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☆ Stock market today: Indexes mixed after Fed meeting as Powell calms nerves over possible hike
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Central bankers chose to keep interest rates steady, and Powell said a rate hike was "unlikely." Fed officials chose to keep interest rates unchanged, in line with the market's expectations. Investors have been fretting over higher interest rates as inflation came in hotter-than-expected throughout the first quarter. The odds of a Fed rate hike in June are less than 1%. Calling that out in the first paragraph is tantamount to saying that interest rate cuts are not coming soon."

Persons: Powell, —, Greg McBride, Bankrate, Charlie Ripley Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Fed, Allianz Investment Management

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 10 (Reuters) - A hawkish lean from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell chilled a recent rebound in stocks and bonds, with some investors suggesting the central bank was pushing back against loosening financial conditions. Some investors said Powell may have been leaning against a recent loosening of financial conditions that has come as yields have tumbled in recent weeks. Evidence of the dynamic between yields and financial conditions - factors that reflect the availability of funding in an economy - was on display in last week's 0.5% decline in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, its sixth-biggest weekly drop since 1990. "If their concept is to have tighter financial conditions, they can’t really let those yields go down. "The rally of the markets both in equity and fixed income unwound the financial conditions tightening to a large degree," Desai said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Charlie Ripley, Powell …, Spencer Hakimian, Sonal Desai, Franklin, Desai, Vassili Serebriakov, Jeffrey Roach, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Karen Brettell, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, International Monetary Fund, Treasury, Allianz Investment Management, Goldman, Tolou Capital Management, UBS, Investors, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, New York

☆ Fed holds rates steady, upgrades assessment of economic growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

watch nowThe Federal Reserve on Wednesday again held benchmark interest rates steady amid a backdrop of a growing economy and labor market and inflation that is still well above the central bank's target. This was the second consecutive meeting that the Federal Open Market Committee chose to hold, following a string of 11 rate hikes, including four in 2023. He also said the risks around the Fed doing too much or too little to fight inflation have become more balanced. The increases have been targeted at easing economic growth and bringing a supply and demand mismatch in the labor market back into balance. The post-meeting statement indicated that the Fed sees the economy holding strong despite the rate hikes, a position in itself that could prompt policymakers into a prolonged tightening stance.

Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, Powell, Charlie Ripley Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, Dow Jones Industrial, Allianz Investment Management, Gross, Labor Department, Fed, Group Locations: hasn't

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Frazzled U.S. stock investors eye frothy Treasury market as Fed looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. October has lived up to its reputation for volatility, as a surge in Treasury yields and geopolitical uncertainty pressured stocks. Higher Treasury yields are seen as a headwind to stocks, in part because they compete with equities for buyers. More broadly, some believe the stock market's trading patterns this year point to a rebound in the fourth quarter. "The stock market is poised for a late Q4 rally."

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Sam Stovall, CME's, Alex McGrath, Charlie Ripley, Tesla, Stovall, Ned Davis, Randy Frederick, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Apple Inc, Treasury, Strong U.S, CFRA Research, Investors, U.S, Gross, Fed, Allianz Investment Management, Google, CFRA, Ned Davis Research, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ The Fed decision and jobs report are in the week ahead as Wall Street wraps up a brutal month
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The Federal Reserve meeting and October jobs report are on the docket next week as investors wrap up a brutal month for markets. Both the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slid into correction territory this week following some disappointing megacap tech reports. "I suspect that the Fed is not going to comfort the market," said James Camp, managing director at Eagle Asset Management. Many investors expect stocks could remain choppy until the markets gain clarity on when the Fed will start to cut rates. Jobs report Investors will get another look into the labor market next week soon after the Fed decision.

Persons: Jerome Powell, James Camp, Dave Sekera, Sekera, Dow Jones, Nick Galluccio, you'll, Powell, Charlie Ripley, Ripley, Galluccio, we've, Eli Lilly Organizations: Reserve, Nasdaq, Eagle Asset Management, Fed, Teton Advisors, Treasury, Asset, Apple, Investors, Allianz Investment Management, Advisors, Dallas Fed, Simon Property, Semiconductor, Western, ECI Civilian Workers, Chicago PMI, Devices, Caesars Entertainment, Pfizer, GE Healthcare Technologies, Caterpillar, ADP, PMI, Manufacturing, Costco Wholesale, Qualcomm, Cruise Line Holdings, Brands, Labor, Factory, News Corp, Booking Holdings, Paramount Global, Moderna, Jobs, Services PMI, Health Locations: U.S, FactSet, Chicago

☆ Treasury yields spike as markets worry about the impact of sticky inflation on Fed policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The 10-year Treasury yield spiked about 12 basis points Thursday. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 12 basis points to hover at 4.714%, near the 16-year highs reached the week prior. Earlier in the week on Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 15 basis points in the steepest single-day decline since the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank in March. September CPI showed prices rose 3.7% on an annualized basis in September, above the expected 3.6%, and the same level as August's reading.

Persons: —, recalibrate, Charlie Ripley Organizations: Treasury, Service, Valley Bank, Fed, Allianz Investment Management, Wall Street

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in September, more than economists had expected, as rising costs for shelter drove the increase, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. On an annual basis, the consumer price index was unchanged for the month, at 3.7%. The core CPI, leaving out energy and food costs, rose 0.3%, while the yearly rate dropped to 4.1% from 4.3% previously. The CPI release follows Wednesday’s producer price index that rose more than expected, at 0.5% for the month, and 2.2% for the year. But, over the last 12 months, consumer inflation has fallen from an 8.2% pace – although it remains well above the 2% annual goal set by the Federal Reserve.

Persons: ” Johan Grahn Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Allianz Investment Management, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Fed-wary investors eye mounting risks to US stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 (.SPX) tumbled 2.9% this week, its biggest weekly decline since March. High Treasury yields dull the allure of stocks by offering investors an attractive payout on an investment seen as virtually risk free. The S&P 500 entered what has historically been its weakest 10-day stretch of the year on Sept. 18, according to BofA Global Research. Meanwhile, a drawn out government shutdown could aggravate concerns over U.S. government gridlock and send Treasury yields even higher. He noted that the S&P 500 remains above its 200-day moving average and there have been few signs of investors fleeing to safety.

Persons: Charlie Ripley, Brian Jacobsen, “, ”, Fitch, Keith Lerner, Adam Turnquist, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Investors, BoFA, Allianz Investment Management, Treasury, Annex Wealth Management, BofA Global Research, Societe Generale, LPL Financial, Thomson

☆ US stocks fall as Fed signals another rate hike this year and fewer cuts next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks fell Wednesday as the Fed signaled that rates will be higher for longer. The central bank's so-called dot plot of rate forecasts indicated one more increase later this year. It also suggested there will be two rate cuts in 2024, down from an earlier projection of four cuts. But projections in the Fed's so-called dot plot point to one more hike in 2023. Still, the dot plot represents forecasts and not actual plans.

Persons: Charlie Ripley Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Allianz Investment Management, Dow Jones Locations: Wall, Silicon

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. U.S. stocks have sharply rallied in 2023, with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) clocking 17% gains year to date, fueled by optimism around artificial intelligence and hopes of a soft landing for the world's largest economy. "But in the service side, it's been pretty sticky and that's one reason why it's taking a lot longer for inflation to subside." Reuters GraphicsOverall, second-quarter earnings have been better-than-expected so far, with 79.1% of the 422 S&P 500 companies that have reported as of Friday beating analysts' estimates, according to Refinitiv data. The S&P index recorded 17 new 52-week highs and seven new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 46 new highs and 128 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow, Charlie Ripley, it's, John Williams, Michelle Bowman, Vaibhav, Zachary Kirkhorn, Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett, Tyson, packer, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Berkshire, Tyson, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, CPI, Allianz Investment Management, York Fed, Dow Jones, Apple, Reuters, Sage Therapeutics, Tyson Foods, Yellow Corp, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Desperate for cash, the Treasury will sell one-day bills
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Cash management bills mature in a relatively short time frame, ranging from a few days to a year, according to the Treasury. Unlike Treasury bill auctions that occur on a weekly and monthly basis, cash management bill auctions are irregular, though not uncommon. Over the past 25 years, the Treasury held six one-day cash management bill auctions. Yields on cash management bills, which are determined by the auction process, tend to be higher than regular fixed maturity bills. On Thursday, the Treasury auctioned $25 billion of three-day cash management bills yielding 6.15%.

Persons: Treasury hasn’t, Janet Yellen, Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, Biden, Cash, They’re, ”, Charlie Ripley Organizations: CNN, Treasury Department, Treasury, Senate, Allianz Investment Management

☆ Stocks rise as U.S. inflation trends lower, bond yields slide
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The odds of the Fed cutting rates later this year also increased. Consumer prices decelerated to 4.9% year-on-year, the 10th straight month of slowdown as prices react to the Fed's rate-tightening cycle. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with rate expectations, slid from 4.05% before the CPI news and dropped to 3.908%. The dollar index eased 0.20% and equity markets rose as the CPI data suggested the Fed's most aggressive rate hikes in four decades were yielding results. U.S. crude futures fell 1.6% to settle at $72.56 a barrel, and Brent settled down 1.3% at $76.41 a barrel.

The likelihood the Fed cuts rates later this year also increased. "The Fed does not aim get rate policy right just in time, they aim to get it right over time." Consumer prices decelerated to 4.9% year-on-year, the 10th straight month of slowdown as prices react to the Fed's rate-tightening cycle. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with rate expectations, slid from 4.05% before the CPI news and dropped to 3.904%. Gold prices slipped as the CPI data was viewed as mixed and triggered profit-taking by some investors.

☆ S&P 500 futures are flat as investors await closely followed inflation data: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

S&P 500 futures are little changed Monday night as investors readied for key inflation reports due later in the week. S&P 500 futures inched down by 0.05%, while Nasdaq-100 futures shed 0.1%. The S&P 500 finished 0.05% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite ended with a gain of nearly 0.2%. Fox Corp. and Nikola are among companies set to report quarterly earnings before the bell, followed by Airbnb and Rivian after the market closes. Earnings season is beginning to wind down with more than 85% of the stocks in the S&P 500 done reporting.

☆ Dollar, stocks slip after Fed minutes spur recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Fed staff assessing the potential fallout of banking stress projected a "mild recession" later this year. But the minutes showed policymakers ultimately agreed to higher interest rates as data at the time showed few signs of inflation pressures abating. Money markets initially trimmed expectations for a Fed rate hike in May, pricing in a 65.2% chance of a 25-basis-point move, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) closed down 0.08%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.13%. The dollar fell with an index measuring the U.S. currency against six peers down 0.558%.

☆ Analysis-Investors cautious on U.S. stocks, even though Fed hikes may soon end
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks fell on Wednesday, with the benchmark S&P 500 closing down 1.65% after swinging between gains and losses during Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference following the meeting. Futures markets are now pricing a Fed funds rate of around 4.25% by year-end, compared with the range of 4.75% to 5% that took effect on Wednesday. A drop in Treasury yields from recent highs has also given a tailwind to stocks, especially to big tech and growth names that are heavily weighted in the S&P 500. Corporate profits are another potential trouble spot, with S&P 500 earnings expected to post year-over-year declines in the first and second quarters after falling 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Refinitiv IBES. “I don’t think the market is going off to the races,” said James Ragan, director of wealth management research at D.A.

☆ Analysis: Investors cautious on U.S. stocks, even though Fed hikes may soon end
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks fell on Wednesday, with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) closing down 1.65% after swinging between gains and losses during Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference following the meeting. Futures markets are now pricing a Fed funds rate of around 4.25% by year-end, compared with the range of 4.75% to 5% that took effect on Wednesday. US stock market during the Fed's hiking cycleUNCERTAIN OUTLOOKStocks have been resilient this year in the face of uncertainty, with the S&P 500 up 2.5% since the end of 2022. A drop in Treasury yields from recent highs has also given a tailwind to stocks, especially to big tech and growth names that are heavily weighted in the S&P 500. Corporate profits are another potential trouble spot, with S&P 500 earnings expected to post year-over-year declines in the first and second quarters after falling 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Refinitiv IBES.

☆ Dow sinks more than 500 points after Fed delivers soft rate hike but Powell pushes back on expectations of cuts this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed raised raised by 25 basis points, in line with expectations. But Chairman Jerome Powell said rate cuts this year at not in its baseline expectations. Major indexes initially pushed higher soon after the Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations to bring the key rate to its highest level since 2007. Policymakers in their statement stripped out reference to "ongoing increases" in interest rates, and its view on the terminal rate remained at 5.1%. But stocks turned lower after Powell in answering questions during his press conference indicated expectations of rate cuts this year were off track.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Janet Yellen's guarantee to banks comes with a catch
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. But investor confidence is currently so low that any reassuring comment, vague as it might sound, will sound like a promise. Tomorrow, we'll hear from the Federal Reserve and find out whether it's hiking interest rates even amid the turmoil in banks. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Regional banks popped — but can the rally last?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Jerome Powell's testimony is rattling markets. Here's what 4 strategists are saying about the Fed's hawkish stance.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

On the first day of testimony to lawmakers, Jerome Powell said the Fed will likely raise rates higher than expected. Traders are pricing in higher odds of a 50 basis-point move this month after Powell's comments. Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist, Allianz Investment Management"Unsurprisingly, Chairman Powell delivered a message with hawkish undertones in his testimony to Congress. Higher rates and inflation should prove a headwind for P/E expansion, so investors should expect total return to derive from earnings and income." Jeffrey Roach, chief economist, LPL Financial"Rates will likely be higher than expected, but inflation is still the wild card as the Fed remains data-dependent.

☆ Markets are pricing in higher odds of a bigger Fed rate hike this month as Powell delivers hawkish testimony and key bond yields top highest level since 2007
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fed funds futures pricing suggests 61.6% odds of a half-point increase, up from 31.4% on Monday. Getting inflation back to 2% "is likely to be bumpy," Fed Chair Jerome Powell told senators. There's a 61.6% probability the Fed will raise its benchmark rate by 50 basis points on March 22, according to the CME FedWatch tool tracking fed funds futures pricing. The slowdown followed four straight increases of 75 basis points. The probability for a move of 25 basis points were still larger, at 56.3%.

☆ Buffer ETFs were big winners in 2022. Here's how they work when markets rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Defined outcome and buffer ETFs proved their worth in 2022's bear market, but a murky market outlook for 2022 could make using the funds a bit more complicated for investors. Buffer ETFs — offered by several firms, including First Trust, Innovator, and Allianz — were a winning strategy for investors in 2022. And they've done exactly what we said they were going to do," said Trevor Terrell, head of distribution at Innovator ETFs. And if the rally continues past the cap, the funds could be in for a terrible year. The success of the buffer funds last year could lead to different types of defined outcome strategies coming to market soon.

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 7, 2022. Trade in European stocks was lacklustre, as signs of an improving economic outlook in the euro zone fed worries about further rate hikes. AUSSIE DOLLAR SURGEThe Australian dollar surged to $0.7123 after the latest inflation data. Germany's Ifo institute said its business climate index rose to 90.2, in line with the consensus, according to a Reuters poll of analysts, and up from 88.6 in December. U.S. crude futures recently rose 1.01% to $80.94 per barrel and Brent was at $86.68, up 0.64% on the day.

"Today's data shows that inflation is coming down, but it's lingering and is stickier than most assume," he said. Treasury yields rose, suggesting higher rates ahead for the long term, with the benchmarket 10-year yield up 10.2 basis points to 3.595%. The two-year note , which often moves in step with rate expectations, rose 3.2 basis points to 4.344%. Oil prices rose but both benchmarks were set for a weekly loss as worries over a weak economic outlook in China, Europe and the United States weighed on oil demand. Gold prices rose despite an uptick in the dollar and Treasury yields as some investors still expect the Fed will slow the pace of rate hikes from early next year.

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