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On Thursday, investors in Asia will assess trade data from Japan and interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of India. Global equities and currencies plunged earlier this week after the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates to their highest levels since 2008, and the U.S. released weaker-than-expected employment numbers. Asia-Pacific markets were mostly down in choppy trading on Thursday after U.S. stock benchmarks fell overnight, while investors assessed trade data from Japan and awaited India's rate decision. "Assuming that the price stability target will be achieved in the second half of fiscal 2025, the Bank should raise the policy interest rate to the level of the neutral interest rate toward that time," the summary read. Japanese technology investor SoftBank Group said in a statement on Wednesday that it would buy back up to 500 billion yen ($3.4 billion) of its shares as part of its efforts to boost shareholder returns.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Lasertec, Korea's Kospi Organizations: Reuters, The Reserve Bank of, Reserve Bank of India, Global, Bank of Japan, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Nikkei, Bank, SoftBank, Semiconductor, Isuzu Motors, China's CSI, Cathay, Hong Kong's, Airbus Locations: The Reserve Bank of India, Asia, Japan, U.S, Pacific, Hong, Cathay Pacific
.VIX YTD mountain Cboe Volatility Index in 2024 That is literally what the VIX measures: expectations for volatility over the next 30 days. Was Monday a 'flash crash'? A "flash crash" is a sudden and severe price drop that lasts for a very short period, usually a few hours. "It appears that the sell-off of August 5th qualified as a flash crash, although it was rather modest by historical standards," he told me. During the 1987 flash crash, Higgins said an investor was trying to orchestrate trades on the phone while he was preparing to go to his relative's funeral.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Alec Young, haven't, Mark Higgins, Higgins Organizations: Bank of Japan, Yen Trust, JPMorgan Chase, Fund, Dow Jones Locations: Japan, backwardation
Why Jay Powell refuses to be bullied by Wall Street
  + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
The whole episode underscored a fundamental tension between the Fed, which is focused on economic stability, and Wall Street, which is focused on profit. The message from Powell and other policymakers is clear: We won’t be strong-armed by Wall Street. The BOJ’s deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, citing volatility in financial markets, said the bank would not raise its policy interest rate as long as markets remain unstable. Powell (formerly in finance, hazel eyes, great ties) appears to have a real opportunity to Volcker it up even more in the coming weeks. That gives Wall Street plenty of time to sit in the corner and deal with its feelings.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Summer, Tim Walz’s, Jerome Hayden Powell, Here’s, Powell, , Powell’s, It’s, Paul Volcker fanboy, Shinichi Uchida, Mohamed El, , Volcker, quieting, Powell isn’t Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Finance, Federal, Stock, CNBC, Wall, Bank of Japan, Bloomberg Locations: New York, FiDi, Powell, Japan
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is eyeing a potential interest rate cut in September. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon thinks those two events aren't as significant as many think. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy .
Persons: Jamie Dimon, , CNBC's Organizations: Federal, JPMorgan, Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Business
Meanwhile, the yen strengthened 0.6% to 146 against the US dollar, after losing nearly 2% on Tuesday and Wednesday combined. But those fears, as well as a further jump in the value of the yen, are still haunting the market. The volatility in the yen, which was at the heart of recent market turmoil, remains elevated, he added. On Monday, the Nikkei plummeted by the most since 1987, sparking a broader global market sell-off. The narrowing of the interest rate differentials, which had enabled the yen carry trade, could push the yen higher, Kuptiskevich added.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, Germany’s DAX, Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, , Stephen Innes, Alex Kuptsikevich, Masamichi Adachi, Innes, Taiwan’s Taiex, Hang Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Nikkei, CAC, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, FxPro, Federal, Fed, UBS, UBS Chief Investment, Kospi, Hang Seng Locations: Hong Kong, Europe, Japan, unwind
Despite being disqualified from the gold medal match just hours after she made Olympic history, Vinesh Phogat is still being hailed by many online for her bravery and resilience. The wrestler from Team India, who on Tuesday became the first woman from her country to make the Olympic finals, will not be participating in the women’s wrestling 50kg gold-medal match due to being "a few grams" over the weight class, according to the Indian Olympic Association. The Indian Olympic Association didn’t elaborate on the matter and requested privacy for Phogat. In a January 2023 letter, the group accused Singh of sexual harassment against several young female wrestlers. Indian wrestler Vinesh Phogat is detained by the police while attempting to march to India's new parliament in New Delhi on May 28, 2023.
Persons: Phogat, USA’s Sarah Hildebrandt, Yui Susaki, Ukraine’s Oksana Livach, Cuba’s Yusneylis Guzman Lopez, Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, Singh, Singh “, , Vinesh Phogat, Arun Thakur, ” Phogat, Brij Bhushan, India’s, Narendra Modi, Modi hasn’t Organizations: Team India, Indian Olympic Association, Wrestling Federation of India, Tokyo, Getty, , , Indian Express Locations: Wednesday’s, Japan, New Delhi, AFP, Phogat,
Stocks are rising after Monday's meltdown as Japan assured it will not hike rates if markets are unstable. Some analysts say BOJ's recent rate hike triggered Monday's sell-off as traders unwind yen carry trades. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Just last week, the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates and struck a hawkish stance that signaled more increases ahead following years of ultra-low and even negative rates. On Wednesday, Shinichi Uchida, a deputy governor at the Bank of Japan, said the central would not hike interest rates when the financial and capital markets are unstable.
Persons: , Shinichi Uchida Organizations: Service, Bank of Japan, Business Locations: Japan
Yen dives as BOJ plays down chance of hikes, soothing markets
  + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A Japanese 10,000 yen and a U.S. 100 dollar banknote juxtaposed against each other in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, June 20, 2016. The yen dropped on Wednesday after an influential Bank of Japan official played down the chances of a near-term rate hike, soothing investors' concerns that a further jump in the Japanese currency could again rock global markets. The yen fell around 2.5% to a session low of 147.94 per dollar following the comments from BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida. "I think it's become increasingly clear that the BOJ hawkish turn last week could be a policy error," said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets. The yen's decline was broad based, with the Mexican peso, New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar - all carry trade candidates - surging against the currency.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, Kazuo Ueda's hawkish, it's, Alvin Tan, inching, Rong Ren Goh Organizations: Bank of Japan, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, U.S, Eastspring Investments, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Tokyo, Japan, Asia
Asia-Pacific markets extended gains on Wednesday, tracking Wall Street benchmarks that snapped a three-day losing streak overnight. It further sold 3.87 trillion yen worth of dollars on May 1, ministry data showed. Customs data showed on Wednesday that China's imports in July grew faster-than-expected, while export growth missed forecasts. Exports in U.S. dollar terms rose by 7% for the month compared to a year ago, missing economists' expectations for a 9.7% increase. Meanwhile, U.S. dollar-denominated imports rose by 7.2%, far more than the economist's forecast of 3.5%.
Persons: Canon, Shinichi Uchida Organizations: Nikkei, Mitsui, SoftBank, Bank of Japan, Bank, Japan's Ministry of Finance, China's CSI, . Locations: Qingdao Port, Shandong province, Qingdao, China, Asia, Pacific
When you hear commentators talking this week about the “yen carry trade” or the “great unwind,” they’re referring to a popular trading strategy that is, suddenly, blowing up in investors’ faces. The carry trade, explainedPut simply: A carry trade is when you borrow money in a place where interest rates are low and use it to invest elsewhere in assets that generate some kind of return. “That is bonkers.”The yen carry trade proved especially popular in the last four years, because Japan was the only major economy in the world offering essentially free money. The carry trade relies on borrowing, which means it’s a leveraged position. “The carry trade unwind… is somewhere between 50%-60% complete.”In other words: Buckle up, and don’t panic.
Persons: CNN Business ’, , John Authers, , it’s, John Sedunov, Kit Juckes, ” Sedunov, Arindam Sandilya, JPMorgan Chase, Buckle Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wall, ” Bloomberg, Treasury, Villanova School of Business, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale, JPMorgan, Bloomberg Locations: New York, Japan, Europe
SoftBank Group booked a 1.9 billion yen ($12.9 million) investment gain on its Vision Fund tech investment arm in the company's fiscal first quarter ended in June, swinging back into the black. However, the Vision Fund segment as a whole posted a 204.3 billion yen loss, after being in profit in the same quarter last year. The Japanese giant also announced it would buy back up to 6.8% of shares available in the company amounting to up to 500 billion yen ($3.4 billion). In the year ago quarter, SoftBank posted 159.77 billion yen gain in its Vision Fund. In the March quarter, SoftBank posted a loss of 57.53 billion yen in its flagship tech investment arm.
Persons: ByteDance —, SoftBank Organizations: SoftBank, Corp, Vision Fund, Vision, Bank of Japan Locations: Tokyo, Japan
Hong Kong CNN —Asian markets made solid gains Wednesday, with Japanese shares reversing early losses after a central bank official played down the prospect of an immediate hike in interest rates. The gains follow days of volatility, which saw the Nikkei suffering Monday its biggest daily loss since 1987. “We won’t raise interest rates when financial markets are unstable,” he was quoted as saying in a speech to executives in the northern Japanese city of Hakodate. The central bank has hiked interest rates twice this year in a bid to contain inflation. Decades of extremely low interest rates in Japan had seen many investors borrow cash cheaply there before converting it to other currencies to invest in higher-yielding assets.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Kospi, Hong, Taiex, Uchida, , Olesya Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, US, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: Hong Kong, Asia, South, Hakodate, , Japan, Europe, London
Japan stocks rebounded sharply on Tuesday after the Nikkei 225 and the Topix dropped over 12% in the previous session. The Bank of Japan raising rates to their highest level since 2008 on July 30 caused the yen to strengthen to a seven-month high, pressurizing stocks. Markets globally were also spooked by fears of a U.S. recession stoked by a weaker-than-expected jobs report. Real wages in Japan also grew 1.1% in June compared with a year ago, the first time that wages have risen in 26 months. Strong wage growth offers more room for the Bank of Japan to tighten its monetary policy.
Persons: Topix, Korea’s Kospi, Hong, Australia’s, Brent, Dow Organizations: Nikkei, Bank of, Softbank Group Corp, U.S ., South Korean, Samsung Electronics, chipmaker SK Hynix, China’s CSI, . West Texas, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: Japan, Asia, Pacific, Bank of Japan, U.S
To be sure, the carnage on Wall Street and in equities markets around the world was real. But Monday’s panic was the Wall Street equivalent of a tantrum from a kid who just got told they can’t have ice cream for dinner. But don’t let the stock market drama fool you: The US economy is still in good shape, despite some turbulence. “And I’m not too worried about Wall Street becoming poor.”Stocks looked to bounce back Tuesday. Wall Street worked itself into a lather when ChatGPT came out two years ago.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Stocks, Dow, Wall, don’t, Rana Foroohar, That’s, it’s, Goldman Sachs, , Jan Hatzius, ” Goldman, There’s, Beryl, , Beryl didn’t, Aaron Sojourner, ’ ”, ChatGPT, Rob Haworth, ” Haworth Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, CNN, Nikkei, of Labor Statistics, Coast, BLS, WE Upjohn, Employment Research, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Federal, Markets, Big Tech, Nvidia, Microsoft, Wall, Bank of Japan, US Bank Locations: New York, Japan
Read previewMarkets are rebounding after Monday's meltdown, injecting challenges into central banks' interest-rate decisions. The market volatility is due to a mix of factors including poor earnings results from several tech giants and a weak July payroll report. AdvertisementSome analysts are speculating that the BOJ rate cut was because it was under political pressure to shore up the floundering yen, Bloomberg reported on Monday. Related storiesGoing forward, the BOJ could have a harder time with the timing of its rate hike decisions. Talks of an emergency rate cutThe market selloff has also made the Fed's rate hike timing harder.
Persons: , Kospi, Taiwan's Taiex, Kyle Rodda, It's, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's, Capital.com's Rodda Organizations: Service, Business, Bank of Japan, US Federal Reserve, , Bloomberg, Nikkei, Japan's, of Finance, Financial Services Agency Locations: Japan, Asia
The unwinding of the carry trade that's battered stocks in recent days isn't done, JPMorgan says. It says that trade is probably only half over, as Japan looks poised to continue raising rates. AdvertisementThe "carry trade" unwind that helped spark the bloodbath in US stocks over the past few days likely isn't close to over, a JPMorgan strategist says. Market commentators say that's been partly stoked by a surprise 15-basis-point interest-rate hike in Japan, which triggered some investors to unwind a trade that's become popular in recent years. In this trade, investors borrow cheap yen and deploy the cash into higher-yielding assets elsewhere, like US stocks.
Persons: , Arindam Sandilya, that's, Sandilya Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, FX, Bloomberg, Bank of Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan
A carry trade involves an investor borrowing a currency with low interest rates and reinvesting it in higher-yielding assets elsewhere — taking advantage of that differential to make a financial gain. Investors piled into yen carry trades in recent years, attracted by Japan's low volatility and ultra-loose monetary policy. Global stock markets meanwhile plunged as "safe haven" assets such as the Swiss franc and U.S. Treasurys were bolstered. "You can't unwind the biggest carry trade the world has ever seen without breaking a few heads," Kit Juckes, chief foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale, said in a Monday note. Trichet told CNBC Tuesday: "The correction can be seen as a healthy correction, in some respects.
Persons: it's, Jean, Claude Trichet, CNBC's, Treasurys, Kit Juckes, Trichet Organizations: European Central Bank, ., Bank of Japan, U.S, Global, Swiss, Societe Generale, CNBC, Federal Locations: France's, U.S, Europe, United States
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWorst of Japan market selloff is 'probably behind us,' strategist saysMasahiko Loo, senior fixed income strategist at State Street Global Advisors, says the market "seems to be stabilizing."
Persons: Masahiko Loo Organizations: Japan, State Street Global Advisors
In its simplest form, the yen carry trade has investors borrowing cheap yen to invest in higher yielding assets, often currencies. For example, because there is not a central source to track currency trades, we have no idea how big the yen carry trade is. The yen is rising, and that is making the yen carry trade less profitable. If the yen goes from 155 to 145, which is where it traded Monday, it will take $68,965 to repay that 10 million yen (10 million yen divided by 145 = $68,965). One positive sign: the ETF to watch is the Invesco Japanese Yen ETF (FXY), which tracks the price of the Japanese yen, had volume six times normal yesterday.
Persons: That's, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Nikkei, Street Journal, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, U.S, U.S ., Yen ETF Locations: U.S, Japan
Squeeze on carry trades leave currency markets on edge
  + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The Japanese yen and U.S. dollar on display in Yichang, Hubei province, Nov 13, 2023. The yen was 1% lower on Tuesday at 145.78 per dollar in early trading, after rising for five straight sessions and touching a seven-month high of 141.675 on Monday. "Sell-offs that manifest themselves through wild swings in the currency markets are sharp and swift, but usually very short lived," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. "Markets are clearly nervous about the divergent paths central banks are taking, leading to lots of volatility." The dollar index , which measures the U.S. unit versus six rivals, was flat at 102.87 in early trading after touching a seven-month low of 102.15 on Monday.
Persons: Jamie Cox, James Athey, undervaluation Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Federal, Harris Financial, Traders, Bank of Japan, Marlborough Investment Management Locations: Yichang, Hubei province, recessionary, Japan, Switzerland, Tokyo
As Japanese stocks plummet, confirming a bear market, there are opportunities in small-cap and domestic-focused companies, according to fund manager Richard Kaye. 'Yen is just getting normal' Kaye believes the Yen's appreciation is a return to normalcy rather than an anomaly. "If you look even on Friday in all the bloodbath, domestic names, small cap names [were] actually outperforming," he noted. Indeed, the MSCI Japan Small Cap index has fallen 8.6% since July 11, outperforming the 14.4% decline in the MSCI Japan index on a local currency basis. In U.S. dollar terms, the losses, while proportionate, are smaller, with ETFs such as the iShares MSCI Japan Small-Cap ETF falling by 2.1% compared to the iShares MSCI Japan ETF, which is down 8.9% over the same period.
Persons: Richard Kaye, Kaye, Yen, CNBC's, They've, Warren, sayonara, I've Organizations: Growth, Toyota, Sony, U.S ., Japan ETF, Kobe, U.S, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo Locations: Comgest, Japan
The day's rout was sparked by a massive sell-off in Japanese stocks. The Nikkei fell 12.4%, its worst day since the 1987 "Black Monday" crash rattled investors around the world. Spencer Platt / Getty ImagesThe Japanese drawdown, in turn, was partly in response to the worse-than-expected jobs report published Friday that showed U.S. unemployment rising to 4.3% and just 114,000 jobs added in July. As soon as that report was published, stocks started erasing some of their earlier losses, while bond purchases, which had surged as investors sought safe-haven assets, faded. It’s a much easier decision to say I want to take my chips and go home here.”
Persons: Stocks, Spencer Platt, Apple, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, , Michael Farr, Farr Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Nikkei, New York Stock Exchange, Getty, Federal, Institute for Supply Management, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Intel, Microsoft, Buffett, Miller & Washington Locations: New York City, U.S, Berkshire
Stifel Financial's Barry Bannister thinks the S & P 500 will see a steep pullback over the next couple of months. Bannister said Stifel's year-end target of 5,000 for the S & P 500 "seems appropriate right now" given the July jobs data and delayed Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. In early June, Bannister said the S & P 500 could drop to approximately 4,750 before the end of the third quarter of this year. The S & P 500 ended last week at 5,346.56. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 this year.
Persons: Stifel Financial's Barry Bannister, Bannister, Stifel's, Stifel, we've Organizations: CNBC, Traders
U.S. stocks fell sharply Monday as part of a global selloff fueled by mounting recession fears among investors. Further roiling global markets is unusual currency trading out of Japan. The S&P 500 — a measure of the broad U.S. stock market — was down about 2% in early trading, putting it 7.5% below the index's all-time high close on July 16. In fact, you'd be wise to ignore short-term ups and downs in the stock market altogether — at least according to Buffett. "If you're worried about corrections, you shouldn't own stocks," Buffett said in a 2015 interview with The Street.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, you'd, Buffett Organizations: Federal Reserve, Berkshire, Apple, Treasury Locations: Japan, Omaha
Monday's global stock market sell-off led to calls for the Federal Reserve to step in , but that could prove to be even more trouble for investors. This sell-off is not being driven banking crisis, and an emergency rate cut by the Fed may hurt more than it helps, said Lawrence McDonald, a bestselling author and market risk expert. "If they do that, they weaken the dollar, they actually strengthen the yen, and this whole carry trade gets worse," McDonald said. The " carry trade " mentioned by McDonald and others as a key reason for this sell-off is related to interest rates in Japan. Central banks in the United States and other developed markets have hiked interest rates aggressively in the post-pandemic period to fight inflation.
Persons: Lawrence McDonald, McDonald, Lehman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, U.S, Fed, Lehman Brothers Locations: Japan, Central, United States
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