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CNN —Wall Street bankers, investors and economists have for months waffled over whether a US recession is coming. But for some Americans, the unforgiving economic pain typical during recession has already set in. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic output, so if more Americans are forced to cut back because they were laid off, that might throw the US economy into a recession. Bank of America Chief Executive Brian Moynihan told CNN last week that he expects a mild recession early next year, rather than the late 2022 recession many have predicted. That means that laid-off Americans were often able to find a new job quickly due to a hot job market.

Persons: Al Brown, Brown, it’s, ” Brown, That’s, Allison Joyce, haven’t, Nina McCollum, hasn’t, She’s, ” McCollum, ”, Thomas Simons, ” Simons, Eva Marie Uzcategui, —, Timothy A, Clary, Brian Moynihan, frustrates McCollum, Regina Walton, Walton, she’s, “ It’s, I’ve, ” Walton, “, I’m, Richard Murray, Murray, he’s, you’re Organizations: CNN, Wall, Flyers, New, New Hanover NCWorks, Workforce, Bloomberg, Getty, Investors, Jefferies, National Bureau of Economic Research, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Bank of America, San Francisco Bay Area, Companies, Consolidated Omnibus Budget, Cascade Locations: Concord , North Carolina, America, New Hanover, Wilmington , North Carolina, Cleveland , Ohio, Miami , Florida, AFP, San Francisco Bay, “, Boston

☆ What the stock market is saying about when to expect a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-02 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

As the economy proved more resilient than expected, and the US has avoided recession so far, the case for a 2023 recession has been crumbling. The stock market, which entered bull market territory just a few weeks ago, has shown little sign this year that the economy could be headed for a downturn. Still, the bond market tells a different story: The New York Federal Reserve’s recession probability model calculates the probability that the US will enter a recession in the next 12 months by tracking the spread of 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields. US stock market closes early at 1 p.m. Tuesday: US stock market closed for July Fourth.

Persons: Brian Moynihan, “ We’re, ”, David Grecsek, Jerome Powell, it’s, “ we’re, Russell, Outflows, Brian Mulberry, Tim Courtney, Courtney ., “, Niño, Samantha Delouya, El Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, CNN, Vanguard, JPMorgan Chase, Investors, Fed, Investment Company Institute, Zacks Investment Management, New, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Exencial Wealth, Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, PMI, Labor Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, El

☆ Premarket stocks: Why Wall Street is bullish on beaten-down energy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Analysis Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York (CNN) Some investors are turning bullish on energy stocks, despite their disappointing performance this year and some major challenges facing Big Oil. But energy stocks have fallen 7.8% this year, compared to a gain of 14.5% for the S&P 500. Why are energy stocks down? The energy sector rose about 59% last year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent commodity prices skyrocketing. There are two main reasons why investors are keen on energy stocks: They're priced attractively, and the companies are making money.

Persons: It'sthe, Jay Rhame, Eric Diton, Catherine Thorbecke Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, International Energy Agency, Asset Management, Brent, West, downer, Federal Reserve, Apple, Nvidia, ExxonMobil XOM Energy, Chevron, Wealth Alliance Locations: New York, Ukraine, Europe, West Texas, China, India

☆ Russian ruble briefly reaches 15-month low after Wagner rebellion
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

New York CNN —Russia’s currency hit its lowest level in nearly 15 months on Monday after Wagner mercenaries led a short-lived rebellion against the Kremlin over the weekend. The ruble briefly traded at around 87 per US dollar before paring back some of its losses, last trading at around 84.40 against the greenback. The ruble stayed surprisingly resilient for most of last year, buoyed by the Russian central bank’s aggressive interest rate hikes and capital controls. It almost halved in value when Russia invaded Ukraine last February, trading at over 100 rubles against the dollar. While the ruble has recovered its losses since then, its relationship to the dollar has remained volatile and is down almost 25% so far this year.

Persons: Wagner, Brent Organizations: New, New York CNN, Kremlin, greenback, Texas Intermediate, Reuters Locations: New York, Russian, Russia, Ukraine

☆ Are investors ignoring the Federal Reserve’s warning?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-25 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

CNN —Stocks fell last week as several signs pointed to the Federal Reserve continuing to hike rates this year. The Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, is derived from S&P 500 index options prices and measures volatility expectations. Meanwhile, the May Producer Price Index showed that inflation at the wholesale level cooled to below its pre-pandemic average. Tuesday: Case-Shiller home price index and new home sales. Friday: May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and University of Michigan June consumer sentiment and inflation expectations final reading.

Persons: CNN — Stocks, Jerome Powell, BoE, Tom Graff, Price, ”, Graff, it’s, Liz Young, Gina Bolvin, Bitcoin, Charles Schwab Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Bank of England, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bolvin Wealth Management, “, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, BlackRock, EDX, Fidelity Digital Assets, Citadel, Index, University of Michigan

☆ Bitcoin price hits its highest level in a year
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

CNN —Bitcoin on Friday shot up to its highest level in about a year. The cryptocurrency rose above $31,400 a coin on Friday, its highest level since 2022, before paring back its gains. BlackRock last week applied to register a bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund, according to a US Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Crypto exchange EDX Markets, backed by firms such as Charles Schwab, Fidelity Digital Assets and Citadel, also launched its digital asset trading platform this week. The SEC earlier this month sued Coinbase, the US’s largest crypto exchange, alleging that it is acting as an unregistered broker.

Persons: CNN — Bitcoin, Bitcoin, Charles Schwab, Coinbase, bitcoin Organizations: CNN, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, BlackRock, US Securities and Exchange Commission, Fidelity Digital Assets, Citadel, SEC, Federal Locations: United States

☆ Small stocks are cheap and finally joining the market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Small cap stocks are domestic bellwethers, since smaller companies generate most of their revenue from US customers. Investors say that recent gains in small caps are helping prop up the burgeoning bull market, even as a potential economic downturn draws near. Cheap buysNow, the rally in small caps suggests that Wall Street is optimistic about the economy’s health. Some investors say cheap valuations and and hopes for a muted economic downturn means small caps look more attractive than they have in months. Optimism about the economyThe small caps’ rally is also an auspicious sign for the broader economy, says Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.

Persons: they’ve, Rambus, ”, John Ragard, Quincy Krosby, Russell, Francis Gannon, Anna Rathbun Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Shockwave, Management, LPL, Penn Capital Management, Royce Investment Partners, Federal Reserve, CBIZ Investment Advisory Services Locations: New York, That’s

☆ Bull market or fool's market? Investors say the latter
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-18 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Mega-cap tech stocks that were battered by rising interest rates in 2022 have also seen a huge boost this year. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held interest rates steady but indicated that it could hike rates twice more this year. Tech stocks’ record runApple shares closed at a record high on Thursday, creeping closer to reaching a $3 trillion market capitalization. The rally’s next testDespite some bullish signs in the market, investors say the math isn’t adding up to a sustained rally — especially considering a possible recession looms on the horizon. The central bank last Wednesday paused interest rates and indicated that it could raise rates two more times this year.

Persons: Dow, ”, Amanda Agati, Wednesday’s, Stocks, Joe Biden, Dan Ives, “, ” Ives, Richard Steinberg, Jerome Powell, Agati, Sylvia Jablonski, Christopher Waller, Thomas Barkin, ” Waller, Sarah Henry, Henry, Here’s, Price, Refinitiv, Paul Eitelman, ” Eitelman Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Apple, Nasdaq, PNC Financial Services, Management, “, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Wedbush Securities, Microsoft, The Colony, Treasury, ”, Federal, Richmond Fed, Logan Capital Management, CPI, PPI, University of, Consumers, North America, Russell Investments, Wednesday, National Association of Realtors, Senate Locations: New York, what’s, Oslo

☆ Stock market news: The Fed meets next week. What can investors expect?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-11 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The S&P 500 Index last week entered a bull market, meaning that it notched a 20% rally from its low in October. Moreover, investors appeared calmer than they have in years, after the United States suspended the debt ceiling in time to avoid a default, allowing investors to breathe a sigh of relief. The May Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports, two key inflation prints, are also due the days that the Fed meets. But the United States could still suffer a downgrade to its credit rating, even though it avoided losing its ability to make payments on time. Tuesday: Consumer Price Index report for May and NFIB small business optimism index.

Persons: CNN — Stocks, Price, ”, JJ Kinahan, there’s, Karim El Nokali, Jerome Powell, ” El Nokali, —, Joe Biden, Benjamin Jeffery, Patrick Klein, ” Josh Lipsky, it’s, Olivier d’Assier, “ It’s, George Mateyo Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Nasdaq, United, Fed, IG North America, Fitch, AAA, BMO Capital Markets, Franklin, GeoEconomics, International Monetary Fund, Treasury Department, US Treasury, Key Private Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Federal, University of Michigan Locations: United States, US

☆ The S&P 500 broke out above a key level. Now what?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-04 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —The S&P 500 index on Friday closed at its highest level in almost a year. The S&P 500 ended last week up 1.8% at about 4,282, marking its best weekly gain since late March. Now that the index has managed to breach the top level of resistance, that raises the question: Does this rally have legs? An equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 is up only about 1.5% for the year. The good news is that the S&P 500 will likely return to trading within the 3,800 - 4,200 range, meaning any downside — at least in the short term — will likely be limited, according to Turnquist.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, —, José Torres, Adam Turnquist, “ There’s, ”, ” Bitcoin, Saqib Iqbal, ” Iqbal, bitcoin, Iqbal, Smucker Compan, Baker Hughes Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal Reserve, Interactive, LPL, Treasury Department, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Trading.biz

☆ Dow surges over 700 points as investors cheer jobs report and debt ceiling deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —The Dow surged over 700 points mid-afternoon Friday as investors applauded Congress’s passage of the debt ceiling deal and celebrated a cheerful jobs report. The blue-chip index soared 734 points, or 2.2%, putting it on track for the best daily gain since November 2022. A mixed May jobs report also helped boost stocks. “The May jobs report is a particularly difficult one for the Fed to parse,” Bank of America economists wrote in a Friday note. “We think the May jobs report is just soft enough to justify a hold.”

Persons: —, ”, Keith Lerner Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow, Nasdaq, Senate, Advisory Services . Futures, ” Bank of America Locations: New York, United States

☆ Why does Wall Street expect a rate hike in June?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in June. Not only that, it finally believes the central bank when it says it likely won’t cut rates this year. Futures traders expected a roughly 66% chance of a quarter point rate hike in June as of Friday afternoon, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That’s a drastic about-face from even earlier this month, when Wall Street expected the central bank to slash rates multiple times this year starting as early as this summer. “If it comes in hotter than expected, it almost locks a rate hike in” for June, said Heppenstall.

☆ Could the Fed raise rates again in June?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-21 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Traders saw a roughly 36% chance last Thursday that the Fed will raise rates by another quarter point in June, up from around 15.5% on May 12, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Traders pared down their expectations to about a 18.6% chance that the central bank will raise rates next month, as of Friday evening. Experts seem to agree that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates again in June. Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, also expects the Fed to hold rates steady in June. Dimon said in the same Bloomberg interview that he’d “love to get rid of the debt ceiling thing” altogether.

☆ Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman to step down within next 12 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

New York CNN —Morgan Stanley chief executive James Gorman will step down as the company’s head within the next 12 months, he said Friday at the bank’s annual shareholder meeting. He will assume the role of executive chairman for “a period of time” to help Morgan Stanley transition to its next era of leadership, Gorman, 64, said. The board of directors has three senior internal candidates in the pipeline to potentially take over as the next chief executive. Gorman also said that he believes Morgan Stanley is well insulated from turmoil in the banking sector after the collapses of three regional lenders. “I remain extraordinarily optimistic about the future Morgan Stanley and broader economy.”Shares of Morgan Stanley fell 0.9% on Friday.

☆ Regional bank stocks soar after Western Alliance says deposits are growing
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: 1 min

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during a news conference at the Treasury Department in Washington on April 11. (Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters)It’s still likely that the US could default on its obligations early next month – possibly as soon as June 1 – if Congress doesn’t act, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated Monday. President Joe Biden is expected to meet again on Tuesday with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other top congressional leaders. Still, the actual date could be a number of days or weeks later, depending on how much revenue the federal government collects and how much it has to pay out in coming weeks, Yellen said. Yellen once again urged Congress to act as soon as possible, noting that Treasury’s borrowing costs have increased substantially for securities maturing in early June.

☆ Stocks week ahead: SVB and Signature Bank execs are set to testify next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs is holding three hearings this coming week centered around the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March. ET : Greg Becker, former chief executive, Silicon Valley Bank; Scott Shay, former chairman and co-founder, Signature Bank and Eric Howell, former president, Signature Bank. ET : Mark Bialek, inspector general, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; Paul Kupiec, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute and more. Since then, the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation have released reports detailing management missteps at SVB and Signature Bank, as well as federal regulators’ own mistakes in properly addressing red flags preceding the banks’ demises. A separate report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Friday shows that American households are becoming increasingly frugal.

☆ The Fed likely won't cut rates this year. Why that's good news for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Although a pause in interest rate hikes appears likely, cuts may be farther off than some believe. Still, investors have remained hyper-alert for signs that the central bank could let up its brisk clip of interest rate increases. The central bank also opened the door to a pause, accelerating bets that the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting in June and cut rates as soon as July. The Fed is unlikely to cut rates in JulyExperts say that the Fed won’t cut rates anytime soon for two key reasons: Inflation remains sticky, and the economy has stayed strong. that’s not to say that a Fed rate cut this year is completely out of the cards, says Nicole Webb, senior vice president at Wealth Enhancement Group.

☆ Novavax says it is axing 25% of its workforce to cut costs
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

New York CNN —Novavax is laying off 25% of its workforce to slash expenses, the biotech company said Tuesday. Still, the Maryland-based company said it’s focused on updating its Covid vaccine for the fall vaccine season, citing a modified US government agreement for up to 1.5 million additional doses of its Covid vaccine for delivery this year. Novavax expects its broader cost reduction plan, which also includes measures to consolidate facilities and infrastructure, to cut costs by 40% to 50% compared to the previous fiscal year. The US public health emergency is set to end on May 11, meaning Americans could have to start paying out of pocket for Covid testing and treatment. Novavax is the latest company to reduce its headcount to cut costs as companies brace for a possible recession and scale back their workforce after pandemic-era hiring sprees.

☆ Wall Street’s still worried despite Friday’s fakeout
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

In other words, Wall Street still has concerns about the banking sector’s health, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory and the possibility of recession. Key inflation reports aheadThe April Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index are on deck for next week. The Fed on Wednesday raised interest rates by a quarter point and opened the door to a pause later this year. Wednesday: April Consumer Price Index and earnings report from Disney (DIS). Thursday: April Producer Price Index, mortgage rates and jobless claims.

☆ Western Alliance denies ‘shameful’ report it’s the next bank for sale
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Western Alliance Bank denied reports that it’s exploring a sale or has hired an advisor to explore strategic options. Shares of the regional bank tumbled 36% Thursday, slightly paring back its losses after plunging over 50% at one point on reports that the company is the regional bank latest to explore a potential sale. The Financial Times, citing two anonymous sources, reported Thursday that the Arizona-based bank is exploring strategic options. “This story is absolutely false, there is no truth to this,” a Western Alliance spokesperson told CNN in an email. Western Alliance is not exploring a sale, nor has it hired an advisor to explore strategic option.

While a debt default doesn't mean all payments would stop, it could unleash economic and fiscal chaos around the world:Financial marketsAmericans' investments would take a direct hit. That's on top of the increased costs Americans are already facing from the Fed's rate hikes. That's because their costs of borrowing money will also rise, which limits the amount of money they can lend out. The economyA debt default could trigger an economic downturn, which would prompt a spike in unemployment. But if the impasse dragged on for six weeks, then more than 7 million jobs would be lost and the unemployment rate would soar above 8%.

☆ JPMorgan could be the banking sector’s biggest hero — or biggest risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

And as the bank swells in size, so does the potential risk it poses to the nation’s financial system. Some experts say they’re concerned that JPMorgan’s continued intervention during times of crisis has broader implications for the banking sector, the US financial system and its regulation. And with every failed bank that JPMorgan snaps up, the conundrum becomes clearer: JPMorgan is essentially the biggest risk to the financial system — and every time it expands to uphold the sector’s stability, so does its risk to the financial system. It has “that ability once again, to signal to the world that JPMorgan is a fortress, JPMorgan is the ultimate. But recent failures and the missteps that led to them indicate that deep flaws underline the financial system.

☆ Dow slides by almost 600 points as bank shares nosedive
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

The Dow fell about 550 points, or 1.6% by midday Tuesday. Western Alliance Bank fell about 16.3% and New York Community Bancorp declined 6.6%. Wells Fargo fell 3.9%, Citigroup slipped 2.3% and Bank of America declined 3.6%. Since investors are already expecting a quarter-point rate hike on Wednesday, Fed commentary will be the focus for markets, Eye said. Investors will be watching for clues about the state of credit conditions following three bank failures, as well as about the Fed’s planned trajectory for future rate hike decisions.

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