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☆ ‘We’re fed up’: Ballot boxes are dividing neighbors in this swing state
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Ally Hill | Mckenna Ewen | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: 1 min

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☆ There are 2 things that could go wrong for the US economy and spark a recession, Morgan Stanley says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

There are two things that could go wrong in the economy that could lead to a recession, Morgan Stanley said. AdvertisementThe US economy appears on track to keep growing, but there are two things that could spoil the no-recession forecast on Wall Street, according to Morgan Stanley. A slowdown, then people get laid off, laid off people spend less, the economy slows down more, and it snowballs," he added. "So that's another place where I think we could be wrong," Carpenter said of his recession forecast, though he reiterated that a downturn wasn't his baseline view. And if anything, where we were wrong with our forecast so far is that things have turned out even better than we dare hoped," Carpenter added.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, —, Seth Carpenter, Carpenter, Trump, Morgan, we've Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New York Fed

☆ Wall Street’s been on a two-year tear. Can the party last?
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —Wall Street traders are popping champagne and toasting the two-year anniversary of a period of outsized gains known as a bull market. What makes this bull market unusual is how much uncertainty and economic worry investors have had to contend with during its run. Historically, bull markets recover around 194% of the previous downturn, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. While the first two years of a bull market often see significant gains, history shows that the third year can bring challenges, said Stovall. On average, bull markets entering their third year post a modest return of just 2%.

Persons: Stocks, Sam Stovall, Adam Turnquist, Quincy Krosby, “, Stovall Organizations: New, New York CNN, Wall, LPL, LPL Financial, Federal Locations: New York, Europe, East

See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowWhat Are Today's Mortgage Refinance Rates? See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. Current 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates are hovering around 6.30%, according to Zillow data. Current 15-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates are in the mid 5% range, according to Zillow data. But now that inflation has decelerated and the Fed has started cutting rates, mortgage rates have trended down.

Persons: Freddie Mac, it's, Fannie Mae Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Zillow, Fed, Mortgage, Association, ARM, . Government Locations: U.S, Chevron, Government

☆ Gold prices flat as investors await fresh impetus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold was flat on Tuesday as investors await fresh insights on the Federal Reserve's stance on U.S. interest rate reductions for further direction on bullion prices. Gold was flat on Tuesday as investors await fresh insights on the Federal Reserve's stance on U.S. interest rate reductions for further direction on bullion prices. "Gold prices have been surprisingly resilient, refusing to succumb to a stronger U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields," IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said. Fed Governor Christopher Waller called for "more caution" on interest rate cuts ahead. While, Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said more rate reductions likely lie ahead for the U.S. central bank as the 2% inflation target looms into sight.

Persons: Yeap Jun Rong, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Fed, Fed Bank of Minneapolis, U.S, London Locations: China

☆ Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as investors sift through big bank earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementStocks were mixed Tuesday morning as traders assessed the latest earnings, though several results before the bell helped strike a positive tone in early trading. While earnings will be this week's focal point, investors will also watch for September's retail sales and initial jobless claims to release on Thursday. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:AdvertisementHere's what else is going on:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Brent, Adriana Kugler, Mary Daly Organizations: Service, Citigroup, Bank of America, Dow Jones, JPMorgan Locations: Israel, Here's

☆ A Fed pause would have consequences for the bond and equity markets: Dynamic Funds' Noah Blackstein
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA Fed pause would have consequences for the bond and equity markets: Dynamic Funds' Noah BlacksteinNoah Blackstein, Dynamic Funds senior portfolio manager, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, impact of AI technology on the markets, and more.

Persons: Noah Blackstein Noah Blackstein Organizations: Dynamic

☆ Americans haven’t been this worried about making their credit card payments since the pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

But they’re growing increasingly anxious about mounting credit card debt. Debt balances have been growing, and US consumers are nervous about whether they’ll be able to keep up: Americans haven’t been this worried about missing a minimum debt payment since April 2020. Outside of the pandemic, that’s the highest delinquency expectation reading seen in the monthly survey since January 2017. “For people with good incomes and good credit scores, things are going well; they’re still able to access plenty of credit and, by and large, paying on time,” he said. Now the other half, that can be a much more troublesome situation when you think about potentially longer-term credit card debt.”Lower-income Americans face higher inflation, research shows.

Persons: they’ll, haven’t, Ted Rossman, it’s, that’s, ” Rossman, Rossman, “, they’re, ” Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, The, Consumer, Fed, Bankrate, ”, Minneapolis Federal, of Labor Statistics, York Fed Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York, Minneapolis

☆ UBS sees S&P 500 soaring to 6,400 by the end of 2025
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Strategist Jonathan Golub raised his 2025 S & P 500 target to 6,400 from 6,000 in a note to clients released Tuesday. "UBS economists forecast 3.7% nominal GDP in 2025 (1.6% real), roughly in line with long-term averages," he said. Golub also noted that a "sharp decline in Fed Funds will likely increase profit margins by 20 [basis points] via lower interest expense." The Fed lowered its benchmark fed funds rates a half a point, to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%, in September. Bottom line: Stocks could consolidate to end 2024 before scaling new heights in the new year, based on UBS' outlook.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, Stocks, Golub doesn't, Goldman Sachs Organizations: UBS, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Monday's

☆ Small-cap stocks are showing signs of life
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Small-cap stocks are starting to show signs of life lately. While the IWM has delivered 12% this year, that is far below the S & P 500 gain of almost 23%. IWM YTD mountain IWM Many investors are uncertain how long the latest trend can continue. The Russell 2000 ETF is higher by 1.6% in October against 1.2% for the S & P 500, but over the past three months, the S & P 500 has outperformed, 3.6% to 3.3%. "We think Fed rate cuts have a strong ability to create a favorable backdrop for small-cap stocks," Michael Graham, analyst at Canaccord Genuity, wrote Tuesday.

Persons: Russell, What's, Brian Belski, Michael Graham, Genuity, Graham Organizations: Federal Reserve, BMO Capital Markets

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Economic growth and inflation might remain strong
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Nvidia's numbers aren't a hallucinationNvidia shares rose 2.4% to close at $138.07, a new record for the stock. Data on employment, inflation and economic growth have signaled that the "economy may not be slowing as much as desired," Waller said. [PRO] Small cap strategyMarket wisdom has it that the performance of small-cap stocks will outstrip that of big-cap stocks.

Persons: Dow, it's, Christopher Waller, Waller, Kelly Ortberg, Russell, Bob Pisani Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Nvidia, U.S . Federal, Boeing, P Global

☆ Fed Governor Waller says 'more caution' needed on rate cuts after data showing a hot economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fed Governor Christopher Waller says recent data shows the Fed should ease more cautiously. The Fed cut rates by a50-basis points last month and is expected to make a smaller cut next month. AdvertisementWaller said recent data, though, shows an economy that's still hot. He pointed to recent data on employment, inflation, income and gross domestic product. Waller said he will be watching closely for any further data that shows the Fed should ease less aggressively.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, —, Waller's Organizations: Service, Stanford University, Fed

☆ Why a 'no landing' scenario may take place after all
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A soft landing occurs when economic growth slows just enough to bring down inflation below the Federal Reserve's 2% target without tipping the economy into a recession. She thinks the economy is experiencing a no-landing scenario as it continues to expand without slowing down. "So far, clearly bank earnings are coming in better than expected, both top line and bottom line. "The other thing that that's showing [is] that our call for the 'no landing' is actually playing out." It's not just bank earnings that point to solid economic growth.

Persons: BNY Wealth's Alicia Levine, Levine, It's, Peter Perkins Organizations: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, U.S, MRB Partners Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Dynamic Funds senior portfolio manager Noah Blackstein
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Dynamic Funds senior portfolio manager Noah BlacksteinNoah Blackstein, Dynamic Funds senior portfolio manager, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, impact of AI technology on the markets, and more.

Persons: Noah Blackstein Noah Blackstein Organizations: Dynamic

☆ Interest on cash is tumbling, but these funds might be the next best way to earn some income
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve is about a month into its rate-cutting cycle, and money market fund yields are already starting to pay less. That's where short and ultra-short duration bond funds and ETFs may come into play. An eye on duration Duration is a measure of a bond's price sensitivity when interest rates fluctuate. In that case, ultra-short bond funds and short-term bond funds might be "a natural landing spot for that cash." Those ultra-short bond funds have one to three years of duration and offer some stability day to day, Bartolini added.

Persons: Brett Sheely, Matthew Bartolini, Bartolini, AllianceBernstein's Sheely, —, Vincent Caintic Organizations: Federal, Investment Company Institute, State Street Global Advisors, SPDR, SPDR Americas Research, Bond, SEC, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, . Locations: SPDR Americas

☆ Goldman Sachs to report third-quarter earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

David Solomon, Chairman & CEO Goldman Sachs, speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 17th, 2024. Goldman Sachs is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings before the opening bell Tuesday. Goldman's asset and wealth management division is also positioned to benefit from rising asset values across markets as rates decline. Last week, rival JPMorgan Chase set expectations high with better-than-anticipated results from trading and investment banking, factors that helped the bank top earnings estimates. Wells Fargo also exceeded estimates on Friday on the back of its investment banking division.

Persons: David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo Organizations: LSEG Revenue, Trading, Wealth Management, Goldman, JPMorgan, & $ Locations: Davos, Switzerland

☆ How AI is closing talent gaps by focusing on skills
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Sponsor Post | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

There's good reason to adopt a skills-first strategy: Hiring managers who practice skills-first hiring find it twice as easy to find qualified candidates than hiring managers who do not. But the advancement of generative AI has the potential to change that. To use AI effectively for skills-first hiring, talent professionals must understand how models have been developed and trained and audit and monitor those models for bias. Indeed's Smart Sourcing generative AI provides an explanation of the candidate's potential overlapping qualifications with the employer's job description. As crucial as AI will be to skills-first hiring, talent acquisition, and management always starts and end with humans.

Persons: Liz Voigt, Hannah Calhoon, That's, Calhoon, It's, They'll, that's, Voigt, it's Organizations: Statistics Canada, Jobs, Insider Studios Locations: Canada, Ontario

☆ Minnesota teacher's 2,471-pound pumpkin wins California contest
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( The Associated Press | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +1 min

HALF MOON BAY, Calif. — A Minnesota horticulture teacher remained the reigning champion Monday of an annual pumpkin-weighing contest in Northern California where his massive gourds have won the top prize four years in a row. Travis Gienger, of Anoka, Minnesota, beat his closest competitor by 6 pounds to clinch the victory at the 51st World Championship Pumpkin Weigh-Off in Half Moon Bay, south of San Francisco. His winning gourd came in at 2,471 pounds, falling short of the world record he set last year with a pumpkin weighing 2,749 pounds. “We had really, really tough weather and somehow, some way, I kept on working,” Gienger said. He said the giant pumpkin’s next stop will be in Southern California, where a team of professional carvers will do a 3D carve on it at a Halloween event.

Persons: Travis Gienger, ” Gienger, “ Locations: Calif, —, Minnesota, Northern California, Anoka , Minnesota, San Francisco, California, Southern California

☆ Fed Governor Waller sees need for 'more caution' ahead when lowering interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Monday signaled that future interest rate cuts will be less aggressive than the big move in September as he expressed concern that the economy could still be running at a hotter-than-desired pace. The Federal Open Market Committee at its September meeting took the unusual step of lowering its baseline interest rate by a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, to a target range of 4.75%-5.0%. Along with the cut, officials indicated the likelihood of another half point lopped off in the final two meetings of 2024, along with another full percentage point of cuts in 2025. In the final revision for second-quarter growth, the Commerce Department also punched up the level of gross domestic income gain to 3.4%, an adjustment of 2.1 percentage points from the previous estimate and closer in line with GDP. “These revisions suggest that the economy is much stronger than previously thought, with little indication of a major slowdown in economic activity,” Waller said.

Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, Waller, ” Organizations: Federal, Stanford University, The, Fed, Commerce Department

☆ Middle-class new homeowners are increasingly cost-burdened
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Jasmine Cui | Jasmine Cui Is A Reporter For Nbc News. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +4 min

“It used to be that if you made the median income, you could afford the median-priced house,” said Domonic Purviance, a housing expert at the Atlanta Federal Reserve. Their mortgage rate was 8.125% — above the roughly 7% national average at the time, which was hovering near 20-year highs. While that ratio is less than the cost-burdened 30% threshold, it has doubled in the area in just the last three years. From 2013 to 2023, the median annual household income in the U.S. has risen 50%, to $80,610. For example, McCue said, cost-burdened homeowners may struggle to keep up with home maintenance, leading to unhealthy or unsafe living environments.

Persons: ”, Domonic Purviance, “ That’s, Haley, Ben Williams, “, ” Ben, they’d, Daniel McCue, haven’t, It’s, McCue, “ You’re, Haley Williams, “ I’ve Organizations: Atlanta Federal Reserve, Homes, NBC, Harvard University’s, for Housing Studies, Atlanta Fed, Federal Reserve Locations: Elkhart , Indiana, Elkhart, Chicago, U.S

☆ Here are the 3 key themes driving a stronger U.S. Dollar right now: Strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere are the 3 key themes driving a stronger U.S. Dollar right now: StrategistElias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman says the strength in U.S. economy, rising geopolitical tensions and risk-on sentiment in market given a dovish Fed and China stimulus will support the U.S. dollar.

Persons: Elias Haddad, Brown, Harriman Organizations: U.S . Locations: China

☆ Financial stocks are still being woefully underappreciated by investors, Morgan Stanley says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Positioning in financial stocks is light relative to other sectors, Morgan Stanley says. AdvertisementInvestors are lingering in defensive trades that don't take advantage of the economy's strength, Morgan Stanley said, highlighting opportunities in underinvested sectors. The firm — which just last week upgraded cyclical stocks to "overweight" relative to defensives — described the financials group as particularly attractive. Morgan Stanley said net exposure to financials was in the bottom 15th percentile of a historical data series that goes back to 2010. Morgan Stanley noted that this weakness lowered earnings-season expectations for investors, making it easier for major lenders to outperform forecasts.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, —, financials, Mike Wilson, Wells Fargo, Wilson Organizations: Service, Bank, JPMorgan, Utilities, defensives, ISM Locations: Basel

☆ Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as investors await wave of earnings results
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks were mixed on Monday as investors await third-quarter earnings from major companies. Investors will monitor retail sales and jobless claims data this week. AdvertisementUS stocks were mixed on Monday as investors await a wave of third-quarter earnings results this week. More than 40 S&P 500 companies are set to report results this week, including Netflix, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs. AdvertisementBoth data points will give investors insights into the health of the consumer and job market, respectively.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Adriana Kugler, —, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Investors, Federal Reserve, Service, Netflix, Fed Locations: Fundstrat, Here's

But mortgage rates are expected to go down next year, so it could be worth waiting if you aren't in a rush. 5-Year Mortgage Rate TrendsHere's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile. But now that inflation has decelerated and the Fed is expected to cut rates soon, mortgage rates have trended down. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.

Persons: they're, you'll, they've, Freddie Mac, it's, Fannie Mae Organizations: Zillow, ARM, Federal Housing Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, Fed, Mortgage, Association Locations: Chevron

☆ I've underestimated how strong this market's been, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI've underestimated how strong this market's been, says Fundstrat's Tom LeeTom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner and head of research, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, impact of the 2024 election, market outlook, and more.

Persons: Tom Lee Tom Lee Organizations: Fundstrat Global Advisors

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