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But what appeared to garner a lot more attention was the 0.3% monthly rise of the core CPI gauge, which excludes food and energy. The higher-than-expected rise in core inflation will likely cause central bank officials to proceed more carefully when deciding whether to cut interest rates and by how much. On Tuesday, traders were pricing in a 34% chance the Fed would cut rates by a half point. But after the CPI data was released Wednesday morning, traders priced in a 15% chance that would happen. Wednesday’s market moves are a stark contrast to Monday’s, when the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all closed 1.2% higher.
Persons: clamoring, Dow Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq Locations: New York
CNN —It was the Instagram endorsement read ‘round the world: Pop superstar Taylor Swift backs Kamala Harris for president. Swift’s support for Harris and voter registration will likely have some impact, but not as much as some would hope. That said, Harris and the Democratic Party are struggling with young voters and voter registration, so they’ll take any help they can get. Let’s start out with what we know about Swift’s post. An examination of Google trends revealed a spike in searches for voter registration after Swift’s post, a Washington Post analysis found.
Persons: Taylor Swift, Kamala Harris, Swift’s, Harris, Let’s, Swift, Donald Trump, “ Swifties, That’s, Joe Biden, Biden, won’t, Phil Bredesen, Bredesen Organizations: CNN, Democratic Party, General Services Administration, Republicans, Swift, GOP, Grinnell College, Fox Locations: Swift’s, Washington, Arizona , Nevada , North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Harris
Stubbornly high core inflation virtually cemented the likelihood of a quarter percentage point cut from the Federal Reserve, which historically has avoided larger moves unless absolutely necessary. Shelter inflation is putting a floor under the CPI and likely keeping the Fed from reducing interest rates by more 25 basis points. "History back to 1990 supports the idea that an initial Fed rate cut of 50 basis points signals an imminent recession (2001 and 2007). "Their first cut will almost certainly be 25 basis points," Colas said. But the Fed, which targets inflation at 2%, prefers core readings as a better longer-term gauge for inflation.
Persons: Dow Jones, , Nick Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, That's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, CPI, Fed, Traders, Open Market, PCE
According to Bank of America, one area of the market is set to benefit from increased market volatility: quality stocks, or stocks with strong business models and financial fundamentals. And the cherry on top is that quality stocks — which typically become expensive during downturns — are still cheap despite their recent rally, coming out of a two-decade rut. As seen in the graph below, the high-quality factor serves as a hedge against elevated market volatility. Bank of AmericaQuality is still cheapLuckily for investors, this safe-haven area of the stock market is trading at an attractive valuation. Bank of AmericaWhile quality stocks have recently re-rated to a slight premium, they're still reasonably priced, according to Bank of America.
Persons: , Subramanian, Financials, Schwab Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, PMI, Investors, of, Companies, Equity Locations: of America's
The top 1% aren't the only ones with a target on their backs: Those in the $400,000 to $1 million income bracket could see their capital gains tax rise under her. There has also been concern about whether the step-up in basis, a provision that adjusts capital gains taxes for inherited assets, could be repealed. A 1031 Exchange is popularly used to sell and buy investment property while deferring capital gains tax until future generations inherit it. Once they do, a step-up basis can be used to dismiss those previous capital gains taxes. AdvertisementAs for any impacts from the Trump administration, unilateral trade sanctions and tariffs would hurt the economy and be depressive to the market, Malek said.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Kent Smetters, it's Harris, Smetters, Harris, Mark Malek, Siebert, Malek, Mike Reynolds, Reynolds, Harris hasn't, Trump, Sandi Bragar Organizations: Service, Democratic, Penn Wharton Budget, Business, Biden, Nvidia, Fund Locations: Wall, Washington, Rhode Island , New York , California, Nebraska , Indiana , Wyoming, China
"We'd expect inflation to continue to subside," though with "some ups and downs" in the data from month to month, House said. Housing inflation is falling but still highInflation for physical goods spiked as the U.S. economy reopened in 2021. Shelter is largest component of the CPI, and therefore has an outsized effect on inflation readings. Such data quirks mask positive news in the real-time rental market, which has seen minimal inflation for about two years, economists said. However, shelter CPI inflation has appeared to defy gravity lately: It increased on a monthly basis for two consecutive months, from 0.2% in June to 0.4% in July, and then to 0.5% in August.
Persons: Grace Cary, Sarah House, It's, hasn't, Paul Ashworth, Ashworth, Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S . Department of Labor, North, Capital Economics, U.S . Federal, Finance, CPI, BLS Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America
Mortgage rates hit lowest level since February 2023
  + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
According to a report by the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales fell 1.5 percent in October to their lowest level in 20 years. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)Mortgage rates fell for the sixth straight week last week, but mortgage demand still seems to be waiting for something bigger. That is the lowest level since February 2023 and nearly a full percentage point lower than the same week one year ago. Total mortgage demand, however, rose just 1.4% for the week, according to the MBA's seasonally adjusted index. Mortgage rates continued to move lower to start this week, according to a separate survey by Mortgage News Daily, but the monthly release of the Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation, on Wednesday could impact the direction of rates more sharply in either direction.
Persons: Justin Sullivan, Joel Kan, Kan, Matthew Graham Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Mortgage, Association, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Labor, Mortgage News Locations: CALIFORNIA, Larkspur , California
The best iPhone 16 Pro Max cases offer rugged protection against drop damage and dynamic, visually appealing designs. AdvertisementWill an iPhone 15 Pro Max case fit an iPhone 16 Pro Max? A case meant for the iPhone 15 Pro Max will not fit the iPhone 16 Pro Max, and vice versa, due to the new model's significantly larger display. Unlike the 6.7-inch display on the iPhone 15 Pro Max, the iPhone 16 Pro Max's display is 6.9 inches. See our guide to the best iPhone 15 Pro Max cases to equip the previous model.
Persons: we've, Max, it's Organizations: Max, Apple, Business Locations: kickstands
Mid-cap stocks are poised for greater growth than small- and large-caps, Goldman Sachs says. They forecast a 13% return on mid-caps in the next year after rate cuts. AdvertisementThere's one area of the stock market that is likely set for outsized growth after rate cuts: the mid-cap shares. Mid-cap equities have historically seen stronger growth in the year after rate cuts compared to large- and small-caps, analysts from Goldman Sachs say. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting next week, followed by 25 basis points in November and December.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Russell, Goldman Organizations: Service
Why are September and October historically weak for stocks? It is a byproduct of an old weakness in the U.S. financial system. The limited ability of the government to react was the primary impetus for the passage of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. Yes, and if one compares the frequency, intensity and misery of financial panics during the 1800s, this is plainly evident. But, by and large, the U.S. financial system has been much more stable since the Federal Reserve became operational in late 1914.
Persons: Mark Higgins, Morgan Organizations: Fund, Federal, Fed, U.S, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S, New York, New York City, United States
Alliance Bernstein is behind the AB US Low Volatility Equity ETF. For comparison, FactSet lists the top holdings for Invesco's Low Volatility ETF as stocks that are traditionally more stable: Berkshire-Hathaway , Coca-Cola and Visa . Archard notes there's still a place for historically less volatile stocks such as consumer staples and financials . For example, FactSet shows that Alliance Bernstein's low-volatility ETF also includes exposure in names including Procter & Gamble and Fiserv . The AB US Low Volatility ETF is up 16% so far this year as of Wednesday's close.
Persons: Bernstein, FactSet, Noel Archard, CNBC's, there's Organizations: Big Tech, Microsoft, Apple, Hathaway, Cola, Visa, Procter & Gamble Locations: Berkshire
Read previewLast night's contentious debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris brought the looming presidential election fully into the mainstream, even for those who've been trying to block it out. However, strategists at Oppenheimer Research believe those who ignore the election — and the implications that electing Trump or Harris may bring — do so at their peril. Advertisement"This playbook is intended to help investors navigate trading dynamics around the elections," Oppenheimer strategists wrote in a September 9 note. "We expect US foreign policy toward China to become more restrictive over the next four years, irrespective of who wins the election," Oppenheimer strategists wrote. AdvertisementBelow are seven stocks with an outperform rating from Oppenheimer analysts and can survive regardless of whether Republicans or Democrats emerge victorious this fall.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, who've, Harris, Steve Eisman, Bernstein, Oppenheimer, Biden Organizations: Service, Investors, Business, Oppenheimer Research, Trump, Republicans Locations: China
Following the trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 100 shares of HD, increasing its weighting in the portfolio to about 1.1% from roughly 0.56%. Rates will come down and activity should pick up after the Fed gets a few rate cuts under its belt. That, at least, is what Toll Brothers CEO Doug Yearley said on "Squawk on the Street" earlier Wednesday when speaking about 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates and the luxury homebuilder's business. If Yearley is correct, then it won't be too long until mortgage rates are at a sweet spot where housing turnover really starts to pick up. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, Doug Yearley, it's, Yearley, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Fed, Toll, CNBC
But Deutsche Bank is offering four reasons to stay positive even as recession fears flare. AdvertisementIt's an uncomfortable time for equity investors, with the S&P 500 fresh off its biggest weekly decline in 18 months. Although the Federal Reserve is on the brink of long-awaited rate cuts, concerns have crept into the market that the economy is at risk of a sudden unpreventable softening. But with interest rate cuts ahead and recession fears in the air, investors are more likely to reposition. Rate cuts are on the horizonAdvertisementAll of Wall Street appears to be bracing for the Federal Reserve to lower rates at its policy meeting next week.
Persons: , Deutsche, There's Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Service, Federal, Wall, Deutsche, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Mortgage Bankers Association
Read previewMore children fell into poverty last year — and it could signal a major issue for both candidates as the presidential election heats up. But child poverty rose faster than that, from 12.4% to 13.7%. "The effectiveness of such a policy is evident when one considers the effects of the Child Tax Credit." And with child poverty only worsening, what candidates can deliver for parents might be particularly salient. Is the rise in child poverty and lack of assistance impacting your family?
Persons: , Steven Durlauf, Joe Biden's, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump's, Joseph Costello, Harris, Walz, JD Vance, Anna Kelly, Kelly, Trump, Adam Ruben, Josh Bivens, they'd Organizations: Service, Business, The University of Chicago, Stone Center for Research, Harris School of Public, Child Tax, Pew Research Center, Economic Security, Census, Economic Policy Institute, jkaplan Locations: U.S
The S&P 500 probably isn't hitting fresh highs anytime soon, according to Wells Fargo. AdvertisementThe stock market's long winning streak may be done for now, Wells Fargo said. That's because to a trifecta of headwinds will cap gains for the S&P 500. "For these reasons, we find it unlikely that the S&P 500 Index will reach meaningful new highs in the coming months." Since then, growth fears have overshadowed excitement about rate cuts, and questions about the sustainability of the AI rally have dented tech bullishness.
Persons: , Wells Fargo, Stocks, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Federal, Fed, Investor Locations: Wells Fargo
Moreover, shortly after Apple introduced the iPhone 16 , Chinese smartphone manufacturer Huawei launched its tri-fold phone, the Mate XT. This device garnered significant attention, securing more than 2 million pre-orders within just a few hours of its release. The trade The trade structure I'm employing is known as a "bear put spread." THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Tim Cook, AAPL, Nishant Pant Organizations: Apple, Huawei, AAPL, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: AAPL
Interest in India has been rising steadily among investors, thanks to its growing economy , strong stock market performance and burgeoning population . Amid some talk of an Indian stock market bubble , however, Pramod Gubbi, co-founder of Marcellus Investment Managers, revealed how he is playing the market. So, our job is to evaluate whether the management teams are hungry enough to identify changes that are happening and adapt to them," he told CNBC Pro last week. Women-led themes One theme that Gubbi is interested in is how India's growing numbers of working women are spending their money. Other stocks Other Indian companies Gubbi likes include Divi's Laboratories and HDFC Bank .
Persons: Pramod Gubbi, Marcellus, Gubbi, Maggi, Nescafe Organizations: Marcellus Investment, Management, CNBC Pro, Bombay Stock Exchange, Tata Group, Brands, Nestle, , Paints, Divi's Laboratories, HDFC Bank, Novartis, GSK, Merck Locations: India, U.S, China
Read previewHistorically, the US aircraft carrier fleet has been a showcase of American military superiority. "If all [China] wanted to do was protect [its] coastline, which is what they did for a long time, they wouldn't need aircraft carriers. He predicted that the US would see Chinese carriers operating off the coasts of California and Mexico within a decade. Russia's only aging aircraft carrier, the Adm. Kuznetsov, has been in service-life-extension overhaul since 2017. "Aircraft carriers exist because airplanes are useful.
Persons: , Gerald R, J, Michael Dahm, Peter W, Singer, Bryan McGrath, McGrath, Dwight D, Eisenhower, Kuznetsov Organizations: Service, US, Navy, Business, Nimitz, Ford, DefenseOne, Sandboxx News, Hamas, Carrier, Aircraft, Sandboxx Locations: Spain, Turkey, South Korea, China, Fujian, Liaoning, Philippines, Thailand, Japan, Korea, Australia, Israel, Gaza, California, Mexico
An expansion rate surpassing America'sKFC, run by Shanghai-headquartered Yum China, has historically enjoyed the lion's share of the country's fast-food cravings. Hopes for a new middle class in ChinaCities in China are unofficially grouped into tiers according to their status, size, and wealth. Chinese KFC has nearly doubled its menu itemsExpanding during a sluggish economy might make sense for fast food brands, which are often classified as recession-proof as consumers downgrade their spending. Advertisement"Now, they are doubling down further on this strategy by expanding into the inland regions of China, especially Tier Three and Tier Four cities with a growing middle class," they told BI. Yum China has also been expanding aggressively in the country's burgeoning coffee scene, establishing a popular spin-off called KCoffee.
Persons: , It's, McDonald's, Shaun Rein, Rein, Allison Malmsten, Malmsten, Cui Nan, Wang Gang, Jonathan Bernstein, Bernstein, Kung Fu, Daxue, it's, They've Organizations: Service, Thursday, Business, McDonald's, Tier, China Market Research Group, KFC, LONG, Future Publishing, Getty Images, China, US, Yum China, Daxue Consulting, Publishing, China News Service, Getty, Analysts, Yonder Consulting Locations: China, Kentucky, Weibo, Hangzhou, China's, Shanghai, China Cities, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing, Nanyang, Suqian, Jiangsu, London, Asia, Shanghai thronged
He will be Starbucks’ fourth CEO in two years, taking the helm amid a slump in Starbucks’ business and pressure from employees and investors. Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol. Some customers have expressed frustration with high prices, slow pickup orders on Starbucks’ app and lackluster food options. Mobile app and drive-thru orders make up more than 70% of Starbucks’ sales at its approximately 9,500 company-operated stores in the United States. According to the company, Niccol will spend time in stores, at headquarters in Seattle and with Starbucks employees around the world.
Persons: Brian Niccol, , , “ We’re, Niccol, Taco Bell, Dylan Buell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Starbucks, Getty Locations: New York, Chipotle, Mobile, United States, Newport Beach , California, Starbucks ’ Seattle, Seattle
Trump appears to have begun to slow Harris' rise, which began after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. At the same time, Harris has abandoned many of her most progressive views that she took during her failed 2020 Democratic presidential primary run. "She's not really quite sure what she believes that's why she is pretty evasive to answering questions on policy, policy positions that she has supported in the past and supposedly what she does not support now," Wolking said. Tuesday's debate will mark the first time Harris and Trump will be in the same room together. With perhaps the exception of the Nixon-Kennedy debate, no other presidential debate will loom larger in history.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, Harris, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, pollsters, Trump's, Ben Warner, Warner, They've, Kamala, Matt Wolking, Tim Walz, CNN's Dana Bash, She's, Wolking, hasn't, Bash, Biden, Democratic pollster Evan Roth Smith, Roth Smith, Reid Hoffman, Roth, Doug Sosnik, he'll, Sosnik, Clinton, Nixon, Kennedy Organizations: Service, New York Times, Super Bowl, NFL, University of Missouri, Culinary Union, Democratic, Voters, Trump Locations: Siena, Pennsylvania, Washington, Minnesota, Nevada
GM declined to discuss details of the spending, including how much of that amount is specifically tied to NFL advertising, but reiterated it remains significantly lower than historic levels. “The impact of the NFL on the automotive advertising industry is really very, very substantial,” said Alberto Leyes, head of product strategy at Guideline. Guideline reports viewership of NFL broadcasts grew about 7% over the past season, whereas ad spend in NFL programming doubled that pace at 14%. Automotive ad spend increased 17% over the past two seasons and is expected to increase again this year, according to Leyes. Stellantis is expected to soon launch new ads for the NFL season, including around its Jeep brand, but a spokeswoman declined to provide additional details.
Persons: , Ryan Briganti, Alberto Leyes, “ We’ve, we’ve, ” Leyes, Andrew Messina, Messina, Mark Marshall, Jenny Wall, Dedra DeLilli, That’s, ” DeLilli, , DeLilli, Stellantis, Randy Parker, NBCUniversal Organizations: National Football League, Toyota Motor Corporation, Hyundai Motor Company, Detroit, NFL, Toyota, CBS Sports, CBS, Paramount, General Motors, GM, Nielsen, Disney, ESPN, Disney Advertising, Hyundai, Mercedes, Benz, Nissan Motor, Chrysler, Brands, Sunday, NBC, Automotive, Toyota North, Olympics, Hyundai Motor America, CNBC, Comcast, NBC Sports, NBC Olympics, Games Locations: Messina, U.S, Toyota North America, Paris
A handful of stocks could prove to be smooth sailing for investors looking to ride out a historically volatile September. Stocks got off to a shaky start this month, with last week marking the worst performance since March 2023 for the S & P 500. Shares have advanced about 55% in 2024, and analysts polled by LSEG forecast nearly 11% upside ahead for the pharmaceutical stock. TJX YTD mountain TJX Companies stock. Analysts polled by LSEG forecast more than 12% upside ahead for TJX stock.
Persons: Stocks, Eli Lilly, TJX Organizations: CNBC Pro, CNBC, LSEG, Wall, Marshalls, Brands, Companies, Omnicom, Kroger Locations: Maxx
Although Swift has been photographed with this group quite a lot during her WAG era, the timing of this particular link-up was notable, thanks to the controversy surrounding Brittany Mahomes' political ties. "I want to thank beautiful Brittany Mahomes for so strongly defending me," he wrote. Related storiesTaylor Swift and Brittany Mahomes celebrate a touchdown at Arrowhead Stadium last year. Indeed, Swift has repeatedly used public appearances, paparazzi walks, and collaborations to signal her support for other women. AdvertisementTaylor Swift, Brittany Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Patrick Mahomes at the US Open.
Persons: , Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Brittany Mahomes, Swift, Donald Trump, Mahomes, Trump, David Eulitt, Swifties, WAG, Sophie Turner, Joe Jonas, Matty Healy, Healy, Spice, Swift's, Al Bello, Jackson Mahomes, Kamala Harris, Mahomes —, Trump's, that's, who've, Harris, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, We'll Organizations: Service, Kansas City Chiefs, Business, Arrowhead, Trump, Chiefs, Spice, Time, Democratic, NFL, New York Post, The Daily, Social Locations: Queens , New York, Brittany, New York City
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