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☆ U.S. debt drama and data hoist dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar hit a two-week peak of 136.69 yen overnight and hovered just below that at 136.54 in the Asia day. Expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts any time soon were dampened by the solid increase in April consumer spending, and by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. "We expect some modest further increases in the dollar as markets continue to take out pricing for rate cuts," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso. "A rate hike is possible this year, though the hurdle is high." The New Zealand dollar was broadly steady at $0.6244, with investors looking ahead to a 25 bp interest rate hike next week and perhaps one more after that.

☆ Data and debt ceiling hoist dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Data showed U.S. consumer spending appeared to have increased solidly in April, which together with hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials weighed on bonds and against expectations that interest rate cuts are coming soon. Interest rate futures pricing implies no chance of a rate cut in June, down from about a 17% chance seen a month ago. "Market participants continue to lower pricing for near term rate cuts by the FOMC," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso. "We expect some modest further increases in the dollar as markets continue to take out pricing for rate cuts. The New Zealand dollar was broadly steady at $0.6239, with investors looking ahead to a 25 bp interest rate next week and perhaps one more after that.

☆ Analysis: Australian banks' bid to shake mortgage reliance brings new risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Byron Kaye | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"When there's a macroeconomic downturn, it's generally institutional and business lending exposures that are impacted first," he added. For decades, Australian housing finance has significantly outpaced business lending, making home loan margins the engine of profits. A more recent exodus from non-lending retail services like financial advice has further weighted banks' allocation of capital to residential property. The big four banks said in earnings updates this month that their net interest margins peaked in late 2022 and have since narrowed. To hedge against interest rates risks, the Big Four may now chase new services-based revenues from commercial clients in non-lending segments, added Garland.

☆ Asian shares on edge for China data, Fed speakers
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

On Monday, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) wobbled between losses and gains and was last up 0.1%. China is due to report monthly industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment data on Tuesday. Very much on investors' mind was the uncertainty about lifting the U.S. debt ceiling and the return of bank worries. The yield on benchmark 10-year notes was little changed at 3.4588%, after rising 6 basis points on Friday, and two-year yields eased 2 basis points to 3.9830%, having also jumped 10 basis points in the previous session. U.S. crude futures eased 0.5% to $69.71 per barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 0.6% to $73.74 per barrel.

☆ Dollar hits 5-week high on inflation worries; lira drops, baht soars
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"But the still-high inflation and tight labour market also imply a high bar to rate cuts in the near term too." The U.S. dollar is oversold and the dollar index should move toward CBA's end-June target of 104 this week, Capurso said. The Japanese currency dipped at low as 136.03 per dollar before last trading flat at 135.80. The dollar was last up 0.31% at 19.64 Turkish lira after earlier jumping to 19.70 for the first time since March 10. The U.S. currency sank 0.65% to 33.76 baht in onshore Thai trading, and earlier dipped as much as 0.92%.

☆ Asian shares braced for China data, Fed speakers
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Investors are keenly awaiting China's central bank rate decision on Monday. Market watchers polled by Reuters expect the medium-term policy rate to be left unchanged despite disappointing data last week that fuelled concerns about a global slowdown. The country is due to report monthly industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment data on Tuesday. Very much on investors' mind was the uncertainty about lifting the U.S. debt ceiling and the return of bank worries. Oil prices were trying to find a footing after tumbling nearly 2% last week on demand concerns.

☆ Stocks stumble in jittery mood ahead of US inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

S&P 500 futures were steady and European futures rose 0.1%. "That's the thing that'd get taken out if CPI numbers come in on the higher side," said ING economist Rob Carnell. "It doesn't look particularly sensible if inflation is falling at too slow a rate and that could feed through into higher longer-term treasury yields as well." Interest rate futures imply about a 60% chance the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "But the debt ceiling drama, and market participants’ focus on rate cuts is unlikely to change much from one CPI report.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets on hold for US CPI
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom WestbrookSterling and the euro seem to be losing steam as currency markets tuck themselves in for a nap. Today's inflation data, due at 1230 GMT, could offer a jolt if the surprise factor is big enough. Economists polled by Reuters see core CPI steady at a monthly 0.4%. Beyond the inflation data, U.S. default risks and banking wobbles loom as the next likely focus. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:U.S. CPI dataReporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Edwina GibbsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Stocks stumble as investors' nerves show ahead of US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - Stocks were struggling to advance in Asia and the dollar was firm on Wednesday ahead of U.S. consumer price data that could damage hopes for interest rate cuts later this year if inflation fails to show much of a decline. Overnight the S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 0.5% and S&P 500 futures were steady in the Asian morning. A firm U.S. dollar pushed the euro back below $1.10 to $1.0971. Treasuries were broadly steady overnight, though debt-ceiling brinkmanship is warping the bills market as investors avoid bills maturing early in June. The dollar was also firm at 135.14 yen and has lifted slightly from recent lows on the Aussie , kiwi and sterling .

☆ Dollar softer as US debt ceiling crisis unresolved, inflation data eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened broadly on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden and top lawmakers failed to break a deadlock on the debt ceiling crisis, though currency moves were marginal amid caution ahead of U.S. inflation data later in the day. The two, however, agreed to further talks and committed their aides to daily discussions about areas of possible agreement. "There has been a lot of attention lately on the debt ceiling issues," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). Also preoccupying investors was U.S. inflation data, with economists polled by Reuters expecting a 5.5% year-on-year increase in core consumer prices for April. "I think markets are already expecting the Bank of Japan to make some moves."

☆ Dollar softer as U.S. debt ceiling crisis unresolved, inflation data eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

An employee deals with U.S. one-hundred dollar banknotes at a bank on June 16, 2022 in Hai an, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province of China. The dollar weakened broadly on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden and top lawmakers failed to break a deadlock on the debt ceiling crisis, though currency moves were marginal amid caution ahead of U.S. inflation data later in the day. "There has been a lot of attention lately on the debt ceiling issues," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Also preoccupying investors was U.S. inflation data, with economists polled by Reuters expecting a 5.5% year-on-year increase in core consumer prices for April. "I think markets are already expecting the Bank of Japan to make some moves."

☆ Yen set to snap 3-week losing streak on bank jitters, dollar slides
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Although ECB President Christine Lagarde signalled more tightening to come, markets pared back their expectations on how much further rates would rise. Traders have since priced in more aggressive rate cuts from the Fed, with Fed funds futures implying a small chance that cuts could come as soon as June and through to the end of the year. The Aussie and the kiwi were among the largest beneficiaries of the sliding dollar, each rising more than 0.5% and touching multi-week highs. "For the Fed's June decision, inflation data and employment indicators ... along with bank lending standards will be key to watch. The Australian dollar was last up 0.62% at $0.6735, after touching a two-week peak earlier in the session.

☆ Yen set to snap 3-week losing streak on bank jitters, dollar slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A bundle of Japanese 10,000 yen banknotes on a tray arranged at a branch of Resona Bank Ltd. in Tokyo, Japan. "The Japanese yen has slowly gained back its appeal of safe haven status, and has definitely been supported by concerns about U.S. regional banks and the associated safe-haven demand," Kong said. A deepening crisis across U.S. regional banks have kept investors on tenterhooks, with pressure growing on U.S. regulators to take more steps to shore up the sector. "For the Fed's June decision, inflation data and employment indicators ... along with bank lending standards will be key to watch. Down Under, the Australian dollar rose 0.26% to $0.6711, while the kiwi NZD=D3 touched a three-week high of $0.6311.

2 lender, fell short of analyst forecasts in half-year profit released on Thursday and took a hit to its share price after warning that the windfall from rising interest rates had peaked. The update signals a tough new phase for Australia's lenders which have benefited from a year of rising interest rates by charging more to borrowers while limiting the amount they pay deposit-holders. "What the market's concerned about is the exit NIM (net interest margin)," said Hugh Dive, chief investment officer at Atlas Funds Management which holds bank stocks. In personal banking, which includes mortgages, profit shrank slightly due to a A$393 million impairment charge. The bank had telephoned 7,000 borrowers deemed to be most vulnerable to rising interest rates and just 13 had requested assistance.

☆ Dollar in defensive mood after jobs data; Fed in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in Chicago on October 18, 2022. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, eased 0.029% to 101.820 after sliding 0.245% on Tuesday. "If the difference in rates between the two regions become clearer, DXY (dollar index) may fall below the 100 mark." The kiwi rose 0.35% versus the greenback to $0.623, while sterling was last trading at $1.2479, up 0.12% on the day. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.11% to 136.40 per dollar, clawing back some of its losses from last week when the Bank of Japan stuck to its ultra-loose monetary policy.

☆ Stocks ease; Aussie dollar soars after surprise hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"No one is going to want to do too much before we get to that FOMC decision. "One of the things that sticks out to me is that they're still saying they might need to increase interest rates," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso. "So as well as the increase today, that's supporting the Aussie dollar," he said. The U.S. dollar was steady against a basket of major currencies , while the euro eased 0.1% to $1.097. But markets are still anxious about what may be the next crisis, even if the initial response has been positive.

☆ Stocks on edge, Aussie surges after RBA surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 2 (Reuters) - Asian shares wobbled in cautious trade on Tuesday ahead of a series of data releases and central bank meetings, which began with a surprise rate hike in Australia that boosted the local dollar. Markets were positioned for Australia's central bank to stay on hold and a 25 basis point hike sent the Aussie dollar up about 0.8% to its highest in a week at $0.6692. Three-year Aussie government bond yields also jumped, while Australian stocks (.AXJO) slipped 0.7%. "So as well as the increase today, that's supporting the Aussie dollar," he said, though he warned that could unwind as there's a "reasonable chance" the Federal Reserve takes a similar approach at its meeting on Wednesday. Two-year Treasury yields , which track short-term U.S. rate expectations were steady at 4.1451% in Asia.

☆ Stocks on edge as traders wait on central bankers
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Treasury yields rose in response and expectations firmed to near certain for one final U.S. rate hike this week. JPMorgan shares rose 2.1%. The policy stands in contrast to the U.S. and Europe where central banks are deep into a hiking cycle and still going. On the monetary policy front the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is first up in a week that brings central bank meetings in the U.S., Europe and Norway. Overnight, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the Treasury might run out of money to cover obligations as soon as June 1.

☆ Australia's home prices rise again in sign of market bottom
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, May 1 (Reuters) - Australian home prices rose for a second straight month in April, in a further signal that the nation's property market may have hit a floor ahead of a central bank rate decision on Tuesday. Figures from property consultant CoreLogic released on Monday showed prices nationally rose 0.5% in April from March, when values were up 0.6%, indicating Australian home prices may have bottomed out after slumping 9.1% from May 2022 to February. We now expect home prices to rise by 3% in 2023 and forecast a further increase of 5% in 2024." Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP, also no longer expects a top-to-bottom fall of 15-20% in housing prices, citing "a far worse property demand and supply imbalance" with immigration levels surging and supply remaining tight. PropTrack data on Monday showed that home prices rose 0.14% in April, bringing the cumulative increase this year to 0.75%.

☆ Euro near one-year peak as US economic risks weigh on dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO, April 27 (Reuters) - The euro hovered near a one-year high versus the dollar on Thursday, as Europe's resilient economy contrasted with banking contagion risks in the United States, the debt ceiling standoff and a potential recession. Europe's single currency ticked up 0.05% to $1.10415, edging back toward the overnight peak at $1.1096, the highest since April of last year. IG analyst Tony Sycamore also sees risks skewed to the downside for the euro against the dollar. IG's Sycamore says the initial strength was driven by U.S. banking concerns, but the market was "apparently spooked by a large sell order." Provided bitcoin can remain above $25,000, Sycamore expects the token to test this month's high at $31,035.

☆ Euro near one-year peak as U.S. economic risks weigh on dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The euro hovered near a one-year high versus the dollar on Thursday, as Europe's resilient economy contrasted with banking contagion risks in the United States, the debt ceiling standoff and a potential recession. Europe's single currency ticked up 0.05% to $1.10415, edging back toward the overnight peak at $1.1096, the highest since April of last year. IG analyst Tony Sycamore also sees risks skewed to the downside for the euro against the dollar. Aussie dollar traders are more confident that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep rates unchanged for a second meeting next week after some softness in consumer inflation data on Wednesday. Bitcoin firmed to around $29,060, following a day when it jumped as high as $30,022, only to then slide as low as $27,242.

☆ Dollar, yen boosted as US banking sector fears put safe-havens back in vogue
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, nudged 0.01% higher to 101.80 after a 0.5% increase overnight. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.13% to 133.53 per dollar, after gaining about 0.4% on Tuesday. The traditional safe-haven gained 2.6% in March amid fears of a widespread banking crisis but has lost 0.6% in April as the worries eased. The U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index slid as well, down to -10 in April, the fourth straight month of contraction. The Australian dollar slid to a six-week low of $0.6604 before settling down 0.3% at $0.6605 after data showed inflation eased from 33-year highs in the first quarter, while core inflation dipped below forecasts.

☆ Dollar, yen buoyed as US banking sector fears put safe-havens back in vogue
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, nudged 0.01% higher to 101.80 following a 0.5% increase overnight. The traditional safe-haven gained 2.6% in March amid fears of a widespread banking crisis but has lost 0.6% for the month of April. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a nine-month low in April, data overnight showed, heightening the risk that the economy could fall into recession this year. The U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index slid as well, down at -10 in April, the fourth straight month of contraction. The Australian dollar was swinging between losses and gains after data showed inflation eased from 33-year highs in the first quarter, while core inflation dipped below forecasts.

Kirin has offered A$95 cash per Blackmores share, a 23.7% premium to the stock's last close, and a tad higher than its 22.4% jump in morning trade. Before the Kirin deal, its shares had been trading at one-third of their value at the height of the daigou craze in 2016. The board of Blackmores has unanimously recommended shareholders support the deal, with top shareholder and former chairman Marcus Blackmore also agreeing to vote in favour. Blackmores' share price rose as much as 22.4% to A$94, its highest since December 2021. Blackmores shareholders will be able to vote on the offer at a shareholder meeting in July and the companies expect the deal to close in early August.

☆ Dollar, yen buoyed as U.S. banking sector fears put safe-havens back in vogue
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar and the yen, both safe haven assets, were mostly steady after spiking higher overnight as renewed concerns over the U.S. banking sector and economy dented risk sentiment. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, nudged 0.01% higher to 101.80 following a 0.5% increase overnight. The traditional safe-haven gained 2.6% in March amid fears of a widespread banking crisis but has lost 0.6% for the month of April. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a nine-month low in April, data overnight showed, heightening the risk that the economy could fall into recession this year. The Australian dollar was swinging between losses and gains after data showed inflation eased from 33-year highs in the first quarter, while core inflation dipped below forecasts.

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