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The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank look poised to make "major progress" in cutting interest rates this year, according to the central bank of central banks. BIS serves as a bank and forum for national central banks, and as such has close understanding of their monetary policies. During its March meeting, the ECB held interest rates steady, but hinted at a June rate cut as it trimmed its annual inflation forecast. The Fed and the Bank of England are expected to shine future light on their plans for interest rates during their monetary policy meetings this week. The Bank of Japan is meanwhile predicted to lift interest rates on Tuesday, according to a Reuters poll, marking a major turn in its nearly two-decade-long cycle of negative interest rates.
Persons: Carstens, Annette Weisbach, disinflation, Philip Lane, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BoE Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank for International, CNBC, BIS, ECB, Bank of England, Goldman, Bank of Japan
The S & P 500 and 30-stock Dow also were lower Friday, but have held up better than the Nasdaq for the week. Sector spotlight: There's a whole lot of red among S & P 500 sectors Friday. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Stocks, Dow, Jensen Huang, Jim, I've, Jensen, Jim Cramer's, Brendan McDermid Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Apple, Adobe, Energy, Valero Energy, Bank of America, Marathon Petroleum, Phillips, Coterra Energy, VanEck Semiconductor, Nvidia, Broadcom, tailwinds, Club, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Traders, New York Stock Exchange Locations: U.S, New York City
In today's big story, we're looking at why Zyn nicotine pouches are becoming the go-to alternative for workers looking for a boost . Zyn, a brand of nicotine pouch, has quickly gained a loyal following among some workers looking for a boost during the day. There was a 62% year-over-year bump in the amount of flavored nicotine pouches shipped in the US in 2023. Containers of "Zyn" nicotine pouches. He said the nicotine pouches were too accessible and gave him migraines.
Persons: , Michael M, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Sarah Jackson, Tim Paradis, Sarah, Tim, it's, Zyn, Tim he'll, vaping, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, Samantha Lee, Stanley, Max, Bob Jordan, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Getty, Wall Street, Republican, New York Stock Exchange, UBS, Electronic Arts, Verizon, Ford, Reading, Airlines, Boeing Locations: Copenhagen, New, Wall St , New York, USA, Oxford, New York, London
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In today's big story, we're looking at a potential exodus of stars from YouTube and what it means for the creator economy. What's on deck:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. AdvertisementBut some people who helped fuel YouTube's rise are walking away from the platform that gave them their big break. TikTok's challenges represent the ongoing uncertainty content creators face trying to make a living in such an unpredictable and shrinking world.
Persons: , we've, Rebecca Zisser, It's, Insider's Lindsay Dodgson, MatPat, Lindsay, Andy Kiersz, Critics, it's, Alistair Barr, Dan, Jamie Dimon doesn't, Dimon, Karim Qubadi, Abanti Chowdhury, OpenAI, Musk's, Christopher Nolan's, Tyler Le, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Service, YouTube, Business, Nielsen, Gaming, ISI, SensorTower, BI, CPI, JPMorgan, Elon, University of Chicago, Quest, realtors, Meta, Google, Companies, Adidas Locations: United States, New York, London
Fed officials have said rate cuts are coming soon, but inflation must still cool further. Markets are placing the greatest odds on a rate cut in June, fed fund futures show. AdvertisementFederal Reserve officials have said interest rate cuts are coming this year, but there's not an exact date in their outlook just yet. Those expectations were little changed after Tuesday's inflation report, which showed CPI came in hotter than expected in February. Reducing our policy rate too soon could result in requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent in the longer run."
Persons: , there's, CME's, Jerome Powell, " Neel Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Christopher Waller Organizations: Service, Federal, Bank of America, Capital, Capital Economics, Labor
Wells Fargo 's run of form continued Wednesday, with shares hitting another 52-week high. Wall Street analysts see more upside ahead for what's been the best-performing major U.S. bank stock in 2024. Shares of Wells Fargo have surged nearly 18% year-to-date, compared to the S & P 500 's 8.5% advance over the same stretch. Higher for longer Both analysts said a higher-for-longer interest rate environment creates a favorable setup for a money center bank like Wells Fargo. As the expectations for Fed cuts this year have been coming down, Wells Fargo stock has been climbing.
Persons: Wells, what's, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley —, , RBC Capital Market's Gerard Cassidy, Piper Sandler's Scott Siefers, Jim Cramer, RBC's Cassidy, Cash, Cassidy, Piper's Siefers, Siefers, Charlie Scharf, Scharf, that's, Jerome Powell, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Wall, Peers, JPMorgan, Wells, CNBC, RBC Capital, Federal Reserve, Wells Fargo, Capital, Getty Locations: Wells Fargo, Wells, Basel
That's because aggressive Fed rate hikes haven't been fully felt across the economy. AdvertisementA wave of layoffs could be coming as companies deal with the reality of higher interest rates, economists say. The peak unemployment rate during the Great Recession was 10% in 2009. Following revisions to the prior two months' figures, the unemployment rate also rose to 3.9% in February, its highest level in two years. The unemployment rate is a classic lagging indicator."
Persons: David Rosenberg, , what's, Steve Briggs, Briggs, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Briggs, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fitch
The US economy won't dodge a hard landing recession, according to Stephanie Pomboy. That could be followed by a "double-dip" profit recession as corporate earnings take a hit. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe US economy can't avoid a hard-landing recession, according to one top economist. She warned in a recent interview of a coming "double-dip" profit recession for US companies, which could cause earnings to nosedive and spark big problems for the economy.
Persons: Stephanie Pomboy, , Pomboy, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, ISI, Rosenberg Research
Key takeaways from the latest jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
“The economy remains strong, held up by a robust labor market,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist with FwdBonds, in a note Friday. Still, Friday’s jobs report also showed that the whopping gains initially recorded for January and December were revised down by a combined 167,000 jobs. January’s job gains now sit at an estimated 229,000 (down from the blowout 353,000); and December’s job growth at 290,000 (down from 333,000). In February, that included construction (up 23,000 jobs); transportation and warehousing (up 19,700 jobs); and retail (up 18,700 jobs). Friday’s jobs report showed that wage growth is indeed slowing.
Persons: , Christopher Rupkey, FwdBonds, , ” Robert Frick, , ” Diane Swonk, Swonk, February’s, ” Frick, Julissa Carielo, ” Swonk, Gus Faucher, Lydia Boussour, EY, Boussour, Janet Yellen, CNN’s Kate Bolduan, they’re, ” Yellen, Price, CNN’s Bryan Mena Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, Navy Federal Credit Union, CNN, KPMG US, Health, Baby Boomers, Transportation Security Administration, DreamOn, Inc, Boomers, Fed, Labor, Federal, PNC Financial Services, “ Fed Locations: New York, San Antonio , Texas, Texas
The real estate market is "collateral damage" in the Fed's inflation fight, Barry Sternlicht said. AdvertisementThe commercial real estate market is hurting, and that's largely thanks to the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes which have battered the economy, real estate billionaire Barry Sternlicht said. In an interview on "In Depth with Graham Bensinger," the real estate investor and Starwood Capital CEO sounded off the Fed's policy-tightening campaign since early 2022. AdvertisementLast year, Sternlicht warned of a "Category 5 hurricane" coming for the real estate market, which he believed could be followed by a recession. Still, Sternlicht said he was optimistic about the real estate market going forward, and while property prices have plunged, that creates investment opportunity.
Persons: Barry Sternlicht, I've, Sternlicht, , Graham Bensinger, Morgan Stanley, Sternlict, Powell, Joe Biden Organizations: Starwood, Service, Starwood Capital CEO, Bloomberg, Fed, Wall, Infrastructure Investment, Investors
What to expect in Friday’s jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
New York CNN —Don’t be surprised if Friday’s jobs report shows that February’s employment gains were far below those reported for January. In fact, it would continue a history-making stretch of labor market expansion. Friday’s jobs report could very well provide a more reliable read on what’s actually happening in the labor market than the jobs reports of recent months’ past, Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, told CNN. “And so, February might give us a better understanding of the underlying rate of job growth,” she said. What the other labor market data is showingOther economic data released this week reinforces the idea that the US labor market is cooling but remains on solid footing.
Persons: New York CNN — Don’t, Julia Pollak, autoworkers, what’s, hasn’t, Nixon, ” Ron Hetrick, Gus Faucher, stayers ”, Faucher, , ” Nela Richardson, outplacement, ” Andrew Challenger, Lydia Boussour, EY, Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, of Labor Statistics, PNC Financial Services, BLS, Labor, Boomers, ADP, Challenger, , Labor Department Locations: New York, US
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Jim Cramer has been saying for weeks now that the economy is too strong to consider rate cuts. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell's, didn't, Powell, Locker, there's, Jeff Marks, Berenberg, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Club, Management, Wall Street, Honeywell, Berenberg Bank Locations: FL
Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, said on Wednesday that he thinks the central bank will begin to lower borrowing costs in 2024 but that policymakers still needed to gain “greater confidence” that inflation was conquered before making a move. “We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle,” Mr. Powell said in remarks prepared for testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. “If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year.”The Fed next meets on March 19-20, but few investors expect officials to lower interest rates at that gathering. Markets see the Fed’s June meeting as a more likely candidate for the first rate cut, and are betting that central bankers could lower borrowing costs three or four times by the end of the year. The Fed chair warned against cutting rates too early — before inflation is sufficiently snuffed out — noting that “reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of progress we have seen in inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy.”
Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr, Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial Services, Fed
Gold hovers near one-month peak on slowing U.S. inflation
  + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices hovered near a month high on Friday after data suggested easing U.S. price pressures, while traders awaited remarks from several Federal Reserve officials. Gold prices hovered near a month high on Friday after data suggested easing U.S. price pressures, while traders awaited remarks from several Federal Reserve officials. Gold traders rejoiced the fact that core-PCE slowed annually," City Index senior analyst Matt Simpson said. Money market pricing shows traders are pricing in three quarter-point U.S. rate cuts for 2024. "Whilst negative ETF flows are capping gold prices, China's central bank is a key reason that gold prices remain supported, as they were the second highest purchaser of gold reserves in the fourth quarter," Simpson said.
Persons: Matt Simpson, Simpson Organizations: Federal Reserve, PCE, Index, U.S
The dollar was steady on Friday after data showed U.S. inflation remained sticky but easing gradually, keeping alive the chance of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June, while the yen slid back to the key 150 per dollar level. The data showed U.S. prices picked up in January in line with expectations, while annual inflation slipped to the lowest in three years. Takata's comments stoked expectations that the central bank could end negative rates in March rather than the widely held view of a move in April. The contrasting comments are likely to keep investors guessing about the next move from the central bank. The Australian dollar rose 0.08% to $0.65025, while the New Zealand dollar was little changed at $0.6088.
Persons: Raphael Bostic, Hajime Takata, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Traders, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, Bank of Japan, New Zealand Locations: United States, U.S, Atlanta
The bank also keeps a close eye on core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. That annual figure dropped to 3.1 from 3.3 percent, but it is still significantly above the headline number. In Spain, the annual rate dropped to 2.9 percent from 3.5 percent in January. Italy and Latvia had the lowest inflation rates, below 1 percent. Bottom Line: It’s all about energy prices.
Persons: ” Carsten Brzeski Organizations: ING Locations: Central, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Latvia, Austria, Croatia, Estonia
A hard landing is guaranteed for the US Morgan Stanley's chief US economist. That's because the full impacts of Fed tightening haven't been fully felt in the economy. It could take 18 months after the last rate hike to feel the full weight of higher rates, economists say. Zentner is expecting the US to avoid a recession this year, as there's no data to support a soon-to-come downturn. AdvertisementStill, signs point to the Fed keeping interest rates elevated as it keeps an eye on inflation.
Persons: US Morgan Stanley's, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's, Zentner, Jamie Dimon's Organizations: US, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Analytics, Bank, Investors
The 2-year Treasury yield was last more than two basis points higher to 4.7413%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher on Friday as investors considered the path ahead for interest rates after fresh comments from Federal Reserve speakers. Investors considered the uncertain outlook for interest rates, especially when and how often they would be cut this year. Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday said that he was looking for more evidence that inflation was cooling before cutting interest rates. January's consumer price index and producer price index readings had both come in hotter than expected, raising concerns about whether inflation is more persistent than many had hoped for.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed
This picture taken on Jan.12, 2024 shows onshore oil pumps in Tutong district in Brunei. Oil prices fell on Friday after a U.S. Fed official said interest rate cuts should be delayed at least two more months. Higher interest rates for longer slow economic growth, which curbs oil demand. Waller also pushed back on the idea that the Fed risks sending the economy into recession if it waits too long to cut rates, saying the Fed can afford to "wait a little longer". Oil futures had settled higher on Thursday as hostilities continued in the Red Sea, with Iran-aligned Houthis stepping up attacks near Yemen to show support for Palestinians in the Gaza war.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Benjamin Netanyahu's Organizations: U.S, Fed, Brent, West Texas, . Federal, Israel Locations: Tutong district, Brunei, U.S, Red, Iran, Yemen, Gaza, Paris
Yen sinks as currency traders keep short and carry on
  + stars: | 2024-02-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen is the worst-performing G10 currency this year, with a 6.4% slide on the dollar. For the week the yen is down 0.6% on the euro, touching its weakest for three months overnight at 163.45 per euro . Yen moves against the dollar were more modest due to the risk its slide could prompt intervention in markets from Japan, with officials reminding traders they stand ready in recent days. The dollar gained 0.1% to trade at 150.41 yen this week. Investors can earn interest, or carry, by borrowing yen around 0% and buying income-bearing assets in other currencies.
Persons: Moh Siong Sim, Sterling, Christine Lagarde, Christopher Waller Organizations: New, Deutsche, Britain, of Singapore, U.S, European Central Bank Locations: Japan, New Zealand, Friday's Asia, U.S, Europe
While most of the market's attention has been on interest rates, the Federal Reserve is quietly getting ready to loosen policy in another respect as it prepares to slow down the shedding of assets on its balance sheet. Tapering down the roll-off could see the Fed reducing the caps in half, according to a projection from BNP Paribas. The QT program has resulted in a nearly $1.3 trillion reduction in total holdings, with the total balance sheet now standing at about $7.7 trillion. With confidence growing that inflation is easing, policymakers are looking to loosen up policy, albeit at a measured pace. So at this meeting, we did have some discussion of the balance sheet, and we're planning to begin in-depth discussions of balance sheet issues at our next meeting in March," Chair Jerome Powell said in his January post-meeting news conference .
Persons: Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, We're, Jerome Powell, we're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Evercore ISI, Fed, MBS, New York Fed, BNP Paribas, BNP
The investor of "The Big Short" fame said inflation could rise if the Fed cuts rates too early. AdvertisementThe best thing the Fed can do right now is nothing, because cutting interest rates too early risks sparking a "worst-case" scenario, according to "The Big Short" investor Steve Eisman. That caused inflation to skyrocket past 14% in 1980, while effective interest rates in the economy notched 19% the following year. The Fed has been fighting inflation since March 2022, when central bankers began their campaign to aggressively raise interest rates and tighten financial conditions. Fed officials have said they aren't poised to cut interest rates until they're more confident inflation will return to the 2% price target.
Persons: Steve Eisman, , Eisman Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Fed, Deutsche Bank
Yet two months into 2024, Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues seems to have nearly pulled off what many would have called a miracle not long ago. Between a rock and a hard placeThe January Fed meeting minutes reinforced policymakers' careful approach for the months ahead. AdvertisementTo be sure, as far as policy expectations, markets have only recently arrived on the same page as the Fed. "The Fed doesn't want to be seen as having allowed inflation to reignite," he added. "The Fed doesn't want to undo all the good work they've done, and needlessly push the economy into a recession."
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell, James McCann, Abrdn, Gene Goldman, CME's, Gregory Draco, Draco, Larry Summers, Summers, Cetera's Goldman, Goldman, Abrdn's McCann, McCann Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Co, Fed, Cetera Investment Management, Bloomberg
In today's big story, we're looking at why M&A could be staging a comeback and which bankers made the most of 2023 . The big storyDealmaker's delighttatomm/iStock, Tyler Le/BIThree monster deals announced in less than a week has Wall Street wondering: Is M&A back? But after a dreadful 2022 and 2023, dealmaking is showing signs of life, Business Insider's Theron Mohamed writes. Capital One, Truist, and Walmart announced acquisitions totaling $53 billion this week, leaving bankers hopeful the good times (and fees) are back. Deals represent an exit opportunity for companies, giving their investors (some of whom are employees) a chance to cash out.
Persons: Tyler Le, Theron Mohamed, Biden, Alex Morrell, Reed Alexander, Alyssa Powell, Emily Stewart, Wall, it's, M, Getty, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Jensen Huang, Goldman Sachs, Carlos Delgado, Associated Press Rivian, Rivian, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Business, Federal Reserve, Walmart, Activision Blizzard, ExxonMobil, Cisco, Acquisitions, Activision, Wall Street, Big Tech, Nvidia, ING, Microsoft, Associated Press, BI, Google, Walgreens, Sunshine State, CVS, Intuit, Nestle, Square Locations: Europe, Florida, VillageMD, New York, London
An under-the-radar recession indicator in the bond market is raising alarm that the economy could be heading for a hard landing, according to ING Economics. Strategists at the analytics firm pointed to a tight correlation between US Treasury yields and Bund yields in Europe, with both yields slipping in recent weeks as markets reprice their interest rate expectations over the short-run. That was the case in the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in early 2023, when a sell-off fueled by the collapse of SVB led Treasury yields and Bund yields to tumble in tandem. "The correlation between UST and Bund yields is significantly elevated, which usually points to a hard-landing narrative," strategists said in a note on Wednesday. New York Fed economists, meanwhile, are pricing in a 61% chance the economy could tip into recession by January of next year.
Persons: SVB Organizations: ING Economics, Treasury, Business, European Central Bank, ING, Bank, UST, Bund, ECB, New York Fed Locations: Europe, Silicon
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