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TOKYO (AP) — Global shares are mixed Thursday in lackluster trading. U.S. shares were set to drift higher with Dow futures up nearly 0.3% at 39,632.00. Nissan Motor Co. stock jumped 2.2% after an unconfirmed Japanese media report that the automaker behind the Leaf electric car was about to enter an agreement on EVs with domestic rival Honda Motor Co. Honda shares rose 1.1%. Photos You Should See View All 60 ImagesThe Japanese central bank has set a target of 2% inflation. That higher inflation has in turn dashed Wall Street’s hopes that the Federal Reserve could start offering relief at its meeting next week by cutting interest rates.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Sydney's, Hang Seng, , Anderson Alves, Brent Organizations: TOKYO, , CAC, Dow, Nikkei, Nissan Motor Co, Honda Motor Co, Honda, Nissan, Bank of Japan, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Fed, U.S Locations: Hong, Shanghai, ActivTrades, Bank of Japan
EIU also expects the Bank of Japan will exit its negative interest rate policy in the second quarter. Markets currently expect the Fed to start with a 25-basis-point rate cut in June. Euro zoneThe European Central Bank last week also held its policy rate at a record high of 4%, signaling that it won't cut rates before June. JPMorgan said in a research note that the Turkish central bank may cut its policy rate in November and December, keeping its year-end policy rate forecast of 45%. IndonesiaIndonesia's central bank kept its benchmark policy rate at 6% in its recent meeting.
Persons: EIU, Jerome Powell, LSEG, Nomura, Perry Warjiyo, CNBC's JP Ong, BOK, Goldman Sachs, Goohoon Kwon, Kwon Organizations: Getty, Economist Intelligence Unit, Bank of Japan, United, United States U.S, Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Swiss National Bank, UBS, Bank of Canada, Bank of, JPMorgan, Reserve Bank of, ANZ, New Zealand Auckland Savings Bank, Bank, Bank Indonesia, BMI, Fitch Solutions, U.S, Oxford Economics, Macquarie Locations: Czech, China, Japan, United States, Switzerland Swiss, Bank of Canada, Turkey, Turkish, Reserve Bank of Australia, New, Indonesia, South Korea, Asia
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Despite high inflation, the BOJ hasn't really shifted from its ultra-loose monetary policy that has been in place in 2016. Rate cut pivot in 2024Central banks worldwide could make a rate cut pivot in 2024. Boeing crisis hurt airlinesCEOs from several airlines say Boeing's delivery delays have forced the carriers to change their growth plans.
Persons: Thomas Calomiris Organizations: Washington , DC, CNBC, Japan's Nikkei, Dow, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, Economist Intelligence, Boeing, Alaska Airlines Max, Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, United Locations: Washington ,, Asia, BOJ, Central, Beijing
JPMorgan is sticking to its bearish thesis amid a more optimistic outlook on Wall Street, saying investors are ignoring key market risks. The Wall Street firm is an outlier among the major banks when it comes to year-end forecasts. As of Monday's close, JPMorgan expects the S & P 500 will tumble more than 17% to its 2024 target of 4,200, according to CNBC's market strategist survey . The S & P 500 has repeatedly notched all-time highs on the back of the artificial intelligence trade. The AI beneficiary, which has been a major driver for the S & P 500's gains this year, could drag the benchmark should it start to sell off.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Kolanovic, NVDA Organizations: JPMorgan, Bank, America's, Nvidia Locations: Gaza, Ukraine
Gold prices are anticipating the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut this year but the historic move has gotten out of hand, according to Barclays. The precious metal has rallied about 7% over the past month, a move that has been surpassed only 6% of the time over the past decade, analysts led by Stefano Pascale told clients in a note released Tuesday. Gold rose for nine consecutive trading sessions — a near record run — according to the analysts. Large funds that had bet against gold started short covering in the wake of the Fed pivot, while demand for gold from central banks remained high, providing tailwinds for the precious metal. With gold getting ahead of itself, in Barclays' view, the British bank recommends that investors replace long delta positions with options to gain upside exposure, lock-in gains and limit downside risk.
Persons: Stefano Pascale, Pascale Organizations: Federal, Barclays
Hong Kong CNN —Chinese leaders have pledged to achieve an ambitious growth rate this year, while reshaping its economic model to focus on technology innovation. On Tuesday, Premier Li Qiang announced that economic growth target of around 5% for 2024, which he said “will not be easy” to hit, given that a Covid-battered 2022 had provided a lower base of growth for last year. “The level of support is likely too little to rocket the economy to its 5% growth target this year,” said Sarah Tan, an economist at Moody’s, referring to the measures announced by Li Tuesday. “China is walking a tightrope on the fiscal front between infrastructure stimulus and LGFV [local government financing vehicle] deleveraging,” said Goldman Sachs analysts on Wednesday. In order to achieve the ambitious 5% growth target, more specific stimulus is needed, such as increasing manufacturing investments, Liu said.
Persons: Li Qiang, , , Sarah Tan, Li Tuesday, Goldman Sachs, Li, ” Nomura, Xi Jinping, Peiqian Liu, Liu, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, AFP, Getty, Goldman, Fidelity International, People’s Bank of China, Jefferies Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, , Asia,
Dollar ends week under pressure as data keeps rate cut hopes alive
  + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February after holding at 3.7% for three straight months, the data showed. The euro got a lift this week as the dollar came under pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded more confident about cutting interest rates in coming months. Currencies typically weaken if central banks lower interest rates. Against the yen, the dollar was 0.68% lower at 147.05 yen, its weakest since Feb. 2. Firming hopes that interest rates in the U.S. and Europe will start to fall in June also helped prop up the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Stuart Cole, Cole, Powell, Lindsey Bell, Kathleen Brooks, Sterling, BoE, Firming, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Equiti, ECB, Federal, Ventures, Bank of, Reuters, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, New Locations: Japan, Charlotte , North Carolina, Bank of Japan, U.S, Europe, New Zealand
HONG KONG (AP) — China’s exports and imports for the first two months of the year beat estimates, an indication that demand may be improving as Beijing attempts to boost economic recovery. Exports for the January-February period grew 7.1% from a year earlier, customs data released Thursday showed, higher than the 2.3% rise in December. Imports rose 3.5% from the same time last year, up from a 0.2% growth in December. Demand for Chinese exports has also been weak since the Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe and Asia began raising interest rates last year to cool inflation that was at multi-decade highs. China has set a target of around 5% for economic growth this year, Chinese Premier Li Qiang revealed this week at the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress.
Persons: Li Qiang Organizations: , Beijing, Federal Reserve, PMI, National People’s Congress Locations: HONG KONG, China, Europe, Asia
Gold prices held above the $2,100 level on Wednesday, near a record peak hit in the previous session as hopes for U.S. rates easing by mid-year mount, while traders awaited remarks on the economy's health from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Gold prices held above the $2,100 level on Wednesday, near a record peak hit in the previous session as hopes for U.S. rates easing by mid-year mount, while traders awaited remarks on the economy's health from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Spot gold edged down 0.1% at $2,126.13 per ounce, as of 0458 GMT. Spot prices hit a record peak of $2141.59 per ounce overnight on Tuesday, rallying for a fifth straight session. Spot platinum rose 0.4% to $884.16 per ounce, and palladium rose over 1% to $958.20, while silver dropped 0.3% to $23.63.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Ajay Kedia, Kunal Shah Organizations: Federal, Kedia Commodities, Traders, U.S, Nirmal, Commodities Locations: Mumbai, U.S
Gold futures settled at the highest level ever on Monday as traders bet the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in the second half of the year. When adjusted for inflation, gold set an all-time high of about $3,200 in 1980, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. Gold has has performed well despite high interest rates and a strong dollar, he said. Gold now has upside on the expectation that the Fed will start cutting interest rates this year as inflation comes down, hesaid. Traders are betting the Fed will cut rates in June, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool.
Persons: It's, Peter Boockvar, Boockvar, Gold, Bart Melek, Melek Organizations: Federal Reserve, Miners, Bleakley Financial, TD Securities, Fed, Traders, CME Locations: U.S, Ukraine, China, Saudi Arabia
Brendan McDermid | Reuterswatch nowSwiss headline inflation fell from 1.7% in December to 1.3% in January, well below consensus forecasts, while core inflation dropped from 1.5% to 1.2%. Analysts at Capital Economics said the steep decline meant inflation "looks sure to undershoot the SNB's Q1 forecast of 1.8%." "However, with the January inflation downside surprise, the SNB forecast looks too high to us, and the probability of a policy rate cut on 21 March has increased. Bank of Japan to end negative rate era While most major central banks are looking at loosening monetary policy after more than two years of aggressive tightening to combat rampant inflation, the question for the Bank of Japan is the opposite. The country's core inflation rate — which excludes food and energy — fell to 2% year-on-year in January, after a third monthly increase, surprising slightly to the upside and suggesting that a sustainable return to ultra-low inflation may not be in the cards.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Société Générale, Kit Juckes Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, Capital Economics, UBS, Bank of Japan, Bank of Locations: New York City, U.S, Bank of Japan, French
On the surface, it may seem simple — global stocks are rallying, so there must be one universal driver, right? When this happens, the yen should strengthen and improve shareholder value in Japanese stocks, Arone said. "All of that gives you the ingredients you need to push stocks higher — not only U.S. stocks, but global stocks — in the next 12 months or so," he said. "I think that international stocks — Japan, Europe — have more room to go. Similar to Kelly, Kleintop recommended a more broad-based approach to playing this global rally.
Persons: It's, Charles Schwab's, Jeffrey Kleintop, they've, David Kelly, Michael Arone, Kelly, Arone, , Kleintop, Fred Imbert Organizations: U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nikkei, CNBC, Nvidia, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Tokyo Stock Exchange, State, Locations: United States, U.S, Europe, Japan, Korea, China, Asia, America, Eastern Europe, — Japan
As investors ponder how — and where — to invest in this uncertain climate, CNBC Pro asked market experts where they recommend allocating $100,000. "By investing purely in cash and fixed income, you can already get a decent return," Jia said. And with global central banks cutting rates, fixed income will likely benefit from capital gains as well because of the duration." Within fixed income, Jia likes government bonds from developed countries and investment-grade bonds from "reputable firms," which offer "quality" and "longer-term growth" potential. Investors nearing retirement, for instance, should have a more conservative portfolio mix of 80% in fixed income and 20% in equities, according to Jia.
Persons: Paul Christopher —, Christopher, Kevin Teng, Teng, Morgan Stanley, Rickie Jia, Jia, Group's Teng, Pictet's Jia Organizations: Treasury, Wells Fargo Investment, CNBC Pro, Wrise Wealth Management Singapore, U.S . Federal Reserve, Microsoft, Pictet Wealth Management Locations: Wells Fargo, Asia, East, Europe, U.S
Gold prices inched higher on Friday and were on track for their first weekly rise in three, as a broadly weaker U.S. dollar and growing tensions in the Middle East lifted bullion's appeal. Gold prices inched higher on Friday and were on track for their first weekly rise in three, as a broadly weaker U.S. dollar and growing tensions in the Middle East lifted bullion's appeal. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,025.7 per ounce, as of 0411 GMT, and has gained 0.7% so far in the week. Tension mounted in the Middle East as Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on a UK-owned cargo ship, and they targeted Israel's port and resort city of Eilat with ballistic missiles and drones. Meanwhile, the dollar index was heading for its first weekly dip in nearly two months, making the greenback-priced bullion less expensive to overseas buyers.
Persons: Edward Meir, Houthis, Christopher Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, CME Locations: Iran, Eilat
The Bank of Japan headquarters is seen in Tokyo on January 30, 2017. The Bank of Japan will pull the plug on its eight-year negative interest rate policy in April, according to more than 80% of economists polled by Reuters, marking a long-awaited major shift from a global outlier central bank. The Bank of Japan will pull the plug on its eight-year negative interest rate policy in April, according to more than 80% of economists polled by Reuters, marking a long-awaited major shift from a global outlier central bank. Nearly the same proportion of economists, 76%, also expect the BOJ to scrap yield curve control at that meeting, with almost all saying ultra-loose monetary conditions will end then, just months before many major central banks are expected to start cutting rates. The BOJ is on track to end negative interest rates in coming months despite Japan's economy slipping into a recession, sources have previously told Reuters.
Persons: Yoshimasa Maruyama Organizations: Bank of Japan, The Bank of, Reuters, Bank of, Nikko Securities, Daiwa Securities, D Asset Management Locations: Tokyo, The Bank of Japan, Bank of Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of Korea will be one of the first Asian central banks to cut rates, says Goldman SachsGoohoon Kwon, senior Asia economist at Goldman Sachs, says that's partly because of "the ongoing disinflation trend."
Persons: Goldman Sachs Goohoon Kwon, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Email Bank Locations: Korea, Asia
European Central Bank posts first annual loss in two decades
  + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Rain falls over the finance district and the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany. The European Central Bank on Thursday reported its first annual loss since 2004, following hefty payouts due to higher interest rates. The central bank said it will carry forward the loss on its balance sheet to offset against future profits. The central bank began quantitative tightening in March 2023. There is no institution in the economy which can cope with a temporary loss better than the central bank," he told CNBC by email.
Persons: Germany's Bundesbank, Holger Schmieding Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Swiss National Bank, CNBC Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Ukraine
Big deals are back with a $53 billion bang
  + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. This week alone, Capital One agreed to acquire Discover for $35 billion, Truist Financial announced a $15.5 billion sale of its insurance arm, and Walmart shook hands to buy TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion. The trio of transactions, worth a combined $53 billion, have lifted the value of deals announced worldwide this year to $425 billion — a 55% increase from the same period in 2023, Bloomberg estimates. Transactions worth more than $5 billion plunged 60%, from nearly 150 deals in 2021 to fewer than 60 last year, LSE Group found. Potential headwinds include stubborn inflation, a surprise recession, escalating armed conflicts, regulatory crackdowns, and uncertainty over this year's presidential election.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Discover, Truist Financial, Walmart, Bloomberg, Business, London Stock Exchange, LSE Group, dealmaking, Federal Reserve
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Alibaba's overseas betChinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group is placing its bets on overseas businesses as domestic growth remains weak. The company's latest earnings showed its international e-commerce business unit was a bright spot, with revenue up 44% from a year ago. [PRO] UBS picks 'hidden gems'Small-and medium-sized stocks are often overlooked but "have the charm of being hidden gems," according to UBS.
Persons: Hong Organizations: CNBC, People's Bank of China, CSI, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Home Depot, Walmart, Alibaba, Citi, Discover Financial Services, UBS Locations: Chicago, China, Asia, U.S, Europe
That could double central bank's gold purchases, challenging jewelry consumption as the largest driver of gold demand, Doshi elaborated. China and Russian central banks are leading gold purchases, with India, Turkey, and Brazil, also increasing bullion buying. The world's central banks have sustained two successive years of more than 1,000 tons of net gold purchases, the World Gold Council reported in January. Another wildcard scenario highlighted in Citi's report was for oil prices to hit triple digits again. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Oil prices in the past one year
Persons: Doshi, Stagflation Organizations: Citi, CNBC, Central, U.S ., Gold, U.S . Federal Reserves, Co, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Citi's North America, China, Russian, India, Turkey, Brazil, U.S, Bangkok, Thailand, Israel, Yemen, Iraq, OPEC
Brent Lewin | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates later this year and, while that may not be good news for the dollar , some Asian currencies stand to benefit. Higher interest rates boost a country's currency, attracting foreign investment and increasing demand for the country's currency. A weak U.S. dollar is generally positive for emerging markets, which is often the case when the Fed cuts interest rates outside of an economic crisis. Experts told CNBC currencies such as the Chinese yuan , the Korean won and the Indian rupee stand to benefit from the Fed loosening monetary policy. So those are also positive for the Indian currency," said Anindya Banerjee, vice president of currency and derivatives research at Kotak Securities.
Persons: Mahatma Gandhi, Brent Lewin, Yuan, Arun Bharath, Bharath, Simon Harvey ​, , Anindya Banerjee, Banerjee, South Korea's, Monex's Harvey Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, . Federal, CNBC, Korean, Bel Air Investment Advisors, People's Bank of, FX, U.S, Kotak Securities, Bank of, Korea's, South Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, China, People's Bank of China, U.S, Bank of India, India, Europe, America
If productivity is strong, that means the US economy is doing more with less, or being more productive. Productivity is measured by dividing all the goods and services produced in the economy by every hour people worked. “But the economy did well, so that translated into higher productivity, supporting higher wage growth and fending off inflation from accelerating.”Last year’s productivity boom could also be a combination of all of the above. Still, it may be too soon to know if last year’s productivity burst was truly a transformative shift in the US economy. “Sometimes at the very end of an economic cycle, productivity can be boosted by cost-saving measures,” Goodwin of New York Life Investments said.
Persons: ” Lauren Goodwin, Mark Zandi, John Min, Austan Goolsbee, It’s, ” Min, ” Goodwin, Organizations: DC CNN, Labor Department, New York Life Investments, CNN, Microsoft, Meta, Citigroup, Monex, Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg Locations: Washington
Read previewThe tremors rattling US commercial real estate are spreading to other countries and sectors, and threaten to escalate into a financial earthquake as refinancing deadlines loom. There are growing signs that commercial real estate is in serious trouble. AdvertisementProspective losses, refinancing woes, international contagion, and panic selling combine to create a bleak outlook for the commercial property sector. The catalyst for both the banking and commercial real estate drama is deceptively dry: rising interest rates. AdvertisementMoreover, "Undercover Billionaire" star and real estate tycoon Grant Cardone has hailed the ongoing correction as a rare chance for everyday people to buy "trophy real estate" from institutional owners.
Persons: , aren't, Barry Sternlicht, Pfandbriefbank, Warren Buffett, Ian Jacobs, Jacobs, Grant Cardone Organizations: Service, Business, Starwood Capital's, Bloomberg, European Central Bank, New York Community Bancorp, Investors, Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Berkshire Hathaway, Ares Management Locations: Europe, Silicon, San Francisco, New York City, Manhattan, Los Angeles
Now, venture investors are returning. Venture funding for crypto-related companies in the fourth quarter of 2023 totaled $1.9 billion, a 2.5% increase from the prior quarter, PitchBook said Thursday. It marks the first time that venture VC investments in crypto startups have risen since the March quarter of 2022. Problems for crypto ventures were compounded that year by major collapses of crypto companies like Do Kwon's controversial algorithmic stablecoin Terra and Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX. Le said that crypto venture funding has bottomed with a rise in crypto asset prices and public market valuations of crypto-related companies such as Coinbase , Marathon Digital , and MicroStrategy .
Persons: Crypto, PitchBook, It's, Sam Bankman, FTX, Andreessen Horowitz, Le, bitcoin Organizations: Venture, Sequoia Capital, Tiger Global, CNBC, Marathon Locations: FTX
China, however, is having a different problem: Prices are falling at their fastest rate in 15 years. No, that wasn’t a typo, falling prices are a problem when they’re widespread across an economy, like in China, which is experiencing what’s known as deflation. At first glance, falling prices may sound good. Like the US Federal Reserve, most central banks target a 2% annual rate of inflation, not zero inflation whatsoever. “In a deflationary environment monetary policy may not be able to sufficiently stimulate the economy by using its interest rate instrument.
Persons: Organizations: New, New York CNN, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank Locations: New York, China
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