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☆ Inflation’s real benefits beat theoretical costs
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Yet economic theory has a remarkably hard time identifying the social costs imposed by a rising price level. A more serious charge is the uncertainty that rising prices introduce into financial planning. If the theoretical costs of inflation are elusive, the potential advantages it has to offer are more concrete. U.S. house prices, meanwhile, peaked last year at a full 45% higher in real terms than when Rogoff made his plea. In the end, the practical benefits of inflation will trump its theoretical costs.

☆ Novo Nordisk’s chunky valuation risks crash diet
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Novo Nordisk’s (NOVOb.CO) weighty valuation could be headed for a crash diet. This lofty position is thanks to its domination of the obesity market via its Wegovy drug. Obesity sales for Novo are still only expected to reach $12 billion by 2027, according to estimates from Visible Alpha. It also remains unclear how fast the obesity drug market will grow. Novo reported earnings before interest and taxes of 25 billion Danish crowns ($3.72 billion), above an average analyst forecast of 22.4 billion, according to a Refinitiv poll.

☆ How Vodafone-Three can woo competition regulators
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Vodafone (VOD.L) hopes that three will be its magic number. A merger of Vodafone’s domestic unit with Three UK, the Hong Kong conglomerate’s British business, would shrink the number of mobile operators to three from four. Mobile operators throughout Europe have long lamented antitrust authorities’ preference for keeping at least four players in a market to ensure price competition. Yet Vodafone’s case would be easier to defend if UK operators hadn’t hiked their tariffs in unison by about 11% last spring, a move they seem likely to repeat again this year. That would place the competition watchdog with a tougher choice: slick 5G networks, or four low-priced operators.

☆ BNP only partly earns title of Europe’s JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, May 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Bank investors and analysts often like to say that BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) is the closest Europe has to a JPMorgan (JPM.N), the goliath of U.S. banking that just bought First Republic Bank (FRC.N). Compare that with Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), whose deposits fell by 4.7% over the same period. JPMorgan will earn a 19% return on tangible equity this year, using Visible Alpha consensus data, which is good even for a U.S. bank. There’s no shame in losing to a bigger stateside rival on returns, but BNP also risks falling behind regional peers. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ UK listing shakeup requires double dose of hope
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Neil Unmack | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Financial Conduct Authority isn’t the only watchdog to water down its listing rules, but it has more reasons than most to up its game. The UK prides itself on being a financial hub, but accounted for just 5% of global IPOs between 2015 and 2020. That’s why the FCA is proposing to replace a fiddly two-tier system of standard and “premium” listing rules with a single class. CONTEXT NEWSThe UK Financial Conduct Authority on May 2 published a series of proposals designed to encourage companies to list in the UK. The new framework would remove many investor protections currently required under the premium listing category.

☆ Slowing growth will crash European stock party
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON, May 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - European shares have been on the rise for seven months, outshining their U.S. counterparts, and are now just 6% below their record high. Luck played a part in the recent European surge. Natural gas prices have fallen more than 80% since their August peak, boosting economic growth and reducing companies’ costs. Analysts currently expect a 0.4% fall in European companies’ earnings per share (EPS) in 2023, according to Barclays. European investors have had an unusually enjoyable, and profitable, ride.

May 1 (Reuters) - Canadian singer-songwriter Gordon Lightfoot, best known for folk-pop hits such as "If You Could Read My Mind" and "The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald," died on Monday in a Toronto hospital, it was announced on his official Facebook page. Canadian news outlets CTV and the CBC cited a family representative, Victoria Lord, as confirming his death. Known for his evocative lyrics and melodic compositions, Lightfoot received five Grammy nominations over the years and won 17 Juno awards, Canada's equivalent. Lightfoot emerged from the folk music movement of the mid-1960s with signature tunes such as "Canadian Railroad Trilogy" and "Pussywillows, Cat-Tails." In it, Lightfoot coupled a soaring melody with poignant lyrics about the sailors' last hours.

☆ Digital “Chicago Plan” fixes many financial woes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The economists’ solution – often called the Chicago Plan – was to remove commercial banks from the money-creating business. One of the main problems of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) is that it would compete with old-fashioned bank deposits. With the digital money supply increasing in line with the economy’s potential growth, roughly as Friedman advised, inflation would soon come under control. Non-bank lenders like Apollo Global Management (APO.N) would have an enhanced role under the digital Chicago Plan. At present, there’s little chance of the digital Chicago Plan coming to pass.

☆ Oil AGMs presage awkward investor decoupling
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Chair Helge Lund defended a sudden reversal in February to now cut less oil and gas production by 2030. Big Oil had more than doubled its profits in 2022 as energy prices spiked after Western sanctions on Russian energy. Pension investors like the Universities Superannuation Scheme, for example, are strengthening their climate investment policies and targeting board members to drive change. The traditional oil investor base may soon start to question why companies aren’t doing much more in oil and gas, if that’s what drives profitability and market performance. The oil world’s own awkward decoupling is happening fast.

☆ European drug discounts will ruffle U.S. funder
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LODNON, April 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Europe’s plan to slash prices on pharmaceutical drugs could set off tensions with the U.S. The European Union proposed on Wednesday a legislative overhaul of the sector across the 27-nation bloc. This would incentivise drug makers like AstraZeneca (AZN.L) and GSK (GSK.L) to sell to all European countries at once. And although the U.S. is trying to tackle soaring prices with the Inflation Reduction Act, Europe’s falling drug costs will widen the gap once again. This creates a problem for the U.S. government, which funds more drug development than any other country.

☆ Sanction hit tars BAT’s US listing hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, April 26 (Reuters Breakingviews) - British American Tobacco (BATS.L) could have trouble getting more American love. The $635 million settlement plus interest may be less of a financial spoil for the $82 billion giant. Still, investors including Rajiv Jain’s GQG Partners, had hoped BAT could move its listing to the United States to close a yawning valuation gap. The reputational stain from its fine, however, raises the risk that if it were to move stateside, U.S. investors may still apply a discount. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ German $13 bln heat pump sale dents EU green hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Pamela Barbaglia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

For 106-year-old German heat pump maker Viessmann it looks like an odd move, given its technology is in demand and at the forefront of the energy transition race. Heat pumps may not be the most obvious sector to lead a revival in transatlantic cross-border M&A, down 31% so far this year. The European heat pump market rose by over a third last year, with a record 3 million units sold in 2022 after government support and soaring fossil fuel prices boosted uptake of the technology, according to the European Heat Pump Association. European Union policymakers are betting on heat pumps to reduce CO2 emissions and cut dependence on imported fossil fuels. Germany’s heat pump market grew 53% in 2022, Germany’s heat pump association BWP reported in January.

☆ Carmakers are poised for EV race to the bottom
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

On Thursday, the near 10 billion euro carmaker Renault (RENA.PA) appeared to have finally turned a corner after a painful pandemic. A Tesla-induced price war would be particularly painful for European carmakers like Renault, which is forecast to record an abysmal operating margin of around 6% this year, Refinitiv data show. But if Musk’s plan works and he hoovers up market share, Renault and its peers may have no choice. The party for European EV carmakers could be over just as it started. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

LONDON, April 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Film and TV adaptations of video games have a chequered history. But Nintendo’s “Super Mario”, along with HBO’s “The Last of Us”, is flipping the script. Jefferies analysts estimate that the “Super Mario” movie could add $350 million to Nintendo’s operating profit – equivalent to around 8% of its total for the year ending March 2022. The success of recent adaptations may lead media giants like Walt Disney (DIS.N), Comcast and Netflix to wonder what other goodies lie in video game companies. Follow @olivertaslic on TwitterCONTEXT NEWS“The Super Mario Bros. Movie”, an animated film co-financed by Nintendo and Universal Pictures, was released in North America on April 5.

☆ Worldline seeks to crack tough French payments nut
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MILAN, April 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Worldline’s (WLN.PA) boss Gilles Grapinet has spotted an opportunity to access a hard-to-crack payments market. A partnership with Crédit Agricole will allow Worldline to enter Europe’s top market for merchant payments, which several domestic banks still handle directly. Analysts reckon the French bank will confer its entire merchant acquiring business to the new company. For Worldline, the deal may be a stepping-stone to make similar accords with other French lenders or even purchase the whole of Crédit Agricole’s payments business over time. But this deal shows that payments companies still have some scope for dealmaking to improve their fortunes.

☆ Allianz picks acceptable time to quit N26
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, April 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Allianz (ALVG.DE) is striking a blow for forlorn investors of privately held startups. While that would be a 68% discount to N26’s $9 billion valuation as of October 2021, Allianz’s exit route looks agreeably straightforward. N26 has enough cash to finance its operations until the end of 2024, when it is expected to reach profitability. The fight between banks for consumer deposits will force N26 to offer better interest rates for its customers, limiting its profit margin going foward. More to the point, Allianz doesn’t have to inform N26 of an intention to sell.

☆ UK growth hinges on more than a new pension giant
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Politicians and financiers think a consolidation of the country’s pension funds would breathe new life into its stocks, startups and infrastructure. Meanwhile, there is no doubt that UK defined-benefit pension funds, company-sponsored plans that promise a specific payment upon retirement, have moved away from UK equities. The proposals also entail creating a 100 billion pound pension fund, modelled on the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, a retirement giant with $536 billion assets under management. Overall, some 19% of these funds’ assets are in UK stocks, according to the Pensions Policy Institute. If UK assets can yield the risk-adjusted returns offered by other assets, pension funds will join in too.

☆ Factbox: Little known facts about King Charles: One-time jockey and hedgelayer
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, April 18 (Reuters) - King Charles will be crowned next month at London's Westminster Abbey, following in a tradition that dates back some 1,000 years. Here are some little known facts about the monarch:FIRST REGAL SCHOOLBOYCharles is the first monarch to have gone to school, as all his predecessors were educated by private tutors. As part of his education, he spent two terms at Geelong Church of England Grammar School in Melbourne, Australia. SPORTYAs a young prince, Charles loved skiing, surfing, and scuba diving. MUSIC AND ARTS LOVERCAMBERLEY, ENGLAND - APRIL 14: King Charles III inspects the 200th Sovereign's parade at Royal Military Academy Sandhurst on April 14, 2023 in Camberley, England.

☆ Rome foot-dragging can help EU kick bad aid habits
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Rebecca Christie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is trying to pry out 19 billion euros in EU pandemic aid. Economic conditions have changed a lot since it launched its 800 billion euro pandemic recovery plan in 2020. With 191.5 billion euros requested in grants and loans, it is in line to receive more EU pandemic aid money than any of its peers, and 67 billion euros has already changed hands. EU member states approved public borrowing of about 800 billion euros to fund the aid programme. Total commitments come to only about 508 billion euros, according to a dataset maintained by the Brussels-based Bruegel think tank.

☆ “Angry Birds” may finally have found right nest
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, April 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The winning trick of “Angry Birds” is to fire your slingshot at just the right angle to knock out the squadrons of enemy green pigs attempting to steal the birds’ eggs. Japanese gaming company Sega Sammy (6460.T) may have found that position. On Monday, Sega agreed to pay about 700 million euros in cash for Rovio Entertainment (ROVIO.HE), the maker of the “Angry Birds” franchise. The 9.25 offer price is a 63% premium to the closing price of Jan. 19, when rival suitor Playtika (8II.F)made a previous approach. Half the investors have preliminarily accepted the deal, and Rovio shares are near the offer price.

☆ Rivals can feast on Credit Suisse client spoils
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Lisa Jucca | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Credit Suisse saw 110 billion Swiss francs flying out the door in the final quarter of 2022. These outflows were chiefly cash from wealthy clients and some deposits at Credit Suisse's Swiss bank unit. Those holding accounts at both Credit Suisse and UBS may dislike too much wealth concentration. And Credit Suisse is hardly incentivised to transfer securities swiftly. The minister said this was needed because Credit Suisse customers had again withdrawn money.

☆ EQT's pet-drug foray could yield tame returns
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, April 14 (Reuters Breakingviews) - EQT (EQTAB.ST) is turning to furry friends to defy the buyout market’s record slowdown. Still, it looks a stretch to secure the sort of 20% returns buyout shops usually seek. EQT’s offer values Dechra at 27 times its EBITDA for the last 12 months. Bullishly assume the group can grow revenue at 10% annually, improve the current 28% EBITDA margin to 30%, and sell after five years at a superior 28 times EBITDA multiple. Even financing a quarter of the deal with debt at 6 times EBITDA, the deal’s internal rate of return would only amount to 17%.

☆ New EU debt rules have way to avoid past mistakes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Rebecca Christie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

BRUSSELS, April 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The European Union’s new set of fiscal rules need to answer two simple questions: will they help the bloc’s economy grow? The fiscal rules are at the crossroads of the EU’s monetary union and budgetary sovereignty. Past rounds of budget rules have carried the threat of top-level sanctions but the enforcers could not follow through. EU countries need to encourage scale-up financing and allow more cross-border cooperation. New rules need to put the future ahead of philosophy to have a chance to work.

Talent agency Endeavor (EDR.N), which owns the mixed martial arts business, will tag-team with Vince McMahon’s WWE in deal valued at some $21 billion. The merger unveiled on Monday creates a new publicly traded company 51% owned by Endeavor and 49% by WWE shareholders. On paper, the WWE enterprise gets the sweeter valuation, at around 24 times last year’s EBITDA, whereas UFC is pegged at 19 times. Instead, in the grand tradition of wrestling, McMahon and Endeavor boss Ari Emanuel are trying to appeal to shareholders with a more unconventional thriller. Under terms of the deal, WWE is being valued on the basis of $106 per share, implying an enterprise valuation of $9.3 billion, according to the companies.

☆ Paris vote rocks scooter rental firms’ shaky ride
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, April 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The business of renting out electric scooters is taking a turn for the worse. Turnout for the vote was low - only 7% of the population registered for it, and they were skewed towards older age groups, who tend not to ride such scooters anyway. The sector was already facing a tougher environment for raising capital and is struggling to turn a profit. The vote is also a potential red light for Lime, which is eyeing a listing. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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