meeting if the data suggests that's appropriate," Bostic told The Wall Street Journal in an interview Thursday. The data suggests so. "This choppiness to me is along the lines of maybe we should take a pause in November," said Bostic, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee.
Persons: SeongJoon Cho, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Joseph Brusuelas, Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Hakyung Kim Organizations: AMD, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Federal, Market, RSM Locations: Pike, Seattle , Washington, US
(This is a wrap-up of the key money moving discussions on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" exclusive for PRO subscribers. Worldwide Exchange airs at 5 a.m. Worldwide Exchange Word of the Day: Earnings Stephanie Link of Hightower believes Q3 earnings will be better than LSEG estimates of a 5% increase year over year; seeing potential for an 8-10% increase. "This gives it some room to outperform in the final quarter," Baruch said on Worldwide Exchange. (This is a wrap-up of the key money moving discussions on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" exclusive for PRO subscribers.
Persons: Stephanie Link, Hightower, Bill Baruch, Baruch, Wells Fargo Organizations: PRO, Worldwide, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Blue, Wolfe Research, Dow Transports, Dow Jones Transportation, Citi, Logistics
The Fed is done cutting interest rates for the rest of the year, according to Ed Yardeni. Fears of a recession have been almost completely eliminated, the market vet said in a note. The no-show Fed-triggered recession will remain a no-show, especially now that the Fed has started to lower the FFR even though it isn't warranted by the performance of the economy," Yardeni wrote. I think it broadens out from the Magnificent Seven to the S&P 493," Yardeni added, speaking to Bloomberg on Monday. "We're going to have another quarter where I think earnings will go to a record-high in the third quarter."
Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, , landers, they're Organizations: Service, Reserve, Yardeni, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Services, Institution of Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Bloomberg, Investor
The US job market is in a strange quandary, according to Claudia Sahm. The September jobs report was huge, but Sahm said the labor market is still cooling. AdvertisementThe job market is in a weird spot, even after Friday's stunningly strong nonfarm payroll report, Claudia Sahm says. The former Federal Reserve economist and the creator of a highly watched recession indicator pointed to signs that the labor market is cooling, despite September's blowout jobs report. Other forecasters have said the job market remains in uncertain territory, though labor conditions are generally on strong footing.
Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, , they're Organizations: Employers, Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Challenger, Atlanta Fed
Stock futures were little changed on Monday night, following a losing day on Wall Street as rising oil prices and bond yields weighed on markets. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each also traded near flat. The Dow finished nearly 400 points lower, while the S&P 500 slid close to 1%. Bond yields and prices move inversely to each other. But energy names climbed alongside the commodity, making it the only sector of the 11 that comprise the S&P 500 to finish Monday in the green.
Persons: Bond, Larry Tentarelli, you've, They'll, Susan Collins, Raphael Bostic Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Treasury, West Texas, Boston Federal, Atlanta Fed Locations: New York City, East, Iran, Israel
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