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☆ US stocks fall and bond yields jump ahead of speech from Fed chief Powell
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US stocks fell Monday as bond yields continued to spike on expectations for more hawkish Fed moves. That followed Friday's blockbuster jobs report that raised fears over a tight labor market. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak Tuesday at the Economic Club of Washington. Meanwhile, iunvestors will be watching for remarks on Tuesday from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who will speak at the Economic Club of Washington. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. market close on Monday:Here's what else is happening today:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:

Among these are equities’ positive January performance, a "golden cross" chart pattern on the S&P 500 and more stocks making new highs rather than new lows. Such signals are far from the only indicators market participants use to make investment decisions, and they are not foolproof. JANUARY JUMPThe S&P 500 rose 6.2% in January, driven in part by hopes that the Fed will be able to contain surging inflation without badly damaging the economy. GOLDEN CROSSMeanwhile, chart watchers noted that the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average rose above its 200-day moving average on Thursday, a pattern known as a golden cross. However, when a golden cross has appeared as the 200-day moving average is declining - as it is now - the average 12-month return for the S&P 500 jumps to 16.8%.

☆ The former head of a $20 billion portfolio warns stocks will fall at least another 20% as investors become complacent about a recession and the Fed vows to keep rates elevated
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A hawkish Fed, as a result, will push the economy into recession, he argues. "That's not the Fed cutting to three percent, Adam, it's the Fed cutting to 2% or 1%." He cited the S&P 500 falling 20% from late-2000 to mid-2002 even as the Fed cut rates from 6.5% to 1.75% as precedent. Many Wall Street banks — including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, and UBS — see a recession ahead for the US economy. The path of inflation will influence the path the US economy takes this year.

Wall Street's major indexes had lost ground immediately after the Fed announced its rate hike decision. After the press conference, money markets were betting on a terminal rate of 4.892% in June compared with bets for 4.92% just before the Fed's statement. U.S. futures were still pricing in rate cuts this year with the fed funds rate seen at 4.403% by the end of December, the same as before the meeting. The S&P 500 posted 24 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 136 new highs and 23 new lows. About 13.7 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 11.5 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.

The Fed is widely seen as raising its target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point in its first policy meeting of the year, after rapid increases in 2022 to tame decades-high inflation. That's the Fed's issue as they finish up their two-day policy meeting today," Turnquist added. All of the 11 major sectors on the S&P 500 were down, with technology shares (.SPLRCT) falling the least. Seventy percent of the 200 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported fourth-quarter earnings have topped Wall Street expectations. Analysts now see earnings of S&P 500 firms declining 2.4% for the quarter, per Refinitiv estimates.

☆ Analysis: Hawkish Fed could hobble volatility funds’ stock buying spree
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500’s (.SPX) 6.2% surge in January has been accompanied by a drop in measures of volatility across the board. The drop in market gyrations has triggered a buy-signal for certain computer-driven strategies including volatility control funds, risk parity funds and Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). Volatility control funds have raised their equity allocation to a nine-month high of 57.7%, strategists at Deutsche Bank wrote on Friday. Grinacoff, of BNP Paribas, estimates volatility control funds have assets of about $275 billion, while CTAs, not all of which have a volatility control strategy, as a group have $800 billion allocated across strategies. "Market volatility measured by VIX remains stuck above the 18 level, which is its long-term average.

☆ Premarket stocks: Is this the beginning of the end for Big Oil's windfall?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Brutally high oil and gas prices were the talk of the town and one of the largest contributing factors to sky-high inflation. That was bad news for drivers, but ended up being great for the energy industry as oil prices and energy stocks are closely interlinked. As markets fell under the pressures of economic uncertainty, geopolitical chaos, elevated inflation and a hawkish Fed, the energy sector thrived. The S&P ended 2022 down nearly 20%, while the energy sector grew by about 60%. But analysts say US oil companies can’t keep winning for much longer.

☆ Gold little changed ahead of U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Gold prices were little changed on Friday as traders awaited U.S. inflation data, due later in the day, to gauge the Federal Reserve's stance on further interest rate hikes. Spot gold was flat at $1,927.99 per ounce as of 0234 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were off 0.1% at $1,928.30. Investors are now awaiting U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, at 1330 GMT for cues on the central bank's path forward. The GDP data points to a resilient U.S. economy but there were some signs of challenges to the economy, which kindled some hopes of a less aggressive Fed, Yeap said. Lower interest rates tend to be beneficial for bullion as it lowers the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

☆ Gold slips as dollar firms ahead of U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,923.33 per ounce, as of 0648 GMT, shedding 0.2% so far in the week. Gold is seeing a pull-back as the dollar is on the higher side and the U.S. GDP data is also slightly pressuring prices, said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities, Mumbai. Data on Thursday showed the U.S. economy grew at a faster pace in the December quarter than economists had expected, prompting bets the Fed would keep rates higher for longer. Investors are now awaiting U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, at 1330 GMT for cues on the central bank's path forward. A downside surprise in the data may point towards a less-hawkish Fed, which could drive gold prices higher in the longer run, said IG Market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.

TOKYO/SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices inched higher on Wednesday as optimism for a demand recovery in China and expectations that major producers will maintain current output policy offset global recession worries. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $80.20, after a 1.8% drop on Tuesday. An OPEC+ panel is likely to endorse the producer group's current oil output policy when it meets next week, five OPEC+ sources said on Tuesday, as hopes for higher Chinese demand are balanced by worries over inflation and the global economy. OPEC+ in October decided to trim output by 2 million barrels per day from November through 2023 on a weaker economic outlook. However, gains in oil prices were capped by a bigger-than-expected build in U.S. oil inventories that was reported after the market settled on Tuesday.

TOKYO/SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Crude oil edged up on Wednesday as optimism for demand recovery in China and a likely unchanged output cut decision by major oil producers offset global recession worries. Brent crude rose 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $86.35 per barrel by 0501 GMT after falling 2.3% in the prior session. An OPEC+ panel is likely to endorse the producer group's current oil output policy when it meets next week, five OPEC+ sources said on Tuesday, as the hopes for higher Chinese demand are balanced by worries over inflation and the global economy. OPEC+ in October decided to trim output by 2 million barrels per day from November through 2023 on a weaker economic outlook. However, gains in oil prices were capped by a bigger-than-expected build in U.S. oil inventories that was reported after the market settled on Tuesday.

☆ China's recovery may mean the Fed will have to hike rates longer
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

SHANGHAI, CHINA - Tourists pose for a photo at the Shanghai Disney Resort as the resort kicked off a month of festivities from January 13 to February 10 to celebrate the upcoming Chinese New Year. As the end of China's stringent Covid restrictions quickens the country's economic recovery, concerns about pent-up Chinese demand — and the inflation that may follow — could mean bad news for the U.S. Federal Reserve. "In our view ... a stronger China increases the chances of a stubbornly hawkish Fed," Tavis McCourt, institutional equity strategist at Raymond James, said in his 2023 Outlook. With activity expected to pick up from China, demand for a variety of commodities will drive , McCourt said. "Demand is going to come back really quickly."

☆ Internet analysts are focusing on one big stock as their favorite 2023 comeback story
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

And Facebook parent Meta Platforms could be the next battered stock to make a recovery, according to analysts on Wall Street. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite tumbled a whopping 33% , with big names like Tesla , Meta and semiconductor stocks among the worst performers. META 1Y mountain Meta Platforms shares tumbled more than 64% in 2022 But tech stocks aren't out of the woods just yet. Wolfe Research also views Meta Platforms as a stock to buy, especially heading into fourth-quarter earnings. Any information or commentary that rationalizes that investment case could push the stock up, according to Wells Fargo analyst Brian Fitzgerald.

☆ Miners, energy firms drag FTSE 100 lower; Dr Martens hits record low
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies FTSE 100 sheds 0.6%, FTSE 250 off 1.0%Deliveroo achieves breakeven in second halfBoohoo's Christmas revenue drops 11%Dr Martens sinks to FTSE 250 bottom on annual profit warningJan 19 (Reuters) - UK's commodity-heavy FTSE 100 fell on Thursday, with energy firms and material stocks dragging the benchmark index lower, while shares of bootmaker Dr Martens slumped to a record low after its annual profit warning. The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) slid 0.6%, while the domestically-oriented FTSE 250 (.FTMC) shed 1.0%. Energy heavyweights Shell (SHEL.L) and BP (BP.L) fell below 1.7%, while industrial miners (.FTNMX551020) shed 1.8% as crude and copper prices declined after disappointing U.S. economic data and on worries about a hawkish Federal Reserve. Dr Martens (DOCS.L) sank 23.6%, after it warned of a lower annual profit and revenue due to operational issues at its new U.S. distribution centre. Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'Souza and Shailesh KuberOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Gold edges higher as investors weigh Fed slowdown chances
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,906.01 per ounce, as of 0252 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,906.00. Few Fed officials signalled on Wednesday that they would push on with more interest rate hikes, while Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said they supported a slower pace of tightening. Lower interest rates tend to boost bullion's appeal as they decrease the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Spot silver lost 0.2% to $23.38 per ounce, platinum was flat at $1,038.38, and palladium fell 0.1% to $1,716.13.

Before the market opened, U.S. economic data showed retail sales and producer prices declined more than expected in December, while production at U.S. factories fell more than expected and November output was weaker than thought. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 613.89 points, or 1.81%, to 33,296.96 and the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 62.11 points, or 1.56%, to 3,928.86. Today's economic data served as a trigger to initiate a profit taking spell and the groups with most profits to take have been the ones that have done best last year," said Stovall. Earlier in the day, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stressed on the need to raise rates beyond 5% to bring inflation to heel. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 78 new highs and 20 new lows.

Markets reacted positively to data, which showed retail sales and producer prices declined more than expected in December. However, the gains were short-lived as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stressed on the need to raise rates beyond 5% to bring inflation to heel. U.S. stock markets have started 2023 on a strong footing on hopes that a moderation in inflationary pressures could give the Fed cover to dial down the size of its interest rate hikes. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 1.23-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.53-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded nine new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 63 new highs and 12 new lows.

☆ 'The market is built on a bedrock of total complacency': A former top TD Ameritrade technical analyst says stocks will fall another 20% this year as investors begin to realize a Fed pivot isn't in the
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

He also thinks earnings expectations are too high and will come down. This hawkish policy will eventually lead to a recession this year, Bierman said, a view that is shared by many on Wall Street. "The market has not priced in earnings misses, the market has priced in earnings beats," he said. Bierman's views in contextBierman's recession call has become a somewhat consensus view on Wall Street. RIA AdvisorsThis translates to lackluster expectations for stocks among Wall Street strategists.

The euro edged up 0.01% against the greenback to $1.0733 at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT), just below its seven-month high of $1.07605 hit Monday. Investors now expect rates to peak just under 5% by June, before starting to come down later in the year. The pause in the dollar's decline comes as traders ready themselves for U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Thursday. The China-sensitive Australian dollar spiked at a more than four-month peak of $0.6950 in the previous session. The offshore yuan last traded at 6.7878 per dollar, after hitting its strongest in five months of 6.7590 earlier in the session.

☆ Asia shares dip on hawkish Fed remarks; recession risk weighs on commodities, oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Selena Li | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.17%. "The main theme overnight was cautiousness in the equity space as stocks pared gains after hawkish comments from two Fed officials. read moreChina stocks on Tuesday snapped a six-session winning streak, while Hong Kong shares jumped to a six-month high. However, any optimism may be short-lived, said Trinh Nguyen, emerging Asia economist at Natixis in Hong Kong. "I think what would temper a lot of this optimism coming up is really the reality of this opening up.

☆ Asia shares dip on hawkish Fed remarks; commods rise on China reopening
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Selena Li | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The main theme overnight was cautiousness in the equity space as stocks pared gains after hawkish comments from two Fed officials. The dollar index fell 0.068%. read moreChina's reopening buoyed sentiment with its stocks rising for a sixth consecutive session on Monday, while Hong Kong shares jumped to a six-month high. However, any optimism may be short-lived, said Trinh Nguyen, emerging Asia economist at Natixis in Hong Kong. Even in Hong Kong, although it is officially open, the visa issuance has been rather slow," Nguyen said.

☆ Most major Gulf stock markets fall on hawkish Fed, Egypt extends rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Shamsuddin Mohd | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index (.TASI) closed flat, as losses in energy and financial shares were capped by gains in real estate stocks. In Abu Dhabi, the benchmark index (.FTFADGI) declined 0.3%, as the country's largest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB.AD) eased 0.6% while fertiliser maker Fertiglobe (FERTIGLOBE.AD) tumbled 2.4%. Alpha Dhabi (ALPHADHABI.AD) and Abu Dhabi state fund Mubadala Investment plan to deploy up to 9 billion dirhams ($2.45 billion) in credit markets through a new joint venture, the companies said. Elsewhere, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) said on Thursday it would allocate $15 billion to decarbonisation projects by 2030. The benchmark stock index in Qatar (.QSI) jumped 2.8% to close the week with a gain of 4.3%.

☆ Hawkish Fed rhetoric fails to lift dollar; Aussie jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Yet, that failed to give a boost to the U.S. currency, which slid 1.4% against the Canadian dollar overnight. Sterling was last steady at $1.2062, after rising 0.76% against the dollar in the previous session, while the euro edged 0.19% higher to $1.0624, following a more than 0.5% overnight gain. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.14% to 104.06, after slipping 0.5% on Wednesday. The Aussie was last steady at $0.6835, while the kiwi rose 0.11% to $0.6298, after gaining 0.7% in the previous session. "The Aussie dollar has obviously benefitted from the coal story," said NAB's Attrill, adding that most other commodity currencies were supported.

☆ Apple gets its price target slashed by nearly 13% at Wedbush, but it says the tech giant's demand story still looks more resilient than Wall Street believes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Apple's price target was cut by more than 12% to $175 at Wedbush Securities on Wednesday. Demand headwinds are creeping into Apple's growth story but the overall picture is more resilient than Wall Street is seeing, the firm said. It cut its price target on Apple by 12% to $175 from $200 and held onto its outperform rating. Meanwhile, Apple's underlying demand story still has more than 200 million iPhone units that haven't been upgraded in about four years. The new $175 price target reflects a more base-case valuation in an uncertain environment with some demand headwinds starting to creep into Apple's growth story, said Ives.

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