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Consequently, the Bank of England will come under pressure to jack up interest rates further and faster. It has been sharply critical of the UK government’s proposals. Investors expect the Bank of England will need to increase interest rates much more aggressively to get inflation in check. The central bank has given no indication it will hike interest rates outside its normal schedule of meetings. “If markets still don’t have faith in the fiscal picture, I’m not sure how the Bank of England wins this,” Rossiter said.
Wads of British Pound Sterling banknotes are stacked in piles at the Money Service Austria company's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, November 16, 2017. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File PhotoLONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Britain's pound plunged to record lows on Monday and bonds were slammed for a second day, as investors punished UK assets after the government's mini-budget announcement last week. The presentation of the mini-budget was received quite badly by the markets – sterling literally collapsed. The significant tax cuts announced by the Treasury Secretary cause concerns for the currency markets because of rising government debt." One is the loss of confidence in UK fiscal policy and that won't help sterling.
Markets need to brace for "unsettling volatility," Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC on Friday. The top economist predicted the S&P 500 could retest June lows due to signs of dysfunction in US Treasuries and money markets. But you just can't avoid the macro factor right now," he said in an interview on CNBC on Friday, predicting that the S&P 500 was set to retest lows near 3,600. The S&P 500 already made a start downwards since the Fed delivered another 75-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday, when stocks notched their steepest one-day decline since the pandemic. "They can create very unsettling volatility, not just volatility," he said, noting that turmoil in Treasurys is structural and has largely been exposed to the Fed's quantitative easing, which doubled its balance sheet to $8.9 trillion.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should avoid individual names for now, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down how investors should navigate the latest market volatility.
Central bank tightening — under the umbrella of monetary policy — is only one side of the equation when it comes to managing inflation. The other is fiscal policy, which is controlled by lawmakers in Congress. Coordinated fiscal- and monetary policy can have a compounding effect in stamping out inflation. But given that U.S. fiscal policy is not acting in concert with monetary policy, the Fed's efforts to bring down inflation have become all the more complicated. In the years since the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, expansionary fiscal policy — and monetary policy for that matter — has not posed much of a problem due to overall low inflation.
The Federal Reserve's Wednesday rate hike was just the beginning of the world's fight against inflation. A smattering of other central banks have followed suit, while some others took a different course. For now, pain fueled by central banks is likely to continue. The Fed's 75 basis-point rate hike on Wednesday was the first of many such moves this week as the policymakers globally confront surging prices. Three investing experts explained how to adjust your portfolio to benefit from the Fed's rate hike and rising inflation.
The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, marking its third straight rate hike. It signaled more hikes ahead to tame inflation, but the move risks tipping the economy into recession. El-Erian said higher, faster hikes and elevated recession risks could have been avoided. His comments came after the Fed on Wednesday hiked interest rates by 0.75 percentage points for the third time in a row to tame rising prices. Higher interest rates discourage borrowing, thus cooling demand throughout the economy, but the move risks slowing growth so much the economy could slide into a recession.
The Federal Reserve's rate hike Wednesday was followed by rate hikes at other central banks. Other central banks including Switzerland and Norway followed suit with their own rate hikes as inflation burns hot throughout the global economy. The Bank of England raised its key rate by 50 basis points as inflation sits at 9.8%. US weekly jobless claims released Thursday rose slightly, by 5,000 to 213,000, but the labor market remains strong. Here's what else is happening today:"Bond King" Jeff Gundlach said the Fed's commitment to big rate hikes means a 75% chance of a US recession in 2023.
This unfortunate situation the Fed is in — damned if you do, and damned if you don't — is illustrative of a deeper issue. Many politicians, companies and households risk thinking of the Fed as part of the problem and not part of the solution. And it is the latter, currently at 6.3%, that measures the breadth and likely persistence of inflation. But it was not until the end of November of last year that the Fed stopped assuring us, repeatedly, that inflation was "transitory." Just a few months ago, it was still pumping liquidity into the economy while inflation was rising fast.
The UK risks stagflation unless it can push past these hurdles to its economic growth, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. Hurdles included the European energy crisis and the government's flawed response to encouraging growth so far. The global economy is also slowing down, which means the UK's domestic growth will be hard-pressed. But it could spell trouble for the UK's economy growth, as the government will likely need to borrow more to keep providing aid. While measures have been taken to address the soaring cost of fossil fuels, the climate change agenda has taken a backseat, which could hinder economic growth in the future.
As market volatility persists, join CNBC's Karen Tso in conversation with Neil Veitch, investment director at SVM Asset Management, as he shares his views on what's next for markets, his top stock picks and which countries look attractive right now. With holdings spanning Big Tech, semiconductors, energy, autos and more, we'll ask Neil for his highest conviction calls, as well as which stocks he thinks investors should avoid. Here's what top tech investor Paul Meeks says Related coverage from Pro: Looking for a short-term trade? With holdings spanning Big Tech, semiconductors, energy, autos and more, we'll ask Neil for his highest conviction calls, as well as which stocks he thinks investors should avoid. You can watch the Pro Talk here on Thursday, 22nd September at 12:30 p.m. BST / 7:30 p.m.
Mohamed El-Erian warned of slower global growth, stubborn inflation, and higher unemployment. The top economist pointed to signs of weaker demand and the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes. "Stagflation" describes a toxic combination of stagnant economic growth, elevated inflation, and rising joblessness. In El-Erian's view, the Fed's aggressive interest-rate hikes risk choking growth and driving up unemployment, while failing to temper price increases. Earlier in September, El-Erian warned that global growth has become more fragile thanks to Europe's energy crisis, China's continued lockdowns, and the US's high inflation and waning demand.
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