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The US economy faces a new threat
  + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
‘The labor market may be turning’To be clear, the jobs market is by no means imploding. Powell highlighted these changes, telling lawmakers that recent indicators “send a pretty clear signal that labor market conditions have cooled considerably” from two years. The current risk is that the Fed is injecting inflation-fighting medicine into an economy that no longer needs it. “A balanced labor market with too restrictive rates from the Fed will not remain balanced for long,” Brusuelas said. “Equally as worrisome for the Fed should be the potential for a sharper deterioration in the labor market and economic activity.
Persons: it’s, , Joe Brusuelas, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, , Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Jobs, Powell, ” Brusuelas, Ken Kim, Kim, ” Kim, Donald Trump’s, Zandi, Fed Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, RSM, , Moody’s, Fed, CNN, KPMG Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine
“Interpreting economic data is like interpreting a Monet painting in the best of times,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNN in an interview. “When President Biden takes credit for all jobs and says Trump lost all the jobs? “And until it does, we won’t have a real good sense of what the new metrics are that reflect the direction in the economy and consumer confidence.”Twenty years ago, presidential elections came down to “jobs, jobs, jobs,” Brusuelas said. “They’re going to be thinking, ‘Wait a minute, all this money’s going into this and can replace the job that guys like me do? For the average person, the economic data only means so much anyways, Brusuelas said, adding that it comes down to “protein and petrol” versus percentage points.
Persons: Monet, ” Mark Zandi, it’s, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, “ Trump, Biden, ” Zandi, , Trump, , Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, “ That’s, It’s, They’re, ’ ”, Brusuelas Organizations: CNN, Moody’s, Trump, RSM, Democrat, Nvidia, Locations: what’s
CNN —“Good news is bad news” has been a common refrain for a while now. When economic reports are released that are solid, they have all too often been clouded with concerns that good news for the economy actually means a longer wait before the Federal Reserve rolls out rate cuts. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index cooled more than expected in May, with prices holding flat on the month for the first time since July 2022. The markets don’t seem to be buying the one-cut plan, especially after the Producer Price Index on Thursday showed that wholesale prices fell from April to May and the BLS’ Import and Export Price Index showed that US imports prices fell 0.4% in May after rising 0.9% in April. And more good news is likely on the way this next week and later this month, Brusuelas said.
Persons: CNN —, , Joe Brusuelas, , ” Brusuelas, spoilsport, Price, ” Chris Rupkey, , ” Rupkey, Brusuelas Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, RSM US, New York Fed, National Federation of Independent, Consumer, Index, BLS, Price, FwdBonds, CPI, PPI
New York CNN —If voters return former President Donald Trump to the White House, he’s promised to launch an unprecedented crackdown on immigration and even conduct mass deportations. Trump recently told Time that he would aim to deport 15 million to 20 million people, perhaps by using the National Guard. Even though consumer prices are no longer skyrocketing, the cumulative impact of three years of high inflation is painful. “Most Americans view high inflation and high prices as unfair. But immigration remains a major concern for voters in the 2024 election and Trump has made it a centerpiece of his campaign.
Persons: Donald Trump, he’s, Trump, , Mark Zandi, “ It’s, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, You’d, , Karoline Leavitt, Joe Biden “, ” Leavitt, , Joe Biden, Zandi, Trump’s, criminologists, Biden, Jerome Powell, Brusuelas, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, that’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, White, National Guard, Federal Reserve, CNN, RSM, Trump, Social Security, University of Michigan, Labor Department ., The Hamilton, , Hamilton, Security, Congressional, Office, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution Locations: New York, China, Covid, Mexico, United States
But there is a growing threat to that sunny economic backdrop: surging oil prices. Global oil prices are flirting with $92 a barrel amid worries about a wider war in the Middle East. US oil prices surged above $87 a barrel late last week for the first time since late October, leaving them up about 21% this year. First, drone attacks on oil refineries deep inside Russia helped lift oil prices last month. Beyond the Middle East tensions, oil and gas prices have been boosted by OPEC and its allies, which continue to restrain supply.
Persons: , , Mark Zandi, Moody’s, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Zandi, hasn’t, Andy Lipow, Brent, ” Helima Croft, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Vincent Reinhart, Mellon, ” Reinhart, he’s, Patrick De Haan, ” De Haan Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Wall, CNN, , Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Lipow Oil Associates, CIA, RBC Capital Markets, RSM, AAA, OPEC, Lipow Locations: New York, Iran, Russia, Syria, Israel, Quds,
CNN —US consumer prices rose 3.2% for the 12 months ending in July, according to the latest Consumer Price Index, which landed Thursday. “Don’t be fooled by the uptick in [year-over-year] inflation,” noted Julia Pollak, chief economist for ZipRecruiter. Gimme (cheaper) shelter: Shelter (i.e. “Our baseline forecast suggests that year-over-year shelter inflation will continue to slow through late 2024 and may even turn negative by mid-2024,” the researchers wrote. Uncooked beef steak prices rose 2.3% and uncooked ground beef rose 1.5%.
Persons: It’s, Don’t, , Julia Pollak, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, , Anna Bahney, Danielle Wiener, Bronner, That’s, Douglas Elliman, Miller Samuel, Spencer Platt, Jonathan Miller, , Read, Biden, Michelle Toh Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, ZipRecruiter, RSM US, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, San Francisco, Big Apple, Getty Locations: Manhattan, New York, New York City, China, Silicon
What the banking crisis means for your job
  + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
The Fed’s latest economic projections, released on Wednesday, were largely in line with those from its last forecast, in December. “We are in a situation with inflation elevated and now a banking crisis on top of that,” Brusuelas told CNN. “I think that the Fed’s going to move toward an above 5% unemployment rate forecast, either in June or by September,” he said. “But the costs of failing are much higher.”A new wild cardThen there’s also the scenario that the Fed could get an assist from an unlikely bedfellow — the banking crisis. I do think the odds of a recession have increased in the wake of this banking sector crisis,” he said.
What to expect from the February jobs report
  + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
Minneapolis CNN —January’s jobs report delivered a heck of a surprise when it showed the US economy had added more than half a million jobs and unemployment had dipped to a level not seen in more than five decades. But economists say they are not bracing for another blindside when the February jobs report comes out on Friday morning. “If we get a second strong jobs report [on Friday], it’s no longer an anomaly,” Terrazas added. Seasonality, benchmarking and the interplay of pandemic-era data don’t completely explain away January’s blockbuster jobs report, economists say, noting there are likely influences from the currently tight labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ February jobs report is set to be released at 8:30 a.m.
Minneapolis CNN —January’s jobs report delivered a heck of a surprise when it showed the US economy had added more than half a million jobs and unemployment had dipped to a level not seen in more than five decades. But economists say they are not bracing for another blindside when the February jobs report comes out on Friday. “I think most economists were comfortable dismissing the January jobs data as an anomaly,” Aaron Terrazas, Glassdoor’s chief economist, told CNN. “If we get a second strong jobs report [on Friday], it’s no longer an anomaly,” Terrazas added. Seasonality, benchmarking and the interplay of pandemic-era data don’t completely explain away January’s blockbuster jobs report, economists say, noting there are likely influences from the currently tight labor market.
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