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HONG KONG, Nov 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Tuesday’s rally in China shares may have been based on rumour. But in offshore markets, the value discount on offer is so extreme it makes gambling on false hopes less risky than it might otherwise be. Buying based on online scuttlebutt might seem reckless, but less so considering how beaten up offshore shares in some Chinese companies are. The average constituent of the S&P 500 (.SP500) trades at 15 times its estimated forward earnings, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (.HSCE) ratio is 5 times, Datastream shows. The question, though, is at what point investors see value in beleaguered Chinese technology companies and real estate developers.
Oil and commodities are "the best bet" when it comes to hedging against inflation, rising interest rates and geopolitical risk, according to Goldman Sachs' Jeff Currie. "Oil and commodities are the best hedge for the environment that we're in right now," Currie said. "They're the best hedge against inflation, as well as the best hedge against rising interest rates. And they're also the best hedge against geopolitical risk. "I think the key point here is, if you're looking to hedge those risks, oil and commodities are your best bet."
Bain gives India’s banking ball a time check
  + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Bain Capital on Tuesday pocketed some $400 million from selling just under a third of the more than 4% stake it bought in Axis Bank (AXBK.NS) in 2017. Back then, the private equity firm and Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIFI.NS) injected cash as the country’s third-largest non-state-controlled lender was grappling with a slew of bad loans. Axis now oozes confidence under ex-HDFC Life Insurance executive Amitabh Chaudhry, who joined as boss in 2019. Gross bad loans account for 2.5% of total assets, less than half the level when Bain bought in. With Bain currently sitting on 1.6 times its money, excluding dividends, it’s a good time to send some in its party home.
Oil benchmarks could pass $115 a barrel by the end of the first quarter of 2023, according to Goldman Sachs' Jeff Currie. Tightening supply will drive crude prices higher, the bank's head of commodities research said. These could all drive crude prices higher. Crude oil prices have risen in this year, thanks to the fallout from Russia's war on Ukraine. Strategists expect the move to drive up oil prices, as it could impact supply.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Goldman Sachs' Jeff Currie on oil prices, supercycles and moreJeff Currie, Goldman Sachs' global head of commodities, speaks to CNBC's Dan Murphy about the current state of the oil market, investing in the LNG space, OPEC's controversial production cuts and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOil and commodities are the best hedge right now, Goldman’s Jeff Currie saysGoldman’s Jeff Currie tells CNBC's Dan Murphy oil and commodities are the best hedge for the environment that we’re in right now.
Since Meta reported earnings on Wednesday, its stock has shed more than 23%. Everyone on Wall Street is mad that Meta keeps spending so much. Investors and analysts took the day yesterday to digest the tech giant's latest earnings, and it's clear patience is wearing thin. Mega-cap tech stocks like Zucks' behemoth are facing a possible crisis, with other giants like Google parent Alphabet reporting slowdowns in digital advertising growth. Wall Street is grappling with the "revenge of the old economy" as tech and growth stocks crash.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWall Street is seeing the 'revenge of the old economy,' says Goldman Sachs' Jeff CurrieJeff Currie, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down the latest moves in energy prices and explains why sectors like tech are witnessing the "revenge of the old economy."
HONG KONG, Oct 27 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Tesla’s (TSLA.O) China price cut is a double-edged sword. China is increasingly important for Tesla and its investors, accounting for around a quarter of the electric-car maker’s top line in the first nine months of 2022. If sales reach nearly $120 billion next year as forecast by Refinitiv, a 9% cut would equate to around $2.5 billion in revenue. Chinese drivers, though, are starting to snub international badges in favour of home-grown alternatives, especially for electric and premium models. The company posted the price cuts on its China website on Oct. 24.
Australia has bulwark against China slowdown
  + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The country is Australia’s biggest trading partner, accounting for up to a third of its roughly A$475 billion ($303 billion) of annual exports. Its voracious demand over the past three decades helped Australia enjoy almost 30 years without a recession until the 2020 pandemic. As Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ first budget on Tuesday shows, though, Australia has some shock absorbers. If it doesn’t Australia won’t be able to escape the fallout entirely, but at least has some defences. Australia’s budget deficit for the financial year to June 30 2023 is expected to be A$36.9 billion ($23.3 billion).
The Musk video by reAlpha included “robust disclaimers” establishing it as satire, said Christie Currie, chief marketing officer. The first Musk video went live days after reAlpha launched a public offering under regulation A+ in 2021. But the ease of creating deepfakes means some celebrities could soon be deluged by ads featuring their unauthorized, but very convincing likenesses, Mr. Moss said. At the same time, the language in contracts written years before the technology existed may be vague enough to allow marketers to use existing footage to create new deepfake videos. Companies most often request celebrity deepfake videos to use internally for training, communications, parties or other purposes—but not for ads, said Daynen Biggs, owner of Slack Shack Films, which produced the Elon Musk videos.
Toyota’s new, new EV plan suggests smarter driving
  + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
MELBOURNE, Oct 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Toyota Motor (7203.T) may be driving towards its third electric-car reboot in just 13 months as it tries to catch up with Tesla (TSLA.O), Reuters exclusively reported on Monday. But the $218 billion Japanese carmaker’s latest overhaul suggests it’s getting serious about addressing missteps with more speed. Electric-vehicle sales, especially in the past two years, have put the lie to that belief; growth has easily outpaced that of Toyota’s hybrids. The plan would involve slowing down the rollout of electric vehicles already in development so that Toyota could devise a more efficient manufacturing process. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterEditing by Robyn Mak and Thomas ShumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
HONG KONG, Oct 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - One day into President Xi Jinping’s precedent-breaking new term as leader of the ruling Communist Party, China’s financial markets are already in turmoil. Investors largely ignored rosier-than-expected GDP data to wipe almost 10% off the value of internet giants like Alibaba (9988.HK) and JD.com (9618.HK), amid a broader selloff. The government on Monday released a slew of delayed economic indicators after the Party Congress concluded on Sunday. They looked upbeat at first glance: GDP expanded 3.9% in the third quarter, up from the previous quarter’s 0.4%. Instead, he filled it with his own protégés including Beijing Party Chief Cai Qi and Shanghai Party Chief Li Qiang.
Aussies put net-zero nationalisation on the map
  + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
MELBOURNE, Oct 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Nationalisation and capitalism are supposed to be like chalk and cheese. He also accused privately run energy generators of reaping huge profits “at our collective expense” without helping to achieve net-zero goals. If done right — and the details will be key — other governments facing similar net-zero challenges can take note. His plan involves restoring the State Electricity Commission to build new renewable energy projects. The SEC has not been involved in building energy projects since 1993 when the state’s energy assets were privatised.
HONG KONG, Oct 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Automakers are hitting China’s growth limit. The industry achieved four consecutive months of double-digit growth in September when deliveries reached 2.3 million, 33% higher than a year earlier, per the China Association of Auto Manufacturers. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterAs incentives expire, cars could follow a similar route to China’s commercial vehicles. Truck tales: A boom in China's sales of commercial vehicles proved to be short-livedBattery powered: China's strong EV sales mask slower deliveries of traditional motorsFollow @KatrinaHamlin on Twitter(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. CONTEXT NEWSChina's passenger car retail sales rose 33.2% in September from a year earlier to 2.3 million, according to data released by the China Association of Auto Manufacturers on Oct. 11.
HONG KONG, Oct 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Solving Hong Kong's brain drain problem need not be complicated. Leader John Lee hopes lower property taxes and a new visa scheme will persuade foreign talent not to move to destinations like Singapore. As a result, Hong Kong's mid-year population dipped 1.6% to 7.29 million - the steepest year-on-year drop on record. Non-residents are also eligible to apply for a refund of the extra stamp duty paid for buying property in Hong Kong once they become a permanent resident. Lee may be ignoring them, but the main policy solutions are staring him in the face.
Economists from UCLA, Northwestern and Princeton universities found that pandemic trends, such as increased work flexibility, helped push up US birth rates last year to 6.2% from pre-pandemic levels, marking the first major reversal in declining fertility rates since 2007 and counteracting a longstanding economic certainty: Birth rates don’t increase during economic downturns. The baby bump was also pronounced among women aged 30 to 34 and those between the ages of 25 and 44 with a college degree. The latter group was more likely to retain their job during the pandemic and work from home. The pandemic helped to expose the critical role the child care industry serves in bolstering labor market participation. “The US has experienced declining fertility rates now for over a decade, and this has been a concern to many policymakers,” he said.
Water risk powers fear-then-greed coal trade
  + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
MELBOURNE, Oct 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Shareholders have found a distressing silver lining to the floods that have been pounding eastern Australia. Investors immediately sent stock in both the company and rival New Hope (NHC.AX) sinking 6% or more. Such indifference to water risk in the energy sector is common, with scarcity causing problems with hydropower, and few paying attention to green hydrogen’s H2O needs. While good news for miners, it’s yet more bad news for a world in the middle of an energy crisis. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
BYD catches investors at distracted driving
  + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Investors drove the $93 billion company’s shares up around 5% on Tuesday after the company estimated its net profit nearly quadrupled in the quarter ending September compared to the same period last year. Its global market share overtook Tesla (TSLA.O) in the first eight months of the year, according to Bernstein analysts. Tuesday’s recovery suggests at least some investors now believe that was overdone. BYD is driving into new markets overseas and moving its once budget brand up-market. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
HONG KONG, Oct 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) - It’s mid-afternoon Monday in Beijing and a simple question is doing the rounds: will China’s latest GDP figures be published as scheduled the next day? A day later, there’s still no sign of when the data will land, nor any clear explanation. It invites speculation that the numbers show the economy is in bad shape and are being kept under wraps so they don’t steal the thunder of the ruling Communist Party’s twice-a-decade congress, which began on Sunday. The delay came amid the twice-a-decade congress of the ruling Communist Party which runs from Oct. 16 to 22. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterEditing by Antony Currie and Thomas ShumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
China’s next big trade is nationalism
  + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Yawen Chen | Thomson Reuters | Beijing | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
HONG KONG, Oct 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - President Xi Jinping has just made clear that he has bigger worries than the flagging economy. He opened the twice-a-decade Communist Party Congress on Sunday with a speech more focussed on national security and stability than in the past. That means state-led, inward-looking policies like self-sufficiency and zero-Covid will trump economic growth. Follow @ywchen1 on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSPresident Xi Jinping on Oct. 16 delivered a two-hour-long speech on the opening day of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterEditing by Antony Currie and Thomas ShumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Toshiba shareholders curb their buyout enthusiasm
  + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
MUMBAI, Oct 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Toshiba (6502.T) shareholders are curbing their enthusiasm, and that makes sense. They bid up the Japanese conglomerate’s stock 8% following a report of a 2.8 trillion yen ($19.1 billion) buyout bid led by Japan Industrial Partners. That leaves the company’s enterprise value lagging the new bid by some 12%. Throw in a weak yen and all the global economic turmoil, and getting a buyout done at all will be triumph. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Qantas shareholders take cautiously to the skies
  + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
MELBOURNE, Oct 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Shareholders have become accustomed to bad news from airlines. So it’s only fitting that Qantas Airways’ (QAN.AX)prediction on Thursday of bumper earnings prompted a somewhat muted response. The $6 billion Australian carrier reckons its underlying pretax profit for the six months to the end of December will be between A$1.2 billion and A$1.3 billion ($753 million and $815 million). But it implies investors are factoring in just A$130 million of additional earnings on an annual basis, after applying the stock’s almost 10 times forward earnings multiple and assuming a constant tax rate. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
The House Jan. 6 committee obtained hundreds of thousands of internal Secret Service emails. Before the new revelations, the Secret Service was already at the center of the committee's investigation. The panel is also looking into how the Secret Service lost countless other records from January 6, reportedly including agents' text messages. Anthony Guglielmi, chief of communications for the Secret Service, has said there was no malicious intent behind the messages' deletion. Secret Service agent Larry Cockell (left) was forced to testify in an investigation into then-President Bill Clinton.
Nissan wants to reduce Renault’s 43% holding to 15%, on par with Nissan’s stake in the French group, Reuters reports. Free cash flow will turn positive to the tune of 388 billion yen ($2.7 billion) by 2024, Morningstar estimates. He could, for example, ask shareholders to buy some of Renault’s Nissan stock. Or he could consider borrowing more; even after buying back a chunk from Renault, Nissan’s debt-to-EBITDA multiple could manage it. Nissan’s Renault reshuffle will drive a capital raise; he just needs to pick a route.
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