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☆ Micron case causing concern for US companies in China, business chamber says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SHANGHAI, April 26 (Reuters) - Leaders from a top U.S. business lobbying group said on Wednesday that Beijing's probe against U.S.-based chipmaker Micron Technology Inc (MU.O) marked a "major concern" for other companies operating in the country. "It is a major concern because China lacks transparency in many conventions of law and policy, and this is one," Ross said. The survey results showed respondents were more optimistic about the business outlook in China compared to the previous survey conducted in late 2022, before the government lifted COVID-19 controls. Michael Hart, president of AmCham China, said the survey showed that American companies feel the overall environment for investment in China is becoming less predictable than before. Micron has said it would cooperate with the probe and that its shipments and operations in China remain unaffected.

☆ Democratic Denver mayor calls for Biden to share his physical health updates to make sure he's 'ready and fit to serve' ahead of 2024 race
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( Katie Balevic | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Denver Mayor Michael Hancock, a Democrat, called for Joe Biden to share more about his health. Hancock said he wants to make sure Biden is "ready and fit to serve" ahead of the 2024 election. Denver Mayor Michael Hancock said on NBC's "Meet the Press NOW" that he's "a fan" of Biden's but still wants to see the president be open about his health status. "I love Joe Biden personally and politically, but I want to make sure he's okay as well and ready and fit to serve," Hancock told NBC host Chuck Todd on Friday. —Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) April 22, 2023The report on Biden's health from physician Kevin O'Connor said Biden works out at least five days a week.

Postal Service for alleged religious discrimination is set for U.S. Supreme Court review on April 18, poses in an undated handout image taken at an unknown location. Postal Service over his refusal to work on Sundays gives the Supreme Court another chance to widen religious rights but also has led to a debate over whether religious people are more legally deserving than others to weekend days off from work. The court, with its 6-3 conservative majority, has a track record of expanding religious rights in recent years, often siding with Christian plaintiffs. The Postal Service in 2013, in a bid to remain profitable, contracted with Amazon.com to deliver packages, including on Sundays. His absences caused tension among other carriers who had to cover his shifts, the Postal Service said.

☆ Bank of America's top global strategist warns there's 'plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside' as 80% of recessions since 1933 have torpedoed stocks by 20% after they started
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Hartnett says S&P 500 EPS will fall by 16% in 2023, compared to the market's view of -4%. Some argue that stocks have already priced in a recession, having fallen 20% in 2022 (though the S&P 500 has rallied 8% year-to-date). He continued: "Plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside…since 1929, 2/3 of the S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns have occurred during, not before, US recessions." So whether we have an economic recession or not it isn't as important as the earnings recession," he said. Most strategists see a more mild decline in store for stocks, and most — including Wilson — see the S&P 500 finishing the year somewhere near 4,000.

☆ Here are 6 bullish surprises that could power the stock market through the rest of this year, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

There are six potential bull market surprises that could drive stocks higher, according to Bank of America. The bank highlighted the deflationary impact of ChatGPT and a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war. "Bearish sentiment + $5 trillion of cash [is] still the 'best friends forever' for risk assets, especially stocks," Hartnett said. These are the six bullish surprises that could fuel more upside in the stock market this year, according to BofA. If any of the surprises play out, it could help the economy avoid a recession or see a soft landing rather than a hard landing, according to Hartnett, ultimately boosting the stock market higher.

The ECB's systemic risk indicator for the United States, for example, has returned to its lowest level in a year. The near $400 billion that dashed for money funds after the Lehman Brothers bust in late 2008 - despite credit fears in some of those funds - had completely retreated by early 2010. The relative interest rate attraction of bills and repos after the steepest Fed rate rises in 40 years should make this year's flows far stickier - unless or until the Fed were to embark on some dramatic rate easing. Either way, there's now no shortage of savings in cash if or when the lights go green. by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Added chart from Andy Bruce; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank of America gives its best investing plays for the start of a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors need to prepare as signs build that a recession is coming, according to Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett. The "drumbeat of recession [is] getting ever louder," the investment strategist said in his weekly "Flow Show" note that looks at where money is moving. Hartnett's "best plays for start of recession" include Treasury bills, which he said outperform until the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates. In this case, Hartnett likes that play in anticipation that the Federal Reserve likely will have to begin easing as unemployment rises later in the year. And, of course, nothing lasts forever, so Hartnett advises investors to prepare a "shopping list" of things to buy when conditions change.

☆ Bank of America shares 12 charts that show that the economy is about to enter a full-blown recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There are growing signs the US economy is about to enter a full-blown recession, said Bank of America. The bank cited worrying signs in manufacturing and the jobs market, and said investors aren't paying attention to the risks. But so far, no recession has materialized as the jobs market and consumer spending have remained fairly resilient. Model is driven by Asian exports, global PMIs, China financial conditions, US yield curve," BofA said. Steepening yield curve often precedes a recessionBank of America"US Treasury 2-year/10-year yield curve flattens and inverts in anticipation of recession.

☆ RBC: Buy these 30 high-conviction stocks as they continue delivering market-beating returns in an up-and-down year
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

RBC's collection of 30 favorite global stocks handily outperformed US stocks in the first quarter. In the first quarter, that list of 30 stocks delivered an 11.9% total return, compared to a 7.7% return for the MSCI World Index and 7% for the S&P 500. The group also notes that since the end of 2020, the top 30 stocks have returned 37.8%, while the MSCI index has returned 24.5%. The following 30 stocks are ranked from lowest to highest based on how much RBC thinks they will deliver in returns over the next year. All of those implied upside figures were calculated based on the stocks' most recent closing prices.

☆ German business group wants Berlin to offer more protection in Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BERLIN, April 7 (Reuters) - German companies active in eastern European have called on the government in Berlin to take on more risk and provide increased security for business in Ukraine, particularly for transport. "The federal government has to take on more risk than usual," Harms said, and it "shouldn't relieve companies of business risk but should help with creative instruments." The association's demand follows German Economy Minister Robert Habeck's promise during a visit to Kyiv this week to provide German companies investment guarantees in Ukraine as part of reconstruction efforts. "Company representatives say that these investment guarantees are necessary in order to get investment decisions through the board of directors," said Harms, who travelled with Habeck to Kyiv. More than 20 applications for such investment guarantees are in the pipeline, ministry sources said.

☆ Bank of America lists its top stock picks for the second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With the start of the second quarter, Bank of America has a new list of short-term ideas for investors seeking clarity amid ongoing market volatility. The bank expects its Medicare Advantage plans to comprise two-thirds of the company's revenue growth for this year. The bank assigned a $650 price target on UnitedHealth, suggesting the stock could gain more than 31% from Tuesday's close. The bank expects even more gains for the stock, with its 12-month price target of $115 per share implying 11% upside from Tuesday's close of $103.58. Analysts at the bank aren't as bullish on CarMax Bank of America expects CarMax shares to shed 37% to its $40 per share price target.

☆ A credit crunch could worsen the bank turmoil and commercial real estate could be next domino to fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Odds are, commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for the banking sector after this month's unrest. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," BofA's Michael Hartnett said. Regional banks have enormous exposure to commercial real estate loans. But this time around, it is commercial rather than residential real estate that may be in trouble. Are you worried about the impact of commercial real estate on the banking sector and the economy?

☆ The stock market rally is over as commercial real estate risks begin to compound, JPMorgan's chief market strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock market rally is nearing its end as risks related to commercial real estate begin to rise, according to JPMorgan. The bank believes the highs for the stock market have been made in 2023, with further downside ahead. "Commercial real estate stresses appear to be compounding, amplified by banking shocks that could complicate their debt roll," Kolanovic warned. Kolanovic isn't the only one on Wall Street that's concerned about the sky-high debt pile that's coming due for commercial real estate. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said last week.

☆ Commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for regional banks and the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Commercial real estate is probably the next pain point for regional banks and the stock market, according to BofA. The bank noted that US regional banks account for 68% of all commercial real estate loans. The weakness in commercial real estate is evidenced in current market prices for stocks and debt tied to the sector. This is a perfect storm for regional banks because they have so much exposure to commercial real estate loans. According to Bank of America, US regional banks account for 68% of commercial real estate loans, much more than their mega-cap banking peers.

☆ BofA's Hartnett sees commercial real estate as the 'next shoe to drop'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Commercial real estate could be the next danger spot in the wobbly U.S. financial sector, according to Bank of America. One warning sign: Spreads for commercial mortgage-backed securities are at their widest compared with Treasurys since May 2020, said investment strategist Michael Hartnett. "CRE widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," Hartnett wrote in his weekly "Flow Show" report of where market money is gravitating. The last Federal Reserve Senior Loan Office Opinion Survey , in January, noted "significant net shares of banks" that reported tightening lending standards for commercial loans. The Bank Term Funding Program reported $53.7 billion in loans over the past month , while the discount window saw $110.2 billion.

☆ Mistakes by the US's top spies allowed China to turn a deadly mid-air collision into an intelligence coup
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( James Bamford | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +36 min

On April 1, 2001, a US EP-3 spy plane collided with a Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea. One of eleven left in the fleet, the tired 1960s-era spy plane bristled with porcupine-like antennas. Within minutes, however, the fighters had reached the lumbering spy plane, and while Zhao Yu hung back about a half-mile, Wang Wei rapidly closed in. In severe trouble, he immediately radioed the base, telling them he was unable to maneuver and being sucked in by the spy plane. "You are not allowed aboard the aircraft," Osborn said.

☆ Bank of America says the stock market's lows will be tested
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A notable Bank of America strategist said investors should fade any rebound in stocks off the government's efforts to backstop the banking system this week, as the S & P 500 's lows from last October will likely be revisited. "Stock lows to be tested one last time (in the) coming months," wrote Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America. After tumbling into a bear market, the S & P 500 is up 12% from its low last October. The emerging bank crisis this month stemming from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has put investors on edge before a key Federal Reserve decision on interest rates next week. .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, 6 months "Banking crises are followed by tighter lending standards and lower risk appetite," wrote Hartnett.

☆ Ex-fugitive in fraud scheme tied to $100 million NJ deli willing to pay millions for bail
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Dan Mangan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Watching from the gallery was Coker's mother, Susan, and his father, Peter Coker Sr., 80, who is also a defendant in the case. "He looks good," Susan Coker told her son's lawyers, John Azzaerello and Bill McGovern, afterward. Coker Jr. is "pretty much willing to stake every nickel he has" to be released on bond, Azzarello said. After the hearing, Azzarello told CNBC, "I don't think this case, by any means, requires pretrial detention." Coker Sr. and Patten, who were arrested in September after a grand jury indicted them and Coker Jr. on 12 criminal counts, each remain free on $100,000 bond.

March 14 (Reuters) - Satellite provider DirecTV on Tuesday sued Nexstar Media Group Inc (NXST.O) and two other television station owners in Manhattan federal court, claiming they violated antitrust law by scheming to drive up retransmission fees for stations broadcasting the four major networks. Pay-TV providers pay retransmission fees to station owners to broadcast their content. Twenty-seven stations owned by Mission and White Knight have been unavailable for DirecTV customers since October 2022 after they failed to agree on retransmission fees. Nexstar is expected to renegotiate its retransmission agreements with DirecTV, which is 70% owned by AT&T, possibly by later this year. The lawsuit said that by conspiring to set retransmission fees, the station groups forced providers and their customers "to pay supracompetitive prices or lose access to the most popular broadcast television programming."

☆ Analysis: SVB collapse unleashes Treasury volatility, whiplashing investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Carolina Mandl | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] Customers wait in line outside a branch of the Silicon Valley Bank in Wellesley, Massachusetts, U.S., March 13, 2023. REUTERS/Brian SnyderNEW YORK, March 14 (Reuters) - Extreme volatility is rattling U.S. Treasury markets in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank's (SIVB.O) collapse and investors fear a prolonged bout of gyrations before calm returns to bond markets. The Fed chief's hawkish message helped push yields, which move inversely to prices, to their highest levels in years. As investors piled back into Treasuries, yields plummeted. Over the longer term, sustained rate volatility is unlikely to be good for stocks, said Purves, of Tallbacken Capital.

☆ 2 top Wall Street strategists are warning that stocks are susceptible to more declines in March as investors anticipate weaker earnings and the Fed hurls the economy into recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Wilson sees a deterioration in earnings expectations developing in March. Two of Wall Street's most widely-followed strategist are warning that the month of March could see the unraveling of the stock market. For Wilson's part, he sees forward earnings expectations continuing to deteriorate despite recent optimism, and thinks that investors will start getting ahead of this turn sometime this month. Stocks tend to figure it out a month early and trade lower and this cycle has illustrated that pattern perfectly. Morgan StanleyWilson has also pointed out in recent notes that stocks remain historically overvalued relative to where bond yields are.

☆ Discount chains Ross, T.J. Maxx, and Burlington are planning to add more than 300 new stores. Here's why major retailers should be nervous about their growing off-price rivals.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Avery Hartmans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Off-price chains are likely to get a boost in the months ahead as shoppers seek low prices. Ross Stores is planning to open 100 new locations this year, while T.J. Maxx plans 150 openings, and Burlington as many as 80. 2023 is looking like a strong year for off-price chains like Burlington Stores, Ross Stores and T.J. Maxx, as shoppers look to save money where they can. Off-price chains could benefit from retail closures and bankruptciesAs other retailers close swaths of stores nationwide, discounters are expanding. Paul Weaver/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesAnalysts see a banner year ahead for BurlingtonBurlington may be the smallest of the major off-price retailers, but it's poised to have a big year.

☆ Brace for a 'wrathful Old-Testament-style' central bank reaction to sticky inflation that could cause a deep US recession, says JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Prepare for a more forceful "Old-Testament style" central bank reaction to stubborn inflation, JPMorgan economists say. "The risk of triggering a more wrathful Old-Testament style central bank reaction is on the rise," they said in a note. Such aggressive policy reaction could lead the US economy into a deeper recession later this year, they added. "The risk of triggering a more wrathful Old-Testament style central bank reaction is on the rise. Possible scenarios projected by the analysts include the Fed ending rate hikes next quarter, with its cumulative rate hikes of about 500 basis points since early 2022 leading to a US-concentrated recession later this year.

☆ The next bull market in stocks won't kick off until the Fed is forced to bail out the US government, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The next bull market in stocks won't happen until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to bail out the US government, according to Bank of America. BofA said that high rates will result in a staggering increase in interest payments on America's $31 trillion debt. The bank said US government debt is expected to soar by more than $21 trillion over the next 10 years. That's $5.2 billion every single day, or $218 million every single hour, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday note. "And that's when the next great bull market in risk begins," Hartnett said.

☆ There's a new most crowded trade on Wall Street — and it's not in the U.S.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The most crowded trade on Wall Street is "long China equities," according to the latest Bank of America Fund manager survey. Twenty-one percent of respondents to the February survey said that was the investment with the most enthusiasm... perhaps too much. Still, the "most crowded" trades in the survey, which is among the most followed on Wall Street, can stay that way for long stretches. Long China displaces "long U.S. dollar," which was the most crowded trade for the prior seven months in the survey. China equities traded in the U.S. were under pressure for a number of reasons, including the country's Covid lockdowns, as well as tighter scrutiny of its homegrown internet businesses.

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