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☆ Kevin McCarthy's impossible GOP math
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Stephen Collinson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Republican leader Kevin McCarthy is far from assured of winning sufficient support in his party to become House speaker next month. The tiny GOP House majority that takes over in January, after a disappointing midterm performance, would mean a fragile governing mandate for any party at any point in American history. McCarthy’s impossible mathFrom a broader political perspective, it might be in McCarthy’s interest to stand up to the most extreme members of his conference. The path to the GOP majority went through comparatively moderate seats in places like New York that will be most at risk in the 2024 election. But it also reflected Greene’s growing personal power, after she broke with some radical GOP members and lined up to support McCarthy’s speakership.

☆ Nobel awards to take place in Stockholm with full glitz and glamour
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NTB/Haakon Mosvold Larsen via REUTERSSTOCKHOLM, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Nobel laureates congregated in the Swedish capital Stockholm on Saturday for the first fully in-person award ceremonies complete with a formal banquet since the COVID-19 pandemic that curtailed events in the past two years. Five of the six Nobel prizes are awarded in Stockholm every year after a nomination process that is kept secret for the next 50 years. The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded in Oslo where separate festivities are held. The Nobel Foundation has also snubbed the ambassadors of Russia and Belarus, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Jailed Belarusian activist Ales Byalyatski, Russian rights group Memorial and Ukraine's Center for Civil Liberties won the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize.

☆ Markets shouldn't get caught up in recession fears, and the Fed's credibility is near an all-time high, Jefferies' chief market strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets shouldn't fixate on the potential for a recession, Jefferies' chief market strategist says. David Zervos pointed to strong economic data and anchored inflation expectations - a sign that the Fed has restored its credibility. The Fed probably needed to engineer a lot of this aggregate demand slowdown to anchor inflation expectations," Zervos said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday. But economic data remains strong, Zervos noted, which is buffering the shock of Fed rate hikes. "They've done it," Zervos said of the Fed anchoring the market's inflation expectations.

☆ Jamie Dimon sounds off on the economy, Fed, and crypto
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There are few top executives who draw as much attention and speak as freely as Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan. "Inflation is eroding everything…and that $1.5 trillion will run out sometime mid-year next year," Dimon said. Never one to mince words, Dimon then blasted the cryptocurrency sector when asked what he thought of the FTX collapse. Meanwhile, days after the EU's $60 per barrel price cap kicked in, oil prices slumped to levels not seen since before the invasion of Ukraine. There's been much debate about how the measure will alter oil prices moving forward — but PIMCO commodities strategist Greg Sharenow said it's going to come down to three factors.

☆ Euro zone economic growth revised up with household, business support
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BRUSSELS, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Euro zone gross domestic product (GDP) grew by slightly more than initially estimated, data from the European statistics agency Eurostat showed on Wednesday, with household spending and business investment propping up the economy. Eurostat said GDP growth in the third quarter was 0.3% in the 19-country euro area in the July-September period from the previous quarter and 2.3% year-on-year, above its flash estimates of 0.2% and 2.1% published in mid-November. Household spending added 0.4 percentage points to euro zone growth and gross fixed capital formation 0.8 points. The contribution from government expenditure was negligible, while trade was a net negative of 1.1 percentage points. Employment levels also expanded in the euro zone by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, the same pace as in the second quarter of 2022.

☆ SEC chief Gary Gensler says crypto platforms need to 'come into compliance' or face the regulator's wrath
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

SEC chair Gary Gensler says the agency has "enough authority" for a crypto regulatory crackdown. Gensler's comments come a month after the demise of once-$32 billion crypto exchange FTX. The regulator has "enough authority" for a crackdown in the space, Gensler said, adding that the SEC is "already suited up." Crypto exchange Coinbase faced legal threats from the regulator for its lending offering as well, leading it to scrap the effort. Gensler's comments come after the demise of FTX, the once-$32 billion crypto exchange started by Sam Bankman-Fried.

☆ Jamie Dimon sees the Fed hiking rates to the highest in 15 years, but warns that may still not be enough to tame inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that inflation is eroding everything even as consumer spending remains robust. He added that the Fed will have to raise rates to 5% and holding them there for three to six months, but that may not be sufficient. Geopolitical risks, too, threaten the US economy and could push rates higher, he said. He then sees the Fed holding rates at that level for about three to six months, but added, "That may not be sufficient." "Add to that by the way, a lot of emerging market countries that a lot of people don't focus on are going to pay a heavy price to the strong dollar, higher rates, and higher oil prices.

☆ Former RNC chair Michael Steele says MTG 'will be the most powerful speaker of the House' if McCarthy wins the speakership, arguing she'll be able to 'control what comes out of Kevin's mouth'
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-03 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Steele said MTG would be the "most powerful" speaker if McCarthy wins the House speakership in January. The ex-RNC chair said on MSNBC that the controversial MTG would constantly have the ear of McCarthy. Steele opined that MTG "will have the opportunity to control what comes out of Kevin's mouth." That small fraction of the party still has political, financial, and other sway and control over the leadership," Steele said. "Marjorie Taylor Greene will be the most powerful speaker of the House because she will have the opportunity to control what comes out of Kevin's mouth around the things that matter to that small cadre," he continued to say.

Helping to boost prices, U.S. crude oil stocks were expected to have dropped by about 7.9 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 25, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Gasoline inventories rose by about 2.9 million barrels, while distillate stocks were seen rising about 4.0 million barrels, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Thin liquidity and an overall lack of trading volumes towards the year-end could also be propping up the market, according to Virendra Chauhan at Energy Aspects. On the supply side, OPEC+ is likely to keep oil output policy unchanged at a meeting on Sunday, five OPEC+ sources said, although two sources said an additional production cut was also likely to be considered, to support prices. "Oil’s rally ran out of steam after reports that OPEC+ might end up keeping their output steady.

Some 83 percent of babies in the United States start out on breast milk, but by 6 months, just 56 percent are breastfed — and at that stage, only a quarter drink breast milk exclusively, as the American Academy of Pediatrics recommends. To find out what it takes to breastfeed a baby, The New York Times followed four mothers for a day as they nursed, pumped and supplemented their milk with formula. Dr. Ma returned to work four weeks after her oldest daughter’s birth and two weeks after her second arrived. While performing long operations, she leaked breast milk under her surgical gown. Now her hours are more reasonable, and she has an office with a door that locks — but Dr. Ma still feels relentless pressure to keep up.

☆ Global markets fall after protests erupt in China over Covid lockdowns
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-27 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Hong Kong CNN Business —Global markets fell on Monday after widespread protests in China against the country’s stringent Covid-19 restrictions roiled investor sentiment. The markets tumble comes after protests erupted across China in an unprecedented show of defiance against the country’s stringent and increasingly costly zero-Covid policy. US stock futures — an indication of how markets are likely to open — fell, with Dow futures down 0.3%, or 108 points. Oil prices dropped sharply, with investors concerned that surging Covid cases and protests in China may sap demand from one of the world’s largest oil consumers. US crude futures fell 2.7% to trade at $74.22 a barrel.

☆ EBRD warns of rise in 'zombie' firms if pandemic measures continue
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Jorgelina Do Rosario | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development urged governments in its region to rethink COVID-19 support measures for companies, warning that propping up "zombie" firms could have a knock-on effect on healthy businesses. However, ongoing support was no longer sustainable in a world of high interest rates, the EBRD said. Having zombie firms present in an economy creates negative spillovers for healthy firms, which see lower investment, revenue and employment, the EBRD warned. The problem is more present in economies dominated by government-run companies and banks, the EBRD found: 13% of state-owned enterprises in the 12-country sample used for the study could be classified as zombie firms, compared with 9% of privately-owned firms. The EBRD report also showed mixed progress on reforms by countries in six key areas, from competitiveness and resilience to the way they are governed.

☆ China's key money rate hits near 2-year low, but softening seen fleeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SHANGHAI, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Liquidity conditions in China's interbank money markets eased further on Tuesday, as cash supply far outpaced demand, despite a huge withdrawal of funds by the central bank. Traders said declines in interbank rates were largely due to looser cash conditions after financial institutions cut leverage this month. While most other major economies are raising interest rates to tame inflation, Beijing is focusing more on propping up a slowing economy by keeping money rates low. And many market participants had taken advantage of the low repo rates to fund leveraged trades in bonds, traders said. However, markets are divided whether the falls in the money rates would be sustainable.

☆ Nomura warns seven emerging economies face currency crisis danger
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Nomura has warned that seven countries - Egypt, Romania, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Czech Republic, Pakistan and Hungary - are now at a high risk of currency crises. Based on data from 61 different EM currency crises since 1996, Nomura estimates that a score above 100 indicates a 64% chance of a currency crisis in the following 12 months. Default-stricken Sri Lanka and currency crisis-regular Turkey both generate scores of 138, while the Czech Republic, Pakistan and Hungary notch 126, 120 and 100 respectively. Nomura also ran the Damocles model on the G7 group of leading economies, with the results showing that all but Japan now have Damocles scores above the 100 threshold, led by the United States and Britain. "It is somewhat surprising that there have not been more full-blown EM currency crises this year," Nomura added.

☆ BOJ inflation target to be scrutinised at government forum
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 14 (Reuters) - A government-affiliated think tank will host a forum next month to discuss the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target and the "challenges ahead", the organisation said on Monday. Participants include Columbia University professor Takatoshi Ito, who was a proponent of setting an inflation target when the BOJ had none until 2013, and University of Tokyo academic Tsutomu Watanabe, a former BOJ official known for his analyses on Japan's price trends. Three months later, Abe's hand-picked BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda deployed a massive asset-buying programme to meet his pledge of achieving 2% inflation in roughly two years. But stubbornly low inflation and a fragile economy forced the BOJ to maintain a massive stimulus until now, keeping Japan's central bank an outlier among global peers that have been tightening monetary policy to combat soaring inflation. With prolonged easing crushing bank profits and distorting the yield curve, some lawmakers have called for tweaking the joint statement and making the 2% inflation target a long-term goal with some room for flexibility.

☆ Analysis: European companies' robust Q3 makes timing the end of the bear market even harder
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Refinitiv data also shows analysts expect STOXX constituents to post quarterly earnings growth of 32.2% year on year, compared to just 4.3% for the benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) in the United States. Inflation has seen prices soar on the continent, but so far companies are showing they have been able to pass on rising costs. Of the 243 that have reported revenue, 80.7% beat analyst estimates, compared with 58% in an average quarter, according to Refinitiv. The STOXX technically entered a bear market in late September when it accumulated losses of more 20% from a January peak. “Our thesis at the moment is that we're not ready to say the bear market has finished.

☆ While some of Trump's picks lost or underperformed, Gov. Ron DeSantis dominated in Florida — heating up talks about who the GOP nominee should be in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Kelsey Vlamis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

After the GOP underperformed, some Republicans are saying it's time to move on from Trump. Ron DeSantis handily won reelection in a state that has long been considered a swing state, defeating Democrat Charlie Crist with a roughly 20-point lead as of Wednesday. The drastic difference has already led Republicans to turn to DeSantis for 2024 hopes, a prospect that now seems all the more likely. But one of the biggest blows to the GOP, and Trump, came in Pennsylvania, where Lt. Gov. Some were already propping up DeSantis as the best choice for the 2024 Republican presidential nominee.

☆ Dollar gains as traders gird for higher U.S. rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar initially fell on hints in the Fed's statement of smaller hikes ahead, but it was bid after Powell's hawkish stance about the trajectory rates. The Australian dollar fell 0.7% overnight and slipped further to a week-low of $0.6332 on Thursday. "This shall further embolden expectations of policy divergence with a much hawkish Fed relative to other central banks around the world. Japan's yen was notably firm in the face of dollar gains, and has held at 147.90 per dollar, prompting speculation of possible help from official intervention. China's yuan was hovering near record lows in offshore trade at 7.3408 per dollar, and other Asian currencies were under pressure.

☆ Boeing forecasts jump in aircraft deliveries, up to $5 billion in free cash flow next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Leslie Josephs | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

An aerial view of the engines and fuselage of an unpainted Boeing 737 MAX airplane parked in storage at King County International Airport-Boeing Field in Seattle, Washington, June 1, 2022. Boeing is planning to ramp up production and deliveries of new aircraft, propping up its forecast for higher cash in 2023, it said Wednesday. Supply chain problems and labor shortages have stymied output and deliveries of new planes, Boeing and Airbus said last week. Boeing forecast free cash flow of between $3 billion and $5 billion next year, below the $6.53 billion analysts polled by FactSet expected, but above the $1.5 billion to $2 billion in free cash it expects to generate this year. Deliveries are important to aircraft manufacturers because it's when airlines or other customers pay the bulk of the sale.

☆ Markets need to price in the extremely elevated risk of a recession before a sustainable rally can take shape, JPMorgan strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Risks of a recession are "extremely elevated" JPMorgan strategist Gabriela Santos said, warning a downturn could come mid-2023. The odds of a recession are at 50% today, compared to normal levels of 15%, she told CNBC. Santos added those risks needed to be priced into the market before a sustainable rally could take place. Though a soft landing is still possible, she put the odds of a recession at 50% today, compared to normal levels of 15%. "We would still put the odds at over the next 12 months as extremely elevated versus what's normal," Santos said on Tuesday in an interview with CNBC.

☆ Japan’s Monthly Bill for Propping Up the Yen Comes to $43 Billion
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Megumi Fujikawa | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki previously said the government was buying yen to prevent the currency from falling. TOKYO—Japan spent more than $40 billion in October to prop up the yen, an effort that has had some success but remains hampered by Washington’s lack of interest in stemming the dollar’s rise. The Ministry of Finance said the government spent ¥6.35 trillion in October on intervention, equivalent to $42.8 billion. The figure came on top of the ¥2.8 trillion it spent in September.

China remains integral in the success or failure of U.S. corn, soy and other agricultural exports, and corn is currently carrying the biggest burden of proof. Although recent U.S. soy sales to China have weakened, the top buyer has been propping up the numbers by comparison. CORN AND OTHER GRAINAt just 14.1 million tonnes, U.S. corn sales as of Oct. 20 are dismal compared with recent years and expectations. Chinese purchases of 3.6 million tonnes are down from 11.9 million and 10.6 million tonnes by the same date in 2021 and 2020, respectively. Export sales as of Oct. 20 totaled 11.8 million tonnes, the lowest in more than 20 years.

☆ Exclusive: China FX regulator surveys banks about positioning as yuan plunges
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The FX regulator asked (us) about our market views and our positioning," said one of the sources. Two of the sources said the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) made it clear the survey was urgent. "Foreign exchange reserves are at a critical level, and some market participants are betting that the authorities will eventually intervene." China's foreign exchange reserves now stand at just above the closely watched $3 trillion level. "China is likely to protect the reserves this time round as the Congress emphasizes that foreign exchange reserves are an indicator of comprehensive national strength," said ANZ's Xing.

☆ EXCLUSIVE China FX regulator surveys banks about positioning as yuan plunges - sources
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Breakingviews: Bailey outburst blunts BoE crisis-fighting tools
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Neil Unmack | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Oct 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Andrew Bailey is in danger of blunting the Bank of England’s crisis tools. The UK central bank governor on Tuesday vowed to end emergency bond-buying that has been propping up pension funds, even as investors increasingly assumed the scheme might get extended. Indeed, 30-year bond yields have risen further on Wednesday. CONTEXT NEWSBank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated in a speech on Oct. 11 that the bank planned to its cease its emergency government bond purchases on Oct. 14. The BoE announced a 65 billion pound government bond purchase scheme on Sept. 28 to help indebted pension funds facing margin calls avoid being forced to sell gilts.

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