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☆ Joined-up G7 is best China deterrent
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The best chance of steering between these twin evils is for the G7 to agree on a strong deterrence strategy. This would make it harder for China to hold G7 countries to ransom if they came to Taiwan’s aid. The United States is also leaning on its allies to stop China from acquiring militarily useful technology such as advanced semiconductors. CONTINGENCY PLANSThe other plank of a G7 deterrence strategy is contingency planning for what the allies would do if China invaded Taiwan. This would ideally involve building consensus about how the United States would respond to escalating tensions.

☆ Beijing expects foreigners to trust, not verify
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In recent months, Chinese investigators have detained employees of U.S. due-diligence firm Mintz Group, visited consultancy Bain & Company and suspended auditor Deloitte’s Beijing operations for three months. Security watchdogs have restricted overseas access to financial data providers like Wind Information, as well as academic database China National Knowledge Infrastructure. Local banks loaned 3.9 trillion yuan ($560 billion) in March alone while corporations issued 328 billion yuan of bonds. Besides Wind, other Chinese data providers including company databases Qichacha and TianYanCha have stopped opening to offshore users, according to three of the sources. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ It’s time HSBC’s top owner calms down or sells up
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Sticking around as a noisy unhappy owner with an 8% stake, though, risks hurting itself, HSBC and maybe even Hong Kong. A vote on Friday at HSBC’s annual meeting will test whether Ping An has garnered much support for its stance. A second resolution from the group wants the pre-Covid dividend reinstated and paid at not less than that level each year. Chances are both resolutions will pick up some votes, the latter especially from retail shareholders who globally between them own about one-third of the bank. If any large institutional investment houses join the Chinese group, it will be a blow to HSBC boss Noel Quinn.

HONG KONG, May 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Chinese travellers are opening their suitcases again, but not their wallets. Domestic travel bookings during the holiday surged eightfold from a year earlier, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, according to online travel agency Trip.com (9961.HK). The return of Chinese holiday-goers should be a huge relief at home and abroad. Before the pandemic, domestic tourism contributed a whopping 11% of GDP and 10% of national employment, according to Fitch. The country's Big 3 carriers - Air China (601111.SS), China Southern (600029.SS), and China Eastern (600115.SS) - are grappling with high oil prices, a weak yuan and geopolitical tensions.

HONG KONG, May 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Money flowing into the People's Republic is getting uncomfortably hot. Yet recent reversals in New York, Hong Kong and Shanghai suggest that is driven by fickle short-term funds – exactly what Beijing doesn’t want. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsFollow @mak_robyn on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSChinese spirit maker ZJLD shares closed down 18% lower than their initial public offering price on their trading debut April 27. The KKR-backed company raised $676 million in what was the biggest offering in Hong Kong since October 2022. Separately, the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, Canada's third largest pension fund, closed down its China equity investment team based in Hong Kong, Reuters reported on April 25, citing sources.

☆ China’s Midea regains outbound deal appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, May 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Midea (000333.SZ), a $58 billion Chinese white goods champion, made waves in Europe in 2016 when it bought German robot maker Kuka for nearly $5 billion. Seven years later, the company is eyeing Sweden’s home appliance brand Electrolux (ELUXb.ST), a complementary asset currently worth around $7 billion including debt. A successful tilt could mark the beginning of a revival in outbound M&A by Chinese firms after offshore deals touched a historic low of $29 billion in 2022, per EY estimates. To close the Kuka acquisition, Midea offered a 36% price premium and generous guarantees including leaving management in place until 2023. Nevertheless, it seems likely that more cash-rich Chinese companies like Midea, seeking to hedge weak domestic demand with overseas customers, will gingerly test cross-border M&A markets this year.

☆ DBS' safe profit haven nears its peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, May 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Top Singapore-based bank DBS (DBSM.SI) on Tuesday released first-quarter numbers that will make rivals envious. Expenses fell, meaning the bank used just 38% of its revenue to cover costs compared to 59% at JPMorgan (JPM.N). Net interest income already fell 1% last quarter from December. Meanwhile, as much as DBS still touts its status as a safe haven for those – especially rich Chinese people – who want to shield their money from trouble elsewhere, that advantage is also dimming. Absent other such calamities or Gupta being wrong about interest rates, this might be as good as it gets for DBS for now.

☆ Sumitomo triples down on Jefferies at right time
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MELBOURNE, April 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Jun Ohta may have preferred to catch a bigger Wall Street fish. But the CEO of Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.T) is expanding his relationship with relative minnow Jefferies (JEF.N) at an opportune moment. The $56 billion SMFG also intends to increase its ownership of the $7.6 billion company run by Richard Handler to 15% by purchasing ordinary shares that it will convert into preferred stock. Slumping deal flow after what Jefferies called an “off-the-charts” 2021 prompted its earnings to more than halve last year. SMFG will buy common stock on the open market and then convert it into non-voting preferred stock.

☆ Hong Kong bourse’s profit pop looks passive
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Thomas Shum | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HONG KONG, April 27 (Reuters Breakingviews) - What does a stock exchange operator do when equity markets are weak and interest rates are high? Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (0388.HK) posted a 28% year-on-year profit pop on Wednesday, largely propelled by stellar investment returns as opposed to its core business. Sustained weakness in equities trading and initial public offerings could augur tougher times ahead if transaction volumes don’t come back soon. Though Hong Kong’s IPO pipeline is better than many, with over 90 applications as of the end of March, the issue sizes are restrained. Net profit amounted to HK$3.4 billion ($434 million), up 28% from a year ago, with revenue and other income rising 19% year-on-year to HK$5.56 billion.

☆ Exploring the City of London’s existential dread: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Peter Thal Larsen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, April 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The global financial centre is suffering a spasm of anxiety about its status, while the government is pushing post-Brexit reforms. In this Exchange podcast William Wright, founder of the New Financial think tank, discusses the roots of the malaise and what can be done to fix it. Subscribe to Breakingviews’ podcasts, Viewsroom and The Exchange. Editing by Thomas Shum and Katrina HamlinOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Asia's richest banker will loom over his successor
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Shritama Bose | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It will also be messy and is at odds with the regulator’s own aim to improve governance across the industry. Bosses of the country’s private-sector banks are allowed to stay in their jobs for up to 15 years. It is little surprise that more than 99% of investors voted for him to stay, per exchange filings published last week. If Kotak sits on the board, his successor - expected to be an insider – will effectively continue to work with his or her long-time boss. If things go wrong at Kotak, regulators may end up wondering who to blame.

☆ TPG’s funeral deal is stuck in awkward purgatory
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, April 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - TPG (TPG.O) is stuck between the mortal world and the afterlife with its dalliance with Australia’s funeral-services company InvoCare (IVC.AX). But the roughly 20% stake it picked up around the same time locks the pair into an awkward dance. InvoCare was open to better terms, and offered the suitor access to limited, non-public financial information. Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States, rising global worries about financial stability will make it harder to do deals. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ South Korea's chip dilemma gets sharper
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

China's security review of the $66 billion Micron is largely seen as retaliation against U.S. export controls on chipmaking technology. Yet Yoon has reason to do what America asks at the expense of South Korean companies. Bolstering the security alliance amid rising nuclear risks from North Korea will be on the top of his agenda; negotiating better terms for South Korean electric-car and chip investments into the United States will be another. As the chip war heats up, and threatens to widen, Seoul will find keeping its top two trading partners happy even tougher. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Hong Kong’s dollar stress gets more fundamental
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, April 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hong Kong’s currency peg to the greenback is stuck between a rock and a hard place. In the past 12 months, the de-facto central bank has stepped in to buy Hong Kong dollars from the market roughly 40 times. Some foreign financiers, including Pershing Square boss Bill Ackman, argue Hong Kong’s financial system can’t sustain the peg and question its rationale. But in the long run, demand for Hong Kong dollars depends on confidence in its economic strategy. Hong Kong’s peg is durable enough for now, but its future is in doubt nevertheless.

☆ Investors can discount IMF’s emerging-market gloom
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Historically, monetary tightening in the United States has been kryptonite for emerging-market investors. Most important of all, many emerging-market central banks learned the lesson of previous cycles and raised rates early. By the end of 2021, two-thirds of the major emerging-market central banks were tightening monetary policy. Perhaps the 2020s will bring a Highly Indebted Rich Countries initiative in which emerging-market countries return the favour. But when it comes to considering the investment case for the majority of emerging-market sovereigns, investors should not be swayed.

Beijing's retaliatory strategy against U.S. chip sanctions is a bigger worry. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing has so far remained relatively unscathed since Washington stepped up sanctions to hobble China’s domestic semiconductor development. Second, even if Chinese companies account for just 11% of TSMC’s top line, its other customers are far more exposed to the People's Republic. How Beijing responds to American pressure will define the scope of TSMC’s recovery. In January, TSMC said its capital spending in 2023 would be between $32 billion and $36 billion, compared to $36.3 billion in 2022.

☆ Breakingviews: Fox is not out of the woods yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, April 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Rupert Murdoch’s Fox will find that a damaged beast attracts more foes. The media company which operates cable network Fox News settled a defamation lawsuit on Tuesday for approximately half of the $1.6 billion sought in damages by the plaintiff, Dominion Voting Systems. In a statement, Fox acknowledged the court’s ruling “finding certain claims about Dominion to be false.”Fox has some $4 billion in cash, so it can easily scratch a check for the $788 million penalty. And while Fox is flush now, Chief Executive Lachlan Murdoch has noted the company needs more scale, given it’s vulnerable to cord cutters and a tepid advertising environment. The $17 billion Fox has survived this round, yet the hunt is still on.

☆ Fox is not out of the woods yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

☆ China’s GDP beat looks a tad too reassuring
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The risk is the shopping recovery gets bifurcated between luxury purchases and basic needs, leaving out big-ticket middle-class items. Meanwhile, Chinese savers added another 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to their household deposits in the first quarter, reinforcing concerns that they will keep hoarding instead of splurging. Bank loans hit an all-time high of 10.6 trillion yuan in the first quarter, yet that did not appear to translate into private investment in fixed assets, which is barely growing. In a speech in March, Cai Fang, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, suggested transferring 4 trillion yuan directly to households to compensate for weak income growth. If the first quarter’s print turns out to be misleadingly rosy, China’s reopening boom could quiet down quickly.

HONG KONG, April 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hong Kong could use a shot of something. Yet compared to the $313 billion Shanghai-listed behemoth Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS), debutante ZJLD is a drop in the near-$100 billion baijiu industry: it logs less than 1% market share. At the top of the marketed price range, ZJLD could be worth $5.4 billion, or almost 24 times this year's forecast earnings, IFR reports. Revenue at the company, which will be the first baijiu distiller to list in Hong Kong, was up a healthy 15% last year, while its adjusted net profit margin topped 20%. For Hong Kong, consumer stocks will put the focus back onto classic risks.

☆ India's HDFC is in fine shape for its big deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HDFC Bank’s (HDBK.NS) net interest income rose 20% year-on-year in the three months to March. The $116 billion financier’s mix of deposits points to some niggles. As interest rates rise, savers tend to move idle funds from low-yielding checking accounts to fixed deposits, where money is locked up for a specific period against juicier interest rates. For now, the hotly watched net interest margin, unchanged at 4.3% for the last nine months, is holding up. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

HONG KONG, April 14 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Macau, once the world’s largest gambling hub, is far from a sure bet. For MGM China (2282.HK) and Sands China (1928.HK), the highest is two-thirds more than the lowest, for example. Uncertainty is compounded by onerous obligations companies have to help Macau reduce its dependence on gaming. Take $16 billion MGM Resorts International (MGM.N), whose Japanese resort received a green light on Friday. There’s also $13 billion Wynn Resorts (WYNN.O), which is pushing into the fast-growing United Arab Emirates.

☆ Singapore’s rate pause points to new reality
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, April 14 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Singapore’s surprise decision on Friday to keep its monetary policy unchanged leaves one thing unsaid. The Lion City, whose trade volumes dwarf the size of its economy, joins Australia, India and South Korea in standing pat. Singapore has repeatedly warned this would damage the Lion City’s growth outlook. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in 2019 that it should prepare for these consequences and adapt to new global realities. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

With that out of the way, Zhang is cleared to focus on Alibaba's massive corporate overhaul unveiled last month. Current shareholders will be left with a holding company led by Zhang, plus Alibaba's cash-cow Chinese commerce business. After all, Alibaba's U.S. shares are down over 60% in the past two years, while the S&P 500 has stayed largely flat. The sales will eventually reduce SoftBank's stake in Alibaba to 3.8%. In 2022, SoftBank booked a gain of $34 billion by cutting its stake in Alibaba to 14.6% from 23.7%.

HONG KONG, April 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Alibaba's (9988.HK) worth may be hiding in plain sight. The $260 billion Chinese group wants to split off faster-growing, money-losing bets like its cloud and logistics units. It accounted for 9% of Alibaba's top line in the nine months to December, nearly double five years ago. Zhang would do well to focus investor attention back onto Alibaba's commerce operations in China. That’s some 30% more than the company’s entire market value as of Wednesday.

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