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☆ There's a massive disconnect between markets and the Fed - and Jerome Powell's messaging could fall upon deaf ears
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Let's break down what to know ahead of the Federal Reserve's widely expected interest rate hike today. Today's rate hike decision probably won't surprise anyone, as markets have long priced in a 25-basis-point move for the February and March meetings. Goldman said he'll be watching for three things in Powell's speech:Powell will talk tough: "He's going to push back on financial markets. In any case, according to Reinking, unless Powell musters up some serious aggression, any messaging will ultimately fall upon deaf ears. What will your investment strategy look like following another interest rate hike from the Fed?

☆ January Barometer looks like it will be positive, giving bulls a psychological boost
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The so-called January Barometer starts 2023 positive with the S & P 500 up 4.6% to start the final trading day of the month. As for the S & P 500 , bulls want to keep the momentum going. To maintain that, the S & P has to stay well above the 4,000 range. Several companies (UPS, Exxon Mobil, Whirlpool) reported revenues that were lower than expectations. 2023 S & P earnings estimates: (year over year) Q1: down 1.7% Q2: down 2.2% Q3: up 3.8% Q4: up 10.1% Source: Refinitiv Want a good example?

☆ If January is the barometer it historically has been, stocks could see a very strong year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

He said this year has even more reasons to be higher, since other market performance indicators are also positive. For instance, stocks were higher in the Santa rally period in the final five trading days of December and the first two of January. "If you add the third level, with the market positive in January, the market was up a shade more than 29% and was up 100% of the time." spThe average annual S&P 500 gain for any year is about 9%, but Stovall said when the prior year is negative there's historically a higher bounce and the rally averages 14%. "If you add the third level, with the market positive in January, the market was up a shade more than 29% and was up 100% of the time."

☆ Stocks face their biggest test of the year this week as early-year gains stir excitement
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Earnings : More than 20% of the S & P 500 will report this week; by next Friday, 50% of the S & P will have reported. Craig Johnson at PiperSandler noted that 66% of all S & P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving averages. It's not just the big-cap S & P 500 that is advancing: So are small-caps. The S & P High-Beta ETF is up 16% this month, at its highest levels since April of 2022. If that holds, it's the first positive January for the S & P 500 since 2019, when it was up 7.9%.

☆ Investors bet the Fed doom loop they've been trapped in will end in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Next week is Groundhog Day, not to mention the 30 th anniversary of the theatrical release of "Groundhog Day." The ensuing market retreat culminated in the October low at more than a 25% decline from the S & P's record high. Inflation is decidedly in retreat, fourth-quarter GDP was slow-ish but solidly positive, Fed officials did nothing to push back against market expectations for a quarter-point bump in rates next week. But none of the interim S & P 500 rallies in that period made it as far above the 200-day moving average as the index currently is. Yet even with obligatory macro scares and market switchbacks along the way, it doesn't mean investors necessarily remain stuck in the same old doom loop.

☆ Microsoft, Tesla stock moves hint at positive signs for the market, chart analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The S & P 500 ended Thursday at 4,060.43. A key test for the S & P 500 The S & P 500 pushed above its 200-day moving average last Friday. Redler, who follows short-term technicals, said it is important for the S & P 500 to hold between 3,970 and 3,990. She said the S & P 500 is showing signs of being overbought short term, though there continues to be short-term upside momentum. We need to see stocks like Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, we need to see these stocks going from downtrend to uptrend.

☆ The market's technical picture is getting active traders very excited
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P closed at a new high for the year Thursday, up 5.75% for the year. Consider: The S & P is breaking a long-term downtrend (lower lows and lower highs) that goes back to the historic high on January 4, 2022. The percentage of stocks in the S & P 500 trading above their 200-day moving average is expanding. The rally is broad-based, with both value and growth stocks in the S & P 500 up almost equally (6.2% and 5.4%, respectively). "You have to get through the 4,100 level, you have to stop the routine of lower highs and lower lows," one trader told me.

☆ S&P 500 tries to break bear market downtrend, but earnings remain lackluster
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The S & P 500 hovers at the downtrend line everyone's watching after back-to-back 1%+ gains. The S & P 500 popping above the famous trend line would be a positive but in itself not a game changer. S & P 500 as a whole at 17x next 12 months' consensus — not cheap. Slicing away the five largest S & P 500 names or using the equal-weight S & P renders the P/E nearer to 15x. Worth recalling the S & P had a 25%+ drawdown last year when earnings were still hitting record highs in aggregate, so softness in Q4 not entirely a shock to the tape.

☆ Earnings results are dismal, but the market is still rallying. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

S & P 500 earnings estimates 2022 Q4: down 3.0% 2023 Q1: flat 2023 Q2: down 1.3% 2023 Q3: up 4.3% 2023 Q4: up 10.5% Source: Refinitiv Not great news on the earnings front! Because market sentiment was so negative ending 2022, a lot of investors are still not back in and are positioned "light." That's why all the earnings growth is in the second half of the year. The bet is that the first half of the year is flat on earnings, and the second half improves. The sales growth in January in China reinforces the Group's expectation to aim for a record year in 2023."

☆ S&P 500 bumps up against bear-market trend line that has thwarted it in the past
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Market confidence that the Fed is just about done - reinforced by the statistical trappings of a recession in waiting – is combining with an overall decent level of economic activity and companies trying to defend profit margins. Bond yields continue to retrace higher after a ferocious Treasury rally in recent months, which along with firmer oil and copper prices imply the global-growth tone is seen as steadier. A clear trend this year is the sharp outperformance of non-US stocks. Breadth is strong again, not quite a blast-off 90% upside day, but continuing a good run for the majority of stocks. VIX under 20, benign but hard to see it falling too much in the nine days before the Fed decision but we'll see.

☆ U.S. dollar advances vs major currencies as risk appetite fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The earlier sell-off in the dollar came after the Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates. In afternoon trading, the U.S. currency rose against the commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars, which sensitive to risk appetite. The Australian dollar fell 0.7% to US$0.6936, after hitting its highest since August last year. In Japan, the BOJ kept intact its yield curve control (YCC) targets, set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year yield, by a unanimous vote. The dollar rose as much as 2.7% to 131.58 yen before gains were pared.

☆ Japanese yen tumbles, bonds rally after BOJ keeps policy ultra easy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The bank, however, maintained ultra-low interest rates, including its 0.5% cap for the 10-year bond yield. The dollar also gained 2.5% against the Japanese yen to 131.4 yen, in its biggest percentage daily rise since March 2020. In a Reuters poll, 97% of economists expected the BOJ to maintain its ultra-easy policy at the meeting. A survey of global fund managers by BofA Securities out on Tuesday showed that expectations of further appreciation in the Japanese yen in January were the highest in 16 years. The dollar index , which measures the safe-haven dollar against six peers, rose 0.4% at 102.84.

☆ Trader Talk: More signs the market is slowly advancing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

I mentioned Tuesday that stocks were not in a bull market, but were heading in that direction. The most important indicator is broadening participation: more stocks advancing than declining. That, not surprisingly, is also when the S & P 500 put in its bear market bottom, on October 12th, at 3,577. The S & P 500 Equal Weight Index (RSP), an equal weighted-basket of the 500 stocks in the S & P 500, is up nearly 17% since then, while the S & P 500 is up only 11%. In an equal-weighted world, Apple and Microsoft are just another two stocks, instead of the more than 11% of the market cap-weighted S & P 500.

☆ Wall Street veteran whose fund returned 160% in 2022's bear market shares his trading 'bible'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Last year's bear market left many investors deep in the red, but hedge fund manager Neal Berger bucked the trend. 'My bible is the price action' That's why the veteran fund manager is sticking to his tried-and-proven playbook. "As a trader, my bible is the price action. I'm a student of price action and I'm going to be trading the market in accordance with the longer-term trends," he said. He noted that the one-year trend of all asset prices, such as stocks, bonds and crypto, is pointing downward.

☆ Yen tests seven-month high ahead of BOJ policy decision; dollar wobbles
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 16 (Reuters) - The Japanese yen held near an over seven-month peak on Monday, as traders, in the lead up to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision this week, ramped up bets that the central bank could make further tweaks to its yield control policy. The yen was last 0.1% lower at 128.01 per dollar, having surged to 127.46 per dollar on Friday, its highest since May last year. Markets have been pressing for the BOJ to shift away from its ultra-easy monetary policy, which on Friday caused the yield on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bonds to breach the central bank's new ceiling. With the BOJ due to announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, expectations are for further tweaks to its yield control policy or a full abandonment of it. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.13% to 102.13, languishing near Friday's seven-month low of 101.97.

☆ The bold bullish case to be made for U.S. stocks — one that not many are voicing just yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-14 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

There's a bullish case on stocks that's not gained much traction yet. With another 4%-5% upside in the S & P 500 , the thesis would demand serious attention. A Fed pause? But this time, the S & P 500 had fallen 20% by the time the 10-to-2-year Treasury curve inverted, whereas in past cycles stocks were near a high. The S & P 500 probably needs to reach 4300 — up another 7.5% — to make a solid case for the bear market being over, says John Kolovos of Macro Risk Advisors.

☆ The S&P 500 and the VIX are near key thresholds, which could test the market’s mood
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. On balance, the result for stocks is a hesitation right near a fulcrum point for the S & P 500 – its 200-day moving average and the downtrend line from the January 2022 peak. In the very short term (like on a five-day rate-of-change scale) the S & P as of Wednesday's close was getting slightly stretched. -In the '90s, the Fed thought unemployment anywhere below around 5% to 6% would cause inflation to accelerate, but that proved wrong. For all of 2022, it has been smart to sell into rallies in the S & P at or above the 200-day average and when the VIX has dropped to or below 20.

☆ Bitcoin jumps above $18,000 to highest level in a month, as FTX lawyers recover $5 billion
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Ryan Browne | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Bitcoin on Thursday surged to its highest price in nearly a month, as traders bet on an U.S. inflation cooldown and digest news that lawyers for defunct crypto exchange FTX found billions of dollars' worth of assets, boosting hopes for its users. On Wednesday, attorneys for collapsed crypto exchange FTX said they had found around $5 billion in "liquid" assets, including cash and digital assets. The recovery will be a welcome boon to FTX customers after the crypto exchange imploded in November. FTX lawyers nevertheless warned the $5 billion cache was so high that selling the assets could lead to significant downside pressure on the market, driving down their value. "This could also mean that the market thinks the worst is over for crypto and that most negative news in now priced in."

☆ Stocks are approaching a key bear market level heading into Thursday's inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. The market continues to migrate back toward riskier assets, with the consensus entering 2023 in a defensive posture and ill-prepared for a benign tilt toward inflation data or reassuring signals on corporate results. Media and busted hypergrowth stocks abound on the year-to-date winners list, and this is probably why. It's the market's job to look ahead to handicap a potential inflection point no matter what the Fed is saying. VIX pretty subdued near 21, not exactly clenched up in fear ahead of key data, though probably will drain lower after CPI and ahead of a three-day weekend.

☆ Chart patterns suggest that these 6 investments are about to rocket higher while the rest of the market struggles in 2023, according to a veteran chartmaster
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 has more downside than upside at current levels, according to chartmaster David Keller. US stocks are off to a promising start in 2023 and look poised for a solid rebound after a difficult 2022, according to David Keller, the chief market strategist at StockCharts.com. The S&P 500 is in a long-term downtrend and is currently range-bound, as evidenced by its lower highs and higher lows. David Keller, StockCharts.comThe S&P 500 has traded between 3,800 to 4,100 since late October and will be stuck in that range for the next month or two, Keller said. But while monetary policy tends to steal the headlines, Keller believes technical resistance remains just as big of an issue for investors.

☆ Market expectations for a soft landing are growing after latest batch of economic reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"This is the definition of a soft landing," Apollo Global's chief economist Torsten Slok said on CNBC's " Closing Bell " on Friday. The price hikes at Conagra were crazy. Those price hikes more than made up for higher costs. We may be reaching the limits of price hikes, however: Constellation Brands said consumers are pushing back against beer price hikes. If December's consumer price index, out Thursday, is benign (below the 6.5% year over year growth expected), the market could move even higher.

☆ Investors better hope the CPI data Thursday confirms inflation is in a fairly rapid retreat
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The market continues to act as if investors entered 2023 light on risk and ill-positioned for positive economic outcomes. I continue to point out that while the S & P 500 trades at nearly 17-times forward earnings forecasts, around the 20-year average and merely around "fair" rather than "cheap," the top-heaviness of the index valuation means the equal-weight S & P closer to 14x and the S & P Mid Cap 400 around 13-times. Yes, there could well be downside risk to earnings... Morgan Stanley says some 10-15% risk to current 2023 estimates. Who knows if "higher for longer" rates are fully priced into markets, but an equilibrium might not be far off. If CPI data Thursday contradicts the market's sense that inflation is in a fairly rapid retreat this rally would probably find its next gut check somewhat short of the level where it would have reached escape velocity.

☆ Did the market already show its hand in the first week of 2023? What we've learned so far
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-07 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Recall that at the start of last year, the popular bet was for a smooth and painless rotation from expensive growth stocks to financials and cyclicals. It didn't last: The S & P financial sector trounced utilities by seven percentage points in just the first week of 2022. Yet the Nasdaq 100 's premium to the overall S & P 500 remains at 25% — higher than at any point in the decade before the Covid pandemic hit. And the broader tape, as measured by the equal-weighted S & P 500, continues to act better than the top-heavy headline index. This egalitarian basket, buyable via the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) , is up 16% from the autumn low, is down less than 12% from its record high and has broken to a new cycle high against the traditional S & P 500.

☆ Tesla short sellers pile on pressure after most profitable trade in 2022
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Fresh off their most profitable year ever, short sellers targeting Tesla Inc's (TSLA.O) stock are heaping more pressure on the electric vehicle maker led by Elon Musk. Tesla short interest stands at $8.76 billion, or nearly 3% of the share float, down from $14 billion a month ago, a decline reflecting the steep drop in Tesla's stock price. "As the stock price hits a floor or expected value for short sellers, they will start trading positions to realize their profits. In 2022, Tesla was the most profitable short trade in the U.S. market, earning $15.85 billion in paper profits for investors, according to S3 data. That was the best year ever for Tesla short sellers, but they have recouped only about a quarter of the $60 billion in estimated losses from 2010 to 2021.

☆ Tesla upgraded by Edward Jones as it tumbles for yet another day
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Tesla 's dramatic decline has started to catch the eye of some Wall Street firms that were previously skeptical of the stock, including Edward Jones. Analyst Jeff Windau upgraded Tesla to buy from hold during Thursday's trading session, saying in a note to clients that the stock now looks cheap in the context of Tesla's long-term growth prospects. In our opinion, the share price of Tesla does not reflect its long-term growth opportunities," the note said. Windau cited potential improvements to Tesla's full-self driving feature and batteries as growth drivers for the company. TSLA 5D mountain Tesla's stock has fallen in the first week of 2023.

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