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☆ Forget inflation, it’s all about earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

They noted that over the last three quarters, S&P 500 reactions to earnings beats and misses have soared higher and have now surpassed the one-day market reaction to both CPI inflation and Fed policy meeting decisions. Shares of Disney sank 13.16% last November — their lowest level in more than two years — when they missed earnings estimates. “We see this as a narrative shift in the market from the Fed and inflation to earnings: reactions to earnings have been increasing, while reactions to inflation data and FOMC meetings have been getting smaller,” wrote Subramanian and Kwon. So we can expect some serious volatility over the next few weeks as companies report their fourth quarter corporate earnings. Bad news ahead: The estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter of 2022 is -3.9%, according to a FactSet analysis.

☆ 'The market is built on a bedrock of total complacency': A former top TD Ameritrade technical analyst says stocks will fall another 20% this year as investors begin to realize a Fed pivot isn't in the
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

He also thinks earnings expectations are too high and will come down. This hawkish policy will eventually lead to a recession this year, Bierman said, a view that is shared by many on Wall Street. "The market has not priced in earnings misses, the market has priced in earnings beats," he said. Bierman's views in contextBierman's recession call has become a somewhat consensus view on Wall Street. RIA AdvisorsThis translates to lackluster expectations for stocks among Wall Street strategists.

☆ Analysis: With banks' results on tap, options traders prepare for volatility
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Brian SnyderNEW YORK, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Options traders are bracing for volatility in U.S. bank shares days ahead of an earnings season many believe will bring lower profits and reflect worries over an expected recession. The trade would be profitable if the ETF’s shares slipped below $33 by mid-February, a 6% decline from current levels. The S&P 500 bank index (.SPXBK) fell 21.6% last year, compared to a compared to a 19.4% decline for the S&P 500 as a whole. Options on big bank stocks, on average, are pricing the largest post-earnings moves in the last two years, an analysis by Susquehanna International Group showed. "The trading bias in the options heading into big bank earnings has been buying volatility and protecting positions," said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group.

☆ FedEx is slashing more Sunday deliveries, bolstering critics who say the strategy was a costly mistake
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Emma Cosgrove | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The company will end Sunday service in more zip codes to add to the savings, per an internal memo. Sunday service has been a pain point for both FedEx Ground and its 6,000 delivery contractors. A FedEx spokesperson told Insider via email that it will continue Sunday deliveries for "more than 50% of the U.S. population, primarily in densely populated areas with proven customer demand." Sunday service has been a point of tension for FedEx and the 6,000 delivery contractors that make doorstep deliveries for FedEx Ground, since many say demand for the service doesn't justify its cost. Multiple FedEx delivery contractors told Insider previous cuts to Sunday service made a noticeable positive difference in the health of their businesses.

☆ Bank of America: These are the 11 top stocks to buy for 2023 to position for both a recession in the first half of the year and the recovery afterwards
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors should focus on quality stocks with strong fundamentals in 2023, said BofA. Bank of America recently released its top stock picks across the 11 S&P 500 sectors. The basket of 11 stocks chosen in 2022 outperformed the S&P 500 by 8.5 percentage points. "Given our house view that 2023 could be a tale of two halves — a recession and a recovery — stocks may fare differently in these two periods, and we note recession and recovery beneficiaries below," she wrote. The 11 stocks are listed below, along with each company's ticker, market capitalization, sector, and appropriate analyst commentary.

☆ A 33-year market vet shares why history shows stocks will likely fall more than 20% further before bottoming as a recession barrels toward the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-07 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But Lebowitz thinks there's a much greater chance that a recession occurs, forcing the Fed to back off. And then there's the inverted yield curve, which has preceded every recession since the 1960s. RIA AdvisorsIt's also not a good environment for stocks because yield curve inversions have usually meant large downward earnings revisions, which haven't happened yet. RIA AdvisorsAnother look at history, Lebowitz said, shows that a recession has to be already underway before stocks can bottom out. The yield curve, Chicago PMI, and other analyses argue it's a matter of when but if a recession occurs.

☆ Investors clinging to the S&P 500 aren't safe and should get out of crowded trades and into other areas like small caps, Bank of America's top stock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors clinging onto the S&P 500 aren't safe, according to BofA's Savita Subramanian. She encouraged investors to allocate more funds into overlooked areas of the market, like energy and small cap stocks. Last year was dismal for stocks, with the S&P 500 losing 20% as the Fed jacked up interest rates and battled sky-high inflation. She pointed instead to areas like energy and small cap stocks, which are relatively less crowded compared to the S&P 500 and could be a safer bet. Other Wall Street analysts have also predicted a 20% drop in the first half, which could be a major buying opportunity for investors, Subramanian said.

☆ Bank of America's top 2023 picks include an under-the-radar tech stock
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors looking for somewhere to park their money in the new year may want to consider these top stock picks, according to Bank of America. The bank outlined 11 of its favorite names for 2023 in a note to clients Wednesday. Some names, however, may be better positioned to ride out the volatility, according to the Wall Street firm. As uncertainty lingers, here are some of the names Bank of America recommends: One under-the-radar pick is Analog Devices , a semiconductor stock that sold off about 7% in 2022. Another 2023 name to buy is health-care stock Humana , which outperformed in 2022 as investors flocked toward safe-haven sectors.

☆ Adani lifts payout for NDTV open offer to match payment to founders
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BENGALURU, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS) said on Tuesday it will raise the amount it pays New Delhi Television Ltd (NDTV.NS) stockholders who tendered their shares in the conglomerate's open offer to match what it paid the news broadcaster's founders for their stake. Adani Enterprises said it will pay an additional 48.65 rupees per NDTV share to investors who sold their shares in an open offer between Nov. 22 and Dec 5, taking the payout to 342.65 rupees per share and matching what it paid NDTV founders Radhika and Prannoy Roy. About 5.3 million shares were tendered in the open offer, at 294 rupees per share, and Indian billionaire Gautam Adani now controls about 65% of NDTV after acquiring a 27.26% stake from the Roys last week, four months after launching his takeover. Founded in 1988 and owned by the husband-and-wife team, NDTV had said the takeover move "was executed without any input from, conversation with, or consent of the NDTV founders". Still, the founders sold a majority of their shares and retained only a 5% stake.

☆ A 30-year investing vet who called the latest bear market warns that stocks have another 41% downside with US economy already in recession and the Fed continuing to ratchet up rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks the US economy is already in recession. With growth slowing and the Fed still tightening, Wolfenbarger thinks stocks are due for big losses. The S&P 500 is already down around 20% year-to-date. All of that spells further trouble ahead for stocks, Wolfenbarger said, despite the fact that the S&P 500 has already fallen about 20% in 2022. In a recessionary scenario, Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said the S&P 500 could fall to 3,150, though that is not his base case.

Once high-flying mega-cap technology stocks tumbled in 2022, but some investors are willing to bet on Amazon and Alphabet in 2023, a new Delivering Alpha investor survey suggests. Betting on energy Energy stocks rallied in 2022 as the world grappled with supply constraints fueled by the conflict in Ukraine, but some investors aren't giving up on it just yet. When asked which areas they plan to focus on at the beginning of 2023, 41% of respondents highlighted energy stocks. Fundstrat's Tom Lee told CNBC last month that energy stocks can more than double next year even if the market stays flat . As uncertainty lingers, survey respondents also said they plan to look beyond the U.S. in 2023 toward opportunities in emerging markets.

☆ CIOs Nominate Their Favorite Reads of 2022
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Tom Loftus | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +9 min

Chief information officers, ever alert to any development in a field that only hurtles forward, largely reflected that alacrity in their choice of reading during 2022. PREVIEWChris Bedi, chief digital information officer, ServiceNow Inc. Photo: IBM Corp.Ron Guerrier, chief information officer, HP Inc. Photo: Cisco Systems Inc.Fletcher Previn, chief information officer, Cisco Systems Inc. Photo: Home Depot Inc.Fahim Siddiqui, chief information officer, Home Depot Inc.

☆ Bank of America's stock chief warns that the S&P 500's popularity could be its worst enemy as investors crowd in. She told us her strategy for avoiding that volatility in a rocky 2023 market.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Crowding in S&P 500 index funds make the index vulnerable to volatility, Savita Subramanian says. The Bank of America equity chief currently sees the S&P 500 at 4,000 by year-end 2023. "The S&P 500 is one of the most liquid equity benchmarks — it's made up of the largest stocks in the world," she continued. "Given this crowding into the S&P index, we've actually seen the S&P 500 exhibit higher realized volatility than the Russell 2000 or less historically-liquid benchmarks. She then sees the market stabilizing and the S&P 500 recovering to around 4,000 by the end of 2023.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns stocks are still as overvalued as they were in 1929 and 2000, setting up the S&P 500 for a 'far deeper retreat' and a decade of negative ret
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Hussman expects a "far deeper retreat" in stocks, despite the S&P 500's 20% loss in 2022. The 20% loss the S&P 500 has suffered this year has most investors searching for a bottom. "Though recent market losses have removed the most extreme speculative froth, our most reliable valuation measures remain near their 1929 and 2000 extremes." He also said he expects -6% returns over the next 10-12 years for the S&P 500. The chart below shows actual market returns (vertical axis) over 12 years when considering market capitalization of non-financial stock-to-gross value added valuations.

☆ Here's why Wall Street is warning the Fed blew it on inflation and it won't save the stock market from crashing
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The Fed blew it on inflation stocks are going to have to suffer as a result. The central bank has no choice now but to keep hiking until inflation is down, experts have said. Here are five top voices in markets warning investors not to pin their hopes on a Fed put to save stocks. El-Erian has been a loud critic of the Fed's response to inflation this year, slamming central bankers for saying inflation was "transitory" in 2021. That's the cost of the Fed being late to the game, and the central bank can't back away from its monetary tightening now, El-Erian warned.

☆ 2 looming problems are threatening to hammer FedEx — and that's not even counting the recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Emma Cosgrove | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

FedEx CEO Raj Subramanian said the company is facing less demand due to an "e-commerce reset." "I think the main macro issue in the United States is really the e-commerce reset," FedEx CEO Raj Subramanian said on the call. Market share worriesThe question e-commerce-related businesses have been asking all year is how much of the pandemic growth will stick. Companies from Shopify to Paypal have taken the conservative view: that e-commerce growth will revert to where it was headed in 2019. He told Insider that UPS is growing faster with small and medium businesses, and is more profitable than FedEx.

☆ FedEx is frantically cutting billions in costs as its pandemic success evaporates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Emma Cosgrove | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This time last year, the company said it had reached a turning point and would achieve a level of profitability not seen since the first rush of pandemic e-commerce packages. FedEx's Ground business, which makes everyday e-commerce deliveries in the US, struggled to a lesser degree. FedEx's operational missteps, combined with ballooning fuel and labor costs, created unrest among Ground delivery contractors and boosted costs across the company. Spencer Patton tried to unite FedEx contractors. A few big-time FedEx contractors have a new plan to boost struggling delivery outfits.

☆ Beware these stocks: Analysts see a rough year ahead for these companies
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC Pro looked at stocks that are poised to lose the most in 2023 based on the average analyst price target, according to FactSet. Asset manager Franklin Resources has the most downside next year, set to lose 12%, according to the average analyst price target on FactSet. Also making the list is food giant General Mills , which has nearly 8% downside to the average analyst price target. The stock has nearly 7% downside to the average analyst price target, per FactSet. Lastly, Etsy has nearly 4% downside to the average analyst price target.

☆ Risks of a recession in 2023 are growing as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten policy. 4 Wall Street banks share how far stocks will fall if that happens — and when the market will bottom.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-17 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Consumer Price Index was 7.1% in November, and the Fed brought the fed funds rate ceiling up to 4.5% this week. Below we've compiled what four major Wall Street banks believe stocks will do if a recession plays out. UBSUBS economists are predicting a recession starting in Q2 2023, and the bank's Chief US Equity Strategist Keith Parker therefore sees a hit to earnings ahead. Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs economists, meanwhile, see a soft landing as the most likely scenario for the US economy in 2023. Goldman SachsBank of AmericaBank of America's economists see a recession in the first half of 2023.

☆ What peak inflation really means for the market
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhat peak inflation really means for the marketBofA Securities' Savita Subramanian on the Fed and the markets. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Steve Grasso, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Bonawyn Eison.

☆ Finding low volatility stocks that generate income for what's likely to be another tumultuous year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With 2023 expected to be another rocky year for the stock market, investors may find shelter in low volatility names that produce income. JPMorgan is expecting the S & P 500 to retest this year's lows and Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson believes earnings will shrink 15% to 20% next year. They also have a dividend yield greater than 2% and at least 60% of the analysts covering them rate the stocks a buy, according to FactSet. The companies are all the S & P 1500 and have at least 5 analysts covering them. Some 74% of analysts covering the stock give it a buy rating.

☆ Inflation will remain higher and stickier than the market's pricing in, says BofA's Savita Subramanian
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation will remain higher and stickier than the market's pricing in, says BofA's Savita SubramanianSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities, joins CNBC's "Fast Money" to discuss the Fed's upcoming rate hike decision and her market and economic outlook going into 2023.

☆ These stocks could have the most to gain from peaking inflation, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Certain stocks are poised to gain the most if high inflation is past its peak, according to analysts from the Bank of America. In the past-peak inflation environment, certain stocks are set up to potentially gain, according to a Dec. 6 note by Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America Securities. This means that as inflation subsides, these stocks should get a boost. Other retail names on Bank of America's list include O'Reilly Automotive , Clorox , Ross Stores , Home Depot and Lowe's . Some of these companies picked out by Bank of America have also been able to hold up amid rising inflation.

Last month, Paytm said it would become free cash flow positive in the next 12-18 months. The buyback plans come as several technology stocks in India face pressure amid a rising interest rate environment and concerns over valuations. Shriram Subramanian, managing director of Bengaluru-based corporate governance advisory firm InGovern Research Services, said Paytm's investors should focus on its long-term fundamentals. "Investors should look at how the company is able to make money from their business, the path to profitability and when will they become profitable rather than focusing on the buyback," Subramanian said. Reporting by Nallur Sethuraman and Akansha Victor; Editing by Aditya Kalra and Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Markets are wrong in thinking the Fed would step in to boost falling stock prices, and investors should prepare for a volatile January, Bank of America's chief stock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed won't step back from hawkish policy if stocks are crashing, according to BofA's Savita Subramanian. "The higher the market goes in December, the worse it's going to be in January," Subramanian said to CNBC. But that prospect is unlikely, Subramanian said, predicting more downside for the stock market. But stocks hitting a trough next year could contain the silver lining of setting up a long-term bull market, Subramanian said. She pointed to Bank of America's valuation model – which the bank considers to be its most reliable 10-year predictive model – and estimated that the stock market could have an average annual return of 5% over the next decade.

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