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☆ Forget next year. The tech downtrend may be in danger of leaking into 2024
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Weak outlook, reduced estimates, significant oversupply. Looking for an imminent bottom in global tech demand is proving very elusive, at least if you look at Micron's earnings report. "These are the most challenging conditions for the memory market since the financial crisis," Chris Caso at Credit Suisse said, after he looked over Micron's numbers. "Losses mount over significant oversupply," Joseph Moore at Morgan Stanley said. "In a rapidly deteriorating memory environment driven by inventory corrections/demand weakness across nearly every end market, pricing continues to be the biggest headwind to memory profitability/earnings," Harlan Sur at JPMorgan warned.

☆ Don't buy stocks in downtrend, says Worth Charting CEO Carter Worth
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't buy stocks in downtrend, says Worth Charting CEO Carter WorthCarter Worth, Worth Charting CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss his charts of the year.

☆ Stocks challenged by technical factors as market heads into final trading days of 2022
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Bad data should now correspond with higher bond prices (lower rates) and lower stocks," according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG. Broke the line Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald said he sees a warning in the S & P 500 chart. "The S & P 500 was rejected at its 2022 downtrend last week marking resistance around 4,070," he wrote in his weekend note. "Our take is that the [S & P 500] index's base is intact," he wrote. But following that gain, the S & P was down 4.6% a month later; 4.6% three months later and 19.6% six months later.

☆ No Santa rally. Stocks could soon retest their lows, strategists and analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

But, it also forecast a higher terminal rate — or end point for its rate hikes — of 5.1%. I think the market was going retest the lows anyway, mainly because market bottoms mostly have retests," he said. Stovall said the market could see a slight Santa rally at the end of the month, going into the beginning of January. Many Wall Street strategists expect a choppy start of 2023, with a test of the lows, then improvement in the second half. Sohn said there's still a chance for a Santa rally, but he expects it may have already happened.

☆ The Fed's inflation forecast was wrong and Powell shouldn't be trying to water down recession risks, according to RBC
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed was wrong again on its inflation forecast on Wednesday, according to RBC. Powell also shouldn't try to water down recession risks, since some Fed officials already see a recession in the cards. "Some of their economic projections are just head-scratchers," Porcelli said in a note on Wednesday, pointing to central bankers' inflation projections for next year. The unexpected revision in inflation projections could be because officials likely submitted their estimates before the release of the November Consumer Price Index report, which saw inflation cool to 7.7%. "He shouldn't try to water down the recession risks.

☆ US stocks fall as the Fed delivers smaller rate hike but maintains hawkish stance heading into 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks ended lower Wednesday after the Fed hiked rates by 50-basis-points. The move was widely expected, though the Fed may have struck a more hawkish tone than what traders wanted to hear. The Fed funds rate is now at its highest level since 2007, with officials expecting to hike rates past 5% through next year. Today's move brought the Fed funds rate to 4.25%-4.5%, the highest policy rate since 2007. "The effects of the tightening in 2022 will continue to be felt in 2023 through a weaker labour market, recession in Europe, and potentially a recession in the US.

☆ On the eve of the Fed’s decision, the case for stocks’ year-end strength is solidifying
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Though after the late-day Monday levitation, with the Fed decision Wednesday and the nearby presence of the S & P 500 resistance line just overhead, the rally has backed off. Inflation declining from high levels has historically been a very positive dynamic for equity performance, and investors remain in a bit of a defensive stance, so the case for year-end strength is solidifying. Of course, there is the Fed decision to get through. The crowd is arguably over-extrapolating near-term recession and earnings-decline hazards in calling for a run toward or below the October S & P 500 lows before a round trip higher.

☆ Most Gulf markets retreat on Fed rate woes, oil price slump
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-11 | by ( Shamsuddin Mohd | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Dec 11 (Reuters) - Most major Gulf equities eased on Sunday on falling oil prices amid supply woes and uncertainty over a price cap on Russian oil, while the Egypt index fell on price corrections. "Also oil prices could witness further downtrend this week as recession fears may fuel demand concerns, with European price cap on Russian oil remaining a source of uncertainty," added Mourad. Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI) fell 1.1%, with oil behemoth and index heavyweight Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) sliding 1.8% and Luxury real estate developer Retal Urban Development Company (4322.SE) losing 0.7%. However, Saudi National Bank (1180.SE) and ACWA Power (2082.SE) jumped 2% and 4.4% respectively. (IQCD.QA)Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30) also eased 1.7%, ending eight straight days of gains.

☆ Assessing the risk/reward bargain for the market into 2023, even if a recession awaits
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Assessing the risk/reward bargain for the market heading into 2023 comes down to whether this stickiness seems more like resilience that demands respect or complacence which advises caution. And, by extension, it means making a judgment about whether the now-prevailing view that a recession awaits by mid-2023 is both correct and not yet priced into financial markets. Here is how the valuation of the Nasdaq 100, the S & P 500 and the equal-weighted version of the S & P 500 has shifted since then. Even now, the current setup fits no one's definition of a cheap equity market enjoying a fat margin of safety. Yet not many market handicappers are deploying this argument as a reason to herald brighter times in 2023.

Summary Data due at 1200 GMT Dec. 12BENGALURU, Dec 9 (Reuters) - India consumer price inflation likely cooled to a nine-month low of 6.40% in November mainly due to a moderation in food prices, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Food prices alone account for nearly 40% of the consumer price index (CPI) basket in Asia's third largest economy. The Dec. 5-8 Reuters poll of 45 economists predicted the second consecutive decline in inflation (INCPIY=ECI) to an annual 6.40% from 6.77% in October. The central bank maintained its inflation forecast for financial year 2022/23 at 6.7%, the same as a recent Reuters poll. Furthermore, there are upside risks to food inflation particularly from cereals."

☆ Critical inflation report could be the key to the week ahead, as the Fed meets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Inflation and a hawkish Fed "I think the data can influence his press conference and how hawkish he is," said NatWest Markets' John Briggs. "If you get a higher CPI report on the back of that, it could create some significant market instability ahead of the Fed meeting." Recession fears "If you're more worried about recession than inflation, that means you bring in more bond buyers than sellers," he said. Retail sales, industrial production, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey as well as the Empire State manufacturing survey are released Thursday. Import prices 2:00 p.m. Fed statement and projections 2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing Thursday Earnings: Adobe, Jabil 8:30 a.m.

☆ Stocks won't be hit as badly by weakening corporate earnings in 2023 as many think, BlackRock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks won't be hit as badly by weak corporate earnings in 2023 as some think, according to BlackRock's Kate Moore. "There's a decent probability that the super bearish economic and earnings calls for 2023 are not going to prove right," she said to Bloomberg. "There's a decent probability that the super bearish economic and earnings calls for 2023 are not going to prove right. "And I don't think earnings are going to be catastrophic next year." Morgan Stanley's chief stock strategist Mike Wilson warned that corporate earnings estimates were still at least 20% too high for 2023.

☆ Why stocks aren't down even more on Friday's hot inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Will this data point suddenly make the Federal Reserve raise 75 basis points next week, versus the 50 basis point hike expected? (1 basis point equals 0.01%.) The dollar, which has been in a notable downtrend for the last month, rallied initially, then fell back. The managers collectively expect earnings to rise by an average of 10% next year (71% expected earnings to rise). Blackrock, in a pessimistic 2023 outlook, said "We find that earnings expectations don't yet price in even a mild recession."

☆ The stock market is trapped in a clear downtrend, and the situation could get worse
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

They are watching the S & P 500 as it trades below its 200-day moving average after lifting above that threshold briefly. The S & P 500 surpassed the average on Nov. 30 and fell below it Monday. The 200-day is now at 4,040 for the broad-market index, and the S & P 500 closed at 3,933.92 on Wednesday. A loss of short-term momentum "I think the real story is within the downturn, we're losing short-term momentum. Stockton said her indicators showed the flip in the S & P 500 Tuesday.

☆ One group of stocks is refusing to buckle even with a recession looming
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Bank of America here plots what has historically happened in the year before and after the Fed's final rate hike. The best return came after the 1980 halt, and the worst in 1969 right ahead of a recession with still-high inflation (5-6% CPI). A longer-term look at the equal-weighted consumer discretionary vs. energy stocks shows some convergence here as the consumer has refused to buckle, car production is in catch-up mode and even homebuilder stocks are 25% off their lows, with energy in consolidation mode. Energy stocks faltering but still holding longer-term uptrends for now.

☆ Markets are wrong in thinking the Fed would step in to boost falling stock prices, and investors should prepare for a volatile January, Bank of America's chief stock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed won't step back from hawkish policy if stocks are crashing, according to BofA's Savita Subramanian. "The higher the market goes in December, the worse it's going to be in January," Subramanian said to CNBC. But that prospect is unlikely, Subramanian said, predicting more downside for the stock market. But stocks hitting a trough next year could contain the silver lining of setting up a long-term bull market, Subramanian said. She pointed to Bank of America's valuation model – which the bank considers to be its most reliable 10-year predictive model – and estimated that the stock market could have an average annual return of 5% over the next decade.

☆ Tech wreckage catches up to Salesforce as cloud giant's valuation reaches parity to Microsoft's
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. This pattern will break at some point, so a run to the old lows or beyond can't be assumed. Big Tech has done nothing to distinguish itself in the October-November rally in terms of regaining leadership. History says the big overheated leadership group of one bull market usually is sidelined even after the next one starts. It happened to Meta and Alphabet, now finally Salesforce is valued in parity with Microsoft after 17 years of extreme priciness.

☆ X-energy to go public via $2 billion blank-check deal
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Dec 6 (Reuters) - X-energy has agreed to merge with blank-check firm Ares Acquisition Corporation (AAC.N) in a deal valued at around $2 billion, the companies said on Tuesday. Founded in 2009, X-energy develops small modular nuclear reactors and fuel technology for clean energy generation. The deal is expected to generate cash proceeds of about $1 billion for X-energy from the trust account of the special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) Ares, assuming no redemptions. A SPAC is a listed shell company that merges with a private company, taking it public in the process. After the deal closes, which is expected in the second quarter of 2023, the combined entity will be named X-Energy Inc.

☆ Asian stocks draw highest monthly foreign inflows in two years
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Gaurav Dogra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Dec 6 (Reuters) - Foreign net monthly inflows into Asian equities hit a two-year high in November on hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve could cut the pace of its interest rate hikes. The MSCI Asia Pacific index (.MIAP00000PUS) surged 14.8% last month, its biggest monthly gain in about 24 years, after being hit by aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve earlier this year. Taiwanese equities attracted $6.06 billion in foreign inflows last month, the biggest amount since 2008, while India and South Korea received $4.43 billion and $3.04 billion, respectively. Analysts are also optimistic about flows into emerging Asian markets as the dollar has dropped sharply in recent weeks. "The US dollar index remains locked in a downward bias, which could continue to provide a supportive environment for foreign inflows into Asian equities towards year-end," said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG.

The findings highlight how the housing market, one of the biggest employers in a country of around 1.4 billion people, is likely to remain a stable contributor to growth in Asia's third-largest economy going forward. Relatively modest interest rate risk partly explains why all but one of 10 analysts who answered an additional question said the chances of a significant slowdown in the housing market over the coming year were low. Nine of 11 respondents said either an economic slowdown or rising rates would be the biggest challenge for first-time homebuyers. "While India ... has been quite resilient amidst global disturbances, the chances of a slowdown in India cannot be ruled out," said Anuj Puri, chairman of ANAROCK Property Consultants. (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Milounee Purohit and Indradip Ghosh in Bengaluru Polling by Maneesh Kumar Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross Finley and Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ The difference between this comeback and the market's last failed bear market bounce
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-03 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

A 17% S & P 500 surge off a new bear-market low in a market drenched in stagflation panic? On a purely technical, tape-reading basis, the S & P 500 this trip has in fact now closed above its 200-day average, whereas it merely touched that threshold in August. The equal-weighted version of the S & P 500 is down only 8.5% this year and a mere 2% off its August peak, compared to 14.5% and 5% for the standard market-cap-weighted S & P, more evidence that the "typical stock" is holding up better than the biggest ones. This time, stocks began falling two months before the first Fed rate hike. Wall Street strategists, meantime, are collectively projecting a modest drop in the S & P 500 for 2023, the first time since at least 1999 when the consensus failed to target annual gains.

☆ The inflation story is driving the 2023 stock market forecast for now
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

What's going to happen in the stock market in 2023? That is playing against the "inflation data is improving" narrative that has been powering the stock market recently. Judging by some of the comments from strategists, 2023 sounds pretty gloomy. The S & P 500 is above its 200-day moving average for the first time since April. Seven of the 11 sectors of the S & P 500 are above their 200-day moving average.

☆ Premarket stocks: Why the stock market is channeling Goldilocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

It’s rough out there, but there is a silver lining: Persistently high Inflation is showing signs of slowing. “This morning’s data was a Goldilocks report,” wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, in a note Thursday. Gas prices also dropped between October and November, which means that inflation could keep slowing. A range of factors have led to the drop in gas prices – and not all of them are positive. The bottom line: Gas prices are still relatively high for this time of the year, but looking ahead, some forecasters see gas prices continuing to dip.

☆ Markets 'completely ignored' Powell's balanced inflation remarks and are not pricing in key risks, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are dismissing inflation risks after Powell signaled rate hikes may slow, Mohamed El-Erian said. But inflation is likely to stay sticky next year, and there are still credit and earnings risks for stocks. "So the marketplace is saying inflation risks are over. The market isn't focusing yet on credit and earnings risk, and that's because … there's no sign of a recession," El-Erian added. So keep an open mind, and let's not repeat the mistake of last year, when we all embraced transitory inflation," El-Erian said.

☆ A bad combination: Stocks are rising, but earnings estimates are falling fast
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 broke above its 200-day moving average Wednesday for the first time since April and, perhaps more importantly, is on the verge of breaking a downtrend that's been in place all year. JPMorgan has become the latest to lower its 2023 earnings forecast. The bank slashed its 2023 earnings forecast almost 9%, to $205 from $225 (far below the analyst consensus of $231), "on weaker demand and pricing power, further margin compression, and lower buyback activity." 2023 S & P 500 earnings: who's right? In the first half of 2023, "We expect [the] S & P 500 to re-test this year's lows as the Fed overtightens into weaker fundamentals," the strategists said in their note.

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