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☆ Fmr. Council of Economic Advisors Chair Jason Furman breaks down his op-ed's call for a more hawkish Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFmr. Council of Economic Advisors Chair Jason Furman breaks down his op-ed's call for a more hawkish FedJason Furman, fmr. Council of Economic Advisors chair, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss his reasoning for the Fed to go faster and higher with its rate hikes.

☆ Bitcoin falls to its lowest price in weeks as crypto markets tumble amid Silvergate troubles
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The price of bitcoin hit a two-week low as the industry's crucial banking partner faces financial troubles. Silvergate has experienced a steep downtrend in deposits, along with a 95% plunge in share price over the past year. The price of bitcoin hit a two-week low early Friday and experienced its largest one-hour price drop since the blowup of bankrupt exchange FTX in November. Many large digital asset exchanges work with Silvergate for transactions between entities, and a dent in those relationships could impact industry liquidity. Silvergate was entangled in a number of ailing firms such as FTX, resulting in a massive decline in deposits at the bank amid broader crypto market contagion.

☆ Morgan Stanley's chief stock strategist warns that the 2023 rally is a 'bull trap' and pain is coming for investors in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The rally in stocks is a "bull trap" and investors have more pain coming, Morgan Stanley warned. The downside could come as soon as March, as the S&P 500 is at a critical testing point. "With the equity market showing signs of exhaustion after the last Fed meeting, the S&P 500 is at critical technical support. "Ultimately, we think this rally is a bull trap," the note later added. Bottom line, the US Dollar and rates could determine the short term path of stock prices while earnings will ultimately tell us if this is a new bull market or bull trap," strategists warned.

☆ Gold faces worst month in nearly two years on U.S. rate-hike dread
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices eased on Tuesday and were headed for their biggest monthly loss since June 2021 as impending interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve sapped the non-yielding asset's appeal. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,816.19 per ounce as of 0317 GMT, after hitting a two-month low on Monday. "The question is still, 'How much more to hawkish Fed repricing?' "A pause in hawkish Fed repricing could see USD momentum ease and that can provide support to gold." Markets expect the Fed's target rate to peak at 5.403% in September.

Losses were limited by oil supply concerns after Russia halted exports to Poland via a key pipeline. That positive economic data helped global stock markets to rebound, yet shares remained near six-week lows as investors braced for interest rate hikes in the United States and Europe. Adding to global oil demand worries, rising Sino-U.S. tensions hammered equity markets in China and Hong Kong while investors awaited policy signals from the upcoming National People's Congress. On Monday, Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft said it started pumping oil from Kazakhstan to Germany via Poland through the Druzhba pipeline, while halting deliveries to Poland. Russia announced plans this month to cut oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March versus February, exceeding previously mooted production cuts of 5%.

☆ Oil slips as dollar firms, Russia pipeline halt limits slide
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Meanwhile, Russia halted supplies of oil to Poland via the Druzhba pipeline, Polish refiner PKN Orlen (PKN.WA) said on Saturday, a day after Poland said it had delivered its first Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Russian pipeline operator Transneft blamed the halt on a lack of completed paperwork for supplies for the second half of February. Russia announced plans earlier this month to cut oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March versus February, exceeding its previously mooted production cuts of 5%. "Russian oil output has exceeded expectations in recent months due to lax EU/US sanctions," Bank of America said in a note. Adding some downside pressure, U.S. crude oil inventories surged to the highest level since May 2021 last week, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed.

☆ Oil lower on firm dollar, market shrugs off Russian supply cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Oil storage tanks stand at the RN-Tuapsinsky refinery, operated by Rosneft Oil Co., at night in Tuapse, Russia. Oil prices inched lower in volatile trade on Monday, as a stronger dollar and fears of recession risks offset gains arising from Russia's plans to deepen oil supply cuts. A firm dollar makes commodities priced in the U.S. currency more expensive for holders of other currencies. Adding to the downside pressure, U.S. crude oil inventories surged to the highest level since May 2021 last week, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. Oil prices have fallen by about a sixth in the year since Feb. 24, 2022, when Russian troops first marched into Ukraine.

☆ The stock market's euphoric rally has been a head fake, Wall Street's top strategists warn
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The year-to-date rally can't last, according to Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. He added: "This is a perfect analogy for where equity investors find themselves today, and quite frankly, where they've been many times over the past decade." Goldman Sachs' chief US equity strategist David Kostin has said he is also skeptical of the market's gains so far in 2023. Meanwhile, JPMorgan's top stock strategist Marko Kolanovic, a long-time equities bull, says investors should ditch stocks because a recession is coming.

☆ Investors should pile into short-term bonds as markets wake up to the reality that the Fed is going to stay aggressive, BlackRock says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors may want to look to short-term bonds as stocks sell off amid fears of a hawkish Fed, per BlackRock. US 2-year treasury yields jumped near 15-year highs this week as equities retreated. Traders are assessing hotter-than-expected Core PCE data released on Friday. US 2-year Treasury yield jumped near 15-year highs of 4.9% this week as investors placed bets on more rate hikes by the Fed. Core PCE increased 0.6% from a month earlier, the most since June.

☆ US stocks fall after new inflation data boosts outlook the Fed will stay aggressive
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks slid on Friday after key inflation data came in hotter than expected. Core PCE, the central bank's preferred inflation measure, rose 0.6% in January, higher than economists' estimates. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure data, the central bank's preferred inflation measure, increased 0.6% from a month earlier, higher than economists' estimates and the most since June. Treasury yields jumped, with the two-year yield hitting 4.79%, its highest level since 2007. Tesla boss Elon Musk reiterated his view that the central bank's tightening could crush the value of the entire stock market.

☆ Indian shares fall on rate-hike worries ahead of Fed, RBI minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Bharath Rajeswaran | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Nifty 50 index (.NSEI) was down 0.86% at 17,674.50, while the S&P BSE Sensex (.BSESN) fell 0.85% at 60,150.93 as of 10:34 a.m. IST. Both the Fed and the Reserve Bank of India were due to release minutes of their latest policy meetings, giving investors a glimpse of their thinking on future rate-hike trajectories. "Fear of a hawkish Fed has gripped markets and kept investors on tenterhooks." Global markets fell after an unexpectedly strong reading of S&P Global's composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) showed that the U.S. economy was not cooling. ($1 = 82.8330 Indian rupees)Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman, Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ These high-dividend stocks are expected to rally, with analysts giving one 60% upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

High-yielding stocks are back in the spotlight as volatility persists, inflation remains hot and Treasury yields continue to rise. Canadian firm Pembina Pipeline Corporation , as well as EOG Resources, offered high dividend yields at nearly 7% and almost 6% respectively. Both are also expected to have high earnings growth ahead, with forecasts of 146% for Pembina and 62% for EOG. Analysts also give EOG average potential upside of nearly 32%. Hong Kong-listed shipping logistics firm SITC International Holdings also had a notably high dividend yield of 8.5% and nearly 60% potential upside.

☆ Oil rises on China demand hopes, concerns on supply outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Emily Chow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday amid optimism over China's demand recovery, concerns that underinvestment will crimp future oil supply and as major producers keep output limits in place. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for March, which expires on Tuesday, was at $76.78 a barrel, up 44 cents or 0.6%. Russia plans to cut oil production by 500,000 bpd, or around 5% of output, in March after the West imposed price caps on Russian oil and oil products. China is the world's largest crude oil importer. Prices will move higher "as the market pivots back to deficit with underinvestment, shale constraints and OPEC discipline ensuring supply does not meet demand," they wrote.

☆ A former BlackRock stock chief says he thinks the S&P 500 will fall another 17% as investors ignore a growing mountain of tell-tale recession signals
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Doll says the S&P 500 will drop to 3,400 if a mild recession unfolds. If a more normal recession (more severe than a mild downturn) comes, Doll said the index could fall to 3,000. The Fed's recession probability tracker based on the yield curve also now puts the odds of a recession at 57%. Subramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall as low as 3,000, a view shared by Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. If trouble hits, like Doll and much of Wall Street expects, stocks could extend their fall to new lows.

☆ Top 10 things to watch in the stock market Friday: Market slide, optimism on Club stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Deere (DE) posts a big earnings beat: $6.55 per share for fiscal 2023 first quarter, beating estimates of $5.53. Roku (ROKU) double upgraded at Bank of America to buy, price target to $85 per share. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee poised to weaken after dollar jump on hawkish Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Feb 17 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open lower against the U.S. currency on Friday, following a surge on the dollar index after two Federal Reserve officials said they preferred bigger rate increases to tackle inflation. Non-deliverable forwards indicated the rupee will open at 82.80-82.85 to the dollar, compared with 82.7175 in the previous session. The dollar index was up at 104.26, while the Korean won tumbled 1%, dragging Asian currencies lower. Futures are now pricing a Fed terminal rate of near 5.30% and about 30 bps of rate cuts from July to December this year. "Hopes of an early Fed pivot have vanished," DBS Group Research said in a note to clients on Friday.

☆ US stocks end mixed as Fed officials sound off on inflation fight and path of future rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks closed mixed as top Fed officials weighed in on what it will take to rein in inflation. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said he supports raising rates in 25 basis-point increments. Elsewhere, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said inflation remains "much too high" and that the central bank should continue raising rates. On Thursday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said delivering another rate increase will "lock in" easing inflation, while Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she had seen a "compelling economic case" for delivering another half-point hike in the fed funds rate at the previous central bank meeting. For oil, "one major upside risk to prices remains China and its recovery from the transition to living with COVID.

☆ The week in inflation: Data signals higher prices, possibly more aggressive Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

A week's worth of surprising economic data sent a pretty strong message to the market: Inflation that is higher than anticipated is likely to translate into higher interest rates as well. "We are listening to the signal from January inflation data, which suggest the disinflation process may be more prolonged than we previously believed," wrote Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. The data surprises began two weeks ago when nonfarm payrolls surged by a stunning 517,000 in January , raising concerns that a resilient labor market could drive wages, and inflation, higher. The consumer price index , a closely watched inflation metric, jumped 0.5% in January, a bit more than expected. Futures pricing points to a peak, or "terminal," rate of 5.23%, according to the August 2023 fed funds futures contract.

☆ Gold firms in run-up to U.S. inflation reading
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Meat bans, soaring gold prices and Britain voting to 'un–Brexit' could be on the cards for 2023, according to Saxo's Outrageous Predictions. Gold prices rose on Tuesday as the dollar retreated, with investors bracing for U.S. inflation data that could determine the Federal Reserve's next moves in its monetary policy plans. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,857.22 per ounce, as of 0305 GMT, after falling to its lowest since early January in the previous session. Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Several Fed policymakers have recently signaled that more interest rate hikes were needed to bring inflation down to its 2% target.

☆ Morgan Stanley's stock chief says a signal that flashed before the 2000, 2008, and 2020 market crashes is once again glaring red — and that big declines are still ahead for the S&P 500
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Forward earnings growth is now negative, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson points out. In a February 6 note to clients, Morgan Stanley's Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson reiterated his call that the S&P 500 hasn't seen a bottom yet. Wilson highlights this pattern in the chart below, showing forward EPS growth (yellow line) alongside S&P 500 price action (blue line). "History shows price downside is in front of us, not behind us," the chart's title reads. Morgan StanleyWilson said in December that he sees the S&P 500 bottoming between 3,000-3,300 in the first quarter before recovering to 3,900 later this year.

☆ Asia stocks head for second weekly loss as Fed rate worries flare
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Asia-Pacific stocks fell on Friday, slumping toward a second weekly loss as investors fretted about the potential for further Federal Reserve tightening and the effect on the U.S. economy. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) sank 0.54% and was on course for a 1% weekly decline, after losing 1.16% in the previous week. "If rates go past that five, five-and-a-quarter percent range that the Fed has previously indicated, markets are definitely not priced for that - absolutely not." The 10-year yield edged down to around 3.67% after bumping around 3.96% mid-week, also the highest since Jan. 6. Brent crude futures fell 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $84.22 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 35 cents, or 0.5%, to $77.71.

Consumer price inflation in January is expected to have risen 0.7% on the month and at an annual rate of 2.2%, up from 0.0% and 1.8%, respectively, as the economy picks up following its COVID-19 pandemic paralysis. chartOn its own, economic re-opening will likely accelerate growth and inflation this year. Deteriorating Sino-U.S. relations could encourage some investors and businesses to rethink their exposure to China, potentially affecting Chinese assets and rippling through to others, like European equities and U.S. Treasuries. Risk assets are repricing accordingly. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- China CPI and PPI inflation (January)- Japan goods price inflation (January)- India industrial production (December)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Hawkish Fed shifting to data dependency is positive for the market, says Requisite's Bryn Talkington
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHawkish Fed shifting to data dependency is positive for the market, says Requisite's Bryn TalkingtonBryn Talkington, Requisite Capital Management, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss markets, the Fed and positioning in a bear market rally.

MUMBAI, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to decline against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, weighed by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and higher oil prices. The non-deliverable forwards indicated the rupee would open around 82.60-82.62 per dollar, compared with the 82.4925 closing in the previous session. Fed officials on Wednesday said more interest rate rises are on the cards in the central bank's efforts to bring down inflation. Moving to a rate of between 5.00% and 5.25% "seems a very reasonable view," New York Fed President John Williams said. Fed fund futures are pricing in rate cuts of about 30 to 35 basis points after peaking at around 5.12% in July.

☆ European shares hit fresh nine-month high on earnings boost
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Ankika Biswas | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) was up 0.8% at 0920 GMT, extending gains for a third straight session. Shares of Sweco AB (SWECb.ST), a Swedish construction and engineering company, jumped 11% to top the STOXX 600 following its upbeat fourth-quarter earnings. An over 5% gain in AstraZeneca (AZN.L) on 2023 earnings and revenue growth forecast boosted the healthcare sub-index (.SXDP). Of the 93 STOXX 600 companies that have reported earnings so far, more than half have beaten market expectations, Refinitiv data showed on Tuesday. Signs of economic resilience and better-than-feared corporate earnings have helped European stocks outperform their U.S. counterparts so far this year.

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