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The basic theory behind prediction markets is that a lot of people with money on the line can better predict an outcome than any one expert. “Financial markets are generally pretty efficient, and the evidence suggests that the same is true of prediction markets,” Eric Zitzewitz, an economics professor at Dartmouth, tells me. The shares trade between $0 and $1, and once the event is resolved, shares tied to the correct outcome pay out a dollar. If you bought Trump shares on Monday, when they were 58 cents, you can expect to make 42 cents on the dollar. Later that fall, the popular betting market PredictIt gave Hillary Clinton an 82% chance of beating Donald Trump.
Persons: CNN Business ’, pollsters, Donald Trump’s, Trump, Kamala Harris, PredictIt, Eric Zitzewitz, , aren’t, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, You’re, Shayne Coplan, Harris, Coplan, ” Zitzewitz, , “ Brexit, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Clinton, Nate Silvers, Ann Selzers, FiveThirtyEight Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wednesday, , Dartmouth, Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, Trump, Bloomberg, CNBC, European Union Locations: New York, America, United Kingdom
Dollar winds down after volatile week, China NPC in focus
  + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar further unwound some of its sharp gains from earlier in the week as traders closed out profitable bets on a Trump presidency after his election victory. That helped lift sterling back toward the $1.30 mark, while the yen similarly got some respite and hovered closer to the 153 per dollar level. Sterling last traded $1.2983, recovering from its fall to a roughly three-month low earlier in the week. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar ticked up 0.03% to 104.44, on track to gain just above 0.1% for the week. "All eyes are on what may emerge from China's policy toolkit after the conclusion of the NPC standing committee meeting."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Kerry Craig, Trump, Wells, Jay Bryson, Sterling, David Chao Organizations: White, National People's Congress, Trump, Federal Reserve, Morgan Asset Management, Traders, Bank of England, NPC, New Zealand, Asia Pacific, European Union Locations: U.S, Beijing, Germany, Wells Fargo, Japan, Invesco
CNN —The Beatles earned their first Grammy nominations since 1997 on Friday. The iconic rock group was also recognized in the best rock performance category for the track. This year’s nods for “Now and Then” marks the first Beatles nominations since the late ’90s, when they won three Grammys in 1997. However, the Beatles aren’t the only classic rock ‘n rollers from that era to appear on this year’s list of Grammy nominees. They earned their first nod in 1978 for “Some Girls,” which was recognized for album of the year at the time.
Persons: Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish, , Paul McCartney, John Lennon, Lennon, McCartney, Ringo Starr, George Harrison –, , Mick Jagger, Keith Richards, Ronnie Wood Organizations: CNN, Beatles, Diamonds, Locations:
In the past decade, private investments exploded from $4 trillion to $14 trillion. Primarily led by institutional capital, investors poured money into private markets in their search for differentiated returns and alpha generation. This makes sense as alternative investments have consistently outperformed global public markets on 10-, 15-, and 20-year time horizons. As more companies stay private for longer, a portfolio limited to public companies inevitably will miss market opportunities. While private markets offer advantages of broader economic exposure, diversification and alpha generation, it is important to understand their differences from public markets.
Organizations: Bain, Private
BEIJING – China is widely expected to unveil more stimulus on Friday after its parliament ends a five-day meeting. President Xi Jinping led a meeting on Sept. 26 that called for strengthening fiscal and monetary support, and stopping the real estate market slump. While the People's Bank of China has already cut several interest rates, major increases in government debt and spending requires approval by the country's parliament, called the National People's Congress. Analysts expect an increase in the scale of fiscal support after Donald Trump — who has threatened harsh tariffs on Chinese goods — won the U.S. presidential election this week. When discussing planned fiscal support at a press conference last month, Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an emphasized the need to address local government debt problems.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Donald Trump —, , Finance Lan Fo'an Organizations: Hongkong, People's Bank of, People's Congress, U.S, Finance Locations: Shanghai, BEIJING – China, People's Bank of China, Beijing
Kendall VanGilder turned her eBay side hustle into a full-time business in 2024. She's made several strategic purchases that have helped her grow her business, including LED lights. Kendall VanGilder, who started listing apparel on eBay in 2022, turned the side hustle into a full-time business in 2024. As for inventory, "you can go into your closet or other places throughout your house and list things, and as long as you're making money on what you're listing, then you can take that money and reinvest it." Worthwhile purchases for a reseller: LED lights and a thermal printerVanGilder says two business-related purchases have been completely worth the money: LED lights and a thermal printer.
Persons: Kendall VanGilder, She's, , I've, VanGilder, that's Organizations: eBay, Service, Salvation Army, Urban, The Salvation Army, USPS Locations: TikTok, Cheapskate
Sonya Moore decided that if Trump won in 2016, she would leave the US. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Advertisement"If Trump wins this election, I'm moving out of the country." Trump won the election, and 9 months later, I left the US. After four months in India, I continued making my way through Asia for eight more months.
Persons: Sonya Moore, Trump, Moore, , I'm, uproot, Dalai Lama, I've, We've Organizations: Service, Trump Locations: Asia, Siem Reap, Cambodia, India, Dalai, Maldives, Bali, mountaintops, Laos, Philippines, Myanmar, Manhattan, COVID, France, Papua New Guinea, America
The fossil leg bone of an extinct terror bird that was found in Colombia's Tatacoa Desert is shown. While some terror bird fossils have been found in Florida and Texas, the specimen from La Venta is believed to be the northernmost terror bird from South America documented by scientists. Placing terror birds in La Venta “is one step closer to understanding how terror birds finally got to North America,” Degrange said. A map shows the countries in North America and South America (in gray) where terror bird fossils have been found. “We know that probably one of the drivers that led terror birds to get larger and larger was the competition between species of terror birds — but why that big?” he said.
Persons: , Federico Javier Degrange, Degrange, phorusrhacids, , ” Degrange, Karen Moreno, Moreno, ” Moreno, , Mindy Weisberger Organizations: CNN, National University of Córdoba, Museo, Apex, National Monuments Council, Austral University of Chile’s Institute of Earth Sciences, Scientific Locations: Colombia, La, Palaeontology, Argentina, South America, what’s, Brazil, Venta, Florida, Texas, La Venta, North America, Chile
Author Minda Harts said that stars like Issa Rae inspire her as she steps into Hollywood. Harts, whose debut novel was recently adapted into a short film, said that networking is key to her success. That book led to a short film adaptation, an upcoming psychological thriller about the workplace starring "The Proud Family" actor Kyla Pratt as Harts. Like Rae, Harts wants to diversify her portfolio. If we all can ask ourselves that in every part of the production process, then I think we'll have a more equitable Hollywood," Harts said.
Persons: Minda Harts, Issa Rae, Harts, it's, , Kyla Pratt, Rae, Marla Aufmuth, Valeisha Butterfield, Johnny Nunez, WireImage Harts, Dalvin Adams Harts, Reese Witherspoon, Witherspoon, Daisy Jones, She's, Reese Organizations: Hollywood, Service, YouTube, America, Seed Media, Arts Productions, Texas Conference, Women Locations: Vegas, Hollywood, Harts
Bitcoin is just getting started after its postelection rally, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee, and is still on track to hit six figures by the end of the year. "I think because [it's] post-halving and now bitcoin is becoming a lot more relevant ... the regulatory overhang is diminishing — that there's a lot of upside from here." The flagship cryptocurrency climbed to fresh records this week after President-elect Donald Trump' s victory, which was widely anticipated as a bullish catalyst for the crypto industry at large. During Trump's campaign for reelection he promised the crypto industry a more favorable regulatory environment that would include appointing a more crypto-friendly leader to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission. Bitcoin is up 79% this year, compared with the S & P 500's 25% gain.
Persons: Bitcoin, Tom Lee, Donald Trump, It's, Lee, JD Vance, Vivek Ramaswamy, Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick, Robert Kennedy Jr, it's, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Biden, Gary Gensler Organizations: Treasury, Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC
Tesla and a handful of other so-called Trump trades led the market rally this week as investors welcomed the Republican's victory in the presidential election. Excluding stocks that reported earnings this week, some of the best performers were those viewed as tied to Donald Trump 's win. Trump trades can earn that title by being part of sectors such as financials or energy viewed as beneficiaries of his expected shifts away from regulation, among other things. CNBC screened for the Trump trade names that led the index higher this week and did not report earnings. The electric vehicle maker is one of the best-known Trump trades given CEO Elon Musk 's advocacy for the president-elect on the campaign trail.
Persons: Tesla, Donald Trump, Trump, Elon Musk, LSEG, John Murphy, Murphy, Elon Musk's, Baker Hughes Organizations: Trump, Monday, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Bank of America Locations: Texas
He finds it easier to date older women now but is also content to be alone. He says dating older women means there's no pressure to talk about having children. It wasn't necessarily a conscious decision, but several influences probably contributed to my never having children with the women I dated. It's not just the idea of having kids I've let go as I have gotten older — I also no longer feel forced to have a serious relationship. But now that I'm decidedly not having children and my age has eased, the pressure to be in a relationship has eased.
Persons: Brian Gross, , I've, I'm, didn't, It's, it's Organizations: Service Locations: Angeles
It's not cheap, though, so the ongoing Ergatta Black Friday sale is a can't miss chance to score your very own. Even though the month of November only just started, Ergatta has kicked off its Black Friday sale, offering shoppers up to $850 off its elite-level rowers and bundles. View at ErgattaLimited-Time Deal Ergatta Lite Rower $1,399.00 $1,799.00 Save 22% The Ergatta Lite Rower offers the brand's game-like rowing experience and beautiful design with a smaller footprint and lower price. View at ErgattaThe Ergatta Rower is down to $1,899 plus free shipping (usually $150) and a bonus $100 Ergatta Apparel Gift Card. The Ergatta Lite is also $400 off and down to $1,399 also with free shipping and the gift card.
Persons: Ergatta, Price Organizations: Business, Ergatta
A sign is displayed outside a Toyota Motor Corp. dealership on Jan. 30, 2024 in Tokyo, Japan. Tomohiro Ohsumi | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesDETROIT — Toyota Motor sounded the alarm Friday that California-led electric vehicle mandates that are set to start next year are "impossible" to meet and, if they're not changed, will lead to less customer choice in several states. Battery-electric, fuel cell and, to an extent, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles qualify as zero emission under the regulations. At this point, it looks impossible," Jack Hollis, chief operating officer of Toyota Motor North America, said during a virtual media roundtable Friday. Several automotive insiders previously told CNBC that the EV mandate issue needed to be addressed regardless of who won election this year.
Persons: Tomohiro Ohsumi, they're, ZEV, Battery, Jack Hollis, Power, Hollis Organizations: Toyota Motor Corp, Getty, DETROIT, Toyota, California Air, Toyota Motor North, California Air Resources, D.C, CNBC Locations: Tokyo, Japan, California, Toyota Motor North America, Washington, Colorado, New York, New Mexico, Rhode
CNN —Ancient DNA has revealed surprises about the identities of some people who perished in the ancient Roman town of Pompeii after a volcanic eruption, overturning misconceptions about their genetic relationships, ancestry and sex. Ash and volcanic rock called pumice then covered Pompeii and its residents, preserving scenes of the victims of the city’s destruction like an eerie time capsule. While the Greeks, Etruscans and Samnites attempted to conquer it, Pompeii became a Roman colony, the study authors noted. In 2015, the Archaeological Park of Pompeii began efforts to restore 86 of the 104 casts originally made by Fiorelli. Together, park scientists and the study authors are working on a larger project to better understand the genetic diversity present in Pompeii during the Roman Empire.
Persons: Giuseppe Fiorelli, , David Reich, restorers, David Caramelli, Massimo Osanna, Gabriel Zuchtriegel, Valeria Amoretti, ” Caramelli, Reich, Steven Tuck, Tuck, ” Tuck, Caitie Barrett, Barrett, Homer’s “, Bacchus, Alissa Mittnik, , ” Barrett, Michael Anderson, Anderson, ” Anderson Organizations: CNN, Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, University of Florence, Villa, Miami University in, Cornell University, Max Planck Institute, Evolutionary Anthropology, Harvard, San Francisco State University Locations: Pompeii, Naples, what’s, Italy’s Campania, Roman, Italy, Miami University in Ohio, archaeogenetics, Britain, North Africa, Alexandria, Egypt, Bay
The paintings depict British computer scientist, mathematician and codebreaker Alan Turing. “There’s a slightly apocalyptic view of AI art wiping out everybody. for good’ which led to Ai-Da bringing up Alan Turing as a key person in the history of A.I. “’AI God,’ a portrait of pioneer Alan Turing, invites viewers to reflect on the god-like nature of AI and computing while considering the ethical and societal implications of these advancements. Alan Turing recognised this potential, and stares at us, as we race towards this future,” the robot added.
Persons: Alan Turing, , Ai, Aidan Meller, Turing, Meller, , Alastair Sooke, Pablo Picasso, ” Ai, Da, she’s, , Turing’s, Sotheby’s Organizations: CNN, British Locations: New York, British, Cornwall, England, Turing’s
Mascia had been patrolling westbound, State Police Superintendent Steven James said a week ago. Mascia claimed that as he approached the motorist, he was shot, so he retreated behind his police vehicle and the driver fled, James said. Mascia tended to his wound, James said, and called in to report that he had been shot. This week, as part of its investigation, state police executed a warrant at the home Mascia shares with his family on Long Island. Neither the State Police nor the district attorney’s office would disclose what led them to doubt Mascia’s story.
Persons: ” Maj, Stephen Udice, Trooper Thomas Mascia, Mascia, Steven James, James, James said, Udice, “ I’m, ” Udice, , , Anne Donnelly, Jeffrey Lichtman, Joaquín Guzmán Loera, Chapo Organizations: New York State Police, State Police, Southern State Parkway, State, Dodge, Police, Nassau County District Locations: West Hempstead, Nassau County, Manhattan, New Jersey, Long
If chosen, Wiles would become the first female White House chief of staff in history. “The team of rivals concept did not apply here.”"Susie is as good as they get," a second Trump campaign official said. A third Trump campaign official said Wiles is already playing the de-facto chief of staff role and that staffers widely want her to get the job. “She would be everybody’s number one pick, but it’s his decision,” the first campaign official said. Other names actively under consideration for the White House chief of staff role include Brooke Rollins, a former top White House aide to Trump who now leads the Trump-aligned America First Policy Institute, and former House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Susie Wiles, Wiles, , Susie, She'd, Trump, , I’m, Trump's, Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick, Linda McMahon, Pat Summerall, they’ve, ” Trump, Matt Gaetz, Lutnick, Butler , Pennsylvania —, McMahon, Brooke Rollins, Kevin McCarthy, Rollins, McCarthy Organizations: White, Trump, NBC, Democratic, White House, Policy Institute, Fox News Locations: Thurday, American, Florida, Butler , Pennsylvania
A robot that has spent months inside the ruins of a nuclear reactor at Japan's tsunami-hit Fukushima Daiichi plant delivered a tiny sample of melted nuclear fuel on Thursday, in what plant officials said was a step toward beginning the cleanup of hundreds of tons of melted fuel debris. Employees of Tokyo Electric Power Company load a transportation box containing fuel debris from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. A device to remove debris from a reactor at the damaged Fukushima nuclear plant. The sample return marks the first time the melted fuel is retrieved out of the containment vessel. An estimated 880 tons of fatally radioactive melted fuel remains in them.
Persons: Akira Ono, That’s, Telesco Organizations: Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Plant, Employees, Tokyo Electric Power, Inc, TEPCO, Kyodo Locations: Fukushima, AFP
A look at the factors that led Donald Trump to victory and Kamala Harris to an election loss. A fast-growing wildfire spreads in California. How Trump won and Harris lost the electionThe analysis of President-elect Donald Trump's victory over Vice President Kamala Harris began before Election Day had ended. But Donald Trump’s presidential election victory injects new uncertainty into what happens long-term. Fast-moving wildfire tears through California communityA wildfire in Southern California quickly grew to over 14,000 acres, sending firefighters rushing to get residents out of homes and to safety, officials said.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, Harris, Donald Trump's, Joe Biden, , Biden, Donald Trump’s, Trevor Johnson, Johnson, Ryan Sun, Steve Ballmer's, they’re, — Andrew Greif, Elizabeth Robinson Organizations: NBA, Trump, Republicans, Howard University, Biden, Republican, NBC, , Federal, Wall, “ Firefighters, Intuit, Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix Suns, Steve Ballmer's Los Angeles Clippers Locations: California, Southern California, Ventura County, Santa Ana, Moorpark, Inglewood , California
Hong Kong CNN —Ye Kunkun spent 398 yuan (about $56) on a special iced Americano at a rural café in southeastern China. Xue Ke, the café owner, told CNN that they receive about 50 visitors on weekdays and double that on weekends. Xue Ke, the owner of Gushi Cliff Coffee, climbs on the cliff face. “This was one of my considerations when choosing the site.”Coastal views near Gushi Cliff Coffee in Fuzhou, southeastern China. While both Ye and Lin were satisfied with the service, they paused when it came to the price tag.
Persons: Ye Kunkun, Ye, rungs, , ” Ye, Coffee, Cliff, , Xue Ke, Cliff Coffee, Xue, , Spiderman, Lin Jiaxin, ” Lin Jiaxin, ” Lin, wilder, Lin, I’ll Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Americano, CNN, China’s, Golden Locations: Hong Kong, China, it’s, – Gushi, Fuzhou, Fujian, Cliff, Taiwan Strait, Taiwan, Gushi Cliff Coffee
Maansi Srivastava for NBC NewsMaansi Srivastava for NBC NewsTrump embraced that narrative in his victory speech in Florida early Wednesday. About 80% of white evangelicals backed Trump in Tuesday’s election, the NBC News Exit Poll shows. During his first term in office, Trump and his staff welcomed Christian leaders, including Sheets, to the White House. Julia Demaree Nikhinson / APJohnson and others who shared that worldview were on hand for Trump’s victory speech at a convention center in West Palm Beach, Florida. Around 3 a.m., he recorded as those gathered to celebrate Trump’s victory began to sing a classic Christian hymn.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Lance Wallnau, Donald Trump, Carlos Bernate, , Wallnau, ” Trump, “ You’re, Trump, God, Maansi Srivastava, NBC News Maansi Srivastava, Silvia Barnaby, Britney Barnaby, Matthew Taylor, Taylor, Christian Trump, ” Taylor, Dutch Sheets, NBC News Sheets, ” Sheets, Mike Johnson, Julia Demaree Nikhinson, Johnson, Sean Feucht, Feucht Organizations: America, NBC, Trump, NBC News, NBC News Trump, White, Institute, Islamic, Jewish Studies, Christian Trump loyalists, U.S . Capitol, Dutch, Christian, Wade, Republican, Facebook Locations: America, Washington, Florida, Tuesday’s, Maryland, Virginia Beach, Va, Roe, Louisiana, West Palm Beach, Fla, West Palm Beach , Florida, Christian
A Donald Trump presidency and Republican-controlled Senate could boost big banks, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Betsy Graseck. The analyst highlighted four big banks investors should look toward: Citigroup, Goldman Sachs , Wells Fargo and Bank of America . The acceleration in capital markets should benefit all the big banks, and Goldman Sachs is set to benefit the most, she noted. Meanwhile, Citigroup is most exposed to tailwinds from higher excess capital levels as a Republican-led government is unlikely to raise current capital requirements. She estimates this will result in an $86 billion jump in current excess capital for the big banks in the firm's coverage.
Persons: Donald Trump, Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck, financials, Financials, Graseck, Goldman Sachs, Wells, Goldman Organizations: Republican, Trump, House Republicans, Citigroup, Bank of America Locations: Wells Fargo, Basel
The Federal Reserve would likely respond to inflation by raising interest rates to curb demand. In an economic chain reaction, households would then pay higher interest rates on borrowing of all kinds as the Fed moves to tame that newly rekindled inflation. That led to the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rising, meaning homebuyers are on track to see higher interest rates on loans. An analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center found that Trump's policies would decrease posttax incomes by an average of $1,800 in 2025. Trump's win is also expected to influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions on interest rates.
Persons: Donald Trump, , Trump, Ramping, Trump's, it's, Jerome Powell, Joseph Stiglitz Organizations: Federal, Service, Biden, US Census Bureau, Trump, Peterson, Center, American Progress, Tax Foundation, Fed Locations: China
Taking a quick jog or bike ride instead of sitting all day may reduce blood pressure, research suggests. Gentle exercise routines like walking and tai chi can also reduce stress and lower blood pressure. Using their own model to estimate how different activities impact blood pressure, they concluded that small changes could do a long way. Adding more activity helped to lower blood pressure even more: 10 to 20 minutes of exercise daily reduced blood pressure enough to lower heart disease risk by about 10%, according to the researchers' estimates. AdvertisementTai chi has also been found to lower blood pressure as effectively as cardio.
Persons: , Jo Blodgett, Emmanuel Stamatakis Organizations: Service, University College London, University of Sydney, American Heart Association Locations: Australia, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands
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