An under-the-radar recession indicator in the bond market is raising alarm that the economy could be heading for a hard landing, according to ING Economics.
Strategists at the analytics firm pointed to a tight correlation between US Treasury yields and Bund yields in Europe, with both yields slipping in recent weeks as markets reprice their interest rate expectations over the short-run.
That was the case in the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in early 2023, when a sell-off fueled by the collapse of SVB led Treasury yields and Bund yields to tumble in tandem.
"The correlation between UST and Bund yields is significantly elevated, which usually points to a hard-landing narrative," strategists said in a note on Wednesday.
New York Fed economists, meanwhile, are pricing in a 61% chance the economy could tip into recession by January of next year.
Persons:
SVB
Organizations:
ING Economics, Treasury, Business, European Central Bank, ING, Bank, UST, Bund, ECB, New York Fed
Locations:
Europe, Silicon