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BOJ chooses slow path out of zero-rate limbo
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Peter Thal Larsen | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
REUTERS/Susana Vera Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG, Oct 31 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The Bank of Japan (8301.T) is taking the long road out of zero-interest rate limbo. On the face of it, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and his colleagues made few policy changes at their latest meeting. The short-term interest rate remains negative, while the official yield target for 10-year Japanese government bonds is unchanged at 0%. However, the real challenge for Ueda is when to end the era of negative short-term interest rates. The BOJ’s nine-member board maintained its target for short-term interest rates of -0.1%.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Susana Vera, Haruhiko Kuroda, Ueda, , Antony Currie, Thomas Shum Organizations: Japan, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Reuters, Bank of Japan, U.S, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, HONG KONG, Japan
Passersby walk past an electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 4, 2023. On Tuesday, the 10-year JGB yield jumped 6.5 basis points to 0.955%, its highest since May. "Markets seem to assume that the ceiling will be lifted by another 50 basis points, but I think the possibility of another doubling (i.e. The dollar index , which measures U.S. currency against six rivals, rose 0.104%. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 1.1 basis points to 4.888%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up 0.7 basis points to 5.042%.
Persons: Issei Kato, Nicholas Chia, Chia, Sterling, Hong, HSI, Jerome Powell, Gary Dugan, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Lincoln Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of, Nikkei, Standard Chartered, Japan's Nikkei, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, BOJ, Federal Open Markets, Dalma, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Shanghai, U.S, Singapore
Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. That sent the yen sliding nearly 0.7% against the dollar , past the 150 per dollar threshold to hit an intraday low of 150.12, before steadying to 149.93 per dollar. The euro similarly jumped roughly 0.5% against the yen following the decision . Spain's 12-month inflation in October was unchanged from the previous month at 3.5%, preliminary data also out on Monday showed. The figures come ahead of euro zone inflation data due later on Tuesday.
Persons: Yen, Dado Ruvic, Thierry Wizman, Sterling, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Federal Reserve, U.S ., Bank of England, Australian, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, steadying, U.S, Germany
CNBC Daily Open: Market bounce may not last
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The BOJ also revised its inflation outlook for Japan higher, forecasting core CPI to hit 2.8% and 1.7% for the fiscal years 2024 and 2025. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the close of its two-day meeting Wednesday. But the Fed has been notoriously off the mark when it comes to predictions about monetary policy, writes CNBC's Jeff Cox.
Persons: Elon Musk, Jeff Cox Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow, Industrial, China's, Bank of Japan, Samsung Electronics, Panasonic, Federal Reserve Locations: New York City, Asia, Pacific, China's Shanghai, Japan
BOJ modifies yield curve control, re-defines long-term rate cap
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
An office employee walks in front of the bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, April 7, 2023. REUTERS/Androniki Christodoulou Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan modified its bond yield control again on Tuesday by re-defining 1.0% as an "upper bound" with room for allowance, rather than a rigid cap. "The BOJ will regard the upper bound of 1.0% for the 10-yaer Japanese government bond (JGB) yield as a reference" and continue large-scale bond buying and nimble market operations, the central bank said in a statement. As widely expected, the BOJ maintained a 0.1% interest charged on financial institutions' excess reserves parked with the central bank, and a 0% target for the 10-year government bond yield set under its yield curve control (YCC) policy. Reporting by Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto Editing by Chang-Ran KimOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Androniki, Leika Kihara, Chang, Ran Kim Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Japan, Tokyo
Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Tuesday ahead of global central bank meetings and as tensions in the Middle East remained high. Israeli troops and tanks attacked Gaza's main northern city from the east and west on Monday, three days after it began ground operations in the Palestinian enclave. Traders were also keeping a close eye on global monetary policy, with rate-setting meetings of major central banks scheduled for this week. The U.S. Federal Reserve will meet on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday to discuss monetary policy and decide on potential future inflation-busting interest rate hikes. Investors are also expecting Chinese purchasing managers index data and third quarter gross domestic products figures from Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Organizations: Brent, West Texas, Traders, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Investors Locations: Gaza, Israel, Hong Kong, Taiwan
Japan's central bank is allowing more flexibility in its yield curve control policy, shifting the language used to describe the upper bound of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield. In its release, the Bank of Japan said the target level of the 10-year JGB yield will be held at 0%, but will take the upper bound of 1% "as a reference," it said in the latest release. In July, the BOJ effectively widened its yield target band on the 10-year JGB by 50 basis points to 1% on either side. However, the bank indicated it will commit to allowing yields to fluctuate in the range of around plus and minus 0.5 percentage points from its 0% target level that was instituted last December. Separately, the bank continued to hold its short term policy rate at -0.1%, even as core inflation in the country exceeded the stated 2% target for 18 consecutive months.
Organizations: Bank of Japan, CPI
REUTERS/Issei Kato Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Wednesday authorities were on standby to respond to recent "one-sided, sharp" moves in the yen, escalating his warning to investors against pushing down the currency too much. "Speculative trading seems to be the biggest factor behind recent currency moves," Kanda, vice finance minister for international affairs, told reporters on the yen's declines. The situation surrounding yen moves has become "more tense" than before, he said, adding that authorities will "respond appropriately without ruling out any options". After sliding to 151.715 against the dollar overnight on Tuesday, the yen stood at 151.350 in Asia on Wednesday. It intervened again in October 2022 after the yen plunged to a 32-year low of 151.94.
Persons: Masato Kanda, Issei Kato, Kanda, Takaya Yamaguchi, Satoshi Sugiyama, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Reuters, Finance Ministry, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs expects BOJ to make a 'bigger' policy decision in April after 2024 spring wage talksTomohiro Ota of Goldman Sachs says wage growth led inflation is key for the Bank of Japan's decisions, and expects 2024 spring wage talks to be to crucial to the timing of policy tightening.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, BOJ, Tomohiro Ota Organizations: Bank of
REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. But Asian markets' first chance to react to that will be Thursday. But if the yuan is under pressure, it is nothing compared to the onslaught Japan's yen is facing. The currency and bond market reactions to the BOJ's policy tweak could not have been more different - the yen fell the most since April, while Japanese bond yields surged to a fresh decade-high. World, U.S. and Asian stocks all fell for a third month in a row, bond yields surged and financial conditions tightened significantly.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Jamie McGeever, China's Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, U.S . Federal, U.S, Treasury, PMI, Tuesday, China PMI, Indonesia CPI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, India, South Korea, Indonesia, Korean, Hong Kong, China
But it's also likely the BOJ have their finger on the intervention button to cap any runaway rally on USD/JPY." Nevertheless, this is working in a way to increase the volatility of the global rates market. This means it will still have a certain distance until the BOJ exit from the negative rate policy." "A yield cap isn't a yield cap if you change it every time the market gets close." The Bank of Japan could lift the negative policy rate to zero over the coming year.
Persons: Kim Kyung, KYLE RODDA, MATT SIMPSON, JPY, it's, NOMURA, They've, TONY SYCAMORE, normalisation, TAKAYUKI MIYAJIMA, ROB CARNELL, they're, JEFF NG, TOM NASH, OMORI, SHOTARO KUGO, me, IZURU KATO, MARCEL THIELIANT, today's, FREDERIC NEUMANN, CHRISTOPHER WONG, BOJ's, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Bank of, Nikkei, SAXO, SONY, ING, UBS, CHIEF, DAIWA, OF, HSBC, Global, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan, MELBOURNE, BRISBANE, SINGAPORE, TOKYO, U.S, SYDNEY, ASIA, PACIFIC, CHIEF JAPAN, stagflation, OF ASIA, YCC, HONG KONG
Asia stocks mull over Middle East, central bank meetings
  + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The earnings season also continues with Apple, Airbnb, McDonald's, Moderna and Eli Lilly & Co among the many reporting this week. Early on Monday, S&P 500 futures had edged up 0.3% to 4,151, while Nasdaq futures added 0.5%. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1.1% amid speculation the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might tweak its yield curve control (YCC) policy after its two-day policy meeting wraps up on Tuesday. The Bank of England is also expected to stay on hold this week, with markets pricing around a 70% chance it is done tightening altogether. Oil prices eased as worries about demand outweighed risks to Middle East supplies, at least for the moment.
Persons: Issei Kato, BoE, BOJ, Eli Lilly, China Evergrande, Treasuries, Goldman Sachs, reacceleration, Brent, Wayne Cole, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, Apple, Moderna, Nasdaq, HK, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Barclays, Treasury, NatWest, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Capital, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Gaza, payrolls SYDNEY, United States, Britain, McDonald's, Gaza's, Iranian, Asia, Pacific, China, Israel, East
The BOJ sets a target of around 0% for the 10-year yield under YCC. Since then, rising global bond yields and persistent inflation have put the BOJ in a tight spot with the 10-year JGB yield threatening to breach the 1% cap. The 10-year bond yield rose to a fresh decade high of 0.955% on Tuesday. Sources told Reuters last week the BOJ could debate further tweaks to YCC at the Oct. 30-31 meeting to relax its grip on the 10-year yield. The BOJ is widely expected to maintain the 0% target for the 10-year yield and that for short-term rates at -0.1%.
Persons: BOJ, Ueda, Ataru Okumura, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of, Nikkei, Nikko Securities, Reuters, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Bank of Japan, Japan
Oct 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Most talk is it will stay on hold this time, but will discuss laying the groundwork for an eventual shift. Any tweak would see Japanese yields rise and add to the pain being felt in the Treasury market, where 10-year yields nudged up to 4.87% on Monday with scant sign of any safe haven bid. Analysts at NatWest Markets expect $885 billion of marketable borrowing in Q4 and $700 billion in Q1. It is also notable that the borrowing kept climbing even though the economy surprised everyone with its strength.
Persons: Wayne Cole, It's, Eli Lilly, Luis de Guindos, Erik Thedéen, Muralikumar Organizations: Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Ichi, Insurance, Reuters, Treasury, NatWest Markets, Federal Reserve, Apple, Thomson Locations: Wayne, Gaza, China
A Chinese bank employee counts 100-yuan notes and U.S. dollar bills at a bank counter in Nantong in China's eastern Jiangsu province on August 6, 2019. The dollar inched broadly higher in cautious trade on Monday and held near 150 yen as traders looked to a policy decision by the Bank of Japan later in the week, alongside other major central bank meetings and a slew of economic data releases globally. A PMI data deluge, inflation figures in the euro zone and U.S. nonfarm payrolls also add to the mix of the event-packed week. "I think for the FOMC and the Bank of England, they will be pretty low key with them leaving interest rates on hold. The yen was last 0.1% lower at 149.75 per dollar, getting a slight reprieve after having struck a one-year trough of 150.78 per dollar last week.
Persons: nonfarm payrolls, Carol Kong, Israel, Chris Weston, Christian Scherrmann Organizations: Bank of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Aussie, Fed Locations: Nantong, China's, Jiangsu, Bank of Japan, Gaza's, Palestinian, U.S
Euro, Hong Kong dollar, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, British pound and Chinese 100-yuan banknotes are seen in a picture illustration shot January 21, 2016. A PMI data deluge, inflation figures in the euro zone and U.S. nonfarm payrolls also add to the mix of the event-packed week. "I think for the FOMC and the Bank of England, they will be pretty low key with them leaving interest rates on hold. The BOJ meeting will be the most interesting one (given) heightened speculation over a policy tweak at this meeting." The yen was last 0.1% lower at 149.75 per dollar, getting a slight reprieve after having struck a one-year trough of 150.78 per dollar last week.
Persons: Jason Lee, nonfarm payrolls, Carol Kong, Israel, Chris Weston, Christian Scherrmann, Rae Wee, Muralikumar Organizations: Hong, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Aussie, Fed, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, Rights SINGAPORE, Bank of Japan, Gaza's, Palestinian, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Good timing' for Bank of Japan to adjust ultra-easing policy as growth and inflation pick upPatrick Law of Bank of America expects the Yen to strengthen against the dollar when the Bank of Japan decides to completely remove its yield curve control policy, but it is unlikely to fall below 140.
Persons: Patrick Organizations: Bank of Japan, Patrick Law of Bank of America
People walk in front of the bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, April 7, 2023. REUTERS/Androniki Christodoulou/ File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 31 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Will the BOJ spook markets on Halloween and the final trading day of the month by effectively tightening monetary policy further with another tweak to its 'yield curve control' policy? Inflation in Japan has finally taken off, and for the first time in decades, appears to be sticking well above 2%. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Bank of Japan policy decision- China PMIs (October)- Japan unemployment, industrial production, retail sales (September)By Jamie McGeever;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Androniki, Jamie McGeever, Will, Government Bonds, China PMIs Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, Nikkei, Japan, Government, PMI, Bank of Japan, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Taiwan, China
Japan 10-year government bond yields crept closer to a 11-year high on Monday as the Bank of Japan kicks off its two-day monetary policy meeting. Yields for the 10-year JGB climbed 2.29% on Monday to 0.893%, its highest level since it briefly reached 0.895% on Oct. 26. Before that, the last time the yield was at this level was in April 2012. In July, the BOJ effectively broadened the yields permissible on the 10-year JGB by 50 basis points to 1% either side. Read CNBC's preview of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting here.
Persons: — Lim Hui Jie Organizations: Bank of Japan, Bank of Locations: Japan
Passersby walk past an electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 4, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Asian markets on Monday will also give their initial reaction to news over the weekend of an expected U.S.-Sino summit between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping next month. But the MSCI emerging market index and Asia ex-Japan index's falls of around 0.6% last week were notably shallower than the MSCI Work index's 2% slide. China's recent economic and market signals, at least, are brightening a little.
Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Japan index's, Bond, JGBs, Diane Craft Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Tech, Investors, Tuesday's Bank of Japan, Bank of, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Taiwan, Hong Kong, U.S, Australia, Bank of Japan, Germany
Dollar eyes weekly gain as U.S. economy stays robust
  + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar was headed for a weekly gain on Friday, aided by solid U.S. growth figures that bolstered the case for higher-for-longer interest rates, while the yen hovered on the weaker side of 150 per dollar ahead of a key policy meeting next week. That added to bets the Federal Reserve is likely to keep monetary conditions restrictive for longer, driving the dollar broadly higher against a basket of currencies. The U.S. dollar index steadied at 106.57, having hit a three-week high of 106.89 in the previous session, and was on track for a weekly gain of about 0.4%. Sterling edged 0.07% higher to $1.21355, though was not too far from a three-week low of $1.2070 hit on Thursday. The European Central Bank, or ECB, on Thursday left interest rates unchanged as expected, ending an unprecedented streak of 10 consecutive rate hikes.
Persons: Lint, PMIs, Julien Lafargue, Tony Sycamore, we've, we're Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, European Central Bank, ECB, Barclays Private Bank, Analysts, IG, Treasury, Bank of Japan Locations: U.S, Asia, Gaza, Tokyo
Analysis: Yen comeback may be a longer waiting game
  + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
One result is an uneasy calm in spot and options markets for dollar/yen as traders give up waiting for the yen to bounce. Driven weaker by the widening gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates, the yen has lost 13% on the dollar this year and at 150 is near the three-decade low of 151.94 that prompted government intervention a year ago. Market participants say what's changed is the expectation that Japan would be in the driver's seat for the yen this year. Yet together with the risk of intervention, it only seems to have stopped the yen from falling, rather than driving the sort of rally investors had been girding for at the outset of 2023. To be sure, Sachdev said interest in 'carry trades' - borrowing yen to sell for higher-interest paying currencies is waning, while investors have been keen for long exposure to yen assets.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Patrick Law, Masafumi Yamamoto, Yen, Shafali Sachdev, Sachdev, Tom Westbrook, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Federal, Pacific FX, Bank of America, Bank of International Settlements, Bank of, Mizuho Securities, U.S ., Swiss, Reuters, BNP, Wealth Management, Citi, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, U.S
Policymakers meet eight times a year to decide on the bank's monetary policy position, updating its economic outlook at every other meeting. At these meetings, the BOJ policymakers decides on its monetary policy position, which then dictates how the central bank taps the money market. To absorb funds, the Japanese central bank issues and sells bills. Here's how the Bank of Japan conducts its monetary policy. "The objective of the Bank's monetary policy is achieving price stability, which is its mission as stipulated by law.
Persons: Javier Ghersi, it's, , Price, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Getty Images Bank of Japan, Investors, Bank of Japan, Bank of, of, Japan Society of Monetary Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Bank of Japan
Dollar eyes weekly gain as US economy stays robust
  + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
U.S. one dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. That added to bets the Federal Reserve is likely to keep monetary conditions restrictive for longer, driving the dollar broadly higher against a basket of currencies. The U.S. dollar index steadied at 106.57, having hit a three-week high of 106.89 in the previous session, and was on track for a weekly gain of about 0.4%. The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday left interest rates unchanged as expected, ending an unprecedented streak of 10 consecutive rate hikes. The yen last stood at 150.38 per dollar, languishing near the previous session's one-year trough of 150.78.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Lint, PMIs, Julien Lafargue, Tony Sycamore, we've, we're, Rae Wee, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, U.S, European Central Bank, ECB, Barclays Private Bank, Analysts, IG, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, Gaza, Tokyo
Asian shares track US futures higher, bonds hold gains
  + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Overnight, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged as expected, sending the euro briefly to a two-week low. S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% while Nasdaq futures rallied 0.7%, driven by a 5% jump in Amazon shares in after-hours trading. In a statement after the U.S. close, the tech giant predicted higher holiday season sales and a stabilisation in its cloud business. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) bounced 0.6% on Friday after hitting a fresh 11-month low a day ago. Brent crude futures climbed 0.5% to $88.38 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $83.58 a barrel, up 0.4%.
Persons: Aly, Hong, HSI, Nathaniel Casey, Evelyn, Goldman Sachs, Stella Qiu, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Tokyo's Nikkei, Evelyn Partners, 1bp, CME, Brent, West Texas, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, SYDNEY, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, East, Israel, Gaza
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