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☆ If you're considering buying or selling a home, you might want to wait until next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The fight against inflation has led to a surge in mortgage rates. An increase in interest rates led to a run up in mortgage rates, which has slowed home sales and therefore price growth. It all comes down to the fact that the higher mortgage rates rise, the less affordable homeownership is for borrowers. Indeed, homebuying activity is slowing the higher that mortgage rates rise. According to the organization's researchers, if a recession were to materialize "mortgage rates would fall around 30 basis points from the baseline forecast level of 5.2%."

On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 3.9% versus a revised drop of 2.7% in April-June and an expected 3.5% rise. 1/9 Workers work at a construction site, following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Shanghai, China, October 14, 2022. A Reuters poll forecast China's growth to slow to 3.2% in 2022, far below the official target of around 5.5%, marking one of the worst performances in almost half a century. Retail sales grew 2.5%, missing forecasts for a 3.3% increase and easing from August's 5.4% pace, underlining still fragile domestic demand. "On the policy front, the overall policy will remain supportive," said Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International.

Workers work at a construction site, following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Shanghai, China, October 14, 2022. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 3.9% in the third quarter, versus a revised drop of 2.7% in April-June and an expected 3.5% rise. The data was originally scheduled for release on Oct. 18 but was delayed amid the key Communist Party Congress last week. New bank lending in China nearly doubled in September from the previous month and far exceeded expectations, helped by central bank efforts to revive the economy. "On the policy front, the overall policy will remain supportive," said Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International.

President Joe Biden last week doled out $2.8 billion to miners developing new U.S. sources of lithium, nickel, copper and other EV minerals, as well as battery parts manufacturers and recyclers. Those grants followed August's Inflation Reduction Act, which links EV tax credits to minerals extracted domestically or from 20 allies. "People have a misconception about how quickly we can get mines up and running given the U.S. permitting process," said Megan O'Connor, Nth Cycle's CEO. "Hopefully, they'll give us some help and fast track some of the permitting process," said Kent Masters, Albemarle's CEO. The yawning divide between America and China's approaches to funding the EV supply chain is now a top concern for many policymakers and their advisers in the nation's capital.

☆ Russian oil supplies to China up 22% on year, close second to Saudi - data
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Chen Aizhu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The amount, equivalent to 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd), eased from 1.96 million bpd in August and compared to the record high of nearly 2 million bpd in May. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterImports from top supplier Saudi Arabia reached 7.53 million tonnes, or 1.83 million bpd, versus August's 1.99 million bpd and were 5.4% lower than a year earlier. Russian volumes rose nearly 9% to 64.26 million tonnes, a close second. That surpassed the previous record set in August of 3.37 million tonnes. China also received about 795,000 tonnes of U.S. crude oil in September, after zero imports in August.

☆ Goodbye, bidding wars. Home sellers are losing some of the power they've enjoyed for the past 2 years.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A surge in mortgage rates have cause buyers to sit on the sidelines. Whatever affordability buyers have gained through sliding prices, they are losing in mortgage rate hikes. As Americans face mortgage rates that are nearly twice as expensive as they were in 2021, more people are putting their homeownership dreams on pause. And that means sellers are not only losing leverage — they are also losing money. "Resourceful sellers understand that the market is intertwined with rising mortgage rates," Sam Chute, a Redfin listing agent said in a housing report on the decline of bidding wars.

☆ Australia's jobs engine brakes in Sept, supports slower rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SYDNEY, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Australian employment posted a disappointingly small rise in September in a hint that a very tight labour market might finally be loosening, lessening pressure for faster increases in interest rates. The miss on jobs supports the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision this month to slow the pace of rate hikes to quarter-point moves, having already lifted rates by 250 basis points since May. The jobless rate held near 48-year lows at 3.5% in September, while the participation was just off record highs at 66.6%. This is a major reason why markets fully expect another rate rise of 25 basis points in November. The RBA has argued it can afford to go slower than the Fed since wages in Australia are growing at half the pace of those in the United States, even with a very tight labour market.

☆ Canada's inflation beat boosts chances of 75 bps rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Julie Gordon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

OTTAWA, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate edged down but exceeded forecasts in September while underlying price pressures were largely unchanged, data showed on Wednesday, amplifying calls for another hefty rate hike by the central bank next week. Inflation was 6.9%, ahead of forecasts of 6.8% and down from 7.0% in August. All three of the Bank of Canada's core measures of inflation, its preferred yardsticks for underlying inflation, were flat in September, with the average of the three matching August's upwardly revised 5.3%. The bank has hiked rates by 300 bps since March and made clear more increases are coming. But it was lower gasoline prices that edged the annual inflation rate down, while consumers paid 11.4% more for their groceries, the largest gain since August 1981.

☆ Canada's inflation beat boosts chances for 75-bp rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Julie Gordon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Canadian inflation edged down to 6.9% in September, a notch ahead of forecasts of 6.8% and down from 7.0% in August. "So I think it keeps the Bank of Canada on track to deliver another so-called supersized hike." The Bank of Canada is widely expected to raise its policy rate at its next decision on Oct. 26. "I think that the Bank of Canada should hike by 75 (bp) next week," he added. On the month, Canada's consumer price index rose 0.1%, slightly ahead of forecasts that it would remain flat.

☆ Canada's annual inflation rate eases slightly to 6.9% on cheaper gas
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Julie Gordon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

OTTAWA, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate inched down to 6.9% in September, the third consecutive monthly deceleration, as lower prices at the gas pump offset another 41-year high in food costs, Statistics Canada data showed on Wednesday. The headline inflation number was a notch ahead of analyst forecasts of 6.8% but down from 7.0% in August. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 5.4% from a rise of 5.3% in August. It now stands at 3.25%On the month, Canada's consumer price index rose 0.1%, slightly ahead of forecasts that it would remain flat. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3760 to the greenback, or 72.67 U.S. cents.

☆ The US cities suffering most from inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The year-over-year inflation rate is relatively high in the metro area of Phoenix, based on data for 23 metros. Inflation rates are relatively low in the metro areas of San Francisco, New York, and DC. US inflation data out last Thursday showed inflation remains elevated. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also provides inflation data for 23 of the nation's biggest metro areas, and the following chart shows year-over-year inflation rates for those cities. Americans across the nation are being affected by inflation, whether in the metro areas where inflation is above the national rate or not.

Europe has been the major beneficiary of China cutting its LNG imports in 2022, as the gas-starved continent has been able to buy both spot cargoes that China didn't take, as well as some contracted cargoes that China re-sold. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterSuch a move will likely see China's LNG imports rise in coming months, but they are still likely to be below the levels that prevailed last winter. China has in past years increased LNG imports over the winter period by bidding for spot cargoes, with Kpler reporting imports of 7.01 million tonnes in November last year, 8.21 million in December and 7.18 million in January. Even though spot LNG prices in Asia have been dropping in recent weeks, they are still more than 50% above that level, meaning importing spot cargoes means heavy losses. For the early part of the upcoming winter, it may be the case that Europe doesn't buy heavily in the spot LNG market, meaning more cargoes will be available in Asia.

☆ EXCLUSIVE Exxon exits Russia empty-handed with oil project 'unilaterally terminated'
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Sabrina Valle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

BP, TotalEnergies, Equinor, and Shell have all transferred properties to Russian partners or left operations behind. The company said it "safely exited" Russia after the government earlier this month "unilaterally terminated" its interests in the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project, its largest in the country. On Oct. 7 Putin seized Exxon shares in the oil production joint venture and transferred them to a government-controlled company. By July, output at the Sakhalin-1 project fell 10,000 barrels per day (bpd), from 220,000 bpd before Russia invaded Ukraine. About 700 Russia-based employees that kept operations running will be transferred to the new Russia company taking over the asset, Exxon said.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.92% this week, according to Freddie Mac. Rising inflation and hikes from the Fed have helped push mortgage rates up over three percentage points this year. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowToday's refinance ratesMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and have increased significantly so far in 2022. Inflation remains elevated, but has started to slow, which is a good sign for mortgage rates and the broader economy.

☆ Indonesia Sept trade surplus seen at $4.8 bln as exports slow
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Summary Trade data due at 0400 GMT on Monday, Oct. 17JAKARTA, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Indonesia's trade surplus likely remained elevated in September, albeit below the level recorded in the previous month, amid a slowdown in export growth, a Reuters poll showed on Friday. The September trade surplus is seen at $4.84 billion, narrower than the previous month's $5.76 billion, according to the median forecast of 12 economists. Indonesia is a major exporter of coal, palm oil, nickel, tin and other commodities. Analysts have warned moderating commodity prices, at a time when imports are rising due to an improving domestic economy, may reduce its trade surplus in the remainder of 2022. "We saw a correction in CPO (crude palm oil) prices, even though coal prices were stable" last month, said Irman Faiz, an economist with Bank Danamon, who predicted a $4.4 billion September surplus.

The annual U.S. inflation rate was little changed in September, hitting 8.2% year-over-year compared with August's 8.3% reading as the pace of price increases remains at multidecade highs, causing pain for many U.S. households. Inflation remains at the top of Americans' minds going into the last quarter of a year that has seen across-the-board volatility in food, gasoline and energy prices. So the burden of bridling a stubborn inflation rate sits on the doorstep of the Federal Reserve. "There's definitely still a Russia-Ukraine effect keeping food prices elevated," he said. "Food price inflation is going to stay a problem in US for next couple of months," Adams said.

☆ Futures up on higher gold, crude prices; U.S. inflation data awaited
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Oct 13 (Reuters) - Futures for Canada's resource heavy stock index on Thursday ticked higher, tracking gold and crude prices, with investors avoiding big bets ahead of a crucial U.S. inflation data later in the day. December futures on the S&P/TSX index rose 0.3% after five days of losses on the TSX. Gold prices were steady, while crude oil prices enjoyed extended support from the OPEC+ cuts last week, which the International Energy Agency warned may push the global economy into recession. [GOl/]Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterS&P futures rose 0.5% to lead gains among the U.S. stock futures ahead of September consumer prices data due at 08:30 a.m. Canada's stock index (.GSPTSE) closed lower on Wednesday, as U.S. producer price data and minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting bolstered expectations for additional rate hikes.

☆ Futures jittery ahead of U.S. CPI data
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Consumer prices data due at 8:30 am ET will be closely watched for clues on how the central bank will proceed with its monetary policy tightening. The headline CPI is expected to have gained at an annual pace of 8.1% in September, decelerating from August's 8.3% rise, according to a Reuters poll. ET, Dow e-minis were up 86 points, or 0.29%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 9.25 points, or 0.26%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 12 points, or 0.11%. Investors also awaited quarterly earnings reports from BlackRock (BLK.N), Domino's Pizza (DPZ.N), Walgreens Boots Alliance and Delta Air Lines (DAL.N). read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb ChakrabartyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Consumer inflation expected to have run hot in September, boosted by rent
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Stoked by rising rent costs, consumer inflation is expected to have remained hot in September but slightly lower than August's pace. Economists expect the consumer price index rose 0.3% in September, up from 0.1% in August, according to Dow Jones. "The core inflation is going to be higher so it's still an inflation that hasn't peaked yet in many ways. Economists expect that services inflation continued to run hot in September, due to rising wages and labor shortages. "We expect shelter inflation to slow to a 0.4-0.5% monthly pace by year-end and peak at around 7% year-over-year early next year."

☆ Economists think one key inflation measure is headed back to a 40-year high, much to the chagrin of the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Ben Winck | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Economists expect core inflation — which removes food and energy costs — to rebound in September. An increase would make it even harder for the Fed to fight inflation without pulling the US into a recession. Should the projection prove correct, that will place core inflation back at the March peak and the fastest pace since 1981. Core inflation, meanwhile, rose in August to 6.3% from 5.9%, kickstarting the divergence that's expected to continue into the fall. Whether the September inflation data surprises to the upside or shows price growth slowing more than expected, either outcome is unlikely to change the Fed's plans.

☆ Inflation expectations ease, while spending outlook tumbles, Fed consumer survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

That's the lowest level since January and the biggest one-month decline ever in a data series going back to June 2013. Respondents did put a slightly higher number on their outlook for three-year inflation, moving that forecast to 2.9%, up 0.1 percentage point from August. Median five-year expectations moved up to 2.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage point but much closer to the Fed's goal. Consumers see gas prices increasing by half a percentage point, and food to surge by 6.9%, a full percentage point increase from August's survey. Unprecedented levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus also coincided with the inflation surge.

☆ Japan logs August's smallest-ever current account surplus as import prices surge
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Japan's current account surplus shrank to its smallest amount on record for the month of August, Ministry of Finance data showed on Tuesday, with surging prices of energy imports outstripping price rises in exports and draining national wealth. The surplus stood at 58.9 billion yen ($404.45 million), smaller than economists' median forecast of 121.8 billion yen in a Reuters poll. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the account was in a deficit for a second month, at 530.5 billion yen. Continual trade surplus in the past and growing overseas investment means Japan has never recorded a current account deficit on an annual basis. "I think the current account surplus will narrow as trade deficits persist, eroding Japan's purchasing power and making it poorer."

☆ U.S. weekly jobless claims fall; second-quarter GDP unrevised
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 193,000 for the week ended Sept. 24, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The so-called continuing claims data, a proxy for hiring, covered the week that the government surveyed households for August's unemployment rate. Continuing claims fell between the July and August survey periods. The Fed last week raised its median forecast for the unemployment rate this year to 3.8% from its previous projection of 3.7% in June. Gross domestic product fell at an unrevised 0.6% annualized rate last quarter, the government said in its third estimate of GDP.

See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage calculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 30-year fixed mortgage ratesThe current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.29%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-year fixed mortgage ratesThe average 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.44%, an increase from the prior week, according to Freddie Mac data. Adjustable rate mortgages can look very attractive to borrowers when rates are high, because the rates on these mortgages are typically lower than fixed mortgage rates. Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and have increased significantly so far in 2022.

☆ BlackRock says it's time to 'shun most stocks' with markets underestimating the risk of a Fed-induced recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed and other central banks have underestimated the severity of the recession that their rate hikes could trigger, the asset manager said. But Boivin's team said that the Fed's cheerful economic projections overestimate the likelihood of a soft landing. "This soft landing doesn't add up to us," Boivin's team said. The global "rate-hike blitz" suggests that other central bankers share the Fed's optimistic outlook, according to Boivin's team. BlackRock warned that aggressive overtightening could trigger a downturn before inflation has cooled sufficiently, leaving central banks torn between raising and slashing rates.

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