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[1/4] A Russian police officer stands in front of a branch of the Raiffeisen Bank in Moscow, Russia, February 27, 2016. It made a net profit of roughly 3.8 billion euros last year, thanks in large part to a 2 billion euro plus profit from its Russia business. Of UniCredit's more than 20 billion euro total revenue last year, Russia accounted for more than 1 billion euros. Meanwhile, Russian savers lodged more than 20 billion euros with the bank, which offers a place to deposit funds with fewer sanctions risks. It banned investors from so-called unfriendly countries from selling shares in banks, unless the Russian President grants an exemption.

☆ Russian central bank holds key rate at 7.5%, gives hawkish signal
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Alexander Marrow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Bank of Russia kept its year-end inflation forecast at 5.0-7.0%, retaining hopes that it can return inflation to its 4% target in 2024. "If pro-inflation risks intensify, the Bank of Russia will consider the necessity of a key rate increase at its upcoming meetings," the bank said in a statement. The bank now sees its key rate in the 7.0%-9.0% range this year, up from 6.5%-8.5% in the previous forecast. The bank adjusted its 2023 GDP forecast to between growth of 1.0% and a contraction of 1.0%, from a 1.0%-4.0% decline previously. That has implications for Russia's 2023 budget, which is currently based on the $70.10 price.

☆ IMF’s outlook on Russia is too rosy to be true
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The international body recently estimated that Russia will avoid a recession in 2023 and expand by 0.3% after shrinking by 2.2% in 2022. The measures will not “significantly” affect Russia’s oil exports, the Fund says. That is a matter of intense debate among economists since oil prices remain below the cap set by the G7. Much will depend on the evolution of oil prices this year. But only a serious oil price rally, improbable in the context of the global economy’s “subpar growth” - to quote the IMF - could justify looking at Russia through rosy glasses.

☆ Russia's current account surplus shrinks 58.2% in Jan as exports fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Russia's current account surplus hit a record high in 2022, as a fall in imports and robust oil and gas exports kept foreign money flowing in despite Western efforts to isolate the Russian economy over the conflict in Ukraine. But Moscow is now contending with sharply lower export revenues, down 35.1% year-on-year in January, in part due to price caps and embargoes on Russian oil and gas products. The slumping revenues combined with soaring expenditure to push Russia's federal budget to a deficit of 1.76 trillion roubles ($24.2 billion) in the first month of the year. The current account is a measure of the difference between all money coming into a country through trade, investment and transfers, and what flows back out. ($1 = 72.7425 roubles)Reporting by Elena Fabrichnaya; Writing by Alexander Marrow Editing by Gareth JonesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ A global recession could be coming - at least that's what commodity prices seem to say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Right now, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, Robin Brooks, is watching weakening commodity prices. Specifically, Brooks pointed out that oil and copper prices have slumped roughly 6% each since mid-January, despite China's easing of zero-COVID policies. "Whatever is going on in China, there's no sign that the end of zero-COVID is boosting global growth, based on commodity prices," Brooks said in a tweet. "Oil prices never went up and copper prices are falling after the initial China reopening excitement fades." He pointed to the sharp change in oil prices last week as an example of shallower liquidity.

☆ Putin's government is reportedly pressuring the Russian central bank to stop with gloomy forecasts and give more 'upbeat' updates about its economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

It's pushing the bank to give more positive outlooks for the country's economy, per Bloomberg. The central bank has been candid about Russia's economic pressure amid the war in Ukraine. Through it all, the Russian central bank has been candid about its assessment of the country's economy, which at times stood at odds with more bullish statements from the Kremlin. But that may soon change — Russian officials are putting pressure on the country's central bank to give more "upbeat" assessments about the country's economy, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with internal deliberations. Senior government officials have criticized the central bank for mishandling market expectations and for giving forecasts that were too pessimistic and alarmist, Bloomberg reported.

A far-right faction of House Republicans is pushing against continued US aid to Ukraine. Those concerns ratcheted up amid House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's tumultuous journey to secure the gavel last month. Kyiv, for its part, has kept a close eye on Congress' dynamics since the GOP won a narrow House majority in the November midterms. "This GOP House majority will demand more oversight, transparency, and accountability to ensure assistance to Ukraine is used as intended," McCaul said in a statement. "Most Europeans don't think that suddenly the US is going to cut support to Ukraine," Araud said, adding that nobody anticipates Washington will "dump Ukraine."

☆ U.S. targets global sanctions evasion network supporting Russia
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Daphne Psaledakis | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The United States on Wednesday imposed sanctions on 22 individuals and entities in multiple countries that it accused of being tied to a global sanctions evasion network supporting Russia's military-industrial complex. The action targeted a sanctions evasion network that the Treasury said is led by Russia and Cyprus-based arms dealer Igor Zimenkov, who, along with his son, Jonatan, were hit with sanctions on Wednesday. The network has engaged in projects connected to Russian defense capabilities, including supplying high-technology devices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Treasury said. Washington also accused certain members of the network of supporting state-owned Russian defense entities under sanctions. GBD Limited, another company in the network targeted in the sanctions, has attempted to supply weapons systems to an African government, Treasury said.

☆ The IMF thinks we may actually skirt a recession. It is also surprisingly upbeat about Russia's economy.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The IMF expects the world economy to grow 2.9% in 2023 — which is better than its October forecast of 2.7%. The IMF also expects Russia's economy to grow 0.3% — a reversal from its contraction of 2.2% in 2022. The IMF expects Russia's economy to expand 0.3% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024 — a stark reversal from an expected 2.2% contraction in 2022. The IMF had predicted in October that Russia's economy would contract by 3.4% in 2022. The fund told Reuters that Russia's economy was supported by a "fairly high" export revenue in 2022 and robust fiscal stimulus in part from military spending.

☆ Trying to bankrupt Russia could backfire
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Reuters GraphicsIn the initial aftermath of the invasion, Western allies mostly issued threats to stop buying Russian oil and gas. Russia could push up the global price by carrying out threats to reduce its oil exports. But if the global price rose enough, Russia might still earn similar amounts at lower volumes. But the global gas price would rise, and Russia could direct the liquefied natural gas it currently sells to Europe to other regions. With Kyiv benefiting from military support and the gains from tighter sanctions uncertain, trying to bankrupt Russia is not worth the risk.

Jan 26 (Reuters) - Russia's finance ministry on Thursday proposed scrapping liquidity restrictions for spending on "anti-crisis" investments from its National Wealth Fund (NWF), citing the need to support key sectors amid challenging geopolitical conditions. Russia's fiscally conservative authorities have tended to be cautious in their use of NWF funds. The ministry proposed that the total volume of such investments not exceed 4.25 trillion roubles ($61.24 billion). The NWF is Russia's sovereign wealth fund, built up through years of profits on the country's oil and gas exports. As of Feb. 1 last year, three weeks before Russia sent troops into Ukraine, the total fund stood at $174.9 billion, or 10.2% of projected GDP.

☆ Russia's war on Ukraine latest: Russian forces said to make progress in Bakhmut
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Protesters gather in support of Ukraine during a meeting of European Union (EU) Foreign Ministers in Brussels, Belgium January 23, 2023. ARMAMENTS* The United States and Germany are poised to boost Ukraine's war effort with the delivery of heavy tanks, sources said, support that Russia condemned as a "blatant provocation". * The United States is poised to start a process that would eventually send dozens of M1 Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine, two U.S. officials told Reuters. * Norway is considering whether to send some of its German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Oslo-based newspapers Aftenposten and Dagens Naeringsliv reported. * A delivery of tanks by the United States to Ukraine would be a "another blatant provocation" against Russia, Anatoly Antonov, Russia's ambassador, said.

☆ Potanin says sanctions constrain Nornickel, force it to adjust strategy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] President and Chairman of the Board of MMC Norilsk Nickel Vladimir Potanin attends a session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Russia June 6, 2019. REUTERS/Maxim ShemetovJan 23 (Reuters) - Nornickel boss Vladimir Potanin, one of Russia’s richest men, said on Monday that the metals giant was reworking its strategy and building closer ties with countries such as China, Turkey and Morocco because of Western sanctions on the Russian economy. We have to deal with all this," added Potanin, who is Nornickel's (GMKN.MM) chief executive and biggest shareholder, owning 36% through his Interros holding group. Potanin reiterated the view he stated soon after the war began, that Russia should not respond to sanctions by confiscating or nationalising Western assets. Potanin was placed on a U.S. sanctions list last month as part of wider measures targeting people and businesses close to President Vladimir Putin.

☆ Lithuania's president says sanctions on Russia must go further
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLithuania's president says sanctions on Russia must go furtherSanctions have an impact on the Russian economy with a time lag and remain "critically important," Gitanas Nausėda, president of Lithuania, told CNBC.

☆ Russia posts record current account surplus of $227 bln in 2022
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Russia's current account - a measure of the difference between all money coming into a country through trade, investment and transfers, and what flows back out - came in at $227.4 billion, up 86% from 2021. Russian imports fell sharply last year amid an exodus of Western firms after the West imposed sweeping sanctions on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. The central bank said higher commodity prices throughout 2022 had helped push the current account higher, while imports slowly recovered in the second half of the year. Russia's export revenues are set to come under fresh pressure in 2023 as Western and Japanese sanctions on Russian oil come into full effect. The Group of Seven major economies will expand an oil embargo beyond crude to include Russian oil products from Feb. 5.

☆ Hungary's foreign minister says Brussels has failed on Russia sanctions
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Hungary's foreign minister strongly criticized the European Union's sanctions against Russia, arguing they have damaged its members' economies more than their target's as well as failing to stop the war in Ukraine. "Because what was the expectation at the beginning of March, end of February, when we discussed the first package of sanctions? That they will put Russia's economy on its knees, therefore the war will be stopped soon," he said. Szijjártó continued: "Russia's economy is not on its knees, definitely. And Europe's economy is suffering more from sanctions than the Russian economy."

☆ Russian car sales down 58.8% in 2022 as sanctions hit industry hard
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MOSCOW, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Car sales in Russia collapsed by 58.8% in 2022, the Association of European Businesses (AEB) said on Thursday, as the industry reels from the impact of Western sanctions on Moscow. Retail sales slumped across the Russian economy in 2022 amid a recession, price instability and heightened uncertainty. Total car sales for the year came in at 687,370, compared to more than 1.6 million in 2021, the AEB said. The industry body forecast that sales would climb by 12% in 2023 to around 770,000 vehicles. Kalitsev said he expected 5-7 new car brands could appear on the Russian market this year, without providing details.

SummarySummary Companies Russia to resume forex interventionRussia to sell yuan amid lower oil and gas revenueUse of yuan underscores greater role of ChinaMOSCOW, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Russia said it would resume foreign currency interventions with the sale of yuan from Friday, underscoring the growing importance of China's currency in Moscow's efforts to ensure economic stability amid Western sanctions. Russian nominal GDP is likely to be $2.14 trillion this year, the highest level since 2013, according to the International Monetary Fund. Its share of the currency market reached 48% in November, MOEX Group (MOEX.MM) said last month, up from less than 1% at the start of 2022. The Russian central bank said it would carry out forex transactions on the yuan market of the Moscow Exchange - the yuan-rouble for settlement tomorrow (CNYRUB_TOM). ($1 = 68.6875 roubles)Reporting by Reuters Writing by Guy Faulconbridge Editing by Gareth JonesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ 5 places World War III could start in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Robert Farley | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

In February 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine, starting the largest clash in Europe since World War II. These five simmering disputes pose the greatest risk of erupting into "World War III" in 2023. In 2022, the world came closer to Great Power War than at any point since the end of the Cold War. These five areas pose the greatest risk for the eruption of what we might be tempted to call "World War III." Pray World War III never happensDestroyed apartments in Lyman after the Ukrainian city was recaptured from Russia forces in November 2022.

☆ Moscow's exiled chief rabbi says Jews could be scapegoated for hardships caused by the war in Ukraine and should leave while they can
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Sophia Ankel | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The chief rabbi of Moscow left Russia earlier this year in protest over its invasion of Ukraine. Pinchas Goldschmidt told The Guardian that Jews should leave Russia while they can. "This is why I believe the best option for Russian Jews is to leave," he said. Goldschmidt resigned from his post as Moscow's chief rabbi earlier this year, after refusing to support Russia's invasion of Ukraine. After leaving the country, Goldschmidt said in a statement that he was leaving the Russian Jewish community "in distress," according to The Times of Israel.

☆ Putin’s Russia will look more like North Korea
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Dec 22 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The Western sanctions that followed the invasion of Ukraine have made it impossible for Russia to import what it needs. Foreign investors are staying away, thousands of the country’s elite have emigrated, and the price of its main export has sunk. The great shut-off of its economy will accelerate in 2023, as Moscow moves closer to the North Korean economic model. The invasion of Ukraine has inflicted damage on Russia, which depends heavily on the export of oil and gas. As a result, the Russian economy will take a hit.

☆ Putin says Russia wants end to war in Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Dec 22 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia wants an end to the war in Ukraine and that this would inevitably involve a diplomatic solution. "Our goal is not to spin the flywheel of military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war," Putin said. "We will strive for an end to this, and the sooner the better, of course." "All armed conflicts end one way or another with some kind of negotiations on the diplomatic track," he added. Putin also played down the significance of the Patriot air defense system that Biden agreed to supply to Zelenskiy, saying Russia would find a way to counter it.

REUTERS/Igor RussakWASHINGTON, Dec 21 (Reuters) - The Biden administration on Wednesday unveiled new curbs on technology exports to Russia's Wagner military group, in a bid to further choke off supplies to the contractor over its role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Wagner group, which was added to a trade blacklist in 2017 after Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea region, will now be labeled a military end user and face tough new curbs on access to technology made anywhere in the world with U.S. equipment. “The Wagner Group is one of the most notorious mercenary organizations in the world and is actively committing atrocities and human rights abuses across Ukraine,” said Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security Alan Estevez. The Wagner group, a private military contractor with close ties to the Kremlin, was founded in 2014 after Russia seized and annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula and sparked a separatist insurgency in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region. Reporting by Alexandra Alper and David Shepardson; Editing by Leslie Adler and Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Russian central bank holds key rate at 7.5%, warns inflation risks are 'prevailing'
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Bank of Russia said the external environment for the Russian economy remains "challenging" and "significantly constrains economic activity." Russia's central bank on Friday held its key interest rate at 7.5% for a second consecutive meeting, but noted that inflationary risks are rising. The Bank of Russia last raised rates in late February, following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine — taking the key rate from 9.5% to 20% at the time. At the same time, pro-inflation risks are up and prevail over disinflationary risks," the Bank said. Russian annual inflation was estimated at 12.7% in December, according to the Bank of Russia, well above its 4% target.

☆ Russia improves Q3 economic contraction to 3.7% y/y - revised data
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Summary This content was produced in Russia, where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine. MOSCOW, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Russia's economy shrank 3.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022, revised data from the federal statistics service Rosstat showed on Wednesday, an improvement on the previously reported 4.0%. Officials and analysts have been gradually improving GDP forecasts for the full year, but suggested that the overall drop in output may be more prolonged, though less sharp, than first expected. After growing 3.5% in the first quarter, the Russian economy has now slipped into recession, with 4.1% and 3.7% contractions in the subsequent two quarters. Russia's economy ministry forecasts GDP to fall 2.9% in 2022 as a whole.

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