However in the 2023/24 financial year, gilt issuance is expected to jump to 238 billion pounds, according to the median poll forecast, the second highest ever after the 486 billion pounds of issuance in 2020/21 to fund COVID-19 support measures.
“It feels like there shouldn’t be too many surprises, but the gilt market remains febrile, and even small news could create oversized reactions,” he said.
Gilt issuance is distinct from public sector net borrowing (PSNB), the main borrowing measure forecast by Britain’s Office for Budget Responsibility.
Here GEMMs expect PSNB, excluding public-sector banks, to rise to a median 187 billion pounds, almost double the 99 billion pounds forecast by the OBR in March.
Next year it is forecast to fall to 142 billion pounds, versus an OBR forecast of 50.2 billion pounds.