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Dave Sekera, chief US market strategist at Morningstar, says that he’s watching for insights on banks’ delinquency rates. Consumers have increasingly fallen behind on or missed payments in recent months as they get squeezed by high interest rates. But banks could see higher losses compared to 2023 if the economy were to experience a downturn, the Fed warned. Investors are wagering that the central bank will begin easing rates as soon as September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “The worst outcome for all of us is what you call stagflation: higher rates and recession,” Dimon said in an interview with CNBC.
Persons: Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Dave Sekera, Stocks, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Matt Egan, it’s, , Joe Brusuelas, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, , Jerome Powell, Erika Tulfo, “ It’s, Neil Saunders, Abrigo, Gen Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, United, United States ’, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Morningstar, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, JPMorgan, CNBC, Federal, RSM, , Moody’s, CNN, GlobalData, Apple Locations: New York, United States, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, China
The US economy faces a new threat
  + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Matt Egan | )   time to read: +6 min
‘The labor market may be turning’To be clear, the jobs market is by no means imploding. Powell highlighted these changes, telling lawmakers that recent indicators “send a pretty clear signal that labor market conditions have cooled considerably” from two years. The current risk is that the Fed is injecting inflation-fighting medicine into an economy that no longer needs it. “A balanced labor market with too restrictive rates from the Fed will not remain balanced for long,” Brusuelas said. “Equally as worrisome for the Fed should be the potential for a sharper deterioration in the labor market and economic activity.
Persons: it’s, , Joe Brusuelas, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, , Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Jobs, Powell, ” Brusuelas, Ken Kim, Kim, ” Kim, Donald Trump’s, Zandi, Fed Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, RSM, , Moody’s, Fed, CNN, KPMG Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine
“Interpreting economic data is like interpreting a Monet painting in the best of times,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNN in an interview. “When President Biden takes credit for all jobs and says Trump lost all the jobs? “And until it does, we won’t have a real good sense of what the new metrics are that reflect the direction in the economy and consumer confidence.”Twenty years ago, presidential elections came down to “jobs, jobs, jobs,” Brusuelas said. “They’re going to be thinking, ‘Wait a minute, all this money’s going into this and can replace the job that guys like me do? For the average person, the economic data only means so much anyways, Brusuelas said, adding that it comes down to “protein and petrol” versus percentage points.
Persons: Monet, ” Mark Zandi, it’s, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, “ Trump, Biden, ” Zandi, , Trump, , Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, “ That’s, It’s, They’re, ’ ”, Brusuelas Organizations: CNN, Moody’s, Trump, RSM, Democrat, Nvidia, Locations: what’s
Within the walls of the White House, it was seen the same way, stoking relief among officials, who said the data hewed near the team’s own targets for ideal job creation. In the wake of the latest jobs report, many market participants are now expecting the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September, potentially easing a source of consternation for voters. Mark Zandi, an economist at Moody’s cited frequently by the White House, said certain psychological thresholds will remain important as the election approaches. In the meantime, White House officials continue to watch the data carefully and refrain from declaring victory until it bears out the trajectory the Biden administration wants to see. “The best measure of inflation is inflation,” the official told CNN.
Persons: Joe Biden, Ron Klain, , Mark Zandi, Moody’s, ” Zandi, Biden “, ” Biden, Mandel Ngan, – Biden, Biden Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, White, Biden, Democratic, Reserve, Wilmington Convention, Getty Locations: Wilmington, Wilmington , North Carolina, AFP
But there is a growing threat to that sunny economic backdrop: surging oil prices. Global oil prices are flirting with $92 a barrel amid worries about a wider war in the Middle East. US oil prices surged above $87 a barrel late last week for the first time since late October, leaving them up about 21% this year. First, drone attacks on oil refineries deep inside Russia helped lift oil prices last month. Beyond the Middle East tensions, oil and gas prices have been boosted by OPEC and its allies, which continue to restrain supply.
Persons: , , Mark Zandi, Moody’s, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Zandi, hasn’t, Andy Lipow, Brent, ” Helima Croft, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Vincent Reinhart, Mellon, ” Reinhart, he’s, Patrick De Haan, ” De Haan Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Wall, CNN, , Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Lipow Oil Associates, CIA, RBC Capital Markets, RSM, AAA, OPEC, Lipow Locations: New York, Iran, Russia, Syria, Israel, Quds,
And yet Wall Street is suddenly freaking out about bad real estate loans and empty office buildings. One regional lender — New York Community Bancorp — has seen its stock price implode and its credit rating slashed to junk in part because of its exposure to bad office loans. Japan’s Aozora Bank startled investors by blaming bad loans linked to US offices for a projected loss. That’s a major problem for an industry like real estate known for piling on debt. Importantly, Zandi said these bank failures will be limited to smaller lenders — the ones sitting on suddenly shaky office loans.
Persons: , ” they’re, It’s, , Ed Mills, Raymond James, gameplan, Paul Volcker, That’s, Spencer Platt, ” Alessandro DiNello, NYCB, Powell, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, , ” Mills, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, Zandi, ” Banks Organizations: New, New York CNN, , York Community Bancorp, Japan’s, Bank, Federal Reserve, Fed, Regulators, New York Community Bancorp, York Community Bank, Getty, Moody’s, CNN Locations: New York, sweatpants, Washington, Brooklyn, New York City
The crisis in the Red Sea threatens to damage the economy by increasing prices on consumers and delaying the shipment of goods. A Houthi official vowed on Wednesday that attacks on “Israeli-linked” vessels in the Red Sea as well as the Arabian Sea will continue. Ikea also does not foresee any product shortages from the Red Sea problems. “Shippers are now much better at using alternative ways of moving their goods around the world,” Zandi said. “We have not seen the situation in the Red Sea translate into material movements in prices in the US such as consumer goods and gasoline prices,” Schwartz said.
Persons: , Marcus Baker, Marsh McLennan, Baker, Vicent Clerc, ” Clerc, CNN’s Richard Quest, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Kristalina Georgieva, Quest, ” Zandi, Stephen Schwartz, ” Schwartz Organizations: CNN, US, US Central Command, Maersk, International Monetary Fund, Oxford University . Shipping, P, Moody’s, Global, IMF, Economic, Wednesday, Ikea, Wells, Wells Fargo Global Receivables, Trade Finance Locations: Israel, Marsh, Suez, Africa, China, Davos, Switzerland, , Asia, Europe, Germany, Wells Fargo, Iran
Against this precarious backdrop, Washington is on the verge of a messy shutdown of the federal government. A shutdown probably won’t wreck the economy, especially if it’s short. And if it a shutdown lasts long enough, it could, along with these other headwinds, do some real damage. The US Travel Association estimates the domestic travel economy would lose as much as $140 million a day from a government shutdown. “Uncertainty regarding federal operations will likely persist for the next few months.”Given all the other obstacles facing the economy, chaos in Washington is the last thing the economy needs.
Persons: New York CNN —, , Greg Valliere, Joe Brusuelas, Goldman Sachs, , Uncle Sam, Mark Zandi, don’t, ” Zandi, AGF’s, , ” Moody’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, UAW, Big Three, Federal, Federal Reserve, AGF Investments, RSM, American Federation of Government Employees, TSA, US Travel Association, Companies, Moody’s, AAA, Goldman Locations: New York, Washington, United States
New York CNN —US inflation has had a snowballing effect on family budgets. The typical American household spent $709 more in July than they did two years ago to buy the same goods and services, according to Moody’s Analytics. That figure underscores the cumulative impact high inflation has had on consumer finances — even as price growth has cooled considerably in recent months. Most of that increase in spending is driven by housing costs, which have surged, Zandi told CNN in an email on Friday. Inflation-adjusted earnings are stuck in 2019Even though prices have soared, real earnings, which adjust for inflation, are stuck at late 2019 levels.
Persons: Mark Zandi, Zandi, ” Zandi Organizations: New, New York CNN, Moody’s, Twitter, CNN, Federal, ” Bank of America Locations: New York
New York CNN Business —The United States is recovering faster than its peers from the historic bout of inflation squeezing families and souring the mood of the nation, according to a new analysis from White House economists. To address that, the White House economists built an apples-to-apples inflation metric that makes certain adjustments to how shelter costs factor into overall inflation. But we are very heartened and happy to see the trend going where it is,” a CEA official told CNN in a phone interview. And here’s the thing about inflation: It is undeniably down in the United States.”Two independent economists that CNN shared the CEA report with support the logic powering the analysis. That is absolutely a painful thing,” the CEA official said.
Persons: Joe Biden’s, , “ I’m, Mark Zandi, Republican John McCain, Zandi, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, Joe Biden, Ronald Reagan, Biden, Brian Moynihan, CNN’s Poppy Harlow, George W, Bush, Piper Sandler, Trump, ” Piper Sandler Organizations: New York CNN Business —, White House, of Economic Advisers, CNN, CEA, White, Republican, RSM, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Federal, Gallup Locations: United States, Ukraine, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, America, Europe, Wall, Middle America
The case for a 2023 US recession is crumbling
  + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Matt Egan | )   time to read: +6 min
New York CNN —Many CEOs, investors and economists had penciled in 2023 as the year when a recession would hit the American economy. But the case for a 2023 US recession is crumbling for a simple reason: America’s jobs market is way too strong. Zandi is growing more confident that 2023 won’t be the year when a downturn will begin. “We’re running out of time for a 2023 recession,” Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, told CNN. Friday’s jobs report did offer some conflicting signals, especially in the household survey, which economists put less weight on because it tends to be noisier.
Persons: Mark Zandi, won’t, ” Zandi, , Justin Wolfers, “ We’ve, payrolls, Wolfers, They’ve, ” Wolfers, ” Macy’s, Zandi, Joe Brusuelas, Morgan Stanley Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Moody’s, CNN, University of Michigan, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of America, Challenger, RSM Locations: New York,
New York CNN —At long last, the White House and House Republicans have reached a tentative agreement to raise the debt ceiling. Every day that passes without a bill to raise the debt ceiling, the probability of the United States reaching the critical date that it can no longer meet its financial obligations steadily grows. Absent a bill passed by Congress and signed by Biden, Treasury will likely do everything in its power to avoid a debt default. In contrast to debt payments, government payments like Social Security or federal worker salaries aren’t considered debt instruments, so they are less likely to come into play when the agencies rate the United States’ debt. Though prioritizing debt payments might stave off an even-greater economic collapse, the United States may not emerge unscathed.
Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and other progressives to urge the White House to use the 14th Amendment to avoid a disastrous default. Bradley argued that invoking the 14th Amendment would send Treasury rates spiking, lifting the cost of borrowing for families and businesses. Experts have warned that invoking the 14th Amendment would likely spark a constitutional crisis and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently cast doubt on the idea. US markets turned negative on Friday on news that debt ceiling negotiations between the White House and House Republicans have hit a snag. “If the rhetoric is dark next week, markets will start to react.
While most states would be “hit hard” by a debt limit breach, the economic pain would vary from state to state, according to projections released on Wednesday by Moody’s. Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania would also likely lose hundreds of thousands of jobs apiece if there is a breach of the debt ceiling lasting several months, Moody’s found. In the event of a prolonged breach of the debt ceiling, Moody’s estimates some large states would each lose hundreds of thousands of jobs. ‘A real threat’In its report, Moody’s assigns a 10% probability to a breach of the debt ceiling, up from 5% previously. “What once seemed unimaginable now seems a real threat,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi wrote in the report.
New York CNN —A breach of the US debt ceiling risks sparking a 2008-style economic catastrophe that wipes out millions of jobs and sets America back for generations, Moody’s Analytics warned on Tuesday. “A default would be a catastrophic blow to the already fragile economy,” Zandi said in prepared remarks to be delivered during a Senate subcommittee hearing on Tuesday. Citing concerns about America’s mountain of debt, Republicans have called for steep cuts to federal spending in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Given the enormous stakes, Moody’s Analytics urged lawmakers to avoid playing chicken with US debt. “Lawmakers should put an end to the wrangling over the debt limit and increase it with no strings attached so future generations can enjoy the same benefits,” Zandi said in his prepared remarks.
Inflation has gone supercore
  + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Christine Romans | )   time to read: +4 min
The new favorite: supercore inflation. Supercore inflation refers to prices that rise when workers get paid more for their services. “Supercore inflation was a strong 6.4% on a year-over-year basis through December 2022, but it is moderating,” said Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist. For the three months through December, supercore inflation is up only 2.4% annualized, and just 0.9% annualized in the month of December. “Supercore inflation is still way too hot, but it has begun to cool off, and all signs point to it and overall inflation getting back to something more comfortable over the coming 12-18 months,” Zandi told CNN.
Get ready for a ‘slowcession’ in 2023, Moody’s says
  + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Matt Egan | )   time to read: +3 min
But Moody’s Analytics says the more likely scenario is a “slowcession,” where growth grinds to a near halt but a full economic downturn is narrowly avoided. “Under almost any scenario, the economy is set to have a difficult 2023,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi wrote in a report on Tuesday. Why Moody’s is predicting no recessionIn addition to cooling inflation, Moody’s expressed optimism about the ability of consumers to weather the storm in 2023. “Shoppers are the firewall between an economy in recession and an economy that skirts a downturn,” Zandi wrote. “It is important not to be Pollyannish, but it also important not to convince ourselves that a recession is inevitable,” Zandi wrote.
The famous British economist John Maynard Keynes coined the phrase “animal spirits” to describe what drives investors, consumers and business leaders. “At the end of the day, a recession is a loss of faith,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. Yellen explained this week that recession risks permanently exist. “There are always risks of a recession,” Yellen told CBS’s “60 Minutes” in an interview that aired on Sunday. Hopefully we don’t lose faith and run for the bunker and go into recession.”— CNN’s Elizabeth Yang contributed to this report.
That’s why Moody’s Analytics chief economist is increasingly confident that the American economy will — narrowly — escape a recession. None of the financial market indicators suggest we have a recession dead ahead,” Zandi said. Zandi said he wouldn’t argue with those who forecast a recession, conceding it’s going to be a “close” call. S&P reiterated it expects the US economy to fall into recession next year, though it expects a “mild” recession in line with the 1969-1970 downturn. “I bet if we weren’t worried about a recession, the president wouldn’t have been so quick to go to Congress,” Zandi said.
Although the damage is still being tallied, early estimates indicate that Ian could be the most costly hurricane to make landfall in Florida. In the short term, a spike in jobless claims is almost inevitable, economists say: “Hurricane Harvey in Texas prompted a rise of about 50,000 in August of 2017,” noted Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics. A view of the destroyed road between Florida's Matlacha and Pine Island after Hurricane Ian. “Katrina was a much more damaging storm, and impacted Louisiana, which is much less affluent than Florida,” Zandi said. A powerboat lies atop a pile of debris two days after the passage of Hurricane Ian, in Fort Myers, Florida.
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