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☆ One year of war in Europe: How the dollar, energy and food prices swirled
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted economies and markets around the world, from energy and food prices to European banks, emerging market stocks and the Russian currency. Below are five charts that show how Europe's biggest conflict since World War Two has shaped global financial markets in the last 12 months. But when Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine in late February, European natural gas prices rocketed by almost 400% in two weeks. Energy prices soared, bringing the threat of blackouts, recession and a worrying switch back to dirtier sources of fuel. Food price pressures are easing, but that does little to soften the blow for many developing nations, where food and energy prices make up a larger share of spending.

European gas prices rallied in the run-up to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine begun almost exactly a year ago and they leapt to record highs when Russia subsequently cut supplies of relatively cheap pipeline gas. Although European prices have eased to around 50 euros ($53) per megawatt hour (MWh) from last August's peak of more than 340 euros, they remain above historic averages. That was even when they had received significant levels of Russian gas on long-term contracts prior to the shut down of the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany in August. Nord Stream's closure drove up European gas prices, as well as liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices, which also hit record levels of around 70 million British thermal units (mmBtu), compared with around $16 now . That could be tricky as the fall in gas prices this year has reduced the incentive to avoid the fuel.

☆ Taiwan c.bank will adopt 'appropriate' monetary policy next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TAIPEI, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Taiwan's central bank said on Saturday it will adopt an "appropriate" monetary policy and properly use various tools to promote price stability and help the economy next year. Taiwan's trade-dependent economy is flagging in the face of mounting global economic woes, with its exports last month dropping 13.1% on-year, though inflation, a key central bank concern, has been slowing. It will "adopt an appropriate monetary policy and properly use various monetary policy tools" to "promote price stability and assist in economic success", it said, without elaborating. The central bank will hold its quarterly rate-setting meeting on Thursday. At its meeting next week the central bank will also provide an updated forecast for economic growth this year and next.

☆ UK inflation expectations match nine-year high: BoE survey
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Central bankers watch surveys of inflation expectations closely for signs that people and businesses expect above-target inflation to become entrenched, influencing wage-bargaining and pricing strategies - though not all officials are convinced the data offer a meaningful guide to future behaviour. Not all the survey measures were so negative, however. Some other measures of inflation expectations have shown more of a decline in expectations than the BoE survey. A survey by Citi and YouGov, conducted on Nov. 22 and Nov. 23, showed inflation expectations for five to 10-years' time had fallen to 3.9% in November from a peak of 4.8% in August. The BoE survey took place from Nov. 4 to Nov. 7, just after the BoE raised rates by three quarters of a percentage point to 3%.

☆ Dollar edges up, investors weigh outlooks for rates and economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Next week brings a raft of major central bank decisions, including those from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The key question for traders and investors is whether inflation has reached a peak, giving policymakers more scope to deliver smaller interest-rate rises over the coming months. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has fallen almost continuously since hitting a 15-year high in late October, having shed almost a full percentage point. The 10-year yield was last up 5 bps at 3.45%, having neared is lowest in almost three months overnight. Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Exports also benefited from the restart of a PDVSA-Chevron crude upgrader at their Petropiar joint venture in the Orinoco Belt. Nearby, one of Petrolera Sinovensa's two crude blending plants operated by PDVSA and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) also resumed work. Venezuelan PDVSA's crude processing facilities restarted operations after outages and a lack of diluents, leading to a sale increase in November. PDVSA also sent about 38,000 bpd of crude, fuel oil and gasoline blend stock to key political ally Cuba. Another Iran-flagged tanker in Venezuela, the Huge, is also expected to navigate back carrying fuel oil for NICO this month as part of an oil swap with PDVSA, according to the documents.

☆ Russian economy shrinks 1.7% in Jan-Sept, but capital investment up
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Brendan O'Brien | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Capital investment rose 5.9% year-on-year between January and September to reach 16.418 trillion roubles ($271.65 billion), Rosstat said. Data also showed that retail sales, the gauge of consumer demand, declined 9.7% in October in year-on-year terms after a 9.8% fall in the previous month. All that comes as consumer prices climbed for the 10th week running, perhaps giving the central bank pause for thought. The Bank of Russia is widely expected to keep its key rate unchanged at 7.5% when its board meets on Dec. 16. ($1 = 60.4390 roubles)Reporting by Alexander Marrow and Darya Korsunskaya; Editing by Mark TrevelyanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ U.S. consumer confidence at four-month low; house price growth slows
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The labor market has remained resilient despite the Federal Reserve's stiff interest rate increases, helping to keep consumer spending and the overall economy afloat. "That tectonic shift in consumer confidence from inflation worries to job concerns is coming though." The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 100.2, the lowest reading since July, from 102.2 in October. Though house prices have came off the record highs reached during the COVID-19 pandemic-driven housing market boom, they remain significantly high. A third report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed house prices increased 11.0% in the 12 months through September after advancing 12.0% in August.

☆ Hyundai Motor, SK On in EV battery supply pact in N. America
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SEOUL, Nov 29 (Reuters) - South Korea's Hyundai Motor Group and battery maker SK On have signed a pact on the supply of electric vehicle (EV) batteries in North America, the companies said on Tuesday. In a statement, SK On said the memorandum of understanding (MOU) lets the two companies cooperate in providing its batteries to the auto group’s plants in the United States after 2025 for production of electric vehicles. It added that the partnership allows the two firms to shape a response to the U.S. tax credit qualifications required under August's Inflation Reduction Act. From next year, at least 40% of the value of critical minerals for batteries will have to come from the United States or a U.S. free-trade partner in order to receive tax credits, a threshold set to rise to 80% in 2027. Reporting by Heekyong Yang and Joyce Lee; Editing by Clarence FernandezOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ U.S. house annual prices slow again in September
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - U.S. single-family home prices slowed further in September as higher mortgage rates eroded demand, closely watched surveys showed on Tuesday. Monthly house prices fell in July for the first time since late 2018. House prices rose 10.6% year-on-year in September, slowing from August's increase of 12.9%. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate breached 7% in October for the first time since 2002, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed. Tight supply will, however, likely keep a floor under house prices.

☆ UK house price rally to end next year but no big crash expected
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

House prices fell for the first time in 28 months in October, according to a survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors which also showed a measure of expectations for house prices in 12 months' time slumped. During the financial crisis house prices fell around 19% from peak to trough but have since roughly doubled, according to Land Registry data. When asked about the chance of a price crash within a year nine of 16 respondents said it was high or very high. Rating the value of national house prices on a scale of 1 to 10 from extremely cheap to extremely expensive, the median response from analysts was 8, up from August's 7 estimate. In London, usually bolstered by foreign investment and a dearth of supply, the median forecast showed prices would fall 7.0% next year.

While supply concerns have eased, the main dynamic behind the price retreat has been weakness in the residential construction sector in China, which takes about 70% of iron ore that is exported by sea. Given that construction accounts for more than a third of China's total steel demand, the ongoing weakness in residential property has been a cloud over iron ore's outlook. A recovery may be on the cards in November, with commodity analysts Kpler estimating that seaborne iron ore imports will be around 96.87 million tonnes. But the overall message from iron ore imports this year is that they will likely be slightly lower in 2022 than last year. While the market tends to focus on weakness in residential property construction, total construction has been holding up far better.

Economic output shrank by 0.2% in the third quarter, less than the 0.5% contraction analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll, Friday's official data showed. The Bank of England said last week that Britain's economy was set to go into a recession that would last two years if interest rates were to rise as much as investors had been pricing. Even without further rate hikes, the economy would shrink in five of the six quarters until the end of 2023, it said. "Fears of a recession are turning into reality," Suren Thiru, economics director for the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said. In September alone, when the funeral of Queen Elizabeth was marked with a one-off public holiday that shut many businesses, Britain's economy shrank by 0.6%, the Office for National Statistics said.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - China's imports of crude oil rebounded in October, but the details aren't as strong as the headline number suggests. PetroChina started trial operations at a 200,000 bpd crude unit at its new refinery in Guangdong, while Shendong Petrochemical is also starting operations at its new 320,000 bpd plant in Jiangsu province. This appears to have resulted in China boosting imports from the kingdom, with Refinitiv Oil Research estimating that October arrivals were 1.91 million bpd, up from 1.84 million bpd in September. Rising exports of refined products are also acting as a spur to crude imports, with 4.46 million tonnes of fuel being shipped out in October. This was down from September's 1.5 million bpd and August's 1.23 million bpd, but it's worth noting that the past three months have been strongest since July last year.

☆ Biden says coal plants will be replaced by cheaper solar and wind power. Joe Manchin says he owes coal workers 'an immediate and public apology.'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US will be replacing coal plants across the country, President Biden said last Friday. "No one is building new coal plants because they can't rely on it," he said. Nearly one-third of the country's coal plants have been shut down since 2008. While President Biden is unlikely to use his authority to directly shut down US coal plants, legislation like the IRA undoubtedly lays the groundwork for a shift away from the industry moving forward. Even before oil and gas prices surged earlier this year, solar and wind energy was already cheaper to produce.

☆ U.S. payrolls surged by 261,000 in October, better than expected as hiring remains strong
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Although the number was better than expected, it still marked the slowest pace of job gains since December 2020. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 261,000 for the month while the unemployment rate moved higher to 3.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday. Those payroll numbers were better than the Dow Jones estimate for 205,000 more jobs, but worse than the 3.5% estimate for the unemployment rate. Traders expect the Fed to enact another .5 percentage point increase in February. The unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage point even though the labor force participation rate declined by one-tenth of a point to 62.2%.

☆ Labor costs show slower rise, while trade deficit widens and jobless claims nudge lower
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The cost of labor rose less than expected, but low productivity helped keep the pressure on inflation in the third quarter, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. Unit labor costs, a measure of productivity against compensation, increased 3.5% for the July-to-September period, below the 4% Dow Jones estimate and down from 8.9% in the second quarter. Labor market data released Thursday showed that the jobs picture hasn't changed much. Continuing claims, which run a week behind the headline number, increased 47,000 to 1.485 million, the Labor Department reported. The jobs data come the day before the Labor Department releases its nonfarm payrolls report for October, which is expected to show a gain of 205,000.

☆ Russian retail sales fall deeper, jobless rate rises in Sept - data
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Summary This content was produced in Russia where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in UkraineMOSCOW, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Russian retail sales fell deeper and the jobless rate slightly increased in September, official data from the state statistics service Rosstat showed on Wednesday, after the Kremlin announced its first mobilisation since World War Two. Since September, the Kremlin has called up around 300,000 reservists for what it calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands have fled the country since then fearing being forced to fight in the conflict. According to Rosstat, Russian retail sales plunged 9.8% in September in year-on-year terms after an 8.8% fall in the previous month and the jobless rate increased to 3.9% of the workforce from August's record low of 3.8%. read moreAccording to Rosstat, real disposable incomes extended their drop this year and fell 3.4% in the third quarter of 2022 in year-on-year terms, after an 8.9% rise in the same period of last year.

☆ Despite the odds, the Great Resignation lives on
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Madison Hoff | Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

According to Pollak, "the overall trend is back towards less turnover in the labor market, higher retention numbers." At the industry-level, the quit rate in construction slipped to 2.0% after two consecutive months at 2.7%. The quit rate for professional and business services, for instance, increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2%. There were 10.7 million job openings in September according to Tuesday's release. But while a lot of job openings might seem like a good thing for the economy, it could spell danger ahead.

☆ Job openings surged in September despite Fed efforts to cool labor market
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Job openings surged in September despite Federal Reserve efforts aimed at loosening up a historically tight labor market that has helped feed the highest inflation readings in four decades. Employment openings for the month totaled 10.72 million, well above the FactSet estimate for 9.85 million, according to data Tuesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The latest numbers are unlikely to sway central bank officials from approving what likely will be a fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase this week. That was slightly better than the Dow Jones estimate for 50.0 but 0.9 percentage point lower than September. Markets are pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a 0.75 percentage point increase, while narrowly expecting another 0.5 percentage point move in December, according to CME Group data.

☆ U.S. Treasury yields drop ahead of data releases, Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell back below the 4% mark and was last trading at around 3.9881% at 5 a.m. The 2-year Treasury yield declined by around 6 basis points to 4.4369%. U.S. Treasury yields declined Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's November meeting and as investors awaited key jobs and manufacturing growth data. JOLTs job openings data for September and ISM's October manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers' index) are due to be released on Tuesday. Concern about the Federal Reserve's series of interest rate hikes leading to an economic slowdown has been spreading among traders.

☆ U.S. consumer spending beat expectations in September; inflation still rising
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.6% last month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Data for August was revised higher to show spending increasing 0.6% instead of 0.4% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending gaining 0.4%. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% last month after a similar gain in August. The consumer price index increased 8.2% year-on-year in September.

☆ U.S. new home sales fall in September; prices remain high
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

New home sales decreased 10.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 603,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. August's sales pace was revised down to 677,000 units from the previously reported 685,000 units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for about 10% of U.S. home sales, declining to a rate of 585,000 units. Sales of previously owned homes fell for an eighth straight month in September, while homebuilding dropped, reports showed last week. At September's sales pace it would take 9.2 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, up from 8.1 months in August.

LONDON, Oct 26 (Reuters) - A rebound in China's refinery processing and fuel exports in September was still not enough to prevent the world's biggest crude oil importer from adding to its stockpiles. However, the total volume of crude available to refineries was 13.88 million bpd, comprising imports of 9.79 million bpd and domestic output of 4.09 million bpd. This means that the volume of crude available was 60,000 bpd more than what was processed, implying a small build in crude oil inventories despite the recovery in refinery throughput. The small build in September was a marked contrast to August, when about 850,000 bpd were added to commercial or strategic stockpiles. While Chinese diesel exports may result in a lower profit margin for producing the fuel at other refiners in Asia, it's likely to remain highly profitable.

☆ Alaska GOP censures Mitch McConnell for supporting incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski over Trump-backed challenger Kelly Tshibaka
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Warren Rojas | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Alaska GOP has rebuked Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for supporting Sen. Lisa Murkowski. Donald Trump and state officials want Murkowski gone for supporting his second impeachment. State officials censured Murkowski for the same thing last summer. "The Alaska Republican Party has just told him to butt out of our state," Tshibaka, who got the Alaska GOP's endorsement in July 2021, told the Post. She added that "the millions of dollars Mitch McConnell is spending on lies about me" could be put to better use elsewhere.

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