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The yield on the 10-year Treasury is hovering close to 5%, the highest level in 16 years. Here's what history says about the rise in US bond yields and where Treasurys may be headed next. AdvertisementAdvertisementDuring the 1980s and 1990s, he explained, the 10-year Treasury yield was roughly two times inflation expectations, represented by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate. As for where the key bond yield heads next, history points to an answer there, too. There's a less than 1% probability, he says, that the 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.5% barring any significant revision higher in inflation expectations.
Persons: , Christoph Schon, Treasurys, Schon, " Schon, Jerome Powell, there's, Phillip Colmar, Adam Phillips Organizations: Treasury, Barclays, Service, Fed, MRB Partners, Wealth, Federal Locations: Ukraine, New York
High interest rates have not been bitcoin's friend in the past, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently reaching new generational highs comes at an especially inconvenient time for the cryptocurrency. "We continue to see high yields as a negative for bitcoin and in particular crypto more broadly," said Needham analyst John Todaro. The central bank chief also left the door open for higher interest rates , saying he doesn't think levels are currently too high. In the past, high yields have put pressure on crypto, giving investors fewer reasons to bet on high-risk assets such as bitcoin in the face of high yield, low risk assets like government bonds. Callie Cox, an analyst at the investment company eToro, said bitcoin could actually continue to do well — partly as a result of high interest rates.
Persons: it's, Needham, John Todaro, Jerome Powell, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Callie Cox, bitcoin, What's, Crypto, Cox Organizations: Treasury, Wolfe Research
A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. Wall Street’s most closely-watched measure of investor nervousness, the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX), on Friday hit its highest in nearly seven months, as the S&P 500 slid for the week. That has left investors piling into other traditional safe-haven assets such as the dollar and gold, as well as short-term debt. Rising bond yields have dampened risk appetite, raising the cost of capital for companies and offering investment competition to stocks. Geopolitical uncertainties, climbing bond yields and the risk of more losses in stocks means "investors face fresh uncertainties," they wrote.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, Angelo Kourkafas, Edward Jones, , Jerome Powell, Brent Kochuba, , Rick Meckler, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Equity, Treasury, Reuters Graphics, Federal, Microsoft, UBS Global Wealth Management, Swiss, Cherry Lane Investments, UBS, Brent, Thomson Locations: New York, Israel, Cherry Lane Investments .
Inflation-Proof Your Retirement Savings Now
  + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Laura Saunders | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
It’s hard to find a more confusing “safe” investment than the government bonds called TIPS, for Treasury inflation-protected securities—and that includes the taxes on them. But people who avoid them now could be making a mistake, especially if they’re facing retirement. No wonder investors are bewildered. TIPS say they offer inflation protection, but last year, when inflation roared, many holders of funds with longer-term TIPS had steep negative returns. That’s because TIPS, like other bonds, suffer when interest rates rise.
Organizations: Treasury
UK 30-year borrowing costs rise to highest since 1998
  + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A bus passes the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, February 14, 2017. Ten-year gilt yields were 2 basis point higher on the day at 4.69%, not far off a 15-year high of 4.755% set on Aug. 17. The BoE has raised its interest rate 14 times since December 2021 to 5.25%, but investors think it is now on pause, with only a 13% chance of a rate rise on Nov. 2 after its next meeting. The chances of a further quarter-point rate to 5.5% by March next year stand at around 55%. Reporting by David Milliken; editing by William JamesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Hannah McKay, Liz Truss, Jerome Powell, Richard Hunter, Jeremy Hunt, BoE, David Milliken, William James Our Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, Interactive Investor, Bank of, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain
Still, some traders interpreted his comments as an endorsement of keeping rates around current levels through most of next year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, rose briefly to 5% late on Thursday, a closely watched level not seen since 2007. “That gives people the go ahead to take rates above 5%.”Whiteley said that he sees 10-year yields moving as high as 5.5% before peaking. An extended climb in Treasury yields risks exacerbating the pressures that have dogged a broad array of assets in recent months. Still, even if the Fed cuts rates over the next few years, yields could stay above 5% if inflation and growth remain high, he said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Stocks, ’ ”, Greg Whiteley, ” Whiteley, , Gennadiy Goldberg, ” Goldberg, Powell, Sameer Samana, Alan Rechtschaffen, Rechtschaffen, Robert Tipp, Organizations: YORK, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal, Economic, of New, REUTERS, New York Economic, Fed, TD Securities, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS Global Wealth Management, Tipp Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, DoubleLine
Expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated and mounting U.S. fiscal concerns are among the factors driving the move. Because the $25-trillion Treasury market is considered the bedrock of the global financial system, soaring yields on U.S. government bonds have had wide-ranging effects. "The longer we remain at higher interest rates, the more likely something is to break." Elon Musk warned that high interest rates could sap electric-vehicle demand, which knocked shares of the sector on Thursday. Reuters GraphicsThe U.S. dollar has advanced an average of about 6.4% against its G10 peers since the rise in Treasury yields accelerated in mid-July.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, Powell, Elon Musk, Tesla’s, gravitating, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Reuters, Global Research, Reuters Graphics, ICE, Fed, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, Treasuries
Enter the Swiss franc, a longstanding safe haven asset that just hit its highest level against the euro since 2015 , standing tall as its traditional rivals lose appeal. Other than U.S. dollar cash, only the Swiss franc and gold remained as options, Ielpo said. The Swiss franc has rallied over 3% against the yen this month. Reuters GraphicsUNCERTAIN WORLDSince the Oct.7 Hamas attacks in Israel, the Swiss franc -- also referred to as the Swissie -- has rallied roughly 2% against the dollar. "The war in the Middle East clearly has lead to a flight to safety that benefited the Swiss franc," said Karsten Junius, an economist at J.Safra Sarasin in Zurich.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Florian Ielpo, Ielpo, Jeremy Stretch, Karsten Junius, Francesco Pesole, J.Safra Sarassin's Junius, Luca Paolini, Paolini, Treasuries, Toby Gibb, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John, John Revill, Amanda Cooper, Dhara, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Swiss, Nestle, Wall, Lombard, U.S, Swiss National Bank, Traders, Ministry of Finance, CIBC Capital Markets, Reuters, ING, Management, Artemis, Thomson Locations: ZURICH, Israel, Geneva, Japan, Zurich, Swiss, U.S, London
Still, some traders interpreted his comments as an endorsement of keeping rates around current levels through most of next year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, rose briefly to 5% late on Thursday, a closely watched level not seen since 2007. "That gives people the go ahead to take rates above 5%.”Whiteley said that he sees 10-year yields moving as high as 5.5% before peaking. An extended climb in Treasury yields risks exacerbating the pressures that have dogged a broad array of assets in recent months. Still, even if the Fed cuts rates over the next few years, yields could stay above 5% if inflation and growth remain high, he said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Stocks, , Greg Whiteley, ” Whiteley, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Powell, Sameer Samana, Alan Rechtschaffen, Rechtschaffen, Robert Tipp, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Economic, Fed, TD Securities, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS Global Wealth Management, Tipp, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, DoubleLine
But with 10-year Treasury yields surging to 5% - a 16-year high , many investors might now be tempted to lock in those high yields and buy into bonds. "You may not see such high yields as these in the next year or two," he told CNBC's " Squawk Box Asia " on Thursday. Bond prices and bond yields move in opposite directions. It's unfavorable on U.S. intermediate-term fixed income, as well as high yield taxable fixed income. Types of fixed income that it's overweight on include short-term U.S. Treasurys, U.S. inflation-linked bonds, U.K. gilts and emerging market bonds.
Persons: Wells, Paul Christopher, CNBC's, Christopher, Wells Fargo, Thomas Poullaouec, Rowe Price, Wells Fargo's Scott Wren, Bryn Jones, Rathbones, there's, Jones, He's, BlackRock Organizations: Investment, U.S, gilts, BlackRock Investment, U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasurys Locations: Asia, Pacific
Felipe Villarroel, portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, said he recently swapped some 10-year Treasuries for higher yielding 30-year Treasuries. At these levels, yields give “a massive cushion in your total returns" to protect against bond prices falling further, he said. Yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury were over 4.95% in Asia trade on Thursday, their highest level in more than 16 years, and 30-year yields breached 5% this month for the first time since 2007. An auction of 30-year U.S. Treasuries showed weak demand last week, sending yields higher. "The tightness that (bond yields) are imposing on the economy and markets is rising ... this caps the extra work the Fed needs to do," said Smith.
Persons: Jerome Powell, David Rubenstein, Amanda Andrade, Rhoades, Felipe Villarroel, Treasuries, Matt Smith, Ruffer, Buyers, Leslie Falconio, Ruffer's Smith, Smith, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Federal, Economic, of Washington, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasuries, TwentyFour Asset Management, Bank of America Global Research, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, BlackRock Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, Asia
U.S. Lifts Broad Sanctions Against Venezuela for Six Months
  + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Kejal Vyas | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The U.S. lifted sanctions against Venezuela’s oil and gas sectors for six months on Wednesday. Photo: Betty Laura Zapata/Bloomberg NewsThe Biden administration late Wednesday announced the removal of a broad array of sanctions against Venezuela’s oil and gas sector in response to a deal between President Nicolás Maduro ’s authoritarian government and his political opponents that could lead to a presidential election next year. The U.S. Treasury Department suspended for six months measures against Venezuela that had prohibited financial transactions in the country’s energy sector and gold mining industry. The measure also ended a ban on trading Venezuelan government bonds.
Persons: Betty Laura Zapata, Nicolás Maduro Organizations: U.S, Bloomberg, Biden, Wednesday, U.S . Treasury Locations: U.S, Venezuela
Felipe Villarroel, portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, said he recently swapped some 10-year Treasuries for higher yielding 30-year Treasuries. At these levels, yields give “a massive cushion in your total returns" to protect against bond prices falling further, he said. Yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury were over 4.95% in Asia trade on Thursday, their highest level in more than 16 years, and 30-year yields breached 5% this month for the first time since 2007. An auction of 30-year U.S. Treasuries showed weak demand last week, sending yields higher. "The tightness that (bond yields) are imposing on the economy and markets is rising ... this caps the extra work the Fed needs to do," said Smith.
Persons: Jerome Powell, David Rubenstein, Amanda Andrade, Rhoades, Felipe Villarroel, Treasuries, Matt Smith, Ruffer, Buyers, Leslie Falconio, Ruffer's Smith, Smith, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Federal, Economic, of Washington, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasuries, TwentyFour Asset Management, Bank of America Global Research, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, BlackRock Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, Asia
Morning Bid: Risk aversion grips markets
  + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
An investor sits in front of a board showing stock information at a brokerage office in Beijing, China, December 7, 2018. The sell-off in the bond market continued into Asian hours, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield at 4.949%, its highest since mid-2007. That weighed on regional bond markets in Asia, with Japanese government bonds yields hitting decade highs. Futures indicated that European stock markets are due to open much lower as risk aversion takes hold, while the European economic calendar is bare. Netflix makes many of its shows and movies overseas, which accounted for the bulk of its new sign-ups.
Persons: Thomas Peter, Banerjee, Biden, Jerome Powell, Elon Musk, shrugging, Powell, Ankur Banerjee, Edmund Klamann Organizations: REUTERS, Netflix, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Israel, Venezuela, France
Treasury Yields Edge Toward 5% for First Time Since 2007
  + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
A global selloff in longer-term government bonds has pushed 10-year Treasury yields close to 5% for the first time since 2007, before the financial crisis ushered in more than a decade of ultra-low interest rates.
A fresh selloff in government bonds weighed on stock markets globally, adding to pressure from the conflict in the Middle East . Netflix shares leapt in premarket trading, while Tesla fell after the companies reported quarterly results after Wednesday’s market close. Investors were also assessing results from major companies such as AT&T and Blackstone. S&P 500 and Dow industrials contracts edged lower, while Nasdaq-100 contracts wavered. Treasury yields rose.
Persons: Tesla, Stocks Organizations: Netflix, Blackstone, Stock, Dow, Nasdaq, Brent, Venezuela Locations: Shanghai, Europe, Israel, U.S
Valuations have swelled, with the Magnificent Seven trading at an average forward price-to-earnings ratio of 33.5, compared with the S&P 500's P/E of 18.3. “Everybody knows these guys are going to make money," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII), referring to the Magnificent Seven. "The reallocation of funds going forward is going to suggest lower returns and more difficulty for the Magnificent Seven to maintain their leadership." The seven companies' combined market capitalization topped 30% of the S&P 500's overall market value earlier this month, according to LSEG Datastream. Some investors are also drawing distinctions among the seven stocks.
Persons: Aly, Tesla, Sameer Samana, Tajinder Dhillon, Tim Pagliara, CapWealth, Pagliara, Elon Musk, LSEG Datastream, Torsten Slok, Patrick Kaser, Kaser, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Apple, REUTERS, Microsoft, Nvidia, U.S, Tesla, Wells, Investment Institute, Google, Facebook, Federal, Treasury, , Global, Apollo Global Management, Brandywine Global, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Apple
Banks’ wealth-management heyday may have passed
  + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
For wealth managers, that will make revenue growth much harder to come by, shifting the focus to controlling expenses. LOSING ITS SPARKLEIn Wall Street parlance, wealth management is a capital-light business. Little wonder Morgan Stanley boss James Gorman focused on wealth management after taking charge in 2010. The good news for UBS and Morgan Stanley is that they are better placed than most to handle these pressures. The bank’s wealth-management business generated a 35% ROTE, while the division that houses investment banking and trading managed just 8%.
Persons: UBS –, Morgan Stanley’s, Morgan Stanley, James Gorman, Sergio Ermotti, Goldman Sachs, Italy’s, Iqbal Khan, Morgan Stanley’s Andy Saperstein, Peter Thal Larsen, Sharon Lam, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Wealth, UBS, Credit Suisse, HSBC, HK, Lloyds Banking Group, Revenue, Treasury, Big, Thomson Locations: Swiss, United States, Americas, Switzerland, Britain’s St, James’s
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. U.S. Treasury yields rose on robust economic data. Higher yields dull the allure of stocks by offering investors comparatively high income on risk-free government bonds. Helping to limit the declines, though, were upbeat earnings reports from companies including Bank of America (BAC.N), whose stock was up following its quarterly results. In other earnings news, Goldman Sachs's (GS.N) third-quarter profit dropped less than expected, though its shares fell.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Biden, Peter Cardillo, Anthony Saglimbene, Joe Biden, Goldman Sachs's, Caroline Valetkevitch, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Biden, Semiconductor, Nvidia, Treasury, Bank of America, Spartan Capital Securities, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal, Investors, U.S, Israel, Hamas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, chipmakers, Philadelphia, New York, Troy , Michigan, Israeli, Gaza City, Gaza, Bengaluru
The budget bill will then go to parliament, which must pass it by the end of the year. Investors have been demanding a higher premium to hold Italian government bonds since Rome last month raised its budget deficit targets for the 2023-2025 period, setting it up for a possible clash with the European Commission. AGEING POPULATIONNext year people earning up to 28,000 euros per year will pay income tax (known as IRPEF) at 23%, according to the officials. Meloni also aims to earmark at least 1 billion euros for measures, which have yet to be detailed, aimed at addressing Italy's demographic crisis. The scheme could increase tax revenues in Italy by between 2 and 3 billion euros, one official said.
Persons: Giorgia, Giancarlo Giorgetti, DBRS, Fitch, Moody's, Meloni, Giuseppe Fonte, Keith Weir Organizations: Treasury, European Commission, P, Thomson Locations: ROME, Rome, Ukraine, Italy
[1/2] Robert Biedron, Wlodzimierz Czarzasty, Anna Maria Zukowska, Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus, Adrian Zandberg and Magdalena Biejat of the New Left (Nowa Lewica) alliance gesture during the final day of campaigning for the parliamentary elections in Warsaw, Poland, October 13, 2023. Opinion polls suggest PiS will come out ahead but could lose its majority amid intensifying discontent over its democratic record, which has cost Poland billions of euros in EU aid, and concerns over women's rights and the cost of living. "This election will show whether Poland will be governed by Poles, or by Berlin or Brussels," PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski told supporters at the party's last campaign rally on Friday. It has built its support on generous social handouts, which it says rival parties will stop. Tusk says his party would maintain social support.
Persons: Robert Biedron, Wlodzimierz Czarzasty, Anna Maria Zukowska, Joanna Scheuring, Adrian Zandberg, Magdalena Biejat, PiS, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Donald Tusk, Tusk, Rafal Trzaskowski, Pawel Florkiewicz, Giles Elgood Organizations: New, Law and Justice, European Union, EU, NATO, liberal Civic Coalition, European, Warsaw, Confederation, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: Warsaw, Poland, Slawomir, WARSAW, Ukraine, Washington, Kyiv, Berlin, Brussels, Skarzysko Kamienna, Kalisz
MUMBAI (Reuters) - India’s state-owned banks will slow government bond purchases in the weeks ahead as banking system liquidity tightens, treasury officials from nine state lenders said. REUTERS/Hemanshi KamaniBond yields have spiked since Oct. 6, when the central bank said it will keep monetary policy restrictive and sell bonds to manage banking system liquidity. These lenders have bought 253 billion rupees ($3 billion) of government debt since Sept. 22, including 100 billion rupees on Oct. 6. Banking system liquidity - the quantum of funds in the interbank market - has largely been in deficit from the middle of September. Bond traders expect the banking system’s cash position to stay in deficit because of tax payments and likely bond sales by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Persons: , ” Vijay Sharma, PNB Gilts, Bond Organizations: REUTERS, Banking, Reserve Bank of India, Locations: MUMBAI, , India
BofA: Investors sell stocks, buy bonds; shun emerging markets
  + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Investors sold stocks and bought bonds in the week to Wednesday, Bank of America Global Research said in a note on Friday, while investors continued to shun emerging market assets. Equities had a weekly outflow of $8.2 billion, BofA said, citing EPFR data, while investors favoured the relative safety of bonds, which had inflows of $3.7 billion. Inflows into Treasuries totalled $7.2 billion, the largest weekly inflow since March 2023, BofA said. Investors dumped emerging market debt and stocks in the latest week, with outflows from equities at $4.3 billion, their largest weekly outflow since May 2022, BofA said. The 10-year yield was last at 4.6248%.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, BofA, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, BofA's, Samuel Indyk, Amanda Cooper, Jane Merriman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank of America Global Research, Investors, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries
How U.S. bank balance sheets have changed as Fed raises rates
  + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Alongside that, overall U.S. commercial bank credit during the third quarter began shrinking on a year-over-year basis for the first time in more than a decade, Fed data show. Overall bank credit, reported weekly, stood at $17.26 trillion on the last Wednesday of September on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, down from $17.30 trillion on the last Wednesday of June and $17.33 trillion a year earlier. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsBank deposits overall stabilized during the quarter, after falling sharply in the wake of the March bank failures. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsDeposits at smaller banks fell sharply after the March bank turmoil, but have recovered much of their losses, and are now down about 2% from their April 2022 level. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Dan Burns and Diane CraftOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Reuters Graphics Banks, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Diane Craft Organizations: Silicon, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank, Graphics, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo
MUMBAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - India's state-owned banks will slow government bond purchases in the weeks ahead as banking system liquidity tightens, treasury officials from nine state lenders said. Bond yields have spiked since Oct. 6, when the central bank said it will keep monetary policy restrictive and sell bonds to manage banking system liquidity. These lenders have bought 253 billion rupees ($3 billion) of government debt since Sept. 22, including 100 billion rupees on Oct. 6. Reuters GraphicsBanking system liquidity - the quantum of funds in the interbank market - has largely been in deficit from the middle of September. Bond purchases would be incremental and linked to rise in yields, say at every 3-4 basis points, the treasury head at the state-run bank said.
Persons: Vijay Sharma, PNB Gilts, Dharamraj Dhutia, Swati Bhat, Mrigank Organizations: Reuters Graphics Banking, Reserve Bank of India, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, India
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