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☆ Dollar snaps five-week losing streak as bets on U.S. rate hike in May firm
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bundles of U.S. 100 dollar banknotes arranged at the Shinhan Bank headquarters, a unit of Shinhan Financial Group Co., in Seoul, South Korea, Sept. 14, 2022. The dollar slipped against the Japanese yen in early Asia trade, though it rose against most major currencies, with the U.S. dollar index edging 0.06% higher to 101.84. Rising expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May have lent some support to the greenback. "The U.S. economy is heading to recession," said Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "I don't think Ueda is going to change policy at his first meeting next week," said CBA's Capurso.

☆ Dollar snaps five-week losing streak as bets on US rate hike in May firm
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar slipped against the Japanese yen in early Asia trade, though it rose against most major currencies, with the U.S. dollar index edging 0.06% higher to 101.84. Rising expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May have lent some support to the greenback. "I don't think Ueda is going to change policy at his first meeting next week," said CBA's Capurso. In other currencies, the Aussie was last 0.07% lower at $0.6738, while the kiwi fell 0.12% to $0.61705. Data out on Thursday showed that New Zealand's consumer price inflation was lower than expectations in the first quarter, though it remained near historic highs.

☆ Asian stocks subdued ahead of US inflation data, Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Data on Tuesday showed China's consumer inflation in March was at its slowest since September 2021. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 5.6% year-over-year in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Markets are now pricing in a 66% chance of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May and then pausing for the subsequent meetings, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The Fed last month raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, taking it to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. "Investors seem to be getting ahead of themselves in expecting the Fed to begin cutting interest rates", said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management.

☆ Dollar dips ahead of key US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, April 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday ahead of a closely-watched inflation reading later in the day that will provide clues on the path of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Following last week's solid U.S. jobs data, all eyes are now on the inflation report, with currency moves subdued ahead of the release. A Reuters poll of economists have forecast headline inflation in March to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said he feels that the end of rate hikes may be near. On Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the U.S. central bank should be patient about raising interest rates in the face of recent banking sector stress.

☆ Dollar dips ahead of key U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Five, ten, twenty, fifty and one hundred dollar bills spread outThe U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday ahead of a closely-watched inflation reading later in the day that will provide clues on the path of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Following last week's solid U.S. jobs data, all eyes are now on the inflation report, with currency moves subdued ahead of the release. A Reuters poll of economists have forecast headline inflation in March to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%. "Powell has said numerous times he wants to see a downtrend in underlying inflation, but the data's not providing that yet. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said he feels that the end of rate hikes may be near.

☆ Dollar pauses after strong gains on hawkish Fed bets; bitcoin hits $30,000
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Leading cryptocurrency bitcoin briefly touched $30,000 for the first time since June. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the greenback against six major counterparts, including the yen - slipped 0.06% in early Asian trading, following a 0.39% advance at the start of the week. The consumer price index (CPI), due on Wednesday, will be the next major clue for Fed policy direction. The dollar index dropped to a two-month low of 101.40 on Wednesday. Bitcoin touched a fresh 10-month high at $30,000 in early Tuesday trade before last fetching $29,787, after breaking free of recent ranges on Monday.

☆ Australia pauses rate hikes to assess tightening impact, Q1 inflation in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Wrapping up its April policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did warn that "some further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed" to ensure that inflation returns to target. Markets had been wagering on a pause, while analysts were split on whether the bank would hike again given the still high level of inflation. Three-year bond futures were up 9 ticks to 97.14, with futures now also leaning towards a pause in May, implying hikes are essentially over. "The Board recognises that monetary policy operates with a lag and that the full effect of this substantial increase in interest rates is yet to be felt." Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac, said there isn't sufficient evidence for the bank to change its terminal rate forecast of 3.85%, after Tuesday's pause.

☆ China's steel demand is set to slow. That could dent iron ore prices by nearly 30%
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Iron ore prices could fall as much as 28% by the end of 2023 as China's steel demand and output are set to fall, experts forecast. Morgan Stanley analysts say iron ore prices will fall and cited subdued production from the world's leading steel producer China, as well as the country's turn toward steel scrap. Commonwealth Bank of Australia also predicted a drop in iron ore prices, expecting it to be $100 per ton by the fourth quarter this year "as China's steel demand eases in the second half of the year," the bank's analysts said last week. Analysts say there's still upside potential for iron ore prices in the coming months, as China reopens and eases Covid-19 restriction. But they do not expect the strength of China's steel production or demand to last beyond the second half of this year.

☆ Safe-haven dollar sluggish as banking fears ebb; yen drops
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six major peers, edged 0.08% higher to 102.57 in Asian trading, following drops of about 0.3% in each of the past two sessions. The weakness comes despite a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, also the result of ebbing demand for the safest assets. The yen remained volatile in the run-up to the end of the Japanese fiscal year on Friday. The dollar jumped 0.59% to 131.68 yen , and touched a one-week high of 131.80. The yen had dropped 0.5% the previous day, when it uncharacteristically moved in the opposite direction with long-term U.S. Treasury yields.

☆ U.S. banks fallout will intensify margin headwinds for Aussie lenders, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Australian banks are "well regulated" and carry strong liquidity coverage ratios, UBS said. Regulators and bankers insist the country's banks, bolstered by post-global financial crisis reforms, are well placed to handle the solvency and liquidity shocks that rocked lenders overseas like Silicon Valley Bank in the United States. Competition for mortgages, accounting for anywhere between 45% and 65% of net interest income of banks, "has never been fiercer," with some banks "sub-economically" pricing new business, UBS said. Still, the brokerage expects the bank to report strong first half earnings on sustained operational momentum. Three of the "Big Four" banks barring CBA lost between 1% and 5% from March 10 when the first signs of trouble surfaced at the tech-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank.

☆ Dollar on the defensive as banking fears ebb; yen drops
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

In this photo illustration, US 100 dollar bills seen on an American flag. The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six major peers, was flat in early Asian trading, following drops of about 0.3% in each of the past two sessions. The yen remained volatile in the run-up to the end of the Japanese fiscal year on Friday. The dollar jumped 0.51% to 131.59 yen , erasing all of the previous day's 0.5% decline, when it uncharacteristically moved in the opposite direction with long-term U.S. Treasury yields. The token had dipped as low as $26,541 on Monday, after its retreat from a nine-month high of $29,380 last week.

☆ Australia retail sales level off in Feb as shoppers rein in spending
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SYDNEY, March 28 (Reuters) - Australian retail sales levelled off in February after wild swings around the year-end holidays, suggesting consumers are reining in spending in the face of higher living costs and rising interest rates. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday showed retail sales rose just 0.2% in February, compared to a revised 1.8% rise in January. Sales of A$35.14 billion ($23.48 billion) were 6.4% higher than a year earlier. The figure beat median forecasts of a 0.1% rise, pushing the local dollar higher to $0.6674 , up 0.4% for the day. Australia employment rebounded strongly in February, the jobless rate eased back to near 50-year lows, and business conditions remained resilient.

☆ Aussie start-up firm SafetyCulture appoints Tesla Chair as director
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 27 (Reuters) - Australian technology firm SafetyCulture on Monday said it has appointed Robyn Denholm, chair of electric vehicle maker Tesla Inc (TSLA.O), as a director to its board. Denholm, who has been an advisor to the Australian firm since late 2021, is replacing Rick Baker, co-founder of Blackbird Ventures, the company said in a statement. The collapse of U.S.-based technology-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank and the ensuing volatility in global financial markets in recent weeks has stoked concerns of higher funding costs for start-up businesses. Denholm's new role is in addition to her roles as Tesla Chair and Chair of The Technology Council of Australia, the company said. Denholm has been in various senior roles in the global technology industry, including former chief financial officer at Australian firm Telstra and is an operating partner at Blackbird Ventures.

☆ Dollar steady after Fed's rate pause hints, yen rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar was steady on Friday near seven-week lows as nervousness over the banking system kept investors skittish and traders absorbed the Federal Reserve's hints of a pause to interest rate hikes. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, fell 0.019% at 102.56, just above the seven-week low of 101.91 it touched on Thursday. The yen strengthened 0.34% to 130.37 per dollar, having touched six-week high of 130.28 earlier in the session. The euro was down 0.03% to $1.0827, easing from a seven-week high of $1.0930 it touched on Thursday. The Australian dollar fell 0.31% to $0.666, while the kiwi fell 0.22% to $0.623.

☆ Australia regulator seeks risk reports from banks on startups, crypto -report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SYDNEY, March 22 (Reuters) - Australia's prudential regulator has started asking the country's banks to declare their exposure to startups and crypto-focused ventures following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, according to the Australian Financial Review (AFR). The APRA declined to comment on the report but referred to its statement last week that it would intensify supervision of the local banking industry and seek more information on any potential impact from Silicon Valley Bank's collapse. ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ.AX) declined to comment, while Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX), Westpac Banking Corp (WBC.AX) and National Australia Bank (NAB.AX) did not immediately respond to requests seeking comment. Treasurer Jim Chalmers last week said Australia was in a good position to withstand some of the market volatility because the country's banks were well capitalised, well regulated and had strong liquidity. Reporting by Renju Jose in Sydney; Editing by Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar languishes as bank crisis fears ebb on Credit Suisse rescue
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 21 (Reuters) - The dollar regained some ground on Tuesday but was pinned near a five-week low as traders tiptoed back into riskier assets after UBS' state-backed takeover of Credit Suisse allayed some fears of a widespread, systemic banking crisis. "There has been pretty modest demand for U.S. dollars at the Fed swap lines, so that is a positive sign in and of itself," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). The dollar slipped 0.12% to 131.15 against the Japanese yen , while the U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.04% to 103.30. Lower U.S. rate expectations also added to downward pressure on the dollar ahead of the Fed's two-day policy meeting commencing later on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said on Tuesday it saw no immediate need to request the reinstatement of a U.S. dollar swap line that expired in 2021.

The slide in oil comes despite a historic deal which will see UBS, Switzerland's largest bank, buying the country's No. "The market focus is on current banking sector volatility and the potential for further rate hikes by the Fed," said Baden Moore, National Australia Bank's head of commodity research. A slowdown in interest rate hikes could depress the greenback, making dollar-denominated commodities like crude oil more affordable for holders of other currencies. "The U.S. Fed will be most important institution to watch this week," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar in a note. Separately, Goldman Sachs cut its forecasts for Brent crude after prices plunged on banking and recession fears.

[1/4] A combination of photographs shows people using automated teller machines (ATMs) at Australia's "Big Four" banks - Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (bottom R), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (top R), National Australia Bank Ltd (bottom L) and Westpac Banking Corp (top L). REUTERS/StaffSYDNEY, March 17 (Reuters) - An A$300 billion ($201.21 billion) refinancing task for Australia's biggest banks is about to get harder, say analysts, as appetite for new debt shrinks across global markets roiled by concerns about bank stability and liquidity. "Now major banks don't have to hit markets everyday... but ultimately banks can't stay out of the market forever." Refinancing today would add extra 5 to 10 basis points to banks' costs versus a week and a half ago, he added. ($1 = 1.4910 Australian dollars)Reporting by Lewis Jackson and Scott Murdoch; Editing by Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fear over bank turmoil sparks flight to safe haven currencies
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, March 16 (Reuters) - Safe haven currencies like the U.S. dollar and the yen were in bid on Thursday on renewed fears of a global banking crisis, after contagion from the implosion of U.S.-based Silicon Valley Bank had spread across the Atlantic to Swiss bank Credit Suisse. The yen jumped about 0.5% in early Asia trade and last stood at 132.73 per dollar, extending Wednesday's 0.6% gain. "Given the elevated uncertainties and concerns about broader financial contagion, the dollar, as well as the yen, will be the main beneficiaries because of safe haven demand." The European Central Bank meets later on Thursday and is due to announce its interest rate decision following the meeting. "It will definitely be a tough call for any major central bank to stick with its tightening path."

March 14 (Reuters) - Australia's economic health will be its central bank's compass for plotting the course of rate hikes, as stringent regulation insulates its banking sector from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) (SIVB.O), analysts at top domestic banks said. Analysts at three of the top four lenders - Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX), National Australia Bank (NAB.AX), and ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ.AX) - continue to expect the RBA to deliver its 11th consecutive rate hike next month. 0#RBAWATCH"The Australian domestic fundamentals remain consistent with further tightening from the RBA," Adelaide Timbrell, senior economist at ANZ Research said. Australian banking sector, while not immune to the collapse of SVB, is in a "more insulated" position, Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at NAB said. Globally, banking stocks have taken a hit from the collapse of SVB despite of assurances from U.S. authorities, prompting a reassessment of interest rate expectations.

☆ European stocks head for higher open but SVB's collapse rattles global market confidence
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Oil prices dipped as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank continues to reverberate across global markets. National Australia Bank expects the prices to drop further following a stronger than expected U.S. inflation data slated for release later. "Oil prices fall on market fall-out from the US Silicon Valley Bank collapse. While energy prices have seen some relief due to diminishing shortage concerns, upside risks remain said Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "We see upside risks to our outlook driven by a sustained fall in Russia's oil and diesel exports," CBA said.

☆ Dollar slides on likely rate pause in wake of SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Investor focus will now be on Tuesday's inflation data to gauge how hawkish the Fed is likely to be. "Given what's happened in the U.S. financial system, a 25 basis point hike is more likely than a 50 basis point hike." The market is now pricing a nearly 18% chance of the Fed sticking to its current rate and an 82% chance of a 25 basis point hike. In contrast, the market was pricing a 70% chance of a 50 basis point hike before the SVB collapse. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened 0.61% versus the U.S. dollar to 134.18 per dollar, having touched a one-month high of 133.58 earlier in the session.

☆ Dollar sinks as US intervenes on SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It had previously expected a 25 basis point hike. The SVB collapse led investors to speculate that the Fed would now hesitate to hike interest rates by a super-sized 50 basis points this month. "Given what's happened in the U.S. financial system, a 25 basis point hike is more likely than a 50 basis point hike." In contrast, the market was pricing a 70% chance of a 50 basis point hike before the SVB collapse. The Australian dollar surged 1.41% to $0.667, and was on track for its biggest one-day percentage jump since Jan. 6.

☆ VIEW US intervenes to shore up SVB deposits, stem financial fallout
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

March 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. government announced actions to shore up deposits and stem any broader financial fallout from the sudden collapse of tech startup-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) (SVB), sending U.S. stock futures higher. "The market turbulence sparked by SVB has upended rising market expectations on the Fed rate path. The fact that SVB and Signature Bank depositors will be made whole is critical in maintaining trust in the financial system and should help stem contagion fears this week. But it also means that 50 basis points (a possible Fed interest rate hike) is off the table." Given what's happened in the U.S. financial system, a 25 basis point hike is more likely than a 50 basis point hike."

☆ Dollar slides as U.S. intervenes on SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. government announced several measures early on Monday Asian hours, and said all SVB customers will have access to their deposits starting on Monday. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, fell 0.153% at 104.080. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.34% to 134.52 per dollar, the highest in a month as investors made a move to safe-haven Asian currencies. "The currency market is still digesting all the news related to the collapse of SVB," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank Of Australia. The Australian dollar rose 0.79% to $0.663, while the kiwi rose 0.36% to $0.616.

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