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Investors had lately been hoping the Fed might start easing back on policy starting in June, with three rate cuts penciled in for the year. But a robust labor market, as reflected in last week's March payrolls, and this latest consumer inflation data have pushed back that view. Markets now anticipate the first cut might come in September, with just two quarter-point reductions for the whole year. Even so, investors anticipate that markets may be able to take fewer rate cuts in stride so long as the Fed isn't actually forced to raise rates. Varghese still leans toward equities, expecting as many as three rate cuts this year, though he anticipates the first cut might not come until July now.
Persons: Federal Reserve doesn't, Stocks, isn't, Ayako Yoshioka, Yoshioka, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Sonu Varghese, Varghese, Powell, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Carson Group, CPI
Overall, however, markets — including global stocks — are still very much deep in positive territory. The S & P 500 is up around 9.6% year-to-date, and in fact hit new record highs in March . Global stocks outside of the U.S. have also had a nice run, with the FTSE All World Ex US index rising nearly 8% year-to-date. Stocks with a 14-day RSI higher than 70 are likely overbought and may be due for a pullback. These are among the top overbought names in the S & P 500, according to FactSet.
Organizations: Dow Jones, Global, FTSE, U.S, Commonwealth Financial Network, CNBC Pro, Vanguard FTSE Locations: Ukraine
"While investors seem to be anxiously awaiting easing monetary policy, the current environment does not quite scream 'rate cuts!'" That sentiment has manifested itself lately in market pricing. That same day, the Labor Department will release the CPI report, which is expected to show the headline inflation rate rising 3.4% in March on a year-over-year basis, per Dow Jones. This is nonetheless "the right time to cut rates," wrote David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. "What has underpinned this market is the promise of a series of rate cuts including March, and now it has dwindled to just a few rate cuts.
Persons: Glenmede, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Ed Yardeni, nonfarm, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Labor Department, Asset Management, Fed, DataTrek, Yardeni, LPL
The regional Stoxx 600 closed up 0.5%, with mining stocks up 2% and media stocks down 0.2%. The benchmark index dropped 1.2% last week, its worst performance since January after a run of consistent gains. European stocks closed higher Monday at the start of a busy a week of key data releases and central bank decisions. U.S. stocks also had a shaky week, though a stronger-than-expected jobs report released Friday boosted sentiment around the economy and earnings. The European Central Bank meets Thursday for its latest monetary policy decision.
Persons: Neel Kashkari Organizations: Federal, Minneapolis, European Central Bank
CNBC Daily Open: Safe havens in vogue
  + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Clement Tan | In Clemtan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down Thursday 1.35% at 38,596.98 in its biggest loss since March 2023 and fourth-straight daily loss. Trusting ZuckerbergMeta shares soared to an intraday record on Thursday, outperforming the broader market after Jefferies and RBC Capital analysts raised their price targets. [PRO] Pre-earnings upgradesAnalysts have become more bullish on six stocks from around the world this week, raising their price targets ahead of the quarterly earnings release season.
Persons: Brent, nonfarm payrolls, Dow, Zuckerberg, Meta, Jefferies Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, West Texas, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, U.S . Federal, Ford, Jefferies, RBC Capital
Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesCrypto startup Ripple is the latest major player to jump into the $150 billion stablecoin market with the launch of a digital currency pegged to the U.S. dollar. The move would pit Ripple against stablecoin giants like Tether, which is behind the largest stablecoin UDST, and USDC issuer Circle. Payments giant PayPal , meanwhile, launched its own U.S. dollar stablecoin called PayPal USD, a stablecoin backed by U.S. dollars and dollar equivalents that is issued by crypto firm Paxos. watch nowTether is the market leader for stablecoins with a market capitalization of $106.3 billion, according to CoinGecko data. "In fact, the number one request we get from the XRP community is to launch a USD-backed stablecoin on the XRP Ledger."
Persons: Jakub Porzycki, Brad Garlinghouse, he's, Garlinghouse, Tether's, USDT, USDC, MoneyGram Organizations: U.S, SEC, Nurphoto, Getty, U.S ., PayPal, CNBC, Bank, FinCEN, Santander, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Southern, of Locations: U.S, Europe, Asia, New York, Ireland, Singapore, of New York
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. During the Club's Morning Meeting, Jim Cramer said he's monitoring the potential impact of the massive earthquake in Taiwan on semiconductor production there. Jim Cramer called Eaton the "most megatrend big cap story there is," citing positives for the company from industrialization and artificial intelligence. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .
Persons: Jim Cramer, Eaton, Jim, Procter, Estee Lauder, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, ADP, Treasury, Wall, Barclays, Procter, Gamble, JPMorgan Locations: Taiwan
What’s open and closed on Easter Day 2024?
  + stars: | 2024-03-30 | by ( Ramishah Maruf | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
On Easter Sunday, Christians celebrate the resurrection of Jesus Christ on the third day after his crucifixion. Here’s what’s open and closed on Easter Sunday 2024. Most Kroger stores and the grocery stores under its umbrella will be open on Easter, the company said. Postal servicesSince it’s a Sunday, United States Postal Service won’t be delivering mail. There will be no UPS pickup or delivery service, and UPS Store locations may be closed but Express Critical will be available.
Persons: Jesus Christ, Jesus, TJ Maxx Organizations: New, New York CNN, National Retail Federation, Retail, Costco, Sam’s, Kroger, Shoppers, Walmart, New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, United States Postal Service, FedEx Locations: New York, HomeGoods, Sierra
Stellar stock-market returns have boosted Americans' retirement account balances. The number of 401(k) millionaires is up and average account balances are the highest in two years. Markets are volatileInvesting experts also caution against the belief that the market will keep producing strong returns year after year. Markets are up big (+20%) or negative nearly two-thirds of the time whereas 'average' returns (0-20%) only happen about a third of the time," Anderson wrote. Future uncertainty often brings a "sequence of returns risk" that's overlooked by early retirees.
Persons: , Brian Spinelli, Halbert Hargrove, Aaron Anderson, Spinelli, Stocks, Anderson, boomers Organizations: Service, Fidelity, Fisher Investments
The winners NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia (NVDA) year-to-date performance Nvidia came in No. META YTD mountain Meta Platforms (META) year-to-date performance Meta Platforms climbed 37.2% in the first quarter, coming in at second place within the portfolio. The laggards AAPL YTD mountain Apple (AAPL) year-to-date performance Apple suffered the most first-quarter losses in the portfolio, slumping 10.9% during the period. FL YTD mountain Foot Locker (FL) year-to-date performance Shares of Foot Locker declined 8.5% in the first quarter, making the sneaker retailer the second-worst-performing stock in the portfolio. PANW YTD mountain Palo Alto Networks (PANW) year-to-date performance Palo Alto Networks stock fell 3.7% during the first quarter, rounding out No.
Persons: Dow, chipmaker, It's, Instagram, Meta's, Jim Cramer, Walt Disney, Nelson Peltz, Jim, Peltz's Trian, Eli Lilly, LLY, Eli Lilly's, Apple, Locker's, Locker, Jim Cramer's, Jensen Huang, Ann Wang Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Facebook, Wall, DIS, Walt Disney, Peltz, Peltz's Trian Partners, Disney, U.S, Department of, Apple, Evercore ISI, Citigroup, Nike, Starbucks, Palo Alto Networks, Palo, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: China, Seattle, U.S, Palo, Taipei, Taiwan
Investors need to wait for a recession and accompanying rate cuts before putting more cash into stocks, Canaccord's Tony Dwyer says. Under such a scenario, the Fed would leave interest rates higher for longer to induce a downturn, then cut rates, Dwyer says. That's actually good news for investors, Dwyer said, as a downturn is the buying opportunity investors need to wait for:"You need to kill the zombie. A slowing economy could push the Fed to issue rate cuts — the monetary easing tool investors have been eagerly anticipating. Some Wall Street forecasters have warned interest rates could stay higher-for-longer as the Fed is looking to avoid a resurgence in inflation.
Persons: Canaccord's Tony Dwyer, Dwyer, , Tony Dwyer, Canaccord, that's, haven't, Russell Organizations: Service, CNBC, of Labor Statistics, New York Fed
The S&P 500 index rose 10.2% during the first three months of the year, its best first-quarter performance since 2019. The S&P 500 on Thursday logged its 22nd record-high close of the year. Companies in the S&P 500 saw earnings grow 4.3% during the fourth quarter of 2023 from the prior year, according to FactSet data. Analysts polled by FactSet expect S&P 500 earnings to grow by more than 10% for all of 2024. About 140,000 cars a day traversed the I-35W bridge that once stood more than 100 feet above the Mighty Mississippi.
Persons: Bell, Bitcoin, What’s, Leslie Thompson, Warren Buffett’s, Zachary Hill, , Elisabeth Buchwald, Samantha Delouya, Ron DeSantis, DeSantis, Disney’s, Bob Chapek, “ Don’t, ” Chapek, ” DeSantis, “ I’m, Read, Francis Scott Key, Alicia Wallace, ” Christopher Phelan, ” Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New, New York CNN, Traders, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Investment Research, Dow, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Spectrum Wealth Management, Companies, FactSet, Research, Horizon Investments, Disney, Central, Republican Gov, Central Florida Tourism, Twin, University of Minnesota, CNN Locations: New York, China, Florida, Central Florida, Central Florida Tourism District, Orlando, Baltimore, Minneapolis, Mississippi, Twin Cities, Mighty Mississippi, Minnesota
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by less than one basis point to 4.2415%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last at 4.6013% after rising by less than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday as investors considered the economic outlook and looked to fresh data. Investors looked to the latest data and remarks from Federal Reserve officials as they weighed the outlook for the economy. No key data is slated for Wednesday, but Fed Governor Christopher Waller is expected to give remarks later in the day.
Persons: Christopher Waller Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve
The Amazon Pharmacy home screen is displayed on a laptop in Brooklyn, New York, on Nov. 17, 2020. The e-commerce giant said on Tuesday that it's rolling out same-day delivery of prescription medications in New York City and the greater Los Angeles area. To speed up deliveries, Amazon said it's using new, smaller facilities, stocked with the most common prescription medications for acute conditions. San Bernardino, Riverside and Anaheim, which are all in the LA area, are eligible for same-day prescription deliveries starting Tuesday. In October, Amazon began offering same-day prescription medication delivery in Seattle, Miami, Indianapolis, Phoenix and Austin, Texas.
Persons: Doug Herrington Organizations: Amazon Pharmacy, Amazon, Worldwide Amazon Stores, Station , Locations: Brooklyn , New York, New York City, Los Angeles, Bernardino, Riverside, Anaheim, LA, Seattle , Miami, Indianapolis, Phoenix, Austin , Texas, Station, Station , Texas, New York
[About 70% of investors now think a rate cut will occur in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.] Goldman Sachs is currently predicting a 15% chance of recession over the next 12 months, down from 35% last year. Seeing that happen made us more confident that the Fed wouldn’t be forced to cause a recession in order to get inflation down. The reason we say 15% risk is because that is roughly the historical unconditional average. So a 15% recession rate is baseline for you, it will never go below that number?
Persons: Dow, Bell, David Mericle, Goldman Sachs, It’s, it’s, we’ve, I’m, Samantha Delouya, authority’s, ” United, Joe Biden Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Goldman Sachs ’, Bell, National Bureau of Economic, FAA, United, Federal Aviation Administration, United Airlines, United Boeing, , Federal Communications Commission, Program, Lawmakers, ACP, FCC Locations: New York, We’re, Medford , Oregon
The four-year total return for the S & P 500 since March 23, 2020, is just about 150%, or 25.7% annualized. .SPX mountain 2020-03-23 S & P 500 since the Covid low This is, of course, an idealized starting point from which to measure performance. While the S & P 500 bottomed at around a three-year low under 2,200, the index spent only a few weeks under 2,500. More qualitatively, it's a bull market, and in a bull market the overshoots occur to the upside, so a rally being "ahead of itself" is not fatal. And the S & P 500 is only 9% higher than it was more than two years ago, hardly reaching escape velocity from planet Sanity.
Persons: , Warren, Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, bullishness, Rocky White Organizations: HSBC, 3Fourteen, Bank of Japan, Fed, Ned Davis Research, Schaeffer's Investment Research, Intelligence, Bank of America
CNBC Daily Open: U.S. consumer sentiment stays steady
  + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Wall Street gainsU.S. stocks ended higher on Monday as investors look ahead to monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve. BYD push into emerging marketsChinese automaker BYD is aggressively expanding into emerging markets given policy uncertainty in the U.S. and Europe. They are really starting to become very creative in the AI world," he said of the company, known for its government contract work in defense and intelligence.
Persons: Jensen Huang, Blackwell, Amin Nasser, BYD, Brian Stutland, Palantir Organizations: CNBC, Wall Street, Federal Reserve, Dow, Nasdaq, Bank of, Equity, Investments Locations: Asia, San Jose, Aramco, Saudi Aramco, U.S, Europe, Thailand, Brazil, Indonesia, Hungary, Uzbekistan
Germany’s DAX added 0.1% to 17,959.35 and the FTSE 100 in London edged 0.1% higher to 7,731.73. Markets are awaiting a decision by the Bank of Japan on Tuesday on whether to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time in 17 years. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong edged 0.1% higher to 16,737.12, and the Shanghai Composite index gained 1% to 3,084.93. Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.1% higher to 7,675.80, and the Kospi in South Korea advanced 0.7%, to 2,685.84. A report on consumer prices last week showed inflation remains stubborn, ticking up to 3.2% in February from 3.1% in January.
Persons: Germany’s DAX, Australia’s Organizations: Japan’s, Federal Reserve, CAC, Dow Jones, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Honda Motor, Dongfeng Motor, Nasdaq, Software, Adobe, Microsoft, Broadcom, Google, University of Michigan, Fed, Traders, CME Group, New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent, U.S Locations: HONG KONG, London, Paris, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, China, South Korea, India, Bangkok, U.S
HONG KONG (AP) — Asian stocks advanced Monday ahead of policy decisions this week by Japan’s central bank and the Federal Reserve. Markets are awaiting a decision by the Bank of Japan on Tuesday on whether to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time in 17 years. A report on consumer prices last week showed inflation remains stubborn, ticking up to 3.2% in February from 3.1% in January. Another report on prices at the wholesale level also showed inflation remains hotter than Wall Street expected. The Fed's main rate remains at its highest level since 2001.
Persons: Australia’s Organizations: Japan’s, Federal Reserve, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Technology, Software, Adobe, Microsoft, Broadcom, Google, University of Michigan, Fed, Traders, CME Group, New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent, U.S Locations: HONG KONG, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, South Korea, India, Bangkok, U.S
The 2-year Treasury yield was last less than 1 basis point lower at 4.715%. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's March meeting, which could provide clues about the outlook for interest rates. The Fed is due to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday and will announce its latest interest rate decision and monetary policy guidance at the end of its meeting. Markets are widely expecting the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged. Fed policymakers have previously said that their decision-making regarding interest rates would be data-dependent and that they were still looking for more evidence that inflation is easing.
Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Traders, Bank of England
But critics of Family Dollar and other dollar store chains’ business practices like Hall-Harper say the closures highlight the risks of communities relying too heavily on dollar store chains. Hall-Harper has led Tulsa’s effort to restrict the growth of the three major dollar store chains — Family Dollar, Dollar Tree and Dollar General — in the predominately Black area of North Tulsa. Dollar General said it regularly hears from communities and customers asking it to bring a Dollar General store to their hometown. Backlash to dollar storesDollar General, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar have spread rapidly since the Great Recession, opening more than 15,000 small stores. US regulators reached a settlement last year with Dollar Tree over hazardous conditions in Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores.
Persons: Vanessa Hall, Harper, “ I’ve, , , Dollar, Critics, Blaine Griffin, Meijer, Stacy Mitchell, ” Mitchell Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, Dollar, Tulsa, Institute of Local, Chicago City, University of Toronto, UCLA, United States, Local, Research, University of Georgia, Cleveland City, Walmart, Target, Agriculture Department, Institute for Local, Federal Trade Commission, FTC, Kroger, Albertsons Locations: New York, Tulsa , Oklahoma, North Tulsa, Tulsa, Tulsa ; Cleveland ; New Orleans, Birmingham , Alabama, Fort Worth , Texas, Akron , Ohio, United, Cleveland, Chicago, Baltimore
The 2-year Treasury yield was last less than one basis point higher to 4.6936%. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Friday as investors considered the outlook for interest rates after inflation data released Thursday came in higher than expected. Investors assessed the path ahead for monetary policy after Thursday's inflation data came in hotter than expected, raising uncertainty about when interest rate cuts may begin. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, came in at 0.3%. Investors are, however, hoping for hints about the timeline for interest rate cuts, which Fed officials have so far given little indication about.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Investors, PPI, Federal
The S & P 500 and 30-stock Dow also were lower Friday, but have held up better than the Nasdaq for the week. Sector spotlight: There's a whole lot of red among S & P 500 sectors Friday. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Stocks, Dow, Jensen Huang, Jim, I've, Jensen, Jim Cramer's, Brendan McDermid Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Apple, Adobe, Energy, Valero Energy, Bank of America, Marathon Petroleum, Phillips, Coterra Energy, VanEck Semiconductor, Nvidia, Broadcom, tailwinds, Club, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Traders, New York Stock Exchange Locations: U.S, New York City
The S&P 500 declined 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1%. Turbulence for airline stocksAirline stocks have also been pummeled this week, as years of safety issues at Boeing continue to plague the industry. The NYSE Arca Global Airline index, which tracks the performance of major American and overseas airlines, is on track to end the week 2.2% lower. But Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, notes that the S&P 500 hasn’t seen a one-day decline of 2% or more since last February. AI up-and-comer Super Micro Computer will join the benchmark S&P 500 index on Monday.
Persons: New York CNN — Stocks, shrugged, Gold, Bitcoin, Dow, Price, , Ken Tjonasam, Max, Robert Jordan, Liz Young, Young, “ It’s, What’s, Jensen Huang Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow, Global, Airline, Boeing, Latam, Wall, Southwest Airlines, Airbus, “ Boeing, , JPMorgan Chase, NYSE Arca, Nvidia, Computer, Investors, Federal, Market Committee, Fed, National Association of Home Builders, Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors Locations: New York, Australia, New Zealand, Wells Fargo
EIU also expects the Bank of Japan will exit its negative interest rate policy in the second quarter. Markets currently expect the Fed to start with a 25-basis-point rate cut in June. Euro zoneThe European Central Bank last week also held its policy rate at a record high of 4%, signaling that it won't cut rates before June. JPMorgan said in a research note that the Turkish central bank may cut its policy rate in November and December, keeping its year-end policy rate forecast of 45%. IndonesiaIndonesia's central bank kept its benchmark policy rate at 6% in its recent meeting.
Persons: EIU, Jerome Powell, LSEG, Nomura, Perry Warjiyo, CNBC's JP Ong, BOK, Goldman Sachs, Goohoon Kwon, Kwon Organizations: Getty, Economist Intelligence Unit, Bank of Japan, United, United States U.S, Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Swiss National Bank, UBS, Bank of Canada, Bank of, JPMorgan, Reserve Bank of, ANZ, New Zealand Auckland Savings Bank, Bank, Bank Indonesia, BMI, Fitch Solutions, U.S, Oxford Economics, Macquarie Locations: Czech, China, Japan, United States, Switzerland Swiss, Bank of Canada, Turkey, Turkish, Reserve Bank of Australia, New, Indonesia, South Korea, Asia
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