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☆ Tel Aviv hit by car-ramming, stabbing as Israel's Jenin operation winds up
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Palestinians inspect shops burnt and destroyed by Israeli forces in the middle of the Jenin refugee camp, during the storming of the camp near the city of Jenin, in the northern occupied West Bank. Thousands of people were evacuated from the Jenin refugee camp as one of Israel's biggest military operations in years moved to a second day on Tuesday and a suspected car-ramming attack in Tel Aviv underlined the risk of a spillover in violence. At least 10 people have been killed, Palestinian officials said. In Jenin, sporadic gunfire and explosions sounded near the refugee camp but parts of the city were quiet and life proceeded in relative normality. The status of the others was unclear, although Israeli officials said as far as they were aware, no civilians had been killed.

Persons: Tzachi Hanebi, Jihad Hassan Organizations: West Bank, National Security, Palestinian, Hospital, World Health Organization, Islamic Locations: Jenin, Tel Aviv, Israeli, Palestinian, Ramallah, Qabatia

☆ The pain is just starting for commercial real estate - and plunging prices could reignite the banking crisis and choke the US economy, Columbia professor says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Columbia professor has issued a bleak outlook for commercial real estate in the US. Office values are plunging and threaten to cause an "urban doom loop," Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh said. If cities become more expensive and less appealing, people are likely to move out, cutting real estate values even more and causing a downward spiral, he said. Pension funds, real estate investment trusts (REITS), and other entities have invested significant sums in CRE, and the office segment specifically. "I do worry that there is potential for a spillover here, that we haven't seen the end of the banking crisis yet," Van Nieuwerburgh said.

Persons: Van Nieuwerburgh, —, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh Organizations: Service, Columbia Business School, Bank, Signature Bank Locations: Columbia, CRE, Silicon

☆ Analysis: Latin America, after record tightening, could lead way on rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Marion Giraldo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The small South American country of Uruguay has already cut rates, by 25 basis points in April. Chile's central bank kept its key interest rate on hold at 11.25% last week, but said if recent positive trends continue, it could begin cutting the rate in the short term. Forecasts are pointing to a rate cut next month, said Cesar Guzman, macroeconomic analyst at Santiago-based Grupo Securities. Even there, however, the central bank opted to hold rates steady in June as monthly inflation slowed for the first time in half a year. "Colombia and Mexico will be the last ones to cut rates, possibly in the fourth quarter."

Persons: Joan Domene, Reuters Graphics Goldman Sachs, Alberto Ramos, Cesar Guzman, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Kimberley Sperrfechter, Andres Pardo, Marion Giraldo, Natalia Ramos, Fabian Cambero, Nelson Bocanegra, Anthony Esposito, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: MEXICO CITY, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, America, Oxford, Reuters Graphics, Grupo Securities, Reuters, Capital Economics, XP Investments, Thomson Locations: MEXICO, Chile, Brazil, Mexico, American, Uruguay, Santiago, COLOMBIA, America, Argentina, Colombia, Bogota

☆ 'Enormously costly' business loan fraud drove inflation in home prices in certain markets, research suggests
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Prospective buyers are welcomed by real estate agents at an open house in West Hempstead, New York on April 18, 2021. It's been a tough market for U.S. homebuyers with a limited supply of properties driving up prices nationwide. But another factor may have contributed to rising home costs in certain markets — fraudulent claims from the Covid-era Paycheck Protection Program, or PPP, according to new research. "Fraud on this scale is enormously costly," said Sam Kruger, co-author and assistant professor of finance at the University of Texas at Austin. And previous research from the University of Texas at Austin team flagged $117.3 billion of the funds as "suspicious lending."

Persons: It's, Sam Kruger, Kruger Organizations: U.S, University of Texas, Finance, Austin Locations: West Hempstead , New York, Austin

☆ Russia’s NATO Neighbors Brace for Spillover Scenarios
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( Karolina Jeznach | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

WARSAW—U.S. Several governments said they were trading information and analysis in hastily arranged video meetings between allies. In Estonia and Latvia, officials were ramping up border deployments, preparing for any potential exodus of Russians or the possibility of chaos spilling over into the NATO countries. In Warsaw, Poland's prime minister, president and defense ministers met for emergency consultations, followed by discussions with their allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, officials said. “The course of events beyond our eastern border is monitored on an ongoing basis,” President Andrzej Duda tweeted Saturday.

Persons: Andrzej Duda Organizations: NATO, North Atlantic Treaty Organization Locations: WARSAW, U.S, Russia, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Warsaw, North

☆ Opinion | Why This Economist Wants to Give Every Poor Child $50,000
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( The Ezra Klein Show | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +51 min

What you’ve got to do to get more money from wealth is just let your money go out there and make money on its own. darrick hamiltonYeah, the extent to which our tax code incentivizes wealth and capital growth, it centers on existing wealth and capital growth. $50,000 to the most wealth-poor person seems like a big number, but we need to put that number in context. In other words, wealth begets more wealth, and wealth builds upon itself. ezra kleinI think that’s a great place to end, so I’ll ask our final question.

Persons: ezra klein, we’ve, We’ve, Darrick Hamilton, Biden Sanders, Bernie Sanders, Cory Booker, Ayanna Pressley, darrick hamilton, hamilton, you’re, ezra klein There’s, you’ve, that’s, Thomas Piketty’s, it’s, there’s, ezra klein I’m, —, ezra klein We’ve, Bill Gates, Elon, Ezra, Ira Katznelson, Crow, Bill, hasn’t, who’s, I’ve, they’re, ezra klein Let’s, darrick hamilton Naomi Zewde, wouldn’t, Let’s, darrick hamilton Ezra, darrick hamilton I’m, Arthur Lewis, Natalie Diaz, ” Natalie, ezra klein Darrick Hamilton Organizations: The New School, Biden, Task Force, Marshall, Black, Washington D.C, Federal Government, SEED, Oklahoma, Social, Social Security Locations: Hamilton, United States, Prosperity, America, Europe, Tulsa , Oklahoma, Connecticut, Washington, —, hamilton

☆ Asia inflation has peaked, region's growth to overtake U.S. and Europe, Morgan Stanley says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Citing reasons for his optimism, he said Asia is expected to deliver healthier growth rates while the West lags behind. Asia inflation 'not as intense'"We're definitely expecting growth in these two economies to be constrained by the fact that they have had this significant inflation problem," Ahya said in reference to the U.S. and Europe. The U.S. inflation rate has been holding well above the Fed's 2% annual target. Chetan Ahya Chief Asia Economist at Morgan StanleyChina's consumption 'on track'Another driver of Asia's growth is China's projected recovery in the second half of the year. "We're expecting China's recovery to broaden out in second half of this year," Ahya said.

Persons: Kazuhiro Nogi, Morgan Stanley, Chetan Ahya, Ahya, We're Organizations: Mount Fuji, Afp, Getty, Federal Reserve, Asia, Nurphoto, People's Bank of China Locations: U.S, Europe, Asia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Central, China, Jakarta

☆ Does a recession in Europe hurt the US?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Slow consumer spending and sticky inflation have led to two consecutive quarters of economic contraction in the European Union. That means that the eurozone fell into a recession over the winter months, and growth this year is likely to be weak. If Europe sneezes, the economists ask, is it possible that the United States catches a cold? Akinci and Pesenti recently examined whether economic crises in Europe have affected the United States over the past thirty years. Strong employment and higher wages can mean higher inflation as companies pass on increased labor costs by raising the price of goods.

Persons: they’re, Ozge Akinci, Paolo Pesenti, “, we’ll, We’ll, Janet Yellen, Emmanuel Macron, ‘, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, ”, Solomon, ” Solomon, haven’t, It’s, Alicia Wallace Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, European Union, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Organisation for Economic Co, US Federal Reserve, French, CNBC, Federal, CPI, Federal Reserve Locations: New York, United States, Europe, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Greece, France

☆ The Fed's fight against inflation hasn't caused a recession in the US yet, but it could lead to a global downturn
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-11 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Fed's battle against inflation could have economic consequences well beyond US borders, according to a new World Bank report. Markets believe it is likely the Fed will pause interest rate hikes at its policy meeting next week. The central bank has raised interest rates 10 times in a little over a year, though inflation still remains above the 2% target. Hawkish tightening by the Fed can spillover to EMDEs, which could lead to higher domestic interest rates and currency depreciation exacerbating inflation. These findings come amid the World Bank's projection that the global economy is in a "precarious state" as rising interest rates decelerate consumer spending and business investment.

Persons: — Organizations: Bank, Service, Committee, World Bank

Higher rates and overhangs from this year's banking crisis will drastically slow economic growth for the biggest global economies, the World Bank said Tuesday. U.S. GDP growth is expected to decelerate in 2024 to 0.8% as high interest rates further weigh on growth. The bank estimates overall global growth will decelerate to 2.1% in 2023, down from 3.1% in 2022. However, World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill said excluding China, growth in developing economies would be less than 3%. This marks "one of the weakest growth rates in the last five decades," Gill told reporters Tuesday.

Persons: Indermit Gill, Gill Organizations: World Bank Locations: Japan, U.S, China

☆ Goldman Sachs likes this Mexican telecom stock to play the country’s red-hot market
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-03 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Mexican stock market is in rare form this year. The S & P/BM IPC index, the country's stock market benchmark, is up more than 9% in 2023. Given this backdrop, Goldman Sachs highlighted telecom giant Grupo Televisa as a stock that can outperform going forward. The stock has lagged the broader Mexican market, with U.S.-listed shares rising just 7% year to date. The company's U.S.-listed shares are up about 20% in 2023.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Vitor Tomita, Tomita, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S, The, Federal Reserve, Grupo Televisa, Televisa, Univision Locations: Mexico, The U.S, U.S, American, financials, 2H22

☆ China new home prices, sales fall on soft demand in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

New home prices among 100 cities fell 0.01% month-on-month in May from 0.02% growth the previous month, according to survey data from the China Index Academy on Thursday. Home sales by value by property developers fell 18.8% from a month earlier, the independent real estate research firm said in a separate statement on Wednesday. "The real estate market was under greater adjustment pressure and homebuyers' sentiment continued to fall in May," said the firm. The property sector gained a boost from the lifting of tough COVID curbs in December, low mortgage interest rates and a slew of policy support measures. "These (bearish) property market data will likely further weigh on China-related assets in the next couple of weeks," said Nomura.

Persons: Nomura, Liangping Gao, Ryan Woo, Kim Coghill Organizations: China Index Academy, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China

☆ How to Lower Deaths Among Women? Give Away Cash.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Apoorva Mandavilli | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

The pandemic drove 97 million additional people into extreme poverty in 2020, according to a World Bank estimate, prompting more countries to start cash transfer programs. Direct cash transfers have been shown to improve school attendance, nutrition and use of health services. The new study is the first to examine the effect of cash transfers on death rates worldwide, the researchers said. The findings suggest that cash transfers may be helpful not just to women, but to families and entire communities. Cash transfers are often accompanied by improvements to health care services or other infrastructure that helps communities, he noted.

Persons: ”, Harsha Thirumurthy, Thirumurthy, Audrey Pettifor, Pettifor, ” Berk Organizations: University of Pennsylvania, University of North, Chapel Hill Locations: Saharan Africa, Africa, Asia, Pacific, America, Caribbean, U.S, University of North Carolina, South Africa

☆ ECB warns of hit to top European banks if funds run into trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The biggest risk it identified was that shadow banks withdrew their funds from banks, such as deposits and repurchase agreements. These account for 13% of all traditional banks' liabilities -- or more for larger banks. This could happen if the shadow banks -- or non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFI) in the regulators' jargon -- were themselves hit by outflows or lost confidence in a bank. Other spillover channels included forced sales of assets by shadow banks, which would cause losses at traditional banks because their portfolios often overlap or are correlated, the ECB said. It added that distress at systemically important lenders would also spell trouble for shadow banks.

☆ Inflation rose 0.4% in April and 4.7% from a year ago, according to key gauge for the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Price increases were spread almost evenly, with goods rising 0.3% and services up 0.4%. On an annual basis, goods prices increased 2.1% and services rose by 5.5%, a further indication that the U.S. was tilting back toward a services-focused economy. The report showed that spending jumped 0.8% for the month, while personal income accelerated 0.4%. Including food and energy, headline PCE also rose 0.4% and was up 4.4% from a year ago, higher than the 4.2% rate in March. Still, Citigroup economists expect the Fed to raise its forecasts for inflation and GDP when it releases its updates at the June meeting.

☆ India's note withdrawal to improve liquidity, ease short-term rates - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Siddhi Nayak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, May 22(Reuters) - The Indian central bank's decision to withdraw its highest denomination currency note from circulation is likely to improve banking system liquidity, bringing down recently elevated short term rates, analysts and bankers said. Kotak Institutional Equities estimates that liquidity could improve by around 1 trillion rupees, depending on the behaviour of depositors, while QuantEco Research pegs the potential liquidity impact at 400 billion rupees to 1.1 trillion rupees. ICICI Securities Primary Dealership estimates the liquidity surplus could increase to 1.5-2 trillion rupees. India's banking system liquidity surplus has averaged above 600 billion rupees in May. About 2.5-3 trillion rupees of banking sector liquidity leaks out as currency in circulation each year, wrote Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC.

"With loan terms tougher and tighter, the option for private credit providers is on steroids," said Drew Schardt, head of investment strategy at Hamilton Lane, one of the largest investment firms in private markets. Pietrzak sees "attractive" assets in auto and consumer lending. POISED TO GAIN SHAREInvestors providing private credit comprise 12% of the $6.3 trillion U.S. commercial credit market, according to Fitch Ratings. "The tightening of lending standards creates opportunities for private credit to gain share," said Lyle Margolis, Fitch's head of private credit. While private credit funds have grown swiftly, the risks they pose to the financial system appear limited, the Federal Reserve wrote in a report this month.

☆ Oil slips as U.S. debt caution offset supply concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Companies Baker Hughes Co FollowSINGAPORE, May 22 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Monday as caution around the U.S. debt ceiling talks and concerns about demand recovery in China offset support from lower supplies from Canada and OPEC+ producers. The resumption of U.S. debt ceiling negotiations later on Monday will remain a key driver for crude and risk sentiment this week, IG's Sydney-based analyst Tony Sycamore said. "If the housing market continues to fall and policymakers fail to respond, the risk of a double-dip China slowdown increases, which spells bad news for crude oil consumption and demand," Sycamore said. Last week, both oil benchmarks gained about 2%, their first weekly gain in five, after wildfires shut in large amounts of crude supply in Alberta, Canada. Total exports of crude and oil products from the group plunged by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by May 16, JP Morgan said, adding that Russian oil exports will likely fall by late May.

The G7, the European Union and Australia agreed to impose a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil and also set an upper price limit for Russian oil products to deprive Moscow of revenues for its invasion of Ukraine. The IEA, which provides analysis and input to the G7 on energy, does not see the enhanced enforcement of the price caps affecting the global oil and fuel supply, Birol told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the summit. According to Birol, the price cap reached two main objectives: it did not trigger tightness in the markets as Russian oil continued to flow but at the same time Moscow's revenues were reduced. But there are some loopholes, some challenges for the better functioning of the oil price cap," Birol said. "There is no determination of any time frame there, but I think the main issue is because of the reliance of especially European countries on Russian gas almost for decades.

☆ Deep in the Amazon, scientists race to find unknown bat viruses
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Some scientific studies have found that deforestation causes stress in bats, and stressed bats carry more viruses and shed more germs in their saliva, urine and feces. It spiked following the highway’s construction, making the Amazon in the early 1980s a rallying cry for the global environmental movement. When examining spillover risk, scientists use the number of bat species in a given area as a key variable. When humans encroach on their habitat, and bat species commingle, the viral cocktail intensifies. “Odds of it being documented are very slim,” said Caio Graco Zeppelini, an ecologist and bat researcher at the Federal University of Bahia.

☆ 'He lied to us about what he was doing and who he was': Anthony Scaramucci reflects on the top 3 lessons he wants all investors to learn from his experience with Sam Bankman-Fried.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Anthony Scaramucci's investment firm SkyBridge Capital had a rough run in 2022 after being burned by the collapse of the bankrupt crypto exchange FTX. Scaramucci told Insider that the amount of leverage in the system and the tax-loss selling in December depressed their overall performance. Still, there are spillover effects — and lessons — from last year's debacle with FTX that Scaramucci and SkyBridge are working through. Lessons learned from the FTX debacleLast year, Sam Bankman-Fried through FTX, the crypto exchange he founded, bought 30% of SkyBridge for $45 million. And finally, as the majority shareholder of the firm, Scaramucci holds the right of refusal to reject any transfer of the shares.

☆ Bats carry killer viruses. Scientists suggest ways to cope.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

“I have to think on a landscape scale.”Research in Australia also is deepening scientists’ understanding of bats. Flying foxes travel long distances in search of food, dispensing seeds and pollinating trees along the way. As deforestation destroyed habitats and further disrupted the food supply, the bats have increasingly formed year-round roosts near people, they noticed. Native gums flowering around Gympie lured the flying foxes away from horse paddocks and more urban areas. In fact, the most dangerous areas for spillover aren’t rare, pristine habitats absent of humans, scientists say.

☆ China, birthplace of COVID, lays tracks for a new global health crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

Bat viruses have been the source of multiple health crises besides those related to coronaviruses, including recent outbreaks of Ebola, Nipah, and Marburg. Partners in risk The total area at high risk for bat viruses to infect humans more than doubled in size in Laos between 2002 and 2020. The animals, known to be susceptible to bat viruses, included raccoon dogs, bamboo rats and porcupines. As China boomed in recent decades, global demand for rubber also skyrocketed, leading to further development and deforestation here. Already, scientists have found local bats bearing viruses closely related to those responsible for the 2003 SARS and COVID-19 pandemics.

☆ Analysis: Amgen's antitrust woes spur wider pharmaceutical deal fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( David Carnevali | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Even shares of drug companies that do not have pending deals but are seen by analysts and investors as potential acquisition targets were hit. FTC officials did not respond to a request for comment on whether they planned to challenge any other pharmaceutical acquisitions. "We could see similar challenges to the Pfizer/Seagen deal" BMO analysts wrote in a note, arguing that the FTC could target other major drug companies with the resources to engage in bundling. UNDER THE RADARConversely, investors and analysts are hoping that smaller pharmaceutical acquisitions will continue to fly under the radar of regulators. Reporting by David Carnevali in New York; Editing by Greg Roumeliotis and Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ How a deadly bat virus found new ways to infect people
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

Scientists found bats with Nipah virus roosting near Sabith’s home. A search of the neighborhood led to a colony, near their house, of flying foxes, a common fruit bat. NETTING NIPAH: Researchers in Bangladesh use nets to catch bats and collect samples to find the Nipah virus in the wild. REUTERS/Mohammad Ponir HossainWhether Sabith ate contaminated fruit or somehow came into direct contact with a bat, the virus entered his cells. REUTERS/Mohammad Ponir HossainA year later, Chua’s team found the same strain of Nipah virus in flying foxes.

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