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An under-the-radar recession indicator in the bond market is raising alarm that the economy could be heading for a hard landing, according to ING Economics. Strategists at the analytics firm pointed to a tight correlation between US Treasury yields and Bund yields in Europe, with both yields slipping in recent weeks as markets reprice their interest rate expectations over the short-run. That was the case in the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in early 2023, when a sell-off fueled by the collapse of SVB led Treasury yields and Bund yields to tumble in tandem. "The correlation between UST and Bund yields is significantly elevated, which usually points to a hard-landing narrative," strategists said in a note on Wednesday. New York Fed economists, meanwhile, are pricing in a 61% chance the economy could tip into recession by January of next year.
Persons: SVB Organizations: ING Economics, Treasury, Business, European Central Bank, ING, Bank, UST, Bund, ECB, New York Fed Locations: Europe, Silicon
Read previewSteep rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could be coming later this year thanks to weakening in the job market, which likely isn't as robust as some of the latest data has made it out to be, according to Wells Fargo strategist Erik Nelson. Advertisement"We need a catalyst, we need some data that shows these recent, strong data were just a blip. But much of that strength may be seasonal and no longer reflected in upcoming job reports, Nelson said. Other market commentators have warned that hiring activity could weaken in 2024 as tighter financial conditions take a toll on businesses. Though the jobless rate is low, continuing unemployment claims are hovering around 1.9 million, according to Fed data.
Persons: , Wells, Erik Nelson, Nelson, Paul Dietrich Organizations: Service, Federal, Bloomberg, Business, Fed, New York Fed, Yale School of Management
Real wages in Russia increased by 7.6% in the first 11 months of 2023, beating inflation. Russia's economy remains resilient due to wartime spending and government subsidies. AdvertisementRussia's wartime labor crunch is boosting salaries so much that wage gains are beating inflation. Real wages have risen 33.2% over six years, he added. As the war Ukraine heads into its third year, Russia's economy appears resilient.
Persons: , Anton Kotyakov, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Elvira Nabiullina, Nabiullina Organizations: Service, Russia's, Labor, Social Protection, TASS, Bloomberg Locations: Russia, Ukraine
Hong Kong/New Delhi CNN —Japan’s stock market defied gloomy economic data to rally Friday, lifting broader Asian shares and ending the week on a buoyant note. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index closed above 38,000 points for the second day in a row, just a whisker off its historic peak reached in December 1989. “If anything, the window of opportunity created by the weak yen is encouraging international investors, as they suspect it will close soon,” he added. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asian shares excluding Japan closed more than 1% higher. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 closed at a record high of 5,029.73 Thursday as US stocks bounced back from steep losses earlier this week.
Persons: , Neil Newman, Stephen Innes, Austan Goolsbee, Innes, Korea’s Organizations: Hong Kong / New Delhi CNN, Analysts, Japan, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed Locations: Hong Kong / New Delhi, Tokyo, United Kingdom, Asia, Pacific, New York, China
The PEG ratio, another valuation tool, starts with the price-to-earnings ratio and divides the P/E by estimated earnings growth. A good PEG ratio is 1 or lower. There is a major consideration when analyzing five-year valuation average comparisons: interest rates. The company's P/E ratio of 21.5 times is about 20% cheaper than peers and below its historical average of 29.6. Honeywell Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E): 19.4 P/E vs. peers: 10% cheaper P/E-to-growth ratio (PEG): 2.3 We like how Honeywell 's stock is valued post-earnings .
Persons: Bard, it's, Pacifico, Jim Cramer, Disney Price, Nelson Peltz, Jim, Peltz, Bob Iger, Honeywell Price, Nvidia Price, Nvidia's, Salesforce Price, we're, Wells Fargo, Charlie Scharf, Wynn, WYNN, Jim Cramer's, NVDA, New York Stock Exchange Michael Nagle Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Google, Gemini, Amazon, Services, Constellation Brands, Modelo, Beer, Constellation, . Management, Disney, Management, Honeywell, Aerospace, Productivity Solutions, Starbucks, Wells, Silicon Valley Bank, Wynn Resorts EV, Wynn Resorts, Boston, WYNN, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: FactSet, Corona, China, Israel, Wells Fargo Price, Wells Fargo, Silicon, Macao, Las Vegas
Inflation cooled less than expected in January and showed worrying staying power after volatile food and fuel costs were stripped out — a reminder that bringing price increases under control remains a fraught, bumpy process. But after stripping out food and fuel, which bounce around in price from month to month, “core” prices held roughly steady on an annual basis, climbing 3.9 percent from a year earlier. American consumers, the White House and Federal Reserve officials had welcomed a recent moderation in inflation. Central bankers in particular are likely to take the fresh report as a reminder that they need to remain cautious. Policymakers have been careful to avoid declaring victory over inflation, insisting that they needed more evidence that it was coming down sustainably.
Organizations: White, Federal Reserve
New Zealand central bank blames inflation for restrictive policy
  + stars: | 2024-02-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Adrian Orr, governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), speaks during a news conference in Wellington, New Zealand, on Thursday, Aug. 9, 2018. New Zealand's top central banker on Monday said the inflation challenge was still not over and cited broad financial pressure for retaining a "restrictive monetary policy" position. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr, appearing before a parliamentary committee, said the current inflation rate at 4.7% was still too high and that the board's aim was to continue to slow it down to around 2%. "That's why we've retained a restrictive monetary policy stance with the official cash rate at 5.5% and we'll be back at the end of this month again with our updated views on the wisdom of that stance," Orr told lawmakers. The bank is due to meet at the end of the month.
Persons: Adrian Orr, we've, we'll, Orr Organizations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Locations: Wellington , New Zealand
That left Fed officials bracing for the latest batch of revised CPI data, released Friday morning, which some feared could take away the inflation progress they observed last year. Instead, officials got some good news: December’s monthly inflation wasn’t as bad as initially reported, according to newly revised figures from the BLS. And for other months last year, initial data was either unchanged or revised by no more than one-tenth of a percentage point up or down. Recent data revisions have complicated the Fed’s monetary policy decisionsFed officials have been complaining about data revisions to key economic reports lately. But if revised data indicates that job gains didn’t actually slow that much in a month, cutting rates could move the inflation rate further from their target.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Friday’s, Kieran Clancy, ” Clancy, , ” “, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, , Pantheon Locations: New York
And yet Wall Street is suddenly freaking out about bad real estate loans and empty office buildings. One regional lender — New York Community Bancorp — has seen its stock price implode and its credit rating slashed to junk in part because of its exposure to bad office loans. Japan’s Aozora Bank startled investors by blaming bad loans linked to US offices for a projected loss. That’s a major problem for an industry like real estate known for piling on debt. Importantly, Zandi said these bank failures will be limited to smaller lenders — the ones sitting on suddenly shaky office loans.
Persons: , ” they’re, It’s, , Ed Mills, Raymond James, gameplan, Paul Volcker, That’s, Spencer Platt, ” Alessandro DiNello, NYCB, Powell, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, , ” Mills, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, Zandi, ” Banks Organizations: New, New York CNN, , York Community Bancorp, Japan’s, Bank, Federal Reserve, Fed, Regulators, New York Community Bancorp, York Community Bank, Getty, Moody’s, CNN Locations: New York, sweatpants, Washington, Brooklyn, New York City
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester on Tuesday became the latest central banker to advocate a patient approach to cutting interest rates this year. Like several other officials who have spoken recently, Mester said she's not ready to start easing policy until she gains more confidence that inflation is on a stable path towards the Fed's 2% goal. Having a strong economy allows policymakers to hold off on any dramatic moves, she added. "My base case is that we will do so at a gradual pace so that we can continue to manage the risks to both sides of our mandate." Markets have moved back expectations for the first cut to May, with five total quarter percentage point moves lower priced in, according to the CME Group's FedWatch futures gauge.
Persons: Loretta Mester, Mester, she's, Jeff Cox Organizations: Cleveland Federal, Market
What's on deck:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Long considered the bane of white-collar workers' existence, people now view cubicles as a sanctuary instead of a jail cell. AdvertisementCalling for a return to the cubes might seem odd when so many are pushing to evolve the workplace. Experts told Business Insider that a wave of retiring Boomers means the generation will soon be at "peak burden" to the economy. Get in touchAdvertisementinsidertoday@insider.comTo read unlimited articles, subscribe to Business Insider.
Persons: , It's, Rebecca Zisser, Long, Kelli María Korducki, haven't, Korducki, cubicles, Ken Griffin, Vernon Yuen, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, buybacks, Tammi Jantzen, Joe Rogan, Both Rogan, BI's Peter Kafka, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb Organizations: Service, Business, Corporate, Citadel, Getty, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Spotify, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Boomers, Caterpillar Inc Locations: Silicon Valley, Wellington, Astarte, China, New York, London
Dollar scales fresh peaks as Fed cut bets recede
  + stars: | 2024-02-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
"A one-two punch from Jay Powell's FOMC presser and a very strong nonfarm payrolls report have essentially closed the door on a March rate cut," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. The Japanese yen was last 0.15% lower at 148.58 per dollar, having hit a trough of 148.82 earlier in the session. Treasury yields also jumped on expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. rates, with the two-year yield, which typically reflects near-term interest rate expectations, last up nearly seven bps at 4.4386%. That did little to help the yuan, with the offshore yuan last marginally lower at 7.2182 per dollar, pressured by a stronger greenback. "So far we've just seen speculation and some media reports talking about further support for the equity market or the property market.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Jay Powell's FOMC presser, Chris Weston, Powell, Carol Kong, CBA's Organizations: Federal Reserve, New, Traders, Fed, CBS, Sterling, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, New Zealand
“We’ve had a very strong labor market, and we’ve had inflation coming down,” Mr. Powell said. “So I think whereas a year ago, we were thinking that we needed to see some softening in the economy, that hasn’t been the case. But few if any economists expected job gains to remain this robust at a time when higher interest rates were expected to meaningfully weigh down the economy. The question for the Fed is what it means if the job market not only fails to slow down as anticipated, but actually accelerates again. While one month of data does not make a trend, officials are likely to keep an eye on strong hiring and wage growth.
Persons: “ We’ve, we’ve, ” Mr, Powell, hasn’t, Mr
Venture capitalists need to free up cash and return money to their own investors, known as limited partners (LPs). The secondary share sales market in the US is well established. Bad timingMost VC funds agree to return their profits to their LPs within 10 years. A record 31 secondary funds headquartered in Europe were established in 2021, amid the hype period, with $29 billion in assets under management per PitchBook. It all comes down to how buoyant the VC market is: "If the market is good again, then who's going to sell secondary?
Persons: There's, Michael Smith, Regeneration's Smith, Kelly Rodriques, Hussein Kanji, Kanji, Hussein, Tom Henrikkson, OpeanOcean, it's, Henrikkson Organizations: Venture, Business, Industry Ventures, Cherry Ventures, Ventures, Albion, Forge, Financial Times, VC, Hoxton Ventures, Sequoia Locations: Silicon Valley, Europe, San Francisco, Amsterdam, London
Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 353,000 for the month, much better than the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Job growth was widespread on the month, led by professional and business services with 74,000. The report also indicated that December's job gains were much better than originally reported. The January payrolls count comes with economists and policymakers closely watching employment figures for direction on the larger economy. The fourth quarter saw GDP increase at a strong 3.3% annualized pace, closing out a year in which the economy defied widespread predictions for a recession.
Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Labor, Gross, Atlanta, Fed Locations: U.S
The first Fed rate cut probably isn't coming until June, according to Bank of America. Central bank chief Jerome Powell pushed back on hopes for a March rate cut on Wednesday. AdvertisementThe Fed's first rate cut is now unlikely to come in March after the central bank struck a surprisingly hawkish tone at Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, according to Bank of America. Investors still see an aggressive pace of rate cuts by the end of the year, despite lowered hopes for a March cut. AdvertisementExperts have warned that Fed rate cuts could be a double-edged sword for the economy, particularly if the Fed cuts interest rates rapidly.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Jerome Powell's presser, aren't, Powell, Jeff Gundlach Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Fed
New York CNN —Earnings season is in full swing, and that means investors get a chance to hear from multinational companies about the state of the global economy. Some of the United States’ biggest companies are in the hot seat to answer questions about the economy, and where it could be headed. Like the rest of the US, companies are watching whether the economy could still tip into a recession as interest rates hover around a 23-year high. Achieving a soft landing, or a situation in which inflation comes down without an economic downturn, looks likely, some companies said. According to the UK government’s own estimates, the checks — including physical inspections from April — will cost British businesses about £330 million ($419 million) annually and increase food inflation by about 0.2 percentage points over three years.
Persons: it’s, , Michael Hsu, Kimberly, Clark, Blackstone, Stephen Schwarzman, Christophe Le Caillec, Jim Vondruska, We’re, Robert Isom, Lorenzo Simonelli, Baker Hughes, Alan Schnitzer, Elisabeth Buchwald, , Christopher Waller, Waller, Hanna Ziady, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, United States ’, American, O'Hare Airport, Travelers Companies, , European Union Locations: New York, Chicago , Illinois, United Kingdom, Britain
Dollar holds firm before Fed rates decision
  + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
On the day, the dollar index was up 0.1% to 103.51, just below Monday's 103.82 which matched last week's seven-week high. The Federal Reserve meanwhile is expected to hold U.S. interest rates steady on Wednesday but flag cuts are coming by dropping language indicating it is weighing further hikes. Interest rate futures price a roughly 43% chance of a Fed rate cut in March, down from 73% at the start of the year. A slowdown in Germany would foreshadow the same in Eurozone numbers due on Thursday and reinforce market expectations that European policymakers could start rate cuts earlier than the ECB has signalled. Expectations of interest rate cuts in China have driven a strong rally in the bond market this month while the yuan has been squeezed by flight from China's crumbling equity markets.
Persons: Jerome, Powell, Dane Cekov Organizations: Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Federal, U.S, French EU, ECB, Bank of Locations: U.S, Germany, China
Dollar eyes monthly gain as markets look to Fed
  + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A Japanese 10,000 yen and a U.S. 100 dollar banknote juxtaposed against each other in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, June 20, 2016. Later, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold U.S. interest rates steady but flag cuts are coming by dropping language indicating it is weighing further hikes. Interest rate futures price a roughly 43% chance of a Fed rate cut in March, down from 73% at the start of the year. "A 100% probability of a rate cut would point to euro/dollar at $1.1080, while a rate cut that is fully ruled out for March would point the way to euro/dollar at $1.0660," he said. Expectations of interest rate cuts in China have driven a strong rally in the bond market this month while the yuan has been squeezed by flight from China's crumbling equity markets.
Persons: Sterling, Alan Ruskin Organizations: Bank of Japan's, Federal Reserve, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Tokyo, Japan, Asia, China
The Federal Reserve is fed up with data revisions
  + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +11 min
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said large revisions in data are tainting his assessments of how the economy is doing. Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesThat’s well above the average month-over-month revised change in job totals from 1973 to the latest available revision data, according to the BLS. The official summary of what Fed officials said and discussed during their September meeting — also known as the Fed minutes — stated: “A few participants observed that there were challenges in assessing the state of the economy because some data continued to be volatile and subject to large revisions.”Spokespeople from the Federal Reserve declined to answer which data Fed officials were referring to. Frequent and large revisions to economic data are weighing on Federal Reserve decision-making, Governor Michelle Bowman said. “We want to be data dependent, but not data point dependent,” Williams said.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, it’s, Al Drago, ” Waller, , Michelle Bowman, , Spokespeople, he’s, don’t, Erica Groshen, David Wilcox, Laura Kelter, Kelter, Groshen, Wilcox, John Williams, ” Williams, Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal Reserve, , of Labor Statistics, BLS, Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, Fed, Ohio Bankers League, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Department, Census, Labor, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Employment, CNN, Wilcox . New York Fed Locations: New York, Wilcox . New
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday, but investors will be watching closely for any hint at when and how much it might lower those rates this year. The expected rate cuts raise a big question: Why would central bankers lower borrowing costs when the economy is experiencing surprisingly strong growth? And while hiring has slowed, America still boasts an unemployment rate of just 3.7 percent — a historically low level. The data suggest that even though the Fed has raised interest rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, the highest level in more than two decades, the increase has not been enough to slam the brakes on the economy. In fact, growth remains faster than the pace that many forecasters think is sustainable in the longer run.
Organizations: Federal Reserve Locations: States, America
The US is headed for a debt "death spiral" if politicians don't rein in spending, Nassim Taleb said. "The Black Swan" author said debt troubles will continue if Congress can't"A debt spiral is like a death spiral," Taleb said at an event on Monday. AdvertisementThe US is facing a "death spiral" as a result of its mounting debt and the inability of politicians to confront the issue, according to "The Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb. In fact, rising debt in the US is a "white swan," Taleb said, and is an event that poses an obvious risk to markets versus a "black swan" event, which can occur without much warning. "A debt spiral is like a death spiral," he added.
Persons: Nassim Taleb, Swan, Taleb, , Per, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Per Bloomberg, Universa Investments, Fed, Investors Locations: West, Congress
It appears that a soft landing, where price rises are tamed and the economy manages to avoid recession, is possible. Before the Bell: Is it fair to say that the US is outpacing China in the race for economic supremacy? Just last year people might have said the opposite — that the US was heading towards recession and the Chinese economy was thriving. It is remarkable to see the US economy blazing ahead while the Chinese economy sputters and slips into deflation. What else should investors be aware of when they read about the Chinese economy?
Persons: Bell, Eswar Prasad, Jamie Dimon, he’s, Marianne Lake, Jennifer Piepszak, Piepszak, Troy Rohrbaugh, Rohrbaugh, Dimon, hasn’t, , Brian Fung, Oregon Democratic Sen, Ron Wyden, Biden Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Cornell University, International Monetary, JPMorgan, JPMorgan Chase, Bloomberg, NSA, National Security Agency, Oregon Democratic, Pentagon, CNN Locations: New York, China, Oregon
Dollar steady in cautious start to busy data, Fed week
  + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
U.S. one hundred dollar bills are being shown in this picture illustration taken in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on December 15, 2023. The dollar started the week on a steady footing as investors took stock of U.S. economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meeting this week, while escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept risk sentiment in check. But since then, strong economic data and pushback from central bankers have prompted traders to adjust expectations. Beyond the Fed, investors will also watch for a slew of economic data including a U.S. payrolls report that will help gauge the strength of labor market. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar rose 0.21% to $0.659, while the New Zealand dollar gained 0.18% to$0.610.
Persons: Marc Chandler, Chandler, Jerome Powell, Paul Mackel, Sterling, Joe Biden, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal, HSBC, Bank of England, U.S, New Zealand Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, U.S, Bannockburn, Jordan, Syrian, Iran, Israel
Washington, DC CNN —A slew of economic news this week will make it much clearer if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The Labor Department is due to release four crucial assessments of America’s job market, gauging labor demand, wage growth, productivity and hiring. Wages and the Fed on Wednesday: The day after, the Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter, a comprehensive measure of employers’ labor costs. The US Labor Department releases December data on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter.
Persons: that’s, , Christian Scherrmann, Jerome Powell, ” Michael Feroli, , ” Feroli, Powell, Alicia Wallace, Joe Brusuelas, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, DWS, Labor, Survey, Fed, Employers, PCE, Federal, Commerce Department, RSM, Whirlpool, Microsoft, UBS, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Cleveland Cliffs, Mondelez International, JetBlue Airways, Global, US Labor Department, Board, National Bureau of Statistics, Novo Nordisk, Mastercard, Novartis, Boeing, ADP, Nasdaq, Nomura Holdings, Apple, Shell, Honeywell, Deutsche Bank, Clorox, Quest Diagnostics, United States Steel, Bank of England, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Marathon, Cleveland, Chevron
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