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☆ Gold prices dip as U.S. debt deal, rate-hike bets weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum in Munich. Gold prices held close to a two-month low on Tuesday as optimism over a U.S. debt ceiling deal and reduced bets for a pause in the Federal Reserve's rate hike policy in June dented the metal's appeal. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,938.57 per ounce by 0448 GMT. U.S. President Joe Biden said on Monday he feels good about prospects for passage by Congress of the debt ceiling deal that he reached with House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Having navigated the financial crisis of 2008, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari worries about systemic risks.

☆ In the Market: Amid the calm, the Fed brews the next storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Paritosh Bansal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Earlier this month, Chairman Jay Powell said the Fed's monetary policy and financial stability tools were "working well together," allowing it to support banks and pursue price stability. But several people in the market believe not only is the regional banking sector still under stress, multiple other risks to financial stability also remain. Tighter monetary policy could well cause them to blow up or worsen the impact of other shocks, such as debt ceiling negotiations. "The Fed has no desire to conduct monetary policy through financial crises," said Wendy Edelberg, director of The Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. In its most recent financial stability report earlier this month, the Fed listed several areas of concern, including life insurance and some types of bond and loan funds.

☆ Major central banks were expected to pause rate hikes soon. Now it's not so clear cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Brendan McDermid | ReutersThe market has long been pricing in interest rate cuts from major central banks toward the end of 2023, but sticky core inflation, tight labor markets and a surprisingly resilient global economy are leading some economists to reassess. Economic resilience and persistent labor market tightness could exert upward pressure on wages and inflation, which is in danger of becoming entrenched. The Bank of England The U.K. faces a much tougher inflation challenge than the U.S. and the euro zone, and the U.K. consumer price inflation rate fell by less than expected in April. Meanwhile core inflation jumped to 6.8% from 6.2% in March, which will be of greater concern to the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee. Risk management considerations will, we think, force the MPC to push rates higher and further than previously intended."

And an increase in underlying core inflation to 4.7%, up from a 4.6% pace in March, underscored the less-than-steady progress on the Fed's inflation fight. In March Mester had already expected the Fed to raise the policy rate beyond its current 5.00%-5.25% range. Fed policymakers also say they are watching credit conditions closely, though Mester on Friday said that so far she's not seeing worrisome "extra" tightening from the recent regional bank failures. Odds in futures markets are running three to one in favor of a rate hike by then. Other Fed policymakers have echoed that hawkish call.

☆ A U.S. recession would be 'good news' for markets, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. consumer price inflation eased to 4.9% year on year in April, its lowest annual pace since April 2021. Markets took the new data from the Labor Department earlier this month as a sign that the Federal Reserve's efforts to curb inflation are finally bearing fruit. They eventually opted for another 25 basis point increase at the time, taking the target fed funds rate to between 5% and 5.25%. By November 2024, the market is pricing a 24.5% probability — the top of the bell curve distribution — that the target rate is cut to the 2.75%-3% range. "To me, it all really is going to come down to 'is the economy gonna touch near a recession?'

☆ Debt ceiling crisis: How a US default would ricochet around the world
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

But if it does, it could make the 2008 global financial crisis feel like a walk in the park. The consequences are frightful.”The belief that America’s government will pay its creditors on time underpins the smooth functioning of the global financial system. During the 2011 standoff over raising the US debt ceiling, the S&P 500 index of leading US shares plunged more than 15%. “It’s unclear in a Treasury default crisis whether the Fed could do enough even with the types of efforts it deployed in March 2020,” Obstfeld said. “A default would be a message to investors all around the world of eroding confidence in America,” he added.

☆ Dollar higher as U.S. debt ceiling concerns keep traders nervous
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar hit a two-month high against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as a lack of progress in talks over increasing the U.S. debt limit hurt investors' appetite for risk-taking. "I think the dollar saw a modest boost today as stocks have declined, mostly due to the lack of progress on the debt ceiling deal," said John Doyle, vice president of trading and dealing at Monex USA. While most market participants expect a deal eventually, the delay in getting it done was keeping traders nervous, Doyle said. "The focus is slowly going back towards inflation and all this hawkish Fed speak we've been getting," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. "We're probably looking at a market that is repositioning itself for a little bit more dollar strength here as these Fed rate cut bets get pushed back a little bit further and higher for longer."

Persons: Joe Biden, John Doyle, Doyle, James Bullard, Neel Kashkari, we've, Edward Moya, Jerome Powell, Powell, Moya Organizations: U.S, Republicans, Monex USA, Fed, Traders Locations: New York

☆ Gold recovers as debt-ceiling talks make little apparent progress
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices rebounded from their earlier losses on Tuesday, as yields fell and the dollar retreated from its highs, while another round of U.S. debt ceiling talks ended without much progress. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,975.39 per ounce, after shedding as much as 0.8% earlier. Gold rose from session lows on reports of further negotiations over raising the debt ceiling, said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Wall Street's main indexes fell and the dollar index backed off from its session high, while benchmark 10-year yields fell from a two-month peak. Gold tends to lose appeal when rates rise and push up bond yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield bullion.

Persons: Daniel Pavilonis, Joe Biden, Pavilonis, Bullion, Ole Hansen, Neel Kashkari, Silver Organizations: Futures, Republicans, Saxo Bank ., Tuesday U.S, Investors, Federal

SummarySummary Companies U.S. debt limit talks to kick off at 5:30 p.m. President Joe Biden and House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy will meet for talks on Monday after their discussions almost fell apart on Friday. The fresh talks come less than two weeks before a deadline after which the Treasury warned that the federal government will struggle to pay its debts. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsAdvancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.71-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.78-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 13 new 52-week highs and three new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 46 new highs and 35 new lows.

☆ Fed's Kashkari says a June pause on rates wouldn't indicate an end to hiking cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

If we did, if we were to skip in June, that does not mean we're done with our tightening cycle. Kashkari said that if inflation doesn't come down, he would be in favor of increasing rates again. I think that they believe that inflation is going to fall, and then we're going to be able to respond to that. "But nobody should be confused about our commitment to getting inflation back down to 2%." It may be that we have to go north of 6%" on the fed funds rate, he said.

☆ Apple caught on a downgrade based on supply-chain projections. Here's our take
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Christopher Alessi | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Stick with Apple Loop Capital on Monday downgraded Club holding Apple (AAPL) to hold from buy, citing "material downside risk" to the iPhone maker's June quarter revenue. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ 'Close call' on US June rate hike or pause, says Fed's Kashkari-CNBC
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

May 22 (Reuters) - Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on Monday it was a "close call" on whether he would vote to raise interest rates at the central bank's meeting next month or take a pause and leave rates where they are. Speaking on CNBC, Kashkari also said services inflation remains "pretty darn entrenched" and that "it may be that we have to go north of 6%" to get it back to the Fed's 2% target. The Fed raised interest rates for a 10th straight meeting earlier this month, lifting its benchmark overnight rate to a range of 5% to 5.25%. If SVB and the other banks that recently collapsed had "had significantly more equity capital, their depositors would have been reassured because the banks could have absorbed their market-to-market losses," Kashkari wrote. Reporting By Dan Burns; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: Close call whether to raise or pause rates in June
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMinneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: Close call whether to raise or pause rates in JuneMinneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest on the Fed's rate hike campaign, whether he sees more hikes in the future, and more.

☆ Morning Bid: Tech politics, debt cap brinkmanship
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Well-choreographed brinkmanship over the debt ceiling standoff looks set to go down to the wire, while technology firms have once again become a battleground in tense geopolitics. As AI-fueled U.S. technology stocks have led the way this year, the S&P (.SPX) has gained almost 10% this year and hit its highest level in nine months on Friday. Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari said on Sunday he could support holding rates steady at the next meeting. Futures markets see more than an 80% chance of a June pause and still price almost 50bp of cuts by yearend. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Fed's Kashkari open to holding rates steady in June, WSJ reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

"I'm open to the idea that we can move a little bit more slowly from here," the newspaper quoted Kashkari as saying in a Friday interview that was published on Sunday. However Kashkari, a member of the central bank's rate-setting monetary policy committee, cautioned that his mind was not yet made up: "I would object to any kind of declaration that we're done." While inflation has shown signs of moderating since the summer of 2022, it remains well above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed has faced calls to refrain from further tightening to lessen the risk of driving the U.S. economy into recession. Reporting by Juby Babu in Bengaluru; Editing by Lisa ShumakerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Federal Reserve officials are growing skeptical over suspending rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some officials are concerned inflation isn’t cooling fast enough, which could prompt an 11th consecutive rate hike when policymakers meet in June. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell and former Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke (R) participate in a discussion at the Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, DC, May 19, 2023. Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty ImagesEarlier this month, Fed officials voted unanimously to raise the benchmark lending rate by a quarter point to a range of 5-5.25%, while signaling a possible pause ahead. Of course, Fed officials’ thinking on monetary policy could drastically change if the United States defaults on its debt, which could happen as soon as June 1. Fed officials always mention that their views on interest rates largely depend on what economic indicators show, resisting taking an absolute stance on how they will vote.

☆ A new PR tech company just launched that uses ChatGPT to write press releases and lets companies distribute them at very low cost
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Ryan Joe | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The company uses ChatGPT and its own algorithm to automatically write press releases. PR tech startup EZ Newswire launched in beta on Wednesday to remove these challenges and give smaller businesses the ability to cheaply write and distribute press releases. ChatGPT alone isn't good enough to write press releases in its own yet, said Klein. At launch, EZ Newswire hosts the press releases on its own site, and has a partnership with the Associated Press to distribute them. In making press release generation and distribution accessible to both big and small businesses, EZ Newswire hopes to blow wide the market around press release distribution.

☆ A new PR tech company just launched that uses OpenAI to write press releases and lets companies distribute them at very low cost
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Ryan Joe | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

EZ Newswire hopes to disrupt press release distribution, dominated by PR Newswire and Business Wire. The company uses OpenAI and its own algorithm to automatically write press releases. ChatGPT alone isn't good enough to write press releases in its own yet, said Klein. At launch, EZ Newswire hosts the press releases on its own site, and has a partnership with the Associated Press to distribute them. In making press release generation and distribution accessible to both big and small businesses, EZ Newswire hopes to blow wide the market around press release distribution.

☆ Treasury yields fall as investors weigh Fed rate policy path
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Tuesday as investors assessed what could be next for Federal Reserve interest rates following a slew of comments from central bank officials. Investors looked to comments from Fed officials and economic data as they weighed what could be next for interest rate policy and whether the U.S. economy is likely to contract. That comes after last week's inflation data, which was slightly below expectations, led many investors to hope for rate cuts in the second half of the year. Concerns about elevated rates dragging the U.S. economy into a recession have grown louder in recent weeks.

But Fed officials on Monday said the jury is very much out. Bostic said businesses in his southeastern U.S. Fed district "are telling me we think you're close to overdoing it ... Investors have consistently bet that the central bank, due to some combination of recession or a faster-than-expected drop in inflation, will be cutting rates by later this year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank probably has "more work to do on our end, to try to bring inflation back down." In addition, he says the full impact of Fed rate hikes has yet to be felt.

☆ Fed officials expect US interest rates to stay high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

May 15 - U.S. central bankers on Monday signaled they see interest rates staying high and, if anything, going higher, given sticky inflation - a stark contrast with the market's view that the Federal Reserve will be cutting rates well before 2023 is over. Inflation has eased some and should cool further, he said, but the process will not be quick enough to merit rate cuts anytime soon. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed probably has "more work to do on our end, to try to bring inflation back down." "We still are well in excess of our 2% inflation target, and we need to finish the job." And he said he believes the full impact of the Fed's rate hikes so far have yet to be felt.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday he does not expect any interest-rate cuts this year, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation is "much much too high" despite the rate hikes. Investors now await comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday for any clues on potential rate cuts this year. Shares of Magellan jumped 13.7%. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.14-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.92-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded six new 52-week highs and seven new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 44 new highs and 110 new lows.

"And as Washington leaks out increments with rolling disclosure about how the discussions are proceeding ... that probably is bolstering confidence in investors." ET, Dow e-minis were up 51 points, or 0.15%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 7.5 points, or 0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 20.75 points, or 0.15%. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday he does not expect any interest-rate cuts this year as he does not see inflation going down as fast as market participants believe. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook are among other Fed officials set to speak later in the day. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Debt ceiling jitters, Turkey vote, Soros ditches Tesla
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

President Joe Biden is meeting Congressional leaders on Tuesday to try to hash out a compromise to raise the debt limit and avoid a catastrophic default. A regulatory filing on Friday from the family office of George Soros showed the 92-year old billionaire investor has sold his entire stake in Tesla. Soros bought shares in the electric vehicle maker, run by Elon Musk, in 2022, as well as convertible bonds in 2018. Soros wasn't alone in pulling out of some of the pandemic-era darlings in the first three months of the year. Friday's regulatory filing showed he loaded up on other big tech stocks, including Netflix, Uber, chipmaker Qualcomm and cloud-based data company Snowflake - which fellow 92-year old investor Warren Buffett bought into back in 2020.

☆ Oil prices slide 2%, US jobless data and debt-ceiling talks weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices slid about 2% on Thursday as a political standoff over the U.S. debt ceiling stoked recession jitters in the world's biggest oil consumer, while rising U.S. jobless claims weighed on sentiment and a stronger dollar pressured oil too. A stronger U.S. dollar makes oil more expensive in other countries. Higher interest rates can weigh on oil demand by boosting borrowing costs, pressuring economic growth. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged Congress to raise the $31.4 trillion federal debt limit and avert an unprecedented default that would trigger a global economic downturn. U.S. producer prices rose moderately last month, the smallest annual producer inflation increase in more than two years.

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