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China needs more than rate cuts to boost economic growth
  + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's slowing economy needs more than interest rate cuts to boost growth, analysts said. He expects Beijing will likely ramp up fiscal stimulus due to weak growth, despite reluctance so far. "The market is forming a medium to long-term expectation on the U.S. growth rate, the inflation rate. As for Chinese government bonds, Ding said the firm has a "neutral" view and expects the Chinese yields to remain relatively low. He pointed out that monetary easing still requires fiscal stimulus "to achieve the effect of expanding credit and transmitting money to the real economy."
Persons: Larry Hu, That's, Edmund Goh, Yifei Ding, Ding, CF40, Pan Gongsheng, Haizhong Chang, Chang Organizations: China Resources, Getty, BEIJING, People's Bank of China, Macquarie, U.S, of Finance, PBOC, Ministry of Finance, Fitch Locations: China, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, abrdn, Beijing, U.S, Invesco
Read previewIt's official: The labor market vibes are not great. It's the largest tumble in sentiment since August 2021 — and workers' experiences with and expectations for the labor market are partially to blame. A weaker jobs market — although one that's still historically strong — is warping Americans' beliefs about the economy. Even so, though, it'll take a little while for new monetary policy to trickle into daily life and the labor market. Are you having trouble finding a job, or is the job market making you feel bad?
Persons: , It's, Jerome Powell, Wells, Shannon Seery Grein, Jeremiah Kohl, Dana M, Peterson, it'll, Julia Pollak Organizations: Service, Conference, Business, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, Conference Board's, New York Federal Reserve's Survey, Consumer, Survey, Labor
CNBC Daily Open: Some caution might be good for markets
  + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. While analysts think this move may mark the end of China's deflationary streak, many think monetary policy is not enough. How much will oil demand grow? The International Energy Agency thinks oil demand will level off at 106 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.
Persons: Larry Hu, Consumer's, September's, Dow Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, U.S ., People's Bank of China, Macquarie, International Energy Agency, U.S, U.S . Federal, Barclays, Citi Locations: Corte Madera, Corte Madera , California, Asia, Pacific, China, U.S .
Fintech stocks have been in a rut since 2021. Wolfe Research technical strategist Rob Ginsberg pointed out the Global X FinTech ETF (FINX) is close to reaching the $30 level for the first time since 2022. The FINX ETF illustrates this well. This year, the ETF has made some progress, rising more than 9%, as the Fed begins its policy easing campaign. FINX mountain 2021-11-01 FINX since Nov. 2021 A breakout could have broader implications outside of fintech.
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, It's, Tim Long, HPE Organizations: Wolfe Research, Federal Reserve, Fed, Dow Jones, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Barclays, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Juniper Networks Locations: fintech
Lynn Song, chief economist for greater China ING, called the repo rate cut announcement “the most important” move made during the news conference. “If we see a large fiscal policy push as well, momentum could recover heading into the fourth quarter.”The headquarters of the People’s Bank of China in Beijing. During his first news conference as central bank governor in January, Pan said the PBOC would cut the reserve requirement ratio. Unlike the Fed’s focus on a main interest rate, the PBOC uses a variety of rates to manage monetary policy. Pan has indicated he would like the 7-day rate to become the main policy rate.
Persons: Pan Gongsheng, Pan, Lynn Song, , , Jiang Qiming, ” Edmund Goh, Goldman Sachs, Li Yunze, Li, Nomura Organizations: People’s Bank of China Gov, China ING, , U.S . Federal Reserve, People’s Bank of China, China News Service, Getty, Pan, National Financial Regulatory Administration Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing, abrdn
The relatively rare high-level press conference was scheduled after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week. That kicked off an easing cycle that theoretically gives China's central bank further room to cut its rates and boost growth in the face of deflationary pressure. Pan became PBOC governor in July 2023. He then told reporters in March, alongside China's annual parliamentary meeting, there was room to cut the RRR further. China's government system also means that policy is set at a far higher level than that of the financial regulators speaking Tuesday.
Persons: Pan Gongsheng, Gongsheng, Pan Organizations: People's Bank of China, BEIJING — People's Bank of China Gov, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: Shanghai, China, BEIJING
"Today's policy measures are bold by historical standards," Betty Wang, the lead economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note on Tuesday. Stimulus measures don't address consumptionDespite the fanfare, analysts are divided over whether the moves that ease monetary policy constitute a massive "bazooka" stimulus. AdvertisementMost say the monetary easing policies don't address the lack of confidence contributing to depressed consumer spending. China has pulled out multiple support measures this year to shore up its economy and stock markets, but any kneejerk optimism has been shortlived. Advertisement"Overall, we feel today's measures are a step in the right direction, especially as multiple measures have been announced together rather than spacing out individual piecemeal measures to a more limited effect," Lynn Song, the Greater China chief economist at ING bank, wrote on Tuesday.
Persons: , Pan Gongsheng, Pan, Betty Wang, Wang, it's, Nomura, Lynn Song Organizations: Service, People's Bank of China, Business, Analysts, Oxford Economics, CSI, Nomura, ING Locations: Beijing, China, Greater China
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKraneShares CIO on China's stimulus boost: This is the monetary policy bazookaBrendan Ahern, KraneShares CIO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss what to make of China's stimulus boost, possible buying opportunities, and more.
Persons: Brendan Ahern Organizations: KraneShares
Investors are parsing through data and Fed commentary to determine future rate cuts. On Tuesday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman explained why she dissented against a deep cut in September. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! Both indexes closed at all-time highs on Monday amid rising outlooks that the Federal Reserve will deliver another half-point interest rate cut in November. To better understand where monetary policy may be headed after the Fed's first rate cut in four years, investors are tuning into Fed commentary and parsing through incoming data.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, , dovish, Michelle Bowman's, Bowman Organizations: Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Fed, Richmond, Here's Locations: Kentucky
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Monday that he expects policymakers to dial down the pace of interest rate cuts after last week's half percentage point reduction. "I think after 50 basis points, we're still in a net tight position," Kashkari said in a CNBC "Squawk Box" interview. "Right now, we still have a strong, healthy labor market. In their latest economic projections, FOMC members indicated that rate is probably around 2.9%; the current fed funds rate is targeted between 4.75% and 5%. Speaking separately Monday morning, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated he expects the Fed to move aggressively in getting back to a neutral rate.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, we're, Kashkari, Kasharki, Raphael Bostic, Bostic Organizations: Minneapolis Federal, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed Locations: Minneapolis
Bitcoin jumps while Japan holiday dulls most currencies
  + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged last week and indicated it was not in a hurry to hike them again. That decision, coming just days after the Fed's 50 basis points rate cut, put a pause to the yen's sharp gains this month. With Japan closed for Autumnal Equinox Day, the main driver of trade was expectations around further Fed rate cuts and the gains those have spurred in equities, commodity currencies and other risk assets. The Fed's rate cut "appears to have calmed market fears of a U.S. recession", Goldman Sachs said in a note. Meanwhile, the majority of economists polled by Reuters anticipate two more 25 bps rate cuts at the Fed's final two meetings this year.
Persons: Bitcoin, Goldman Sachs, Christopher Waller, Fumio Kishida, Takaichi —, , Shigeru Ishiba, Shinjiro Koizumi, Junichiro Koizumi, Takaichi, pare Organizations: Federal, Bank of Japan, Japan, U.S, U.S ., FedWatch, Treasury, Reuters, House Republicans, Liberal Democratic Party, Barclays, The Bank of Locations: United States, Japan, U.S, The Bank of England
Fed rates not only set short-term borrowing costs for banks, but they also help determine mortgage, auto loan and credit card rates. According to the firm, shares of a few major discount retailers should outperform if middle-income consumers see higher levels of disposable income. Shares of Home Depot and Lowe's are up roughly 12.9% and 17.2% this year, respectively, as the prospect of lower interest rates boosts consumer sentiment. Tech products seller Best Buy could also get a boost from improved middle-income consumer sentiment, Telsey forecasts. If the rate-cutting cycle boosts sentiment among higher-end consumers, Telsey expects consumer retail names such as Williams-Sonoma and German sandal company Birkenstock to outperform.
Persons: Dana Telsey, Telsey Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Walmart, Dollar, Holdings, Tech, Williams, LSEG Locations: U.S, Sonoma, German
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe RBI has 'a problem of plenty' when it comes to its current account: JPMorganSajjid Chinoy of JPMorgan says India's foreign exchange reserves has allowed it to have a degree of monetary policy independence and that in a polycrisis world, having "more is better".
Organizations: JPMorgan Sajjid, JPMorgan
Local residents with umbrellas walk out of a metro station in rain during morning rush hour on September 20, 2024 in Beijing, China. China News Service | China News Service | Getty ImagesBEIJING — More economists are calling for China to stimulate growth, including those based inside the country. His presentation Saturday at Renmin University's China Macroeconomy Forum was titled: "A basket of stimulus and reform, an economic revitalization plan to substantially expand domestic demand." "The elephant in the room is the property market," said Xu Gao, Beijing-based chief economist at Bank of China International. To restore confidence and stabilize the property market, Xu said that policymakers should bail out the property owners.
Persons: Liu Shijin, Liu, Goldman Sachs, China's, Xu Gao, Xu, Nomura, Gabriel Wildau, Teneo, Yi Gang, Wildau, Yi Organizations: China News Service, Getty, Development Research, State Council, CNBC, China Macroeconomy, Goldman, Bank of China International, Center for, People's Bank of China Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING, Renmin, Center for China, U.S
A Chinese flag in Pudong's Lujiazui Financial District in Shanghai, China, on Sept. 18, 2023. Asia-Pacific markets opened lower Monday as investors assessed monetary policy decisions from Japan and China on Friday after U.S. Federal Reserve's sharp rate cut sent markets higher last week. Despite growing calls for lower interest rates, the People's Bank of China unexpectedly left its key benchmark rate on hold on Friday. The Reserve Bank of Australia starts its two-day policy meeting on Monday, where central bankers will decide on the country's monetary policy path on Tuesday. Overall year-on-year CPI is expected to have cooled to 2.15%, compared to 2.40% the previous month
Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, People's Bank of China, Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: Lujiazui, Shanghai, China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Federal, Singapore
LONDON — European stocks are expected to start the week in positive territory as global markets continue to react positively to the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cut last week. The U.K.'s FTSE index is seen opening 46 points higher at 8,245, Germany's DAX up 87 points at 18,810, France's CAC 40 up 40 points at 7,359 and Italy's FTSE MIB up 169 points at 33,821, according to data from IG. Global markets continue to trade higher following the Fed's 50-basis-point cut last week, its first cut in four years. Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher overnight as investors digested monetary policy decisions from Japan and China as well as the Fed's sharp cut. Dow futures were near flat Sunday night after enthusiasm for last week's interest rate cut propelled the blue-chip index to a record closing level.
Persons: Germany's DAX Organizations: U.S, CAC, IG, Global, Dow Locations: U.S . Federal, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China
In a historic dissent, Michelle Bowman, a Fed governor, advocated instead for a smaller 25 basis point cut. AdvertisementLeading up to the rate cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly emphasized the Fed's goals of maximum employment and a 2% inflation rate. Bowman said she believes inflation could come closer to the Fed's target with more gradual easing, which would avoid a spike in demand from lower borrowing costs. AdvertisementBowman has long advocated for tighter monetary policy to rein in inflation, skewing hawkish among the Fed's members. "We should keep in mind the historical lessons and risks associated with prematurely declaring victory in the fight against inflation," Bowman said in a speech last year.
Persons: , Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Fed, Business, New York Fed
But that means investors once again exposed to risks of a tech bubble inflating anew. Hartnett says investors should allocate to bonds and gold to hedge bubble risk. But it means investors will have to chase the stock market surge as bubble risks bounce back, he added. AdvertisementHartnett has previously warned of the potential for a tech bubble as investment in AI has soared. Amid further AI investment and easing policy, Hartnett says the best way to position portfolios is with allocations to bonds and gold, which hedge against growth and inflation risks.
Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, , Michael Hartnett Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Nvidia, Broadcom, ASML, Meta, Treasury
A Japanese flag is displayed as shoppers and pedestrians walk past stores at a shopping street in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2016. Asia-Pacific markets opened higher on Friday with Japan's Nikkei 225 leading gains, after Wall Street soared overnight following the Federal Reserve's outsized rate cut. Japan's core consumer prices index climbed 2.8% year on year, in line with Reuters estimates, versus a 2.7% rise in the previous month. The reading will be the last gauge of the economy before the BOJ concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting, where it's expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. The Japanese yen was nearly flat at 142.67.
Persons: PBOC Organizations: Japan's Nikkei Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Pacific
Gold set for weekly gain on Fed rate cut boost
  + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold lingered near record high levels on Friday and was on track for a weekly gain after the Federal Reserve's recent super-sized interest rate reduction and on signs that further cuts were on the horizon. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,592.17 per ounce, as of 0309 GMT, up about 0.6% for the week so far. Bullion rose to a record high of $2,599.92 on Wednesday after the Fed began easing monetary policy with a half-percentage-point rate cut. "Gold prices are expected to be well supported in the coming months due to a weaker U.S. dollar and lower bond yields, as well as against a backdrop of elevated geopolitical tensions," BMI said in a note. Spot silver rose nearly 1% to $31.09 per ounce and palladium gained 0.6% to $1,086.75.
Persons: Gold, Kyle Rodda Organizations: Federal, Fed, Capital.com, BMI Locations: Birmingham, England, Capital.com . Lower U.S, East, Lebanon, Israel, Lebanese, China, Switzerland
CNBC Daily Open: One day makes all the difference
  + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. "Recalibration" Fed Chair Jerome Powell's use of the word "recalibration" seemed to reassure investors that the central bank's 50 basis point cut wasn't that worrying. It signaled the Fed wasn't responding to a slowing economy, but shifting focus to ensuring employment doesn't dip further, wrote CNBC's Jeff Cox. At the end of Washington's song, she croons, "What a difference a day makes / And the difference is you."
Persons: BOE, Jerome Powell's, Jeff Cox, Dinah Washington, Oppenheimer, Brian Belski, Powell, , Alex Harring, Fred Imbert, Hakyung Kim, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: Nasdaq, CNBC, JPMorgan Chase, of England, Monetary, Fed, Dow, Nvidia, Apple, BMO Locations: New York, Dinah Washington . Washington
The Japanese flag flutters over the Bank of Japan (BoJ) head office building (bottom) in Tokyo on April 27, 2022. The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate steady at "around 0.25%" — the highest rate since 2008 — at the conclusion of a two-day meeting Friday. Japan's economy has recovered moderately, the central bank said in its official statement, while acknowledging "some weakness has been seen in part." BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said last month that the central bank would continue to raise interest rates if the economy and inflation stayed in line with the central bank's projection. On Thursday, The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%.
Persons: BOJ, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Bank of Japan, The Bank of Japan, Nikkei, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: Tokyo
The Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut since 2020 helped drive the week's gains. The anticipation and delivery of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut since 2020 helped drive the gains this week. The Fed issued a jumbo 50 basis point interest rate cut to "recalibrate" monetary policy, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell put it nine times during his FOMC speech on Wednesday. US stocks soared on Thursday after declining slightly on Wednesday, as investors had more time to digest the Fed's interest rate decision. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both hit record highs on Thursday.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Raymond James, Larry Adam, Adam Organizations: Dow, Federal, Investors, Service, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Fed, Dow Jones Industrial
But Wall Street was mostly clueless this week when it came to predicting how big a rate cut the Fed would deliver on Wednesday. The jumbo half-point cut the Fed ultimately rolled out was not at all what traders expected a week ago. Powell: Fed officials ‘left the size of the rate cut open’ ahead of September meetingIn a closely watched speech at the Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, last month, Powell declared “the time has come” to cut interest rates. That data was apparently enough to spur some Fed officials to reconsider their position. “But we do not expect Fed officials to be intentionally opaque,” said Husby.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, , , Price, Christopher Waller, , Powell’s, Thomas Simons, ” Simons, Michelle Bowman, “ We’re, Andrew Husby, Waller, there’s Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal, Fed, PPI, CNBC, Jefferies, BNP Locations: New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Hong Kong central bank cuts interest rate, tracks Fed move
  + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
People wearing face masks walk by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority on March 4, 2020 in Hong Kong. HKMA said the U.S. interest rate cut will have a positive impact on the economy of the Asia financial center and will provide some room for easing of local interest rates. "In Hong Kong, our financial and monetary markets have continued to operate in a smooth and orderly manner. "The rate cut cycle has just begun, interest rates will remain at relatively high level in the foreseeble future. The public should carefully assess and continue to manage the interest rate risk when making property purchase, mortgage or other lending decisions," Lee added.
Persons: HKMA, Howard Lee, Lee Organizations: Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong, HK, U.S ., U.S . Federal Reserve, Hong Kong Locations: Hong Kong, United States, U.S, Asia
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